燃料油日报 | 2025-08-27 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 低硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 地缘不确定性仍存，盘面震荡运行 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.07%，报2880元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.23%，报3529 元/吨。 俄乌和谈实质性进展有限，叠加上周鲍威尔释放的一些偏鸽信号，油市短期情绪走强，并带动能源板块商品反弹。 考虑到地缘与宏观的不确定性以及原油平衡表未来转松的预期，油价上方空间或有限。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫燃料油处于结构调整与市场再平衡的阶段，前期供应压力有所缓和，但上行驱动 仍不明显。在发电终端消费旺季结束后，市场还将面临中东燃料油出口增加的压力。此外，由于对交割资源受阻、 仓单压力缓和的预期，上周五以来FU估值明显修复，盘面结构走强。但昨日有2.66万吨新仓单注册，内外盘价差 与月差从低位反弹后依然面临阻力。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，国产量维持低位，海外供应有再度收紧的态势，外盘月差结构小幅走强。 中期视角下，低硫燃料油依然面临需求份额被替代、剩 ...

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-26 仓单压力边际缓和，FU盘面结构走强 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨5.06%，报2907元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.7%，报3526 元/吨。 在经历连续下跌后，原油价格出现企稳反弹迹象，燃料油成本端支撑再度增强，但油市中期依然面临下行压力， 需要保持谨慎。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，经历了近期基本面转弱与连续调整的阶段，外盘高硫燃料油市场结构已经有一定企稳 迹象。其中，中东与新加坡燃料油库存出现阶段性回落，西区套利船货量下降，亚太地区供应压力边际缓和。更 显著的变量在于，前期内盘FU受到潜在交割资源压制，对外盘价差收缩至极低位。上周美国对部分码头和仓储运 营商实施制裁，或导致高硫燃料油到港与交割受阻，周五开始FU内外价差大幅反弹，昨日延续强势，涨幅远超能 源板块其他品种。接下来如果油价持续反弹，FU在板块中表现或相对偏强。 策略 高硫方面：短期震荡偏强，中期面临原油端压制 低硫方面：短期震荡，中期面临原油端压制 跨品种：无 跨期：FU逢低正套（FU2510-2511） 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观风险、关税风险、制裁风险、原油价格大幅波动 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （8.18-8.22） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构继续走弱，高硫燃料油市场仍有压力。具体来看：受短期内套利船货供 应充裕担忧及需求疲软影响，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构进一步走弱。尽管东西方套利经济性仍不可行，但8月 预计新加坡将接收来自西方的约280-290万吨的低硫燃料油套利货量，高于7月的230-240万吨。不过交易商预计 随着市场转向9月下半月船货交易，低硫燃料油市场基本面将逐步企稳。 高硫方面，尽管船期紧张支撑下游船加油市场需求，但交易商担心中东夏季高峰过后发电需求下滑可能加 剧新加坡地区的供应压力。当前新加坡高硫燃料油在浮仓及固 ...

Group 1 - The domestic energy chemical market showed mixed performance on August 22, with fuel oil futures experiencing fluctuations, opening at 2723.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 2808.00 CNY before closing with a gain of 2.10% [1] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to ample supply and competitive pricing, leading to a decline in spot premiums to a four-month low, while high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by stable downstream demand despite concerns over seasonal demand decline [1] - New Singapore region inventories are expected to accumulate significantly in August due to the arrival of Western arbitrage cargoes, with more low-sulfur blending components anticipated to flow into the Asian market from the Suez region [1] Group 2 - The international crude oil market is experiencing a range-bound movement this week, with supply and demand dynamics providing some support, while the domestic heavy oil market stabilizes after recent gains, with cautious trading sentiment [2] - The trading range for fuel oil futures is noted to be between 2730-2780 CNY for FU2510 and 3430-3480 CNY for LU2511, indicating a cautious approach from market participants [2]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面跟随原油小幅反弹，短期不确定性仍存 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.15%，报2732元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨1.19%，报3483 元/吨。 在经历连续下跌后，原油价格出现企稳反弹迹象，并带动FU、LU盘面小幅上涨。短期需要关注俄美乌之间会谈的 进展，美国对俄罗斯制裁的态度变化将影响市场情绪，带来额外价格波动。如果没有超预期的宏观与地缘事件， 中期油市下行压力仍存。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，高硫油基本面与市场结构依然偏弱，短期压力有限。但未来随着夏季结束，中东当地 需求回落，叠加欧佩克增产趋势，中东燃料油发货可能还有增长空间，高硫燃料油市场面临进一步转松的预期。 但如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求显著改善，市场结构有望企稳并再度走强。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，但整体并无短缺预期。国产量持续处于低位，但海外供应已有所回升，外 盘近期呈现边际转弱态势。中期视角下，由于低硫燃料油剩余产能较为充裕，一旦裂解利润适宜将吸引供应释放， 且航运业碳中和趋势将导致低硫燃料油市场份额被逐步替代，市场上方阻力较大。 | 图1：新加坡高硫3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core Views - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures closed up 0.07% at 2,703 yuan per ton, and the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.03% at 3,443 yuan per ton [1] - Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, and the cost-side guidance for FU and LU is bearish. The medium-term balance sheet of the oil market is expected to have an oversupply situation, but in the short term, attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The change in the US attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1] - The current fundamentals and market structure of fuel oil are still weak. The supply at the spot end is relatively abundant, the inventory level is high, and there are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants. The market lacks upward driving force [1] - The shipping volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has been increasing month by month, reaching a high of 3.51 million tons in July. According to current shipping schedule data, the shipping volume in August has declined, currently estimated at 2.65 million tons (with upward revision potential in the second half of the month). In the future, as summer ends, local demand in the Middle East will decline, and coupled with the OPEC production increase trend, the high-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to further loosen. However, if the crack spread is adjusted sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again [1] - The current market pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production has been at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded, and the external market has shown a marginal weakening trend recently. From a medium-term perspective, since the remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil is relatively abundant, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillating [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]

燃料油日报 | 2025-08-20 原油端延续弱势，短期市场驱动有限 市场分析 上期所燃料油期货主力合约日盘收跌0.52%，报2686元/吨；INE低硫燃料油期货主力合约日盘收涨0.2%，报3466 元/吨。 原油价格近日呈现震荡下跌态势，对于FU、LU盘面而言，来自成本端指引的偏空。油市中期平衡表存在供过于求 的预期，但短期需要关注俄美乌之间会谈的进展，美国对俄罗斯制裁的态度变化将影响市场情绪，带来额外价格 波动。 就燃料油自身基本面而言，目前高硫油基本面与市场结构依然偏弱，现货端供应较为充裕，新加坡陆上以及浮仓 库存偏高，需求端除了发电厂的旺季效应外缺乏亮点，市场上行驱动不足。未来随着夏季结束，中东、埃及等地 电厂需求回落，高硫燃料油市场面临进一步转松的预期。但如果裂解价差调整充分，吸引炼厂端需求显著改善， 市场结构有望企稳并再度走强。短期值得关注的事件是俄乌和谈进展，7、8月份俄罗斯高硫燃料油发货已经有回 升迹象，如果接下来三方的谈判顺利，美国放松对俄制裁、乌克兰停止无人机袭击，则俄罗斯燃料油供应还有进 一步的增长空间。 低硫燃料油方面，当前市场压力有限，但整体并无短缺预期。国产量持续处于低位，但海外 ...

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 燃料油日报 2025 年 8 月 19 日 燃料油日报 第一部分 相关数据 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/8/19 | 2025/8/18 | 2025/8/12 | 2025/7/22 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2686 | 2713 | 2770 | 2924 | -27 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 9.5 | 11.2 | 14.9 | 19.3 | -1.7 | | FU仓单(吨) | 80710 | 80710 | 92710 | 113980 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3466 | 3480 | 3502 | 3581 | -14 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 4.4 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 8.6 | 0.2 | | LU仓单 | 11110 | 11110 | 21050 | 90 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.3% at 2,713 yuan/ton, and the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures main contract closed up 0.93% at 3,480 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices have shown a volatile downward trend recently, with a bearish cost-side guidance, and the FU and LU contract trends are also weak. The medium-term oil market balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks between Russia, the US, and Ukraine. The US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and bring additional price fluctuations [1]. - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil shows signs of stabilization, with a slight rebound in the outer market's monthly spread and crack spread, while the domestic market is weak but without prominent contradictions. Currently, the spot supply of high-sulfur oil remains relatively abundant, with high inventories in the Asia-Pacific region. Except for the peak-season effect of power plants, the demand side lacks growth momentum, and the upward driving force of the market is still limited. If the crack spread adjusts sufficiently in the future, attracting a significant rebound in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to strengthen again. The current event worthy of attention is the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. There have been signs of a rebound in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the tripartite talks go smoothly, and the US relaxes sanctions on Russia and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply has room for further growth [2]. - For low-sulfur fuel oil, the current market pressure is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Although domestic production has remained at a low level, overseas supply has rebounded. From a medium-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, once the crack profit is appropriate, it will attract supply release. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. 3) Strategy Summary - High-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Expected to fluctuate [3]. - Cross-variety: No strategy [3]. - Cross-period: No strategy [3]. - Spot-futures: No strategy [3]. - Options: No strategy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have lowered their forecasts for international oil prices for the next two years due to expectations of oversupply in the oil market, leading to a decline in both domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska did not yield any agreements but was deemed constructive, indicating a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to a reduction in international crude oil price premiums [2] - Despite significant differences remaining between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, there is a growing optimism that the conflict may cool down, impacting oil market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable oversupply in the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market since late July, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices have dropped to a near three-year low due to ample supply and weak downstream demand [3] - The influx of fuel oil arbitrage cargoes into the Asian market has contributed to a stable spot price differential for fuel oil, although trading activity remains weak with significant discrepancies in pricing between buyers and sellers [3] Group 3: Downstream Market Behavior - The shipping, power generation, and refining sectors are the primary consumers of fuel oil, with shipping fuel consumption being the largest segment. Recent data shows a decrease in wholesale outflow of marine heavy oil, attributed to weak domestic market demand and cautious procurement by downstream enterprises [4] - Overall, the expectation of a cooling Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a shrinking premium in the international crude oil market and rising oversupply expectations, suggests that the price focus for crude oil may shift downward, further weakening the cost support for fuel oil [4]