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国金证券:建材行业2026年展望 结构性亮点主导静待景气回升
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 04:00
Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025 due to structural highlights, despite ongoing pressure from traditional domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Cement - Cement demand is under pressure, with a structural adjustment expected; by 2025, the demand distribution is projected to be 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance as excess capacity is addressed and supply-side constraints are implemented [3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is poised for significant profit release in 2026, driven by demand from AI electronic cloth; the focus will be on high-end fabric price elasticity [4]. - The glass fiber industry has established a global pricing structure, with both domestic and international demand being crucial for growth [4]. Group 3: Glass - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repair processes, with a net reduction of approximately 4000 tons per day expected by the end of 2025 [5]. - The industry is experiencing weak profitability, with over 60% of natural gas production lines expected to incur losses; however, there may be opportunities for supply-demand mismatches in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [6]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the increase in second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, creating structural opportunities [6].