Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Data Weekly Report [1] - Author: He Xiaoqin (Senior Analyst), Qian Jiayin (Contact) from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: February 1, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest variety in the polyester industry chain [15] - Before the Spring Festival, the high - level volatility of PX increases, with limited downside space and a reverse spread of monthly differences. The PTA unilateral trend is strong before the holiday, with a 5 - 9 monthly difference reverse spread. MEG has a clear lower - level support, with limited upside rebound space [3][4][5] Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX monthly spread weakens, with PX internal and external markets generally rising first and then falling, and PXN回调. The gasoline inventory continues to rise, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy weakens [22][23][28] - The PX - MX spread reached a high of 170 US dollars/ton during the week, and the Asian MX blending oil economy decreased significantly. The toluene disproportionation unit profit improved significantly [41][50] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Domestic production: The domestic production start - up rate is at a historical high. The 800,000 - ton PX unit of Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and the domestic unit start - up rate rose to 89.2%. The December PX domestic production was 3.46 million tons [56][61] - Import: In December, the import volume was 930,000 tons. The Asian PX unit start - up rate this week was 81.2% (+0.2%). In November, PX imports from South Korea and Japan continued to increase, while those from Brunei decreased [63] - Inventory: In December, the Longzhong PX inventory was 4.45 million tons (+6) [89] PTA Valuation and Profit - The basis and monthly spread are weak. The PTA price has risen sharply, the basis has increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread is weak due to increased supply pressure [96][97][101] - The PTA processing fee has been significantly repaired. The PTA spot processing fee has rebounded to 398 yuan/ton, and the polyester link profit is compressed by the upstream [105][106] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate remains at 76.6% without significant change. The 1 - million - ton unit of Sichuan Energy Investment recently restarted, the 2.5 - million - ton unit of Dushan Energy Phase II is expected to be overhauled at the end of January, and the 1.25 - million - ton unit of Zhuhai Ineos is shut down for maintenance [108] - Demand: The terminal orders of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving show differentiation. Export orders are good, but some re - flow orders have not increased significantly. Enterprises are cautious about pre - holiday stockpiling, and most enterprises have taken holidays [4] - Inventory: The total inventory is at a low level, and the inventory accumulation intensity will be relatively large in February [128] MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral price is in a volatile market. The relative valuation continues to decline, and Satellite Petrochemical will switch to produce plastics in February [148][154] - The profit of coal - based units is - 110 yuan/ton (+20). Oil - based units continue to be in a loss pattern, with the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol at - 1217 yuan/ton (-160), the profit of externally purchased ethylene - based ethylene glycol at - 187 yuan/ton (+30), the MTO profit at - 1601 (+20), and the profit of ethane cracking - based ethylene glycol at 366 (+15) [157] Supply and Demand, and Inventory - Supply: The start - up rate of units has risen to 74.4% (+1.3%). The 500,000 - ton unit of Sinochem Quanzhou and the 500,000 - ton unit of Ningbo Fude have restarted. From January to February, the ethylene glycol import volume will remain at a high level, with a monthly average of over 700,000 tons [166] - Inventory: Attention should be paid to the changes in units in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The port inventory data in East China is provided [170][176] Polyester Segment Start - up - The polyester start - up rate is 84.2% (-1.5%). Multiple sets of units have been overhauled, restarted, and some unit loads have been adjusted. The comprehensive polyester load has decreased. It is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [182][185] Inventory - The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not great [190][192] Export - From January to December, the total polyester export volume was 14.61 million tons, +13.5%. The total export volume of polyester filament was 4.29 million tons, +10.6%; the total export volume of polyester bottle chips was 6.46 million tons, +10.1%; the total export volume of polyester chips was 1.34 million tons, +21%; the total export volume of polyester staple fiber was 1.7 million tons, +28.2%; the total export volume of polyester film was 0.82 million tons, +15.5% [193] Profit - The losses of filament factories have expanded, while the profits of staple fiber and bottle chips are acceptable [195] Terminal: Weaving, Textile and Apparel Start - up - The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 34% (-15%), and the start - up rate of texturing machines is 53% (-13%). Downstream texturing and weaving enterprises have entered the Spring Festival holiday season [217][219] Orders - Downstream orders are seasonally weak overall, but export orders are eye - catching, especially orders from the United States. Some enterprises reported that recent US clothing orders increased by 14% year - on - year, and Southeast Asian orders have also returned, but the overall order volume has not increased significantly [219] Inventory - The finished product inventory has decreased, and the grey fabric inventory has accumulated again. Weaving enterprises have stocked raw materials until the end of January [220][221] Retail and Export - China's textile and clothing retail: From January to December, it was 135.97 billion yuan, +3.5% [224] - China's textile and clothing export: From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 137.8 billion US dollars, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.4% [230] - Overseas textile and clothing retail: The US and European clothing retail data have risen strongly. In October, US retail was 19.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. In 2025 from January to October, US clothing retail was 180 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In December, UK retail was 6.766 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to December, UK retail was 50.6 billion pounds, with a year - on - year increase of 6.23% [234][238] - Overseas textile and clothing inventory: It has declined slightly month - on - month [240]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for PX, PTA, and MEG are all "trending strongly" [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX has a medium - term unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections and a 3 - 5 reverse spread operation due to supply relaxation and a focus on the capital side, and the unilateral price remains strong due to downstream pre - spring demand [4] - PTA has a unilateral upward trend, with more pre - holiday corrections. Future supply and demand will be weak, leading to a stock - building situation. There is support around the 5100 - 5200 range, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [5] - MEG should be bought on dips and traded in the 3800 - 4200 range. Supply pressure is high, but the downside is limited, and the short - term trend is still strong [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the PX主力 was 7376, down 254 or 3.33%. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 56, down 6 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the PTA主力 was 5258, down 180 or 3.31%. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at 16, down 14 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the MEG主力 was 3938, down 56 or 1.40%. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 92, up 5 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the PF主力 was 6662, down 164 or 2.40%. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 46, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the SC主力 was 446.7, down 10.6 or 2.32%. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at 8.3, up 12.6 from the previous day [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **PX**: The PX CFR China price was 902.67 dollars/ton, down 27 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 357.42 dollars/ton, up 17.75 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The PTA East China price was 5220 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 415.64 yuan/ton, up 51.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The MEG spot price was 3827 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha**: The MOPJ naphtha price was 568.5 dollars/ton, down 4.75 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/barrel, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Brent**: The Dated Brent price was 69.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2] 3.3 Fundamental Data - **PX**: An 800,000 - ton PX plant in South China is restarting and expected to produce products soon. The PX spot price dropped significantly on January 27, and the 2 - month MOPJ naphtha price was around 563 dollars/ton CFR [3] - **MEG**: From January 26 to February 1, the planned arrival quantity at the main ports was about 147,000 tons [3] - **Polyester**: On January 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of about 30%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 68% [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral trend is moderately strong in the medium term [1] - PTA: Supply pressure persists, high - level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads [1] - MEG: Supply pressure remains high, trend is weak [1] Core Views - PX: The unilateral trend is strong. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG. Despite the restart of some devices and the high operating rate, the cost support and demand factors make the unilateral strong pattern clear [5]. - PTA: With positive demand feedback and cost support, it should be regarded as unilaterally strong. Although the inventory accumulation in November narrows, the supply is still in excess after some device overhauls end, and the processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is short - term oscillating weakly. The supply pressure persists, and it is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads. Although the supply pressure eases slightly in the short term, it remains in the long term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - A 300,000 - ton/year polyester bottle - chip device in the southwest has been shut down for maintenance since early November, with a total of 600,000 tons of production shut down at the factory [3]. - The price increase in the previous trading day was mainly driven by increased stock market activity. The sudden increase in market activity may be due to the entry of external funds [3]. - The PX market is currently quite stable fundamentally, and there is no obvious weakness in the short term. The main support for PX comes from China's higher PTA production capacity, especially from new factories launched this year [3]. - Formosa Chemicals & Fiber Corp. restarted its 720,000 - ton/year PX production line in Mailiao on November 4 after completing the planned turnaround, and has been operating at about 70% capacity since then. A 350,000 - ton/year production line has been shut down since early April for planned turnaround [5]. Futures Price and Spread Data | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 6780 | - 40 | - 0.59% | | PTA Main | 4664 | - 24 | - 0.51% | | MEG Main | 3942 | 18 | 0.46% | | PF Main | 6214 | - 30 | - 0.48% | | SC Main | 460.6 | 0.2 | 0.04% | | Calendar Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX1 - 5 | 0 | 14 | - 14 | | PTA1 - 5 | - 64 | - 62 | - 2 | | MEG1 - 5 | - 77 | - 80 | 3 | | PF12 - 1 | - 38 | - 34 | - 4 | | SC11 - 12 | 0.9 | 1 | - 0.1 | | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 825.67 | 826 | - 0.33 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 4572 | 4540 | 32 | | MEG Spot | 4013 | 3978 | 35 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 581.75 | 575.75 | 6 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 63.61 | 63.66 | - 0.05 | | Spot Processing Fee | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 250.25 | 238.5 | 11.75 | | PTA Processing Fee | 120.65 | 141.93 | - 21.29 | | Short - Fiber Processing Fee | 259.02 | 267.68 | - 8.66 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Fee | 54.06 | 99.6 | - 45.54 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | - 4.34 | - 4.34 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - PTA trend intensity: 0 (neutral) - MEG trend intensity: - 1 (weakly bearish) [5] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - Supply: Fushun Petrochemical and Formosa Plastics' devices restarted, and the domestic and Asian PX operating rates reached new highs. Yulong Petrochemical was sanctioned, resulting in weak MX prices. Although the short - process profit is strong, the operating rate has not actually recovered [5]. - Demand: Some PTA devices were shut down or had reduced loads, and the PTA load declined. The stock prices of polyester leaders rose sharply, but the actual probability of production reduction is low [5]. PTA - Supply: Some factories without supporting facilities reduced their loads, and the inventory accumulation in November narrowed. After the overhaul of some devices such as Xin凤鸣 ended, the supply was still in excess [6]. - Demand: The polyester load remained high (91.5% in November), and the rigid demand for PTA was acceptable [6]. MEG - Supply: The overall operating rate of MEG declined this week, with multiple devices shut down or reducing loads. However, Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 800,000 - ton device is about to restart, and the long - term supply pressure remains due to concentrated imports [6]. - Demand: Downstream weaving orders weakened locally, and the operating rate declined. However, the polyester load remained high in the short term, providing some demand support [6]. Valuation and Strategy - PX: The PXN spread has risen to a high level, and producers can hedge at high prices. It is recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA/MEG [5]. - PTA: The processing fee of the 01 contract has reached a new low of 219 Yuan/ton, and the spot processing fee is 173 Yuan/ton. The processing fee may continue to be under pressure [6]. - MEG: It is recommended to maintain the backwardation operation in calendar spreads [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market faces supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. - The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers, forming a high - level oscillation platform, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. - Various metal markets, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different trends. For example, copper consumption is a concern, aluminum has short - term upward resistance but large market divergence, and zinc has opportunities for cross - market reverse arbitrage [3][4][7]. - Energy - related products like fuel oil and asphalt have different trends. Fuel oil is affected by crude oil, and asphalt is in a downward trend due to weak demand [21][22]. - Agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and livestock products like pigs and eggs have their own market characteristics. For example, soybeans may have inventory reduction in Q1 next year, and pig prices may have a second bottom in H1 next year [36][41]. - Financial products like stocks and bonds also show specific trends. The stock market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term, and the bond market's yield curve steepening may end [48][49]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.36%. The US government shutdown impacts the employment and jet - fuel demand. The supply - demand pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year needs to be released, and short - term sanctions risks on Russian oil are easing. Consider bearish strategies [2]. Precious Metals - US economic data was stable last week, but the government shutdown brings uncertainties. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it's advisable to wait and see [2]. Copper - Last Friday, copper prices oscillated negatively. The market focuses on copper consumption. China's un - wrought copper imports in October were low, and the US consumer confidence index was poor. Wait for the social inventory data and expect the previous up - rush to cool down. Wait and see [3]. Aluminum - On Friday, Shanghai aluminum prices declined. Since October, domestic inventory and spot performance have been neutral. Macroeconomic sentiment dominates, and the short - term upward resistance is around 21,800 yuan. The high index position reflects large market divergence, so beware of capital flow changes [4]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,900 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments are unclear. It follows aluminum price fluctuations and has no independent market for now [5]. Alumina - Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, inventory is rising, and the supply - surplus situation persists. The spot price decline slows but remains at a discount. It will operate weakly with limited rebound space [6]. Zinc - Domestic zinc ore supply is tightening, and smelting costs are rising. The zinc ingot export window is open, and domestic inventory is falling. There is an expectation of over 10,000 - ton delivery at LME. Consider cross - market reverse arbitrage and short - term long positions on Shanghai zinc, with the upper pressure at 23,200 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - LME lead inventory is decreasing, and the import window is closed. Domestic refineries are resuming production, with tight raw materials and strong cost support. The market is in a multi - empty situation, and Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and closed low, with weak downstream demand. Although there are news of stainless - steel plant production cuts, the implementation needs to be observed. The inventory of pure nickel decreased by 700 tons to 48,800 tons, while nickel - iron and stainless - steel inventory increased. Shanghai nickel is in a weak operation [9]. Tin - Last Friday, tin prices oscillated. There are differences in institutional inventory data. The tin market is in a game between short - term supply tightness and long - term supply stability. Tin prices are expected to decline with significant upper resistance. Consider short - selling strategies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are rising again, with active trading. The total market inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 127,000 tons. The spot is supported, and the futures price is strengthening. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is affected by capacity - control policy expectations. In November, production cuts are expected in the southwest, and downstream silicon wafers are also reducing production. The inventory pressure relief is limited, and it will oscillate in the short term [12]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon production in Sichuan and Yunnan is at a low level during the dry season, and downstream polysilicon has seasonal production cuts. It shows a supply - demand weak pattern and will oscillate [13]. Steel Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On Friday night, steel prices oscillated weakly, and Tangshan billet prices dropped by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. Rebar demand and production decreased, and the de - stocking slowed. Hot - rolled coil demand and production also declined, with a slight inventory increase. The market is under pressure, and pay attention to the support at the lower edge of the oscillation range [14]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices declined last week. Global shipments are at a high level, and domestic arrivals have increased. Port inventory is rising. Terminal demand is in the off - season, and steel demand and iron - water production are decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. Coke - Coke prices oscillated upward. After the third - round price increase, there is an expectation of a fourth - round increase. Coke inventory decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices oscillated upward. Mongolian coal imports are at a high level, and terminal inventory increased slightly. The carbon - element supply is abundant, and downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate strongly [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, while manganese silicon production is rising, and inventory is slowly increasing. The price has strong bottom support [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated strongly. Iron - water production is decreasing, but export and secondary demand are rising. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. The price has strong bottom support [19]. Shipping Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - Last week, the shipping order pressure existed, and the new SCFI European route price dropped by 1.6% week - on - week. In late November, the freight rate may rise. The upside space is limited, and it's advisable to wait and see. The fire at the TPP port may affect the rotation time of the Gemini European line [20]. Energy - Related Products Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market oscillates, mainly affected by crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong, but its continuous upward momentum is limited. High - sulfur fuel oil's supply will be more abundant in the medium - term. The spread between them may widen [21]. Asphalt - Asphalt has entered the off - season. The demand in the southwest and south can't offset the weakening in the north. Social inventory has been increasing year - on - year since late October. Refineries are cutting prices, and the market is bearish [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract oscillates narrowly. The chemical and combustion demand has increased, and the inventory rate of refineries and ports has decreased. The fundamentals support the LPG price [23]. Chemical Products Urea - Affected by the new export quota, urea prices rose over the weekend. Autumn fertilizer demand is ending, and production is high with limited inventory accumulation. India's new tender and domestic export liberalization boost the market, but be cautious when chasing long [24]. Methanol - Methanol futures oscillate at a low level. Iranian gas restrictions are delayed, and port inventory is high and rising. Downstream product profits are poor, and demand is weak. It will oscillate weakly until the inventory inflection point [25]. Pure Benzene - Last week, pure benzene prices declined. Port inventory increased, and production rose. The market will consolidate in the short term and face import and demand risks in the medium term. Consider month - spread reverse arbitrage [26]. Styrene - Styrene has insufficient cost support, and the inventory is high. The price will remain weak [27]. Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene is affected by falling oil prices, and demand is weak. Polyethylene has stable factory prices but cautious downstream purchases. Polypropylene's e - commerce inventory demand is disappointing, and new supply is expected [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is high, and inventory is rising. Demand is affected by weather and exports. It will operate at a low level. Caustic soda oscillates at a low level, with weak downstream demand [29]. PX and PTA - PX supply increased, and PTA load decreased. Polyester and weaving loads changed slightly. PTA may have inventory accumulation in the medium term. Consider reverse arbitrage [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventory rose. Supply is expected to increase, and demand will weaken. Consider reverse arbitrage, and watch for possible production cuts [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and the spot market is good, but profits are squeezed. In mid - late November, demand will weaken. Bottle - chip demand is weakening, and capacity is excessive [32]. Building Materials Glass - Glass prices are weak. After the Shahe production halt, prices rose but at a slower pace. Inventory is decreasing, and costs are rising. The decline space is limited, and keep the short - put option [33]. Rubber 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - International crude oil prices oscillate, and Thai rubber prices vary. Global rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and Chinese tire production and inventory changed slightly. Rubber inventory increased, and cost support is weak. Consider oversold - rebound strategies and cross - variety arbitrage [34]. Chemical Fertilizers Soda Ash - Soda ash prices rose slightly. Supply is high, and inventory is high. The demand for heavy soda decreased due to glass production cuts. It's hard to fall in the short term [35]. Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Last Friday night, soybean prices oscillated weakly. Importing US soybeans has no price advantage, and domestic soybean inventory may decrease in Q1 next year. Watch for USDA reports and possible long - buying opportunities [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US soybean prices declined. Palm oil rebounded, and it's necessary to watch if the rebound is sustainable. Consider the possibility of short - term stabilization of palm oil [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are under pressure due to low sales and limited export markets. Domestic prices will oscillate, and pay attention to Australian rapeseed imports [38]. Bean No. 1 - Bean No. 1 prices fell from a high level. The purchase of domestic soybeans by the state reserve may support the market. Watch for policy guidance [39]. Corn - Northeast corn prices are stable and rising slightly, and Shandong's supply increased. The import tax rate on US corn changed. The market will oscillate weakly at the bottom, and watch for new trade agreements [40]. Pigs - Pig prices were stable over the weekend. The sow inventory decreased in October. Future supply pressure is large, and prices may form a second bottom in H1 next year [41]. Eggs - Egg prices declined over the weekend, and sales were slow. The laying - hen inventory is high, and chick replenishment is low. Consider short - selling at high prices [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices declined. China's cotton procurement may increase. Domestic cotton cost supports the market, but demand is average. Watch for tariff changes and export improvements [43]. Sugar - US sugar prices oscillated. International sugar supply is abundant. In China, the focus is on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the outlook for Guangxi's production is good [44]. Apples - Apple prices oscillated widely. Apple inventory decreased, but the quality is poor, and the selling - reluctance is strong. Consider short - selling strategies [45]. Wood - Wood prices are weak. Supply import is limited due to high foreign prices, and demand supports the price. Inventory is low, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. Pulp - Pulp prices oscillated upward. Port inventory decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. Demand is average, and the valuation is low. Consider long - buying at low prices or wait and see [47]. Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillated and adjusted, with most futures contracts falling. The inflation data improved, and the US consumer confidence index was low. The stock market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Keep a mid - term focus on technology and advanced manufacturing and balance with cyclical and consumer sectors [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures declined, and short - term Shibor rates rose. The export growth was lower than expected. The yield curve steepening may end [49].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of PX, PTA, and MEG in the polyester industry, covering supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is 86.3% (-1.5%), with Fushun Dahua's 700,000 - ton unit under maintenance for two months. Overseas, Hanwha's 1.13 - million - ton unit is planned to restart at the end of September, and ENEOS's 190,000 - ton unit has restarted. The overall Asian operating rate is 78.2% (-0.8%) [3][51] Demand - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), but multiple PTA units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees [3][4] Valuation - PXN is maintained at $227/ton (-$5), and the PX - MX spread is $138/ton (+$11, equivalent to 1,127 yuan/ton). The PX - MX spread may remain high in the long term due to poor gasoline - blending demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Supply - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), and multiple units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees, with new unit commissioning postponed [4][93] Demand - The terminal demand in Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry has limited improvement, with high inventory pressure and slow destocking. The future order trend is weak, and there is a risk of negative feedback on polyester production [4] Valuation - The current PTA spot processing fee has recovered to 190 yuan/ton (+82), with the 11 - contract processing fee at 240 yuan/ton and the 01 - contract processing fee at 280 yuan/ton (-9) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Supply - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains at 74.9%, with Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton unit. The coal - based operating rate is 79.4% (+2.7%). Tongliao Jinmei will undergo maintenance in mid - October, and new units are expected to increase production [5][135] Demand - The polyester industry has a mixed situation of maintenance and load - increasing, with overall load at 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand in the textile industry has limited improvement, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the fourth quarter [5] Valuation - The coal - based profit has dropped to 400 yuan/ton (-70), the naphtha - based ethylene glycol profit is - 840 yuan/ton (+10), and the MTO profit is - 1030 yuan/ton (+40) [5][132] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Production and Import Plans - In 2025, the PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons, PTA by 6 million tons, MEG by 1 million tons, and polyester fiber by 3.05 million tons. The import volume of PX in July 2025 was 780,000 tons [7][63] Group 6: Market Trends and Risks - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG is weak, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and high inventory. The main risk is policy - related risk [3][4][5]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions. The 1 - 5 month - spread is in a reverse arbitrage. Although weekend sales volume boosts the overall price of the industrial chain, it doesn't change the medium - term weak trend. PXN has short - term support starting from late August [7]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to the support of unplanned production cuts on PTA processing fees, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but high坯布 inventory and weak crude oil prices affect its performance [8]. - MEG has a weak and oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Keep the 9 - 1 spread in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. This week, both supply and demand of ethylene glycol increase, but the near - end driving force for the industrial chain is weak [9]. Market Dynamics PX - On the 12th, the price of PX decreased, with an Asian spot for October trading at 834. There was no negotiation for September at the end of the session, and the negotiation ranges for October and November were 833/840 and 821/837 respectively. The 9/10 swap changed from +5 to -1 on the 12th. The news of a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce buffered the loss in the PX market, and crude oil futures rose during the session. The PX - naphtha price spread narrowed to 263.67 dollars/ton [5]. PTA - A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, stopped on the weekend, and the restart time is to be tracked. A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting after a maintenance starting around August 1st [6]. MEG - From August 11th to 17th, the expected arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo, and Shanghai ports are 46,000 tons, 95,000 tons, 0 tons, and 0 tons respectively, with a total expected arrival at major ports of about 141,000 tons [6]. Polyester - On the 12th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of 30% - 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - PTA trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - MEG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Futures and Spot Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had price increases of 0.80%, 0.42%, 0.41%, 0.37%, and 1.19% respectively. The 9 - 1 month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC changed by 18, -8, -3, -14, and -1.3 respectively [4]. Spot - The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent changed by -1, 10, 18, 2, and -0.49 respectively. The PX - naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread changed by -7.5, 25.77, 24.14, 23.07, and 0 respectively [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].