地缘局势稳定性

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山海:黄金大趋势方向不变,但中期调整力度在延续!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-20 03:13
Market Overview - The market is currently focused on two main aspects: the stability of geopolitical situations following US-Russia talks and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The outcome of the US-Russia talks remains unclear, which may reduce market demand for gold as a safe haven [1] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has broken below the key support level of 3330, indicating a shift to a bearish trend [2][3] - The current support levels for gold are identified at 3300 and 3280, with 3300 being a trendline support and 3280 being the lower Bollinger Band support [2] - If gold maintains above these support levels, there may still be potential for a bullish reversal [2] Silver Market Analysis - Silver has also transitioned from a strong consolidation phase to a bearish trend, with a recent close below 37.5 [3][4] - The next support level for silver is at 36.5, and the overall long-term trend remains bullish despite the current adjustments [3] Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold contract closed around 773, indicating limited downside potential in the short term [3] - The domestic silver market has shown a significant decline, with the Shanghai silver contract reaching a low of 9050 [4] Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has seen a contract change to oilV25, with a current close around 62, and a critical support level at 61.2 [4] - If oil prices remain above 61.2, there is potential for a rebound, while a break below this level could lead to further bearish trends [4] Fuel Market Insights - The domestic fuel market has experienced a slow decline without significant momentum, closing around 2710 [4] - There is a need to observe if the market can establish a bottom and regain levels above 2800 for potential upward movement [4]