以下文章来源于IN咖 ，作者聪明投资者 IN咖 . 多视角关注优秀投资人和企业家 " 真正厉害的投资人，从来不是先定好要赚多少，而是先问一句：我要冒多大的风险？然后再判断：值不值 得去冒这个险 。 " 2007年10月，金融危机的前夜，赛斯·卡拉曼 （ Seth A. Klarman ） 走进麻省理工 （ MIT）， 进行 了 一场 极其经典的、具有预言般的演 讲。 那时的美国市场表面 似乎 平静：楼市泡沫还没破、杠杆游戏还在疯狂、评级机构还在为各种结构化产品盖 章背书。大多数人相信，繁荣还能持续。 但卡拉曼没有讲走势、也没有预测崩盘，而是反复强调一件事：市场的喧嚣、模型的优雅、回报的诱惑，往 往会让人忘了最基本的问题 ——你为这些回报承担了什么风险？ 很多人知道卡拉曼，是因为那本在投资圈流传甚广的《安全边际》。这本书长期绝版，一度在 eBay上被炒 到 2500美元 一本。它 的 稀缺 不单单是 因为绝版，更因为做起来太难。 在短期主义盛行、市场信息喧嚣的时代，坚持卡拉曼那种慢、谨慎、敬畏风险的风格，本身就不容易。 而他自己，是少数真正做到了 "低调但不妥协"的人。 1982年，卡拉曼25岁， 联合 创立了 ...

Investment Performance - USDT 资金池复合年化收益率约为 21% [1] - BTC 资金池复合年化收益率约为 11% [1] - 极端保守策略下，最大回撤为 0 [1] Risk Management - 日常杠杆在 0.1-0.5 之间 [1] - 极端情况下杠杆不到 0.5 [1] Market Comparison - 币圈的 beta 收益优于传统金融 [1]

这几年，我越来越确信一件事： 一个人的天花板，从来不是能力，而是商业模式。 我做咨询、做课程、做狮途会，接触了太多很优秀的职场人。 简历漂亮、履历好看、能力在线，可一旦跳出公司，开始单干，马上就露出一个巨大的短板： 不知道自己在「什么商业模式」里赚钱。 有人能赚到钱，其实全靠堆时间。有人没那么忙，但收入还在往上走。 差别在：有没有把自己当做一门生意。 01 我见过太多"能力型高手"，被模式掏空。 一个做咨询的会员来找我，他原来在大厂做中高层，出来之后靠人脉接项目。收费不算低吧，单价几 千，客户也认可他。 听上去还不错是不？但他跟我说了一句话，我印象特别深： "叙哥，我好像一直在赚钱，但我的心很慌。" 为什么慌？ 因为他收入的多少，都被那1-2个客户绑定着： 客户今天多找他聊两次，他这个月就开心一点； 每个案子都是重新谈，从头跑一遍信任、报价、交付。 你看，他不是不赚钱，而是完全活在"项目运气"和"人情关系"里。 这个场景我太熟悉了。无数的高收入职场人都卡在这个阶段： 表面是自由职业，本质还是在卖时间、卖自己。唯一变化，就是不再只有一个老板，而是很多个老板。 有两个月客户没新项目，他立刻开始焦虑——要不要再去找 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing substantial price drops, attributed to a combination of cooling market sentiment and leveraged positions being liquidated [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On November 5, Bitcoin fell to a low of $99,075.89, marking a decline of over 20% from its historical high of $126,080 on October 6 [1][2]. - Ethereum's price dropped nearly 35% from its peak of $4,946.05 on August 24, with a 24-hour decline of 15% at one point [1][2]. - By the end of the day on November 5, Bitcoin was priced at $101,905, reflecting a 24-hour drop of 1.7%, while Ethereum was at $3,307.12, down 5.4% [1]. Causes of the Downturn - Analysts attribute the Bitcoin price drop to a combination of cooling market sentiment and the unwinding of leveraged positions, with a significant number of liquidations occurring [2][3]. - The overall risk appetite in the market has decreased, influenced by declines in U.S. stock indices, which has led to a withdrawal of funds from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies [2][3]. - The cryptocurrency fear index has reached a six-month low of 20, indicating heightened fear among investors and a tendency to withdraw from more volatile assets [2]. Liquidation Impact - Data from Coinglass indicates that over 438,736 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $1.719 billion, primarily from long positions [3]. - The liquidation events are described as a chain reaction of price breaks, insufficient margin, and forced sell-offs, contributing to further price declines [3]. Regulatory Environment - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its stance against domestic cryptocurrency trading, emphasizing ongoing efforts to combat illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies [4]. - Investors are reminded that digital assets carry high risks, with price volatility and market sentiment differing significantly from traditional assets [4].

老师再说一遍，我当年套利是5倍杠杆，现在是0.05倍。我以前玩套保，玩跨所，玩spread仓位都巨大。非常激进。为什么现在不敢，不是怕，是风控。以前知道煞笔是谁。现在没了。Xpl，sapine，pumpbtc，每次都提醒过。这次后台又几个大户加起来被mmt干了十几m。不要最后糟重了，才想起老师的推特。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Slight rebound [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides updated fundamental data on aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads in the futures and spot markets [1]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all rated as neutral [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,965, with a night - session closing price of 20,970. Trading volume was 108,173, and open interest was 234,936. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,781, with a trading volume of 20,026. The LME注销仓单占比 was 16.21%, and the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 12.88 [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,810, with a night - session closing price of 2,820. Trading volume was 233,850, and open interest was 351,214. The near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was - 15, and the cost of buying the near - month and selling the first - continuous inter - period arbitrage was 24.67 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,460, with a night - session closing price of 20,435. Trading volume was 3,221, and open interest was 12,810. The near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread was - 90, and the spot premium was 10 [1]. Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The aluminum ingot social inventory in China was 620,000 tons. The aluminum ingot import profit and loss was - 2,019.42, and the aluminum plate and coil export profit and loss was 3,255.20 [1]. - **Alumina**: The average domestic alumina price was 2,940. The alumina arrival price at Lianyungang was 343 US dollars per ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 318 US dollars per ton. The profit and loss of Shanxi alumina enterprises was - 99 [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The三地库存合计 was 48,978. The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 204, and the price of Baotai ADC12 was 20,600 [1]. Other Information - In the comprehensive news, Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, held a video meeting with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, calling on the EU to urge the Netherlands to resolve the Nexperia issue. The leverage of US stock investors has increased significantly, with a 32.4% surge from April to September, approaching historical highs, which is considered a "bad entry point" for risk assets [2]. - The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2].

CT 讨论很多到底是谁受伤了的问题其实我感觉可能这波受伤最多的可能真的是散户？而且是最中坚的接盘力量，低倍杠杆多山寨的大户 ...

Core Insights - MGM Resorts stock has declined by 18% over the past year, contrasting with an 18% increase in the S&P 500, despite appearing undervalued based on various financial multiples [2][3] - The company's reliance on consumer spending and high debt levels pose significant risks, complicating its investment appeal [3][5] Financial Performance - MGM's revenue increased by only 0.9% over the past year to $17 billion, with quarterly revenue rising just 1.8% to $4.4 billion [5] - Operating income for the past twelve months was $1.5 billion, resulting in an 8.6% margin, while net income stands at $540 million (3.1%) [5] - Cash flow margin is at 14.7%, significantly below industry peers [5] Debt and Leverage - MGM's heavily leveraged balance sheet limits its flexibility, making it vulnerable in a rising-rate environment or during travel downturns [6][12] - The company lacks the financial buffer that more conservatively financed competitors possess [6] Historical Context - MGM's stock has shown profound vulnerability during economic downturns, with a 46% drop during the 2022 inflation crisis and a 79% decline during the 2020 pandemic [6] - The stock has not regained its pre-crisis high from the 2008 financial crisis, which saw a 98% drop compared to a 57% decline in the S&P 500 [6] Risk Factors - MGM's cyclical characteristics and financial setup indicate significant downside risk if the economy falters, particularly with rising interest rates affecting debt management [9][10] - The company's recovery relies on the growth of the global leisure market and sustained consumer confidence, which is precarious [10] Key Vulnerabilities - High debt load means small disruptions in cash flow could hinder MGM's ability to meet obligations [12] - Revenues are highly sensitive to economic fluctuations, with declines in travel and consumer spending having disproportionate impacts [12] - Narrow profit margins provide little cushion to withstand shocks or invest in expansion [12]

很多人没意识到，币安的循环贷是为了2-3%的年化（因为入场和出场是有正负溢价的，除非你很懂这个溢价），多加一倍杠杆，不是脑抽了嘛？服了 ...

Risk Management - The industry emphasizes the importance of avoiding cyclical loans, even when annualized returns on the chain are 100% [3] - The industry suggests that current market conditions are often designed to target arbitrage strategies due to the large capital and positions involved, making it difficult to replenish margin or reduce positions quickly enough [3] - The industry warns against underestimating the complexities of financial management, especially in 2025 [3] Trading Strategies - The individual previously separated trading positions from arbitrage positions for clarity [1] - The individual's previous strategy involved simultaneously buying 1,000 units and shorting 900 units for arbitrage and long positions [2] - The individual's current strategy involves buying 1,000 units and shorting 1,000 units, with a separate account holding a long position of 900 units [2] Market Observations - The individual's smaller account, primarily used for trading smaller cryptocurrencies with moderate leverage, experienced significant losses due to the near-zero value of many of these cryptocurrencies [2] - The individual failed to replenish margin during a market downturn [3] - The industry notes that USDT interest rates exceeding 12% would have resulted in even greater losses [3]