PresentationGood morning. My name is Sylvie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Whitecap Resources Investor Day. [Operator Instructions] And I would like to turn it over to Whitecap's President and CEO, Mr. Grant Fagerheim. You may begin the conference.Grant FagerheimPresident, CEO & Director Thanks, Sylvie. Good morning, everyone. We are excited to walk through our asset base, the work our technical and support teams have been doing and why we're ...

白银频频暴涨之际，CME已再度出手上调保证金。这一举措唤醒了市场对历史上数次"逼仓"失败的记忆：2011年银价崩 盘前，CME曾在短短九天内连续五次上调保证金；1980年亨特兄弟溃败，同样始于交易所限制杠杆。 历史反复证明，当 交易所开始密集通过提高保证金来限制杠杆时，往往是市场逆转的前兆。 大洋彼岸的白银市场正陷入癫狂。12月26日周五，现货白银飙升逾10%，逼近80美元/盎司关口，COMEX白银期货周涨 幅接近18%。 这一轮"金属狂潮"不仅局限于白银，黄金已突破4550美元，铜价跟随沪铜创下历史新高，铂金和钯金亦录得双位数涨 幅。市场正在定价"商品控制权"的新叙事，以及将其作为对冲"AI泡沫"和货币贬值的工具。 然而，在疯狂的行情背后，历史的警钟已经敲响。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）已于12月12日将白银保证金上调了10%。 2011年白银崩盘与1980年亨特兄弟（Hunt Brothers）逼仓失败的历史案例表明，当交易所开始出手限制杠杆时，往往 意味着狂欢接近尾声。 与此同时，国内也已采取行动。北京时间12月26日，上海期货交易所发布通知，将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度 调整为15%，并相应上调交 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the complexities and risks associated with contract trading in the cryptocurrency market, particularly for beginners [1] Group 1: Understanding Core Mechanisms - Understanding the core mechanisms of contract trading is essential, as it involves concepts like leverage, margin, and liquidation prices, which differ from simple spot trading [2] - Leverage can amplify potential gains but also significantly increases risks, making it crucial for traders to grasp these rules before engaging in trading [2] - Beginners are advised to use simulation accounts or minimal funds to fully understand the differences between perpetual contracts and futures contracts [2] Group 2: Risk Management - Effective risk management is vital, with experienced traders never investing all their funds in a single trade [2] - Adhering to the principle of using only idle funds and setting clear stop-loss levels for each trade is key to avoiding emotional decision-making and catastrophic losses [2] - Traders should avoid frequently modifying or canceling stop-loss orders due to market fluctuations [2] Group 3: Continuous Learning and Community Engagement - Continuous learning and engagement with a community are crucial for navigating the rapidly changing market [2] - Joining a high-quality learning community allows traders to discuss market logic, share trading experiences, and stay updated on industry trends, facilitating faster growth and reducing mistakes [2] - The article invites interested individuals to join a community for systematic learning about cryptocurrency and contract trading, emphasizing that discussions are based on knowledge sharing and do not constitute investment advice [2]

"我很相信一件事：若经营的生意缺乏持续性，早晚会倒闭！" 一句话让人醍醐灌顶。 李泽楷有次谈及了日本大财团的问题，他批评当年日本在泡沫期间大肆放贷，高利贷公司得意忘形，"当年在日本借贷，你可以晚上十一 时离开酒吧，按一个键拍下影片（影像），输入身份证号码便能借钱，但日息高达10%以上。" 在他看来，这种模式是不可持续的，是不健康的商业模式。 其实就是常识吧，涸泽而渔，无以为继，最终就是得到一个很坏的结果。 如果你也相信这个常识，那对很多事就会有不一样的看法。 比如美国的问题，有人就指出美国的头号敌人是自己，是自己不断膨胀的联邦债务。桥水基金创始人达利欧也曾指出这个问题："货币/ 经济秩序正在崩溃，原因在于（美国）现有债务规模过大，新增债务速度过快，而资本市场与经济体系又严重依赖这一不可持续的债务 结构。" 想一想马斯克过去那个"效率部"，核心目标就是降本增效，以求缩减债务。美联储降息也是为了降低美债成本，延缓债务灾难的爆发。 在达利欧看来，历史上的强国一般分6个阶段：1、建立新秩序；2、官僚制度完善；3、繁荣期、盛世；4、运转成本和债务增加；5、财 政状况恶化、内耗严重；6、革新。 按照这个划分，美国现在正处 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of economic crises remains unchanged despite different appearances, characterized by excessive credit expansion, rampant leverage, collective greed, and subsequent panic [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Great Depression in 1929 occurred after the U.S. had already established a banking system, leading many to believe that such a crisis would not happen again [1][2]. - The U.S. was the first to enter a true consumer era, with significant industrial growth and widespread automobile ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - A hidden flaw existed when factory production efficiency outpaced wage growth, leading to overproduction and unsold goods [6][7]. - The introduction of installment payments transformed American consumption patterns, with 60% of cars and 75% of furniture sold on credit [12][13]. Group 3: Speculative Risks - The period from 1920 to 1929 saw the Dow Jones index rise by 500%, with widespread use of borrowed money for stock trading [17]. - Margin trading allowed investors to amplify their gains, but also their losses, creating significant risk when the market began to decline [18][20]. Group 4: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The absence of deposit insurance and the freedom for banks to invest in the stock market created systemic risks [30][32]. - A bank run occurred as depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to widespread bank failures and a collapse of credit [36][39]. Group 5: Global Impact - The U.S. crisis transmitted globally due to the gold standard, affecting international trade and monetary policies [41][42]. - Countries faced a dilemma between monetary expansion to stimulate economies and the risk of currency devaluation [45][46]. Group 6: Recovery Mechanisms - The New Deal introduced reforms but was not sufficient for a quick recovery; World War II significantly boosted the U.S. economy by increasing industrial demand [47][49]. - The cyclical nature of economic events suggests that understanding these patterns is crucial for mitigating risks [50][52].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding risk in investment decisions, highlighting that successful investors prioritize risk assessment over return expectations [5][6][17]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy advocated by Seth Klarman focuses on the principle of "margin of safety," which suggests that investors should buy assets at a price significantly below their intrinsic value to mitigate risks [6][46]. - The article critiques the short-termism prevalent in the market, arguing that many investors are unable to filter out market noise and maintain a long-term perspective [9][12]. - It highlights the psychological aspects of investing, noting that human emotions often lead to irrational decision-making, such as excessive risk-taking during market euphoria and panic selling during downturns [14][49]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article discusses the dangers of high leverage in the financial system, indicating that excessive risk-taking has permeated the entire financial landscape, leading to systemic vulnerabilities [11][25]. - It points out that market prices are often driven by emotions rather than fundamentals, creating opportunities for value investors who can remain calm during market fluctuations [55][58]. - The article also mentions the role of institutional constraints and market structure in creating mispriced assets, suggesting that these factors can lead to significant investment opportunities for those willing to look beyond the surface [50][51]. Group 3: Value Investing - Value investing is presented as a disciplined approach that focuses on acquiring undervalued assets, emphasizing the need for patience and rigorous analysis [46][47]. - The article asserts that value investors are often able to achieve superior returns by capitalizing on market inefficiencies and emotional reactions from other investors [33][58]. - It concludes that the essence of value investing lies in recognizing that markets are not always efficient, allowing for the identification of mispriced opportunities [48][62].

Investment Performance - USDT 资金池复合年化收益率约为 21% [1] - BTC 资金池复合年化收益率约为 11% [1] - 极端保守策略下，最大回撤为 0 [1] Risk Management - 日常杠杆在 0.1-0.5 之间 [1] - 极端情况下杠杆不到 0.5 [1] Market Comparison - 币圈的 beta 收益优于传统金融 [1]

Core Insights - The main argument is that an individual's ceiling is determined not by their abilities but by their business model [1][2] - Many skilled professionals struggle when transitioning to independent work due to a lack of understanding of their business model [3][6] Group 1: Business Model Understanding - Professionals often rely on a few clients for income, leading to instability and anxiety about future projects [4][5] - The essence of being self-employed is often similar to being an employee, as they still sell their time and skills [6][7] - A clear business model is essential for stability and growth, shifting the focus from merely working to designing oneself as a business [7][8] Group 2: Value Creation - Identifying the true value created for clients is crucial; many professionals mistakenly believe they are selling their expertise rather than solving specific problems [10][11] - Understanding the target audience and their pain points can clarify the business model and enhance value delivery [12][13] Group 3: Trust and Credibility - Building trust is essential for high-ticket sales; potential clients often take time to evaluate a provider's credibility before making a purchase [14][16] - Content creation and consistent output help establish trust, which is a scarce resource in today's market [17][18] Group 4: Leveraging and System Building - Without leverage, high-ability individuals may find themselves overworked and undercompensated [18][21] - Implementing structured processes and delegating tasks can enhance efficiency and allow for scaling [19][21] - The ultimate goal is to create a self-sustaining system that operates independently, focusing on content, trust, and results [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum seeing substantial price drops, attributed to a combination of cooling market sentiment and leveraged positions being liquidated [1][2][3]. Market Performance - On November 5, Bitcoin fell to a low of $99,075.89, marking a decline of over 20% from its historical high of $126,080 on October 6 [1][2]. - Ethereum's price dropped nearly 35% from its peak of $4,946.05 on August 24, with a 24-hour decline of 15% at one point [1][2]. - By the end of the day on November 5, Bitcoin was priced at $101,905, reflecting a 24-hour drop of 1.7%, while Ethereum was at $3,307.12, down 5.4% [1]. Causes of the Downturn - Analysts attribute the Bitcoin price drop to a combination of cooling market sentiment and the unwinding of leveraged positions, with a significant number of liquidations occurring [2][3]. - The overall risk appetite in the market has decreased, influenced by declines in U.S. stock indices, which has led to a withdrawal of funds from riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies [2][3]. - The cryptocurrency fear index has reached a six-month low of 20, indicating heightened fear among investors and a tendency to withdraw from more volatile assets [2]. Liquidation Impact - Data from Coinglass indicates that over 438,736 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $1.719 billion, primarily from long positions [3]. - The liquidation events are described as a chain reaction of price breaks, insufficient margin, and forced sell-offs, contributing to further price declines [3]. Regulatory Environment - The People's Bank of China has reiterated its stance against domestic cryptocurrency trading, emphasizing ongoing efforts to combat illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies [4]. - Investors are reminded that digital assets carry high risks, with price volatility and market sentiment differing significantly from traditional assets [4].

Risk Management & Trading Strategy - Previous trading involved 5x leverage, now reduced to 005x leverage [1] - Past strategies included arbitrage, inter-exchange trading, and large spread positions [1] - Current risk control is prioritized due to market uncertainty [1] Market Warnings & Losses - Warnings were issued regarding Xpl, sapine, and pumpbtc [2] - Several large accounts collectively lost over 10 million due to MMT [2]