2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究 电石、氯碱工业："反内卷"加速供给侧出清，龙头竞争力有望提升 ——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之十二 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 磷化工：磷铵整体开工率偏低，头部企业 资源充足盈利可观——石化化工反内卷 稳增长系列之十一（2025-07-31） 要点 1、"反内卷"政策发布，成本端约束有望加速高耗能行业出清 近期国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，叠加工信部推出石化化工行业 稳增长工作方案，有望推动化工行业落后产 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025 due to structural highlights, despite ongoing pressure from traditional domestic real estate and infrastructure sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Cement - Cement demand is under pressure, with a structural adjustment expected; by 2025, the demand distribution is projected to be 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [3]. - The industry is anticipated to experience a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance as excess capacity is addressed and supply-side constraints are implemented [3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber - The glass fiber sector is poised for significant profit release in 2026, driven by demand from AI electronic cloth; the focus will be on high-end fabric price elasticity [4]. - The glass fiber industry has established a global pricing structure, with both domestic and international demand being crucial for growth [4]. Group 3: Glass - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repair processes, with a net reduction of approximately 4000 tons per day expected by the end of 2025 [5]. - The industry is experiencing weak profitability, with over 60% of natural gas production lines expected to incur losses; however, there may be opportunities for supply-demand mismatches in 2026 [5]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [6]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the increase in second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, creating structural opportunities [6].

本文字数：1755，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 一财评论员 提高经济运行质量已到了亟须优化发力路径的关键阶段。 国家统计局数据显示，前11个月，全国规上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同比增长0.1%，其中 11月份同比下降13.1%；前11个月，规上工业企业实现营业收入125.34万亿元，同比增长1.6%，发生营 业成本107.17万亿元，增长1.8%，营业收入利润率为5.29%，同比下降0.08个百分点。 在当前内外环境不确定性持续加剧的大背景下，规上工业企业顶住压力，迎难而上，取得如此成绩可谓 来之不易。尽管规上工业企业的营业收入同比小幅增长、营业收入利润率未能同步跟进，但亮点也相当 明显，如规上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%，拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点；规上高技 术制造业利润前11个月同比增长10.0%，较前10个月加快2.0个百分点，增速高于全部规上工业平均水平 9.9个百分点。这些数据凸显出当前经济正处于新旧动能转换、爬坡升级的尖峰时刻。 2025.12.29 此外，推动企业走出增产不增收的困局，关键是改革，在经济整体上打破垄断，基于需求端而非资产端 来展现国家战 ...

在当前内外环境不确定性持续加剧的大背景下，规上工业企业顶住压力，迎难而上，取得如此成绩可 谓来之不易。尽管规上工业企业的营业收入同比小幅增长、营业收入利润率未能同步跟进，但亮点也 相当明显，如规上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%，拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点； 规上高技术制造业利润前11个月同比增长10.0%，较前10个月加快2.0个百分点，增速高于全部规 上工业平均水平9.9个百分点。这些数据凸显出当前经济正处于新旧动能转换、爬坡升级的尖峰时 刻。 经济在爬坡升级中，新生力量虽朝气蓬勃，但对整个经济的支撑能力尚有限，要保持经济行稳致远， 对现有经济结构进行有效的损益分析和风险管控是必要前提。 当前经济工作需存量化险与增量助推两手布局。最新数据反映出规上工业企业的存量化险工作任务较 重。11月末，规上工业企业应收账款28.40万亿元，同比增长5.5%；产成品存货6.92万亿元，增长 4.6%；产成品存货周转天数同比增加0.6天；应收账款平均回收期同比增加3.7天。1~11月，规上 工业企业每百元营业收入中的成本为85.50元，同比增加0.18元。这些数据背后凸显的是，稍有不 慎，存量资产就面临不良 ...

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]

在需求端，池陈森认为国内整体需求呈缓慢复苏态势，大的投资机会集中在具备新增增量需求的局部领 域，创新是核心驱动力。"创新既能够挖掘国内未被满足的需求，也能助力企业走向海外开拓市场，创 新药方向未来将持续释放潜力。"他强调。 专题：2025中国企业竞争力年会 "2025中国企业竞争力年会"于12月9日至10日在北京举行，安信基金成长投资部副总经理池陈森在演讲 中指出，从需求与供给两端切入分析，医药领域尤其是创新药与医疗器械出海板块，以及供给侧出清后 的传统医药细分领域，蕴藏着显著的投资机会。 "2025中国企业竞争力年会"于12月9日至10日在北京举行，安信基金成长投资部副总经理池陈森在演讲 中指出，从需求与供给两端切入分析，医药领域尤其是创新药与医疗器械出海板块，以及供给侧出清后 的传统医药细分领域，蕴藏着显著的投资机会。 在需求端，池陈森认为国内整体需求呈缓慢复苏态势，大的投资机会集中在具备新增增量需求的局部领 域，创新是核心驱动力。"创新既能够挖掘国内未被满足的需求，也能助力企业走向海外开拓市场，创 新药方向未来将持续释放潜力。"他强调。 医疗器械出海是另一大需求增量亮点。池陈森表示，国内优质器械企业的海 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail chain pharmacy industry [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that leading pharmacies are beginning to recover from a challenging phase, with a focus on the growth potential in 2026 driven by both organic and external factors [2][3]. - The retail pharmacy market in China is projected to reach a retail scale of 611.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.8% due to factors such as population decrease and changes in healthcare insurance [3]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Yifeng Pharmacy, Dazhenglin, and Laobaixing, while also suggesting attention to Yixintang, Jianzhijia, and Shuyupingmin [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The retail pharmacy market is experiencing a contraction in supply due to increased competition, with the number of physical pharmacies exceeding 700,000 in 2024, a 60% increase since 2014 [3]. - The report notes a recovery trend in the market, with a sequential growth of 6.7% in September 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of 1.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [3]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand side is showing signs of recovery, particularly in essential medicine categories, with a 6.9% sequential growth in drug retail sales in September 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that the concentration of leading pharmacy chains is expected to increase as smaller chains face operational challenges, leading to closures [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that leading pharmacy chains will achieve recovery through both internal growth driven by rising flu cases and external growth via acquisitions, with a current low penetration of direct stores at about 1.5% [3][4]. - The long-term outlook remains positive for industry concentration, with expectations for continued growth in the leading pharmacy chains [3].

Core Insights - The current land market has undergone a significant transformation, with only four to five leading companies now capable of acquiring land, compared to the previous thirty to forty competitors [1][2] - This shift has enhanced the bargaining power of these leading companies in negotiations with local governments, resulting in a transfer of market downward pressure to the local government side [1][2] - The decline in land prices and the improvement in land planning conditions are key indicators of this market change [1][2] - Leading companies can achieve substantial sales within six months of acquiring land, with new project net profit margins reaching over 10% [1][2] - The ongoing supply-side clearance, optimization of competitive landscape, and concentration of market share have allowed leading companies to thrive even during industry downturns [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the founder of Banxia Investment, Li Bei, outlines a three-stage path for a bull market, starting with valuation recovery and moving towards a comprehensive reallocation of wealth driven by the wealth effect [1] - The first stage of the bull market involves a gradual recovery of stock market valuations relative to fixed income markets, with risk premiums returning to mid-levels but not reaching extremes [1] - The second stage is contingent on investors seeing tangible improvements in data and corporate earnings before further market entry [1] Group 2 - The third stage is characterized by a wave of comprehensive reallocation, including the migration of household savings, restructuring of domestic asset allocations, and the return of global capital to the Chinese market [1] - Li Bei predicts that if China rebounds in two years, the domestic industry will regain high profitability and vitality after supply-side clearing, while AI investments in the U.S. are likely to slow down, raising doubts about the sustainability of high fiscal deficits [1][3] - Multiple factors may trigger a global asset allocation migration, leading to capital flowing back into the Chinese market [1][3]