大家好，今天犀哥这篇财经评论，主要聊一个华尔街传奇人物的故事：约翰・保尔森。 连特朗普都想将他收入麾下 这职位啥概念？相当于美国经济领域的"一把手"，手握调控大权，多少人挤破头都想要，但保尔森想都没想就拒了，理由是自己"难堪重任"，还顺带吐槽了 特朗普的对华关税战，说这纯属"伤敌八百、自损一千"的糊涂账。 换作一般人，碰到这种一步登天的机会，早就乐开花了，但保尔森不这么想这正是他能成大事的关键，不被名利牵着鼻子走。 金融圈里太多人追名逐利，最后栽在权力和欲望里，但保尔森心里知道自己真正擅长的是投资，不是搞政治，一旦进了权力的圈子，就很难保持客观冷静的 判断，而这恰恰是投资的生命线。 拒绝当官后，保尔森也没闲着，转头就扎进了黄金市场，从2023年开始，他就疯狂买入金矿公司的股票，跟当初做空房地产时一样果断。 这人可是个狠角色，在2008年次贷危机里赚得盆满钵满，特朗普都想请他当财政部长，结果人家直接拒绝，现在又一门心思押注黄金，说2028年金价能涨到 5000美元一盎司，他能预知金融吗？ 2025年4月底，他更是放出狠话，说2028年黄金价格能冲到5000美元每盎司，很多人觉得他疯了，但了解他的人都知道，这背后 ...

新华社北京10月28日电 新闻分析｜警惕"AI依赖" 人机共生时代如何保持独立思考 新华社记者彭茜 浙江大学管理学院吴苏青团队今年在英国《科学报告》杂志发表的研究还显示，AI的应用带来认 知需求的"空心化"。当AI完成工作的"烧脑"部分，人类仅剩机械性执行，工作沦为"被动填空"，就可能 会导致心理疏离，丧失工作动力。这就要求企业、政府部门等部署AI时要"慢下脚步"，可先小范围试 点、可控推进，边用边观察对员工积极性和创造力的影响。 人们为何"轻信"AI 人们之所以愈加依赖AI，源自于近年来AI专业化能力和交互便捷性的飞跃：其生成内容的专业化 程度，让不少人把它奉为专家，而对话式的交互方式让它好似一位学识渊博又无话不谈的"好友"，更易 让人形成心理依赖和信任。 近日，美国斯坦福大学研究人员策划了全球首个以人工智能（AI）为核心作者与论文评审的线上 开放会议。主办方称，此次会议旨在创建一个"相对安全的试验场"，探索AI是否及如何能独立产生新颖 的科学见解、假设与方法论等。 如今，AI已成为我们工作生活的好帮手，但它同时也在提供一种"认知捷径"，让人们不用费力思考 便能得到想要的答案。一开始只是查询信息、翻译文字， ...

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI in education is rapidly evolving, with universities adopting various strategies to incorporate AI tools, raising questions about their impact on student learning and critical thinking [3][10][17]. Group 1: AI Adoption in Universities - Tsinghua University introduced an AI assistant for new students to answer questions about campus life [3] - Ohio State University made AI courses mandatory for all graduates to ensure AI literacy [3] - Sydney University opted for traditional exams to assess students' knowledge without AI assistance [3] Group 2: Student Usage of AI - A global survey in 2024 found that 86% of university students frequently use AI in their studies, with STEM students being the heaviest users [6] - Nearly 90% of students admitted to using generative AI for writing, with 58% using it to explain concepts and 25% editing AI-generated text [6] Group 3: Benefits and Concerns of AI in Education - Supporters argue that AI offers exciting opportunities for education, with studies showing that students using customized AI tutors perform better than those taught solely by human instructors [8] - Concerns arise regarding the potential for AI to hinder learning, as reliance on AI tools may reduce independent thinking and critical analysis skills [9][8] Group 4: Global Strategies and Policies - Universities worldwide are developing AI usage policies, with varying degrees of success; the U.S. has seen a chaotic approach while Australia has implemented coordinated measures [11] - In China, integrating AI into universities is viewed as a national strategy, with Tsinghua University developing a multi-layered AI system for education [12] Group 5: Faculty Perspectives and Market Dynamics - Faculty acceptance of AI is more cautious, with only 60% using AI tools in teaching, and 80% reporting a lack of clear guidelines from their institutions [14] - Tech giants like OpenAI and Google are actively promoting their products in universities, with OpenAI launching a dedicated version of ChatGPT for educational use [14] Group 6: Unresolved Questions on Learning Outcomes - The critical question remains whether students using AI tools genuinely learn more; preliminary findings suggest that while AI users perform better immediately, their retention of knowledge may be weaker over time [17] - The challenge for the education sector is to balance technological innovation with the need for personalized teaching that fosters independent thought and critical thinking [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the enduring value and relevance of "Sanlian Life Weekly" in a rapidly changing media landscape, highlighting its role in providing depth and insight amidst the rise of superficial content in new media [3][19][94]. Group 1: Historical Significance - "Sanlian Life Weekly" has played a crucial role in guiding readers through significant economic changes in China, accurately predicting economic trends during critical periods such as the pre-2003 economic boom and warning against the 2008 financial crisis [8][9][94]. - The magazine has maintained a loyal readership over nearly a century, with many readers attributing their personal growth and understanding of the world to its content [31][94]. Group 2: Content Diversity - The magazine covers a wide range of topics including news, society, economy, culture, and personal development, appealing to a diverse audience [12][21][55]. - It features contributions from various experts and public figures, ensuring a rich and varied perspective on contemporary issues [12][21][75]. Group 3: Reader Engagement - "Sanlian Life Weekly" fosters meaningful discussions among families and friends, providing a platform for shared knowledge and insights [37][98]. - The magazine's thoughtful approach to complex societal issues encourages readers to engage in deeper reflection and critical thinking [16][21][73]. Group 4: Subscription Value - The magazine offers a subscription model that includes 52 issues for a total price of 390 yuan, which is positioned as a cost-effective investment for quality reading material [38][100]. - Subscribers receive additional benefits such as a complimentary issue, enhancing the overall value of the subscription [39][111].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of imagination and innovation in business, particularly in the context of 7-Eleven's success, as articulated by its founder, Toshifumi Suzuki [1][6][9]. Group 1: Business Philosophy - The core philosophy revolves around creating value from nothing, highlighting the need for imagination over mere memorization in a rapidly changing environment [1][9]. - Suzuki advocates for thinking from the future's perspective, which allows businesses to adapt and thrive despite challenges posed by larger competitors [1][12]. - The distinction between "for the customer" and "from the customer's perspective" is crucial, as it emphasizes the need for genuine understanding of customer needs rather than superficial compliance [1][19]. Group 2: Operational Strategies - The operational success of 7-Eleven is attributed to its ability to innovate by combining different business models, such as integrating the American convenience store model with Japanese retail practices [1][12]. - The company focuses on high-quality products, as demonstrated by the successful launch of premium items like "Golden Toast," which sold well despite being priced higher than competitors [1][13]. - The emphasis on efficiency and customer-centric decision-making has allowed 7-Eleven to maintain a competitive edge in the retail market [1][19][20]. Group 3: Leadership and Decision-Making - Suzuki's leadership style is characterized by independent thinking and a clear separation between the company and personal work philosophy, which fosters innovation [1][15][17]. - The decision-making process is guided by a strict standard of quality, rejecting mediocrity in favor of clear "yes" or "no" judgments based on customer satisfaction [1][19][20]. - The ability to recover from failures and learn from them is highlighted as a key trait for sustained success in business [1][25]. Group 4: Market Adaptation - The evolution of consumer behavior is noted, with a shift towards a consumer-driven market that values innovative and practical solutions [1][22][23]. - The integration of online and offline business models, such as the Omni-Channel strategy, is seen as essential for future growth and customer engagement [1][24]. - Companies that continuously innovate and adapt to consumer needs are more likely to thrive in the current market landscape [1][22][23].

- The report primarily focuses on the investment philosophy and performance of the Guotou Ruiyin New Silk Road Fund, emphasizing its adherence to "independent thinking, probabilistic reasoning, contrarian courage, and forward-looking vision" to identify undervalued high-quality stocks and achieve stable long-term excess returns[3][7][36] - The fund's investment framework includes diversified asset allocation, with a long-term equity allocation exceeding 93%, and a relatively moderate stock concentration, with the top 10 holdings accounting for approximately 58.25% of total stock assets as of Q2 2025[8][40][43] - The fund demonstrates a stable investment style, with its performance primarily driven by sector and stock selection. From Q1 2024 to Q2 2025, it exhibited consistent positive exposure to small-cap, high-ROE, and high-beta factors, while showing negative exposure to micro-cap stocks[70][73][74] - The fund's turnover rate remains significantly lower than the median of its peers, indicating a preference for medium- to long-term holding strategies. As of H1 2025, the turnover rate was approximately 68.94%, well below the peer median of 189.44%[60][62][64] - The fund achieved an annualized return of 9.08% from April 13, 2015, to August 29, 2025, with an annualized excess return of 7.76% relative to its benchmark. It also outperformed major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 800 during the same period[24][26][28] - Weekly excess return analysis from August 29, 2023, to August 29, 2025, shows an overall win rate of approximately 53.92%, with a higher win rate of 69.23% during market uptrends and 38.00% during downtrends[75][78][80]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of maintaining human individuality and independent thinking in the face of advancing AI technology, as highlighted by prominent figures like Ke Jie, Xu Yangsheng, and Mo Yan [1][2][4] - Ke Jie’s experience of being defeated by AlphaGo serves as a pivotal moment that illustrates the gap between human cognitive abilities and AI, leading him to pursue further education and personal growth [1][4] - The discussion around AI's impact on education stresses that universities should nurture unique human traits rather than producing standardized talents, reinforcing the value of critical thinking and creativity [2][3] Group 2 - Xu Yangsheng, president of the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen), warns against outsourcing critical thinking to AI, emphasizing that independent thought is essential for human innovation and progress [3] - Mo Yan, a Nobel laureate, acknowledges the inevitability of AI but points out its limitations in creativity and emotional depth, advocating for the uniqueness of human expression [3][4] - The collective insights from these leaders converge on the notion that human value lies not in competing with AI on computational strength but in preserving the distinct qualities that define humanity [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how the internet, while intended to connect people, has instead created divisions and misunderstandings through algorithm-driven content that reinforces biases and promotes conflict among different generations and social groups [2][3][12]. Group 1: Impact of Algorithms - Algorithms create "information cocoons" that limit individuals' perspectives by only showing content that aligns with their existing beliefs, leading to a distorted view of reality [3][12]. - The content pushed by algorithms can exacerbate generational divides, as seen in the contrasting views of young people and their parents regarding financial responsibilities and values [3][4]. Group 2: Social Dynamics - The article highlights the disconnect between family members and colleagues, where individuals perceive each other as adversaries due to the influence of algorithmically curated content [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the essence of relationships, such as familial love, is often overlooked in favor of superficial judgments based on materialism or societal expectations [3][12]. Group 3: Individual Responsibility - The tendency to follow popular opinions without critical thinking is described as "cognitive laziness," which leads to a loss of personal judgment and values [4][7]. - The article advocates for maintaining one's own pace and values in life, rather than succumbing to external pressures and trends dictated by the internet [10][12]. Group 4: The Role of Education - The discussion includes how the portrayal of education in media can lead to oversimplified narratives that ignore the complexities and individual differences in educational experiences [5][6]. - It points out that while some may criticize traditional education methods, many individuals have benefited from them, highlighting the need for a balanced perspective [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents ten golden rules for survival in the stock market, emphasizing the importance of risk management, independent thinking, and long-term investment strategies [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Avoid using leverage as it amplifies both gains and risks, leading to potential losses [3]. - Focus on understanding industry logic and long-term value rather than relying solely on intelligence or K-line charts [3][4]. - Stay away from penny stocks and companies with poor financial health, as they are likely to face significant downturns [3][4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Independent thinking is crucial; following market trends or "hot stocks" often leads to losses [4]. - The stock market is likened to gambling, where long-term value investing is seen as a more favorable bet compared to short-term speculation [5][6]. - Recognize that even high-quality stocks can decline in value during bear markets, thus investors should buy low and hold rather than chase high prices [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Timing and Valuation - Emphasize the importance of understanding valuation, market sentiment, and the potential for price appreciation when making investment decisions [5][6]. - The article suggests that while predicting market timing is challenging, focusing on the potential for price movement (space) is more feasible than trying to predict speed or timing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of independent thinking in an AI-driven world, arguing that true independent thought goes beyond merely consuming information and requires deeper emotional and cognitive engagement [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Independent Thinking - Independent thinking is not merely about information acquisition or following trends; it involves pausing to critically analyze and reflect on information [3][4]. - Genuine independent thought requires self-inquiry before expressing opinions, asking oneself if they truly understand the subject matter and what their personal feelings are [5]. Group 2: The Role of Emotions in Thinking - The foundation of independent thinking is emotional awareness, where initial emotional reactions to information serve as a starting point for deeper inquiry [6][7][8]. Group 3: Critical Thinking - Critical thinking involves recognizing the boundaries of arguments rather than simply criticizing them; it requires a thorough examination of viewpoints [9]. Group 4: AI as a Tool - AI should be viewed as a tool to enhance thinking rather than a replacement for it; individuals should engage in self-reflection before consulting AI [10][12]. Group 5: Developing Inner Awareness - There is a need to cultivate an "inner sense" to better understand one's emotions and thoughts, which can enhance independent thinking [13]. Group 6: Exercises to Enhance Thinking - The article suggests four exercises to foster active thinking: keeping an emotion diary, challenging accepted viewpoints, creating a question list before using AI, and practicing mindfulness meditation [14][17]. Group 7: Conclusion - Despite AI's capabilities, it cannot replicate personal experiences, emotions, and insights, which are essential for genuine thought processes [18][19].