1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation in Iran remains volatile, and the intensification of the Middle - East war has led to a rise in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The market logic for propylene lies in concerns about raw material supply due to geopolitical factors and the expectation of supply contraction, which supports olefin prices. The supply of raw material propane is tight, PDH device profits are deeply in the red, and domestic PDH devices are undergoing centralized maintenance. Propylene supply is expected to tighten further. On the demand side, downstream industries mainly conduct rigid restocking at low prices, and their purchasing is improving. In the short term, the propylene supply - demand situation remains tight, and price support exists as long as the Strait of Hormuz is not open for navigation [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Propylene**: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8313 yuan/ton (-97), the spot price in East China is 8300 yuan/ton (+60), and in North China is 8045 yuan/ton (+20). The basis in East China is -13 yuan/ton (+157), and in Shandong is -268 yuan/ton (+117). The propylene operating rate is 71% (-2%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 58 dollars/ton (+1), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is -75 dollars/ton (-44), the import profit is -729 yuan/ton (+54), and the in - plant inventory is 44260 tons (-380) [1] - **Propylene downstream**: The operating rate of PP powder is 31% (+3.98%), and the production profit is -95 yuan/ton (-20); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 77% (-3%), and the production profit is 52 yuan/ton (+270); the operating rate of n - butanol is 85% (-2%), and the production profit is 950 yuan/ton (-63); the operating rate of octanol is 91% (-4%), and the production profit is 650 yuan/ton (+136); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 78% (-2%), and the production profit is 4858 yuan/ton (-42); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 74% (-1%), and the production profit is 20 yuan/ton (-21); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 87% (-2%), and the production profit is -242 yuan/ton (-50) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - The tense situation in Iran has led to a rise in international oil prices, providing strong support for chemical products. The propylene market is affected by concerns about raw material supply and supply contraction. The supply of propane is tight, PDH device profits are poor, and domestic PDH devices are being maintained, leading to a further expected reduction in propylene supply. Downstream industries are restocking rigidly at low prices, and their purchasing is improving. In the short term, the propylene supply - demand situation is tight, and price support exists [2] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices - **Inter - period**: None - **Inter - variety**: None [3] 3.4 Figures and Tables - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, and futures contract spreads [5] - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Covers figures related to production profit and operating rate of different propylene production methods, such as PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking [5] - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Involves figures of production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5]