Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The core logic of the current gold market is influenced by President Trump's increasing interference with the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which drives funds towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The upcoming U.S. July PCE inflation data is crucial; if inflation exceeds expectations, it may limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates, potentially putting pressure on gold prices [2] - Technically, gold prices are currently above the 100-day EMA, indicating a strong bullish foundation; the RSI is at 56.8, suggesting a neutral to strong market without severe overbought risks [2] Group 2: Key Price Levels for Gold - Key resistance for gold is identified in the $3400–$3410 range, which is a psychological barrier and coincides with the upper Bollinger Band and the August 8 high; a sustained position above this range could lead to a test of $3439 and potentially $3500 [2] - On the downside, $3325 is a significant support level; if breached, it may lead to testing the $3200 range, which has dual support from the Bollinger Band lower track and a psychological level [3] - A suggested entry point for gold is in the $3373–$3371 range, with a stop-loss at $3360 to allow for some volatility [5] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - The recent U.S. tariff increase on Indian imports, particularly targeting Russian oil, reflects the tight linkage between geopolitical events and the energy market, impacting oil prices [6] - Oil prices are currently finding support around $63, but face resistance in the $65–$66 range, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [6] - Technical indicators show a lack of clear direction in the oil market, with the MACD momentum narrowing and RSI remaining neutral, suggesting a potential for range-bound trading until more fundamental news emerges [7] Group 4: Future Outlook for Oil - If oil prices can break above $66, there is a possibility of testing the $68 level; conversely, if the $63 support fails, prices may revisit the $60 mark [7] - The U.S. tariff policy may not significantly alter India's procurement of Russian oil due to cost considerations, indicating that geopolitical factors will continue to influence market dynamics [9] - The market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by geopolitical conflicts and the evolving energy cooperation between Russia and India, with a focus on India's future energy independence [9]

Group 1 - Brent crude oil futures rose by 2 cents to $67.24 per barrel, while WTI futures remained unchanged at $63.25, following a decline of over 2% for both contracts on Tuesday, ending a two-week upward trend [1][3] - The U.S. government has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50%, marking one of the highest trade restrictions in recent years [1][3] - President Trump stated that this action is a response to India's increased purchases of discounted Russian crude oil, with India being the third-largest crude oil consumer globally [3] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains tense as investors worry that the U.S. tariffs may impact India's crude oil imports and refining patterns [3] - Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum have resumed their procurement plans for September to October, indicating that the decision to continue purchasing Russian crude will depend on price economics [3][7] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also affecting global energy supply and demand, with recent attacks in Ukraine damaging Russian refineries and forcing them to export more crude oil to international markets [3] Group 3 - WTI crude oil is showing a phase of support around $63, while there is significant pressure in the $65 to $66 range, indicating a lack of clear market direction [4] - A breakout above $66 could lead to a further rise towards $68, while a drop below $63 may test the $60 level again, suggesting a range-bound market awaiting further fundamental guidance [5] - The interplay between U.S. tariff policies and India's crude oil procurement behavior highlights the high interconnectivity of geopolitics and the energy market [7]