Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint LPG prices are still driven by geopolitical factors. The ongoing conflict has led to high oil prices and a reduction in LPG production. Although the current PDH operation is okay, the lack of raw materials poses a potential risk. The market is currently focused on the possibility of negotiations between the two parties. The trading strategy is to hold long positions with a bullish bias [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil and Gas Market - The freight rate for shipping Saudi crude oil from the Red Sea to Asia by shipowners has plummeted in the past few weeks due to more tankers flocking to Yanbu Port to carry oil diverted from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - US President Trump said that after what he called a "fruitful dialogue" between the US and Iran, the US will postpone the strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, which has caused confusion about the participants in the dialogue and the specific scope of the agreement [3]. - The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have taken steps to intervene in the Iranian war, which may mean an escalation of the conflict [3]. - A Chinese fuel tanker has sailed out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on a route previously used by other ships with Iran's approval [3]. 3.2 Spot Overview - **Shandong Region**: The estimated price of civil LPG in Shandong is 6,560 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 10 yuan/ton. The market had a smooth sales volume and premium performance yesterday, but the market's upward momentum decreased after the early morning plunge in crude oil prices. Due to the tight supply-demand fundamentals, the mainstream prices remained stable with sporadic small increases today. The ether post - market in Shandong was generally stable with sporadic price changes, and the overall trading atmosphere was okay. Although the short - term decline in crude oil prices was a constraint, the low - supply expectations inside and outside the region still exist. Each manufacturer's shipments and inventory are controllable, and they are holding prices and waiting. It is expected that the ether post - market in Shandong will remain generally stable and sporadically try to increase prices tomorrow [5]. - **East China Region**: The mainstream transaction price of imported LPG in East China is 7,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Today, the mainstream price of imported LPG in the East China market is between 7,350 - 7,800 yuan/ton. With limited future arrivals, terminals are reluctant to sell, and importers have a firm attitude. Although the decline in crude oil prices affects market sentiment, most terminals have low inventories, and domestic gas prices are strong. Today, the imported LPG in East China remained generally stable with individual increases [5]. - **South China Region**: The average transaction price of domestic LPG in South China is 7,105 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 25 yuan/ton; the average price of imported LPG is 7,300 yuan/ton, remaining stable from yesterday. Today, the South China market was generally stable with sporadic adjustments. Some low - priced areas still had price increases, while high - priced resources gradually stabilized, and some even showed signs of weakening. As prices are at a high level, the decline in international oil prices affects sentiment, and downstream inventory levels are high, the market's trading atmosphere has become weaker, and industry players are mostly on the sidelines. However, due to concerns about the supply side in the volatile situation, it is expected that prices will remain at a high level in the short term [6]. - **North China Region**: The benchmark price of civil LPG in North China is 6,288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Today, the North China market was generally stable with individual price drops. Downstream buyers entered the market cautiously, and production and sales were controllable [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - High - sulfur fuel oil spot window trading volume decreased compared to last week but remained active. High inventories in Singapore pressured the spot premium to decline slightly, while high - sulfur cracking was supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premium fluctuated, with supply continuously increasing and downstream demand remaining weak. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances, and consider going long on the FU9 - 1 calendar spread when the price is low [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - High - sulfur fuel oil: Spot window trading volume decreased week - on - week but remained active. High inventories in Singapore pressured the spot premium to decline slightly. Geopolitical factors and peak - season power generation demand supported high - sulfur cracking. Supply was affected by the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of the US - Iran - Israel conflict, while demand was supported by seasonal power generation needs in regions like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Spot premium fluctuated. Supply continued to increase, and downstream demand was weak. Supply sources included Nigeria, South Sudan, and Al - Zour refinery, and the Chinese market had sufficient supply and stable demand [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - Single - sided: Stay on the sidelines and pay attention to geopolitical and macro - level disturbances. - Arbitrage: Go long on the FU9 - 1 calendar spread when the price is low. - Options: No recommendation [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - side Factors - Russia - Ukraine conflict: The conflict intensified, with attacks on energy facilities. EU sanctions were strengthened, and Russia's refinery offline capacity in June increased by 21% to 3.2 million tons. High - sulfur fuel oil exports in the week of June 12 were at a low level, 267,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [6] - Mexico: High - sulfur supply returned to the level before the Olmeca refinery's operation. In June, high - sulfur exports were around the average level. In May, total high - sulfur exports were 730,000 tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons (- 11%) month - on - month and 290,000 tons (- 28%) year - on - year [9] - US - Iran - Israel conflict: The conflict intensified, affecting export supply. Middle - East high - sulfur exports decreased in May, and Iran's high - sulfur exports were at a low level [12] 3.2.2 Demand - side Factors - High - sulfur power generation demand peak season: Egypt's summer power generation demand was supported by fuel oil imports. South Asia's power generation demand peak was in the second - quarter summer. Middle - East high - sulfur power generation demand increased in advance [19] - China, India, and UAE: China's refinery procurement willingness decreased recently, while India's and UAE's feedstock demand increased [22] - High - sulfur marine fuel demand: Demand was stably supported, and the marginal increase came from the stable growth in the number of ships equipped with desulfurization towers [23] 3.2.3 Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - South Sudan: External raw material supply recovered, and export tenders continued [26] - Al - Zour refinery: Exports remained at a high level, and supply to the pan - Singapore area increased month - on - month [27] - Nigeria: Near - term low - sulfur supply was abundant, all directed towards Singapore [30] - China: The domestic low - sulfur market had stable production, and the planned production in June was expected to increase [36] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Price and Spread Data - Fuel oil spot prices, high - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - period spreads, low - sulfur fuel oil cross - region and cross - variety spreads, natural gas - fuel oil price ratios, cross - region freight rates, and Singapore bunkering spreads were presented in graphical forms [41][47][53] 3.3.2 Inventory Data - Singapore's on - shore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.0% week - on - week to 3.734 million tons. ARA region's fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.9% week - on - week, diesel inventory increased by 0.9%, and gasoline inventory decreased by 5.7%. US Gulf fuel oil inventory decreased by 11.5% week - on - week. Middle - East fuel oil inventory increased by 21.0% week - on - week. Japan's total fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.2% week - on - week [67] 3.3.3 Terminal Sales Data - In May, Singapore's marine fuel sales volume was 4.878 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 474,000 tons (+ 10.8%) and a year - on - year increase of 51,000 tons (+ 1.1%). High - sulfur marine fuel sales volume was 1.934 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons (+ 11.6%) and a year - on - year increase of 191,000 tons (+ 10.9%), accounting for 39.6% of total marine fuel sales. Low - sulfur marine fuel sales volume was 2.551 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [74]