● 本报记者 刘英杰 谭丁豪 胡雨 当市场热点快速轮动，不同世代的投资者如何应对？有人坚守估值纪律穿越牛熊，有人通过多元配置追 求稳健，也有人在短线波动中初识风险。尽管风格迥异，但回归价值、立足认知、追求可持续回报，正 成为跨越不同年龄层的投资共识。 "首要目标是不要亏钱，其次是争取6%-7%的年化收益。"杨恺表示，基于自己的认知框架稳健操作，或 许就是获取超额收益的投资之道。 "将来也是要做价值投资的" 老向长期看好A股市场，认为房地产资金逐步入市、回购制度不断完善都将带来投资机会。但他表示， 行情不会一蹴而就，"3-5年甚至10年的周期里，仍要坚守独立思考"，用龟兔赛跑的心态做长期投资。 三十载的实践证明，在中国股市，稳健投资同样能够行稳致远。 "我只赚认知内的钱" "估算下来，2025年整体收益率大概在6%-7%。""90后"投资者杨恺（化名）回顾2025年时，语气透 着"符合预期"的稳健。他的组合涵盖A股、海外市场和FOF基金，这份成绩单让他感觉"还不错"。 2025年，他的资产以股票为主，辅以债券和贵金属，核心策略是基于"认知能力圈"的多元化配置。谈及 意外，他直言有三个"没想到"：一是美股等海外市 ...

作为一名财经博主，我平时做研究的时间，远多于做交易的时间。 上场下单眼疾手快，研究功夫全在场外。 一旦研究，都需要深度阅读各种信息媒体。 其中一定包括上次我曾经给大家推荐过的一本中国顶级 优秀纸媒。 有多优秀？ 它曾三次非常准确地预测了未来。 第一次，2003年非典时期 ，很多人认为中国的经济会高速跌落，但是它却告诉大家， 中国经济正 处于大爆发的前夜。 极少数看了并相信的人就抓住了 2003年—2007年的 经济 暴涨期 。 第二次，2007年全国经济形势一片大好，但它却提醒大家提防 "泡沫经济" ，极少数相信的人，因 此躲过了2008年爆发的席卷全球的金融危机。 第三次，2022年末 疫情后百废待兴 ，房价短期内大幅上涨，看似一片欣欣向荣。 这本杂志再一次警示大家， 未来 房价会下降40%，楼市会回到2016年 ，当然很多人也不相信。 结果现实 就是2025年，今年的楼价的确回到了2016年水平！ 它只是一本纸媒。也是被人遗忘的一种媒体了。即使纸媒曾经是很多中国人的岁月印记。 那时候的我， 年初月始， 也会比着目录 定期 刊杂志，每个 月末 的几天都满心期盼，盼着家里邮 箱收到...... 或从亲朋好友老 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes three key aspects that demonstrate strong capabilities to leadership: thinking one step ahead, executing quickly, and enhancing communication [8][36] - Thinking one step ahead involves understanding the underlying reasons for tasks and providing comprehensive solutions rather than just completing assigned tasks [6][8] - Quick execution is characterized by immediate action upon receiving tasks, planning effectively, and focusing on achieving results rather than merely completing assignments [12][18] Group 2 - Effective communication is crucial, as it addresses the misconception that others can read one's thoughts; clear and complete communication is necessary to avoid misunderstandings [21][22] - The communication process consists of three steps: expressing intentions clearly, providing feedback to confirm understanding, and establishing a closed loop to ensure mutual comprehension [30][36] - The article concludes that demonstrating strong capabilities to leadership requires proactive thinking, swift execution, and thorough communication [36]

Core Viewpoint - John Paulson, a legendary figure on Wall Street, is known for his investment strategies, particularly his recent focus on gold, predicting that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2028 due to economic downturns and geopolitical conflicts [5][7]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Paulson's investment approach emphasizes independent thinking and thorough research, avoiding the herd mentality prevalent in the financial industry [23]. - His past success during the 2008 financial crisis was attributed to his ability to identify market bubbles and act decisively based on extensive analysis rather than speculation [21][23]. Group 2: Recent Developments - After declining an offer to become U.S. Treasury Secretary under Trump, Paulson shifted his focus back to the gold market, aggressively purchasing shares in gold mining companies starting in 2023 [4][5]. - His prediction of a significant rise in gold prices is based on observable trends in the global economy, including signs of recession and ongoing geopolitical tensions [7][8]. Group 3: Historical Context - Paulson gained fame during the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the housing market, which he identified as being in a bubble after a personal experience with real estate [8][10]. - His strategy involved extensive research, including analyzing subprime mortgage data and understanding the risks associated with various mortgage-backed securities [12][19]. Group 4: Market Reactions - Despite skepticism from others regarding his gold investment strategy, Paulson's track record suggests that his insights are often grounded in solid analysis, making him a figure to watch in uncertain markets [23].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential risks of over-reliance on AI, particularly in the context of independent thinking and cognitive abilities [1][2][3] Group 1: AI Dependency and Cognitive Impact - AI applications, while enhancing productivity, may lead to "AI brain fog," diminishing motivation and cognitive abilities over time [2][3] - Research from MIT indicates that long-term use of AI tools can reduce neural connections in the brain, affecting language and behavior [2] - Studies suggest that generative AI can weaken critical thinking skills, leading to a dependency that undermines problem-solving capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Psychological and Social Implications - The use of AI can result in a "hollowing out" of cognitive demands, where humans engage in mere mechanical execution of tasks, leading to psychological detachment and loss of motivation [3] - The increasing trust in AI stems from its specialized capabilities and user-friendly interactions, which can create a psychological dependency [4] - Lack of basic AI literacy among users contributes to a tendency to "blindly trust" AI outputs, raising concerns about the potential for misinformation and bias in critical areas like law and healthcare [4] Group 3: Future of Human-AI Interaction - The future workforce may split into "AI passengers," who rely entirely on AI, and "AI drivers," who actively manage and verify AI outputs [7] - Establishing an "AI buffer zone" is recommended, where individuals first generate their own responses before consulting AI, fostering independent thought [7] - Critical thinking should be applied to AI-generated content, questioning whether the alignment of AI responses with personal views is due to influence or training [7]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI in education is rapidly evolving, with universities adopting various strategies to incorporate AI tools, raising questions about their impact on student learning and critical thinking [3][10][17]. Group 1: AI Adoption in Universities - Tsinghua University introduced an AI assistant for new students to answer questions about campus life [3] - Ohio State University made AI courses mandatory for all graduates to ensure AI literacy [3] - Sydney University opted for traditional exams to assess students' knowledge without AI assistance [3] Group 2: Student Usage of AI - A global survey in 2024 found that 86% of university students frequently use AI in their studies, with STEM students being the heaviest users [6] - Nearly 90% of students admitted to using generative AI for writing, with 58% using it to explain concepts and 25% editing AI-generated text [6] Group 3: Benefits and Concerns of AI in Education - Supporters argue that AI offers exciting opportunities for education, with studies showing that students using customized AI tutors perform better than those taught solely by human instructors [8] - Concerns arise regarding the potential for AI to hinder learning, as reliance on AI tools may reduce independent thinking and critical analysis skills [9][8] Group 4: Global Strategies and Policies - Universities worldwide are developing AI usage policies, with varying degrees of success; the U.S. has seen a chaotic approach while Australia has implemented coordinated measures [11] - In China, integrating AI into universities is viewed as a national strategy, with Tsinghua University developing a multi-layered AI system for education [12] Group 5: Faculty Perspectives and Market Dynamics - Faculty acceptance of AI is more cautious, with only 60% using AI tools in teaching, and 80% reporting a lack of clear guidelines from their institutions [14] - Tech giants like OpenAI and Google are actively promoting their products in universities, with OpenAI launching a dedicated version of ChatGPT for educational use [14] Group 6: Unresolved Questions on Learning Outcomes - The critical question remains whether students using AI tools genuinely learn more; preliminary findings suggest that while AI users perform better immediately, their retention of knowledge may be weaker over time [17] - The challenge for the education sector is to balance technological innovation with the need for personalized teaching that fosters independent thought and critical thinking [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the enduring value and relevance of "Sanlian Life Weekly" in a rapidly changing media landscape, highlighting its role in providing depth and insight amidst the rise of superficial content in new media [3][19][94]. Group 1: Historical Significance - "Sanlian Life Weekly" has played a crucial role in guiding readers through significant economic changes in China, accurately predicting economic trends during critical periods such as the pre-2003 economic boom and warning against the 2008 financial crisis [8][9][94]. - The magazine has maintained a loyal readership over nearly a century, with many readers attributing their personal growth and understanding of the world to its content [31][94]. Group 2: Content Diversity - The magazine covers a wide range of topics including news, society, economy, culture, and personal development, appealing to a diverse audience [12][21][55]. - It features contributions from various experts and public figures, ensuring a rich and varied perspective on contemporary issues [12][21][75]. Group 3: Reader Engagement - "Sanlian Life Weekly" fosters meaningful discussions among families and friends, providing a platform for shared knowledge and insights [37][98]. - The magazine's thoughtful approach to complex societal issues encourages readers to engage in deeper reflection and critical thinking [16][21][73]. Group 4: Subscription Value - The magazine offers a subscription model that includes 52 issues for a total price of 390 yuan, which is positioned as a cost-effective investment for quality reading material [38][100]. - Subscribers receive additional benefits such as a complimentary issue, enhancing the overall value of the subscription [39][111].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of imagination and innovation in business, particularly in the context of 7-Eleven's success, as articulated by its founder, Toshifumi Suzuki [1][6][9]. Group 1: Business Philosophy - The core philosophy revolves around creating value from nothing, highlighting the need for imagination over mere memorization in a rapidly changing environment [1][9]. - Suzuki advocates for thinking from the future's perspective, which allows businesses to adapt and thrive despite challenges posed by larger competitors [1][12]. - The distinction between "for the customer" and "from the customer's perspective" is crucial, as it emphasizes the need for genuine understanding of customer needs rather than superficial compliance [1][19]. Group 2: Operational Strategies - The operational success of 7-Eleven is attributed to its ability to innovate by combining different business models, such as integrating the American convenience store model with Japanese retail practices [1][12]. - The company focuses on high-quality products, as demonstrated by the successful launch of premium items like "Golden Toast," which sold well despite being priced higher than competitors [1][13]. - The emphasis on efficiency and customer-centric decision-making has allowed 7-Eleven to maintain a competitive edge in the retail market [1][19][20]. Group 3: Leadership and Decision-Making - Suzuki's leadership style is characterized by independent thinking and a clear separation between the company and personal work philosophy, which fosters innovation [1][15][17]. - The decision-making process is guided by a strict standard of quality, rejecting mediocrity in favor of clear "yes" or "no" judgments based on customer satisfaction [1][19][20]. - The ability to recover from failures and learn from them is highlighted as a key trait for sustained success in business [1][25]. Group 4: Market Adaptation - The evolution of consumer behavior is noted, with a shift towards a consumer-driven market that values innovative and practical solutions [1][22][23]. - The integration of online and offline business models, such as the Omni-Channel strategy, is seen as essential for future growth and customer engagement [1][24]. - Companies that continuously innovate and adapt to consumer needs are more likely to thrive in the current market landscape [1][22][23].

- The report primarily focuses on the investment philosophy and performance of the Guotou Ruiyin New Silk Road Fund, emphasizing its adherence to "independent thinking, probabilistic reasoning, contrarian courage, and forward-looking vision" to identify undervalued high-quality stocks and achieve stable long-term excess returns[3][7][36] - The fund's investment framework includes diversified asset allocation, with a long-term equity allocation exceeding 93%, and a relatively moderate stock concentration, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 58.25% of total stock assets as of Q2 2025[8][40][43] - The fund demonstrates a stable investment style, with its performance primarily driven by sector and stock selection. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2025, it exhibited consistent positive exposure to small-cap, high-ROE, and high-beta factors, while showing negative exposure to micro-cap stocks[70][73][74] - The fund's turnover rate remains significantly lower than the median of its peers, indicating a preference for medium- to long-term holding strategies. As of H1 2025, the turnover rate was approximately 68.94%, well below the peer median of 189.44%[60][62][64] - The fund achieved an annualized return of 9.08% from April 13, 2015, to August 29, 2025, with an annualized excess return of 7.76% relative to its benchmark. It also outperformed major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 during the same period[24][26][28] - Weekly excess return analysis from August 29, 2023, to August 29, 2025, shows an overall win rate of approximately 53.92%, with a higher win rate of 69.23% during market uptrends and 38.00% during downtrends[75][78][80]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining human individuality and independent thinking in the face of advancing AI technology, as highlighted by prominent figures like Ke Jie, Xu Yangsheng, and Mo Yan [1][2][4] - Ke Jie’s experience of being defeated by AlphaGo serves as a pivotal moment that illustrates the gap between human cognitive abilities and AI, leading him to pursue further education and personal growth [1][4] - The discussion around AI's impact on education stresses that universities should nurture unique human traits rather than producing standardized talents, reinforcing the value of critical thinking and creativity [2][3] Group 2 - Xu Yangsheng, president of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), warns against outsourcing critical thinking to AI, emphasizing that independent thought is essential for human innovation and progress [3] - Mo Yan, a Nobel laureate, acknowledges the inevitability of AI but points out its limitations in creativity and emotional depth, advocating for the uniqueness of human expression [3][4] - The collective insights from these leaders converge on the notion that human value lies not in competing with AI on computational strength but in preserving the distinct qualities that define humanity [4][5]