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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250731
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 01:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].