一轮牛熊之后，大部分投资者并没有赚到与GDP增长相匹配的收益，这些投资账户的钱是怎么 失去的？ 统计数据显示，在上市超过10年时间的申万绩优成份股中，80%的个股在过去十年涨幅超越一倍，仍有8%左 右的个股至今未超越十年前的股价；在红利指数成份股中，也有86%的个股超越5178点时的股价高度。 《复利》作者高塔姆·拜德的观点非常有代表性：随着牛市的成熟，许多投资者倾向于将投资组合从高质量、 增长稳定、股本回报率高的股票，转移到价格增长快、管理质量差、回报率较低的股票，在繁荣期结束时， 大多数投资者的投资组合中只剩下垃圾股。 在随后的熊市中，优质股和垃圾股都会受重挫，但前者会反弹复苏，后者会一蹶不振。最好的经验来自熊 市，这也是价值股投资者为何怀抱绩优股能够战胜熊市，最终收益会随着时间而逐步增长的原因，但垃圾股 的追随者往往会失去牛市赚来的财富，甚至还会亏掉自己的本金。投资者要确保自己的投资组合中是网球 （优质公司），而不是鸡蛋（劣质的垃圾股），鸡蛋落地后会四处飞溅，但网球落地后依然能够弹起。 "鸡蛋"落地后会四处飞溅 在每一轮熊市中，投资者都是小心谨慎，持有的股票也以稳健个股为主，但随着牛市的来临，垃圾股开始 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a downward trend, with major indices showing weakness and individual stocks facing significant declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a low performance, with a minimum intraday point of 3376, aligning with the 5-day moving average at the close [1]. - The Shenzhen market declined by 0.72%, closing near the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential breach if the market opens flat tomorrow [2]. - The ChiNext Index fell by 0.96%, facing pressure from the 6-day moving average, with the STAR 50 showing relatively weak performance [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The trading volume decreased to 1.14 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the previous trading day, indicating insufficient market momentum [1]. - There is a technical demand for the market to test the 60-day moving average, especially if the daily indicators show a MACD and KDJ double death cross [1]. - The Shenzhen market has a foundational demand for a 60-minute double death cross, necessitating a wait for the 60-minute indicators to recover [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious of high-flying junk stocks, as significant adjustments could occur, leading to substantial losses [2]. - A potential trading opportunity may arise only after the daily indicators recover, suggesting a need for a more favorable market condition before considering a wave trading strategy [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.22% to close at 3380 points, indicating a lack of positive market sentiment as only 80,087 stocks rose while 440,051 stocks fell [1] - The trading volume decreased significantly to 1.14 trillion, showing a clear reduction compared to the previous trading day, which raises concerns about market liquidity [1][2] Technical Analysis - The market is currently facing a technical requirement to break the 5-day moving average, as the index has not maintained sufficient volume over the past five days [2] - There is a double dead cross indicator on the 30-minute level, suggesting a need for technical correction and potential volatility in the near term [2][3] - The 60-day moving average is a critical level to watch, as a drop towards this average could lead to significant market fluctuations and a potential bearish trend if the market fails to recover [3][4] Sector Performance - The Shenzhen index fell by 0.72%, closing near the 5-day moving average, indicating a potential breach in the upcoming trading session [4] - The ChiNext index saw a decline of 0.96%, similarly pressured by the 60-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for growth stocks [4] - The North Star index experienced a notable drop of 6.15%, with 17 stocks hitting the daily limit down, highlighting the risk in high-flying stocks and the need for caution in trading strategies [4]