Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, with the main contract shifting positions. The 1 - 5 month - spread is in a reverse arbitrage. Although weekend sales volume boosts the overall price of the industrial chain, it doesn't change the medium - term weak trend. PXN has short - term support starting from late August [7]. - PTA has a weak unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Under low processing fees, pay attention to the support of unplanned production cuts on PTA processing fees, and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. PTA supply decreases while demand increases, but high坯布 inventory and weak crude oil prices affect its performance [8]. - MEG has a weak and oscillating unilateral trend. Hold the mid - term position of long MEG and short PTA. Keep the 9 - 1 spread in the range of - 50 to 0 and pay attention to 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage. This week, both supply and demand of ethylene glycol increase, but the near - end driving force for the industrial chain is weak [9]. Market Dynamics PX - On the 12th, the price of PX decreased, with an Asian spot for October trading at 834. There was no negotiation for September at the end of the session, and the negotiation ranges for October and November were 833/840 and 821/837 respectively. The 9/10 swap changed from +5 to -1 on the 12th. The news of a 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff truce buffered the loss in the PX market, and crude oil futures rose during the session. The PX - naphtha price spread narrowed to 263.67 dollars/ton [5]. PTA - A 700,000 - ton PTA plant in Taiwan, China, stopped on the weekend, and the restart time is to be tracked. A 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in East China is currently restarting after a maintenance starting around August 1st [6]. MEG - From August 11th to 17th, the expected arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, Ningbo, and Shanghai ports are 46,000 tons, 95,000 tons, 0 tons, and 0 tons respectively, with a total expected arrival at major ports of about 141,000 tons [6]. Polyester - On the 12th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were average, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 52%. The sales of polyester yarns in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of 30% - 40% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - PTA trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak trend [7]. - MEG trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Futures and Spot Data Futures - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had price increases of 0.80%, 0.42%, 0.41%, 0.37%, and 1.19% respectively. The 9 - 1 month - spreads of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC changed by 18, -8, -3, -14, and -1.3 respectively [4]. Spot - The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent changed by -1, 10, 18, 2, and -0.49 respectively. The PX - naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread changed by -7.5, 25.77, 24.14, 23.07, and 0 respectively [4].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a polyester data weekly report from Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 10, 2025 [1][2] - It covers PX, PTA, and MEG, including supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies Group 2: PX Analysis Valuation - PX - naphtha spread strengthened to $268/ton from $241 last week, and PX - MX spread rose to $123/ton from $113 [4] - With potential new MX plants in August, the PX - MX spread may remain high - The PX futures monthly spread showed an upward trend, and the basis (foreign - domestic spread) strengthened in 2025 [19][21] Supply - China's PX operating rate was 82% (+0.9%), and Asia's was 73.6% (+0.2%) [3][45] - Domestic supply is abundant with plant restarts and load increases, while overseas supply in Japan and South Korea has a mix of restarts and maintenance Demand - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [3][5] - PTA processing fees dropped to 170 yuan/ton, with potential unplanned production cuts or maintenance Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct 9 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or EB for inter - commodity trading [4] Group 3: PTA Analysis Valuation - PTA spot processing fees remained around 200 - 250 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract processing fees dropped from 360 to 330 yuan/ton [5] - The basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread weakened Supply - PTA operating rate was 76.2% (+0.9%), expected to decline slightly next week [5][83] - Planned restart capacity is 470 million tons, and planned maintenance capacity is 425 million tons Demand - Bottled PET production cuts ended, but destocking was average, and load recovery is expected in late August to early September [5] - Short - fiber and filament factories' downstream profits improved slightly, but production resumption depends on terminal orders Strategy - Hold short positions for single - side trading, conduct range operations for 9 - 1 inter - period trading, and go long on PX and short on PTA or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [5] Group 4: MEG Analysis Valuation - The single - side valuation is in a volatile market, and the monthly spread declined with limited downside space [121] - MEG's relative valuation against ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics reached a high for the year Supply - Due to the arrival of previously delayed shipments and the expected restart of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 90 - million - ton new plant, domestic operating rates are rising [6] - Coal - based plants' profits are still high, and the operating rate is maintained at around 75% Demand - Similar to PTA, demand recovery depends on terminal orders [6] Strategy - Conduct range operations for single - side trading, 9 - 1 monthly spread range operations from - 50 to 0, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads for inter - period trading; go long on L and short on MEG or long on MEG and short on PTA for inter - commodity trading [6] Group 5: 2025 Polyester Raw Material Production Plan - PX: Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation in November [8] - PTA: Honggang Petrochemical's 250 - million - ton plant in June, Sanfangxiang's 300 - million - ton plant in August, and Xin Fengming's 300 - million - ton plant are planned [8] - MEG: Sichuan Zhengda Kai's 60 - million - ton plant was put into operation in May, Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, and Ningxia Kunpeng's 20 - million - ton plant [8] - Polyester: Anhui Youshun's 30 - million - ton (filament), Fujian Henghai's 30 - million - ton (filament), and other plants are planned [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The trends of PX, PTA, and MEG are all偏弱. PX is recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage and shorting PXN on rallies; PTA is suggested for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels; MEG is also recommended for monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, with a downward - driven unilateral trend [5][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - As the August 8 deadline for the peace agreement approaches, the impact of US President Donald Trump's threat to impose secondary sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Russia is uncertain. Trump deployed two nuclear - powered submarines on August 1 in response to a "highly provocative statement" by a Russian senior official. If secondary sanctions or tariffs are implemented, 4 million barrels per day of oil could be removed from the market, pushing crude oil prices above $100 per barrel [3][5]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 6812, 4744, 4405, 6444, and 527.9 respectively, with daily price changes of - 1.67%, - 1.33%, - 0.20%, - 0.31%, and - 0.64% [2]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The previous day's closing prices of PX9 - 1, PTA9 - 1, MEG9 - 1, PF9 - 1, and SC9 - 10 were 22, - 38, - 34, - 64, and 4.6 respectively, with daily price changes of - 42, - 6, - 7, - 6, and - 0.6 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The previous day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 845.67 dollars/ton, 4740 yuan/ton, 4480 yuan/ton, 603.88 dollars/ton, and 71.39 dollars/barrel respectively, with daily price changes of - 13.66, - 86, - 12, - 7.12, and - 1.31 [2]. - **Spot Processing Margins**: The previous day's spot processing margins of PX - naphtha, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil were 247.33, 192.91, 137.95, - 0.61, and - 6.01 respectively, with daily price changes of - 10.7, 7.72, 21.83, 26.76, and 0 [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a "weak - biased" trend [5]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: In August, there are no new PX maintenance plans, but some units are set to restart, while PTA device operating rates are expected to decline. PX supply - demand turns to a loose pattern, and the short - term suggestion is to short on rallies [5]. - **PTA**: The polyester factory operating rate is at a low level, and the willingness to hold raw materials has decreased. PTA factories sell at high - low basis, and the 09 contract has a bearish situation. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels [6]. - **MEG**: From a valuation perspective, the impact on the black sector is fading, and the overall valuation of coal - chemical industry is falling. The domestic device operating rate will continue to rise. It is recommended to conduct monthly spread long arbitrage at low levels, while being vigilant about the long - squeeze situation [7].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - PX: Supply and demand are weakening, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure and the roll - over of the main contract. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains at a high level. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase [3][4]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, and there is negative demand feedback. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt pressure. The unilateral trend is weak, and short positions should be held. The spot processing fee remains low, and the basis and monthly spread are both weak [5]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage. The profit of coal - based MEG plants has recovered, and the production of some ethylene oxide plants will be converted to MEG in the future [6]. Summary by Directory PX Valuation and Profit - PX unilateral price has dropped significantly, and the structure has gradually become flat. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the PX - MX spread has also declined but remains high. Asian gasoline cracking spreads are weak, and the toluene disproportionation spread has weakened, while the toluene blending profit has recovered. The aromatics blending economy has improved [20][23][24]. Supply and Demand - China's PX operating rate is 81.1% (+1.2%), and Asia's overall operating rate is 73.4% (+0.5%). There is no new PX maintenance in China in August, and some plants are restarting. Future Asian PX supply will gradually increase. PTA device operating rate is expected to decline in August, which means reduced demand for PX [3][42]. Inventory - In July, the monthly PX inventory in Longzhong dropped to 414 tons (-24) [65]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The spot supply is increasing, the basis is in a reverse arbitrage situation, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of positive monthly spread arbitrage at low levels. The spot processing fee remains at a low level, and some plants have unplanned maintenance [71][82]. Supply and Demand - The PTA device operating rate remains at 75.3% (-4.4%) and is expected to continue to decline in August. Some plants have stopped production or reduced loads. PTA exports are expected to increase in July - August, and port inventories are rising, but the total inventory accumulation is lower than expected [86][92][105]. Inventory - PTA port inventories are rising, but the cumulative increase in total inventory is lower than expected [105]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The unilateral valuation is in a volatile market, the monthly spread has declined, and the downward space is limited. The relative valuation of MEG compared to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has risen to a high level this year, and the profits of each link have significantly recovered [125][129][132]. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of MEG continues to rise. Overseas, some plants are operating at low loads or under maintenance, and imports will remain high. Domestic coal - based MEG device operating rate is 75% (+0.6%), and future loads will continue to rise [135][136]. Inventory - No relevant content provided. 2025 PX - PTA - Polyester Production Plan - PX will have a new production capacity of 300 tons from Yulong Petrochemical in the second half of the year. - PTA will have new production capacities of 600 tons from Sanfangxiang and Xin Fengming in the second half of the year. - MEG will have new production capacities of 100 tons from Yulong Petrochemical and others in the second half of the year. - Polyester will have new production capacities of 305 tons from Anhui Youshun and others throughout the year [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily investment analysis and trading strategies for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., based on their respective fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost end has a significant increase, suggest a rolling long - short spread strategy. With some device changes, the supply margin decreases, and it's recommended to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies [4][9]. - **PTA**: Supported by cost, suggest a long - short spread strategy. New device launches increase supply pressure. The basis is weak, and the 9 - 1 spread is worth attention. Polyester production and sales have local surges, and the start - up rate may bottom out in the short term [4][9]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still weak, suggest a reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to the supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts. Port inventory is decreasing, but the 09 contract has delivery pressure. Consider shorting MEG and going long on L [4][10]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a range. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest have declined. The tire industry has high inventory and low start - up rate due to weak demand [11][12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is weak, but the downside space is narrowing. The futures price, trading volume, and open interest of butadiene rubber have decreased. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the port and production enterprise inventories of butadiene have declined significantly, providing valuation support [15][16][17]. Asphalt - It follows the strong trend of crude oil with small - step increases. The futures price has increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The refinery start - up rate and inventory rate have decreased. The capacity utilization rate, device maintenance volume, and shipment volume of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt have changed [18][26][31]. LLDPE - The trend still faces pressure. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has decreased. The spot price has a partial small increase. Macroscopically, pay attention to the trade - war risk in August. The cost is supported by crude oil, but the supply pressure is increasing [32][33]. PP - The spot market fluctuates narrowly, and the trading is light. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The production enterprise price is mostly stable, and the downstream is cautious [36][37]. Caustic Soda - Pay attention to the delivery pressure. The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price in Shandong are provided. The market is in the off - season, with insufficient upward momentum but strong cost support. The 08 - contract warehouse receipts may impact the market [39][40][41]. Pulp - It is expected to move weakly in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have declined. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high port inventory and weak demand in the paper market [44][46]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The spot price in different regions is stable, and the market shipment is average [49][50]. Methanol - It is under pressure and moves in a range. The futures price has decreased, and the trading volume and open interest have increased. The spot price has a partial increase, but the futures decline in the afternoon weakens the market atmosphere [53][56]. Urea - The pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price has a slight decline, and the open interest has decreased. The enterprise inventory has increased due to weak domestic demand and less - than - expected exports [58][59]. Styrene - The profit is being compressed. The futures price has increased, and the non - integrated and integrated profits have decreased. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation stage, and it's recommended to short styrene [61][62]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price has a slight increase, and the open interest has increased. The enterprise device load is increasing, and downstream demand is average, with the market expected to be stable and fluctuate in the short term [63]. PVC - It is expected to move weakly in the short term. The futures price and the basis are provided. The supply and demand fundamentals are both weak, with high production, high inventory, and limited improvement from the anti - involution policy [65][66][67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it is still strong in the short term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price shows a strong range movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to rise [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold short positions in the 10 - contract. The futures price of different contracts and the freight index of different routes are provided. The freight index of European and US - West routes has different changes, and the shipping capacity data is also presented [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 0. The recommended strategies are month - spread positive arbitrage and shorting PXN at high levels [1][7]. - PTA should be concerned about the implementation of polyester filament factory production cuts, with a trend strength of 0. A month - spread reverse arbitrage operation is advised [1][7]. - MEG is in a unilateral oscillating market, with a trend strength of 1. The suggestions are to conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and not to chase short positions due to low valuation [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On July 9, the price of PX rose. One August Asian spot was traded at $855, and one September Asian spot was traded at $847. The end - of - day valuation was $850/ton, up $3 from the previous day. The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session, and the current estimate for August MOPJ is $594/ton CFR. However, the sentiment in the downstream PTA and polyester sectors remains weak [3]. - **PTA**: In China, on July 9, several major polyester yarn and fiber producers were discussing a new round of production cut, but no definite decision had been made as of that date [5]. - **MEG**: On July 9, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,347 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for late August was also 4,347 yuan/ton. The average spot price in the Ningbo market was 4,362 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in the South China market was 4,365 yuan/ton [6]. - **Polyester**: On July 9, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved moderately compared to the previous day, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 59%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an estimated average sales - to - production ratio of just over 40% [6]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of PTA is 0, also indicating a neutral view [7]. - The trend strength of MEG is 1, suggesting a slightly bullish view [7]. Views and Suggestions - **PX**: Conduct month - spread positive arbitrage and short PXN at high levels. The supply - demand pattern of PX is tight due to the upcoming commissioning of Sanfangxiang's 3 million - ton PTA plant and the planned maintenance of South Korea's Hanwha's 1.2 million - ton PX plant in August. PXN is at a high valuation and shows a weakening trend [7]. - **PTA**: Perform month - spread reverse arbitrage operations. The basis has dropped significantly, factories are selling, and traders' positive arbitrage positions are being stopped out. Supply will be marginally looser from mid - July, and it is expected that PTA will continue to accumulate inventory with increasing supply and decreasing demand [7]. - **MEG**: Due to the strong coal price at the cost end, relevant coal - chemical products have rebounded. With a low valuation, conduct basis and month - spread positive arbitrage and avoid chasing short positions [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term weak and volatile market. With multiple device overhauls postponed, supply is expected to rise again in July. Overseas device restarts also increase the operating rate. PXN is under pressure, and it is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA shows a positive basis spread arbitrage, a reverse calendar spread arbitrage, and a weak and volatile unilateral trend. The long - PX short - PTA position should be stopped for profit. Demand is weak in July, and PTA will start to accumulate inventory from late July [8]. - MEG has a positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral valuation is not recommended to short. Although the 09 contract is relatively weak, the downside space of the 9 - 1 spread is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and go long on dips for the unilateral position [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China postponed its overhaul to late July for two months. A 9 - million - ton PX device in East China reduced its load in July and canceled the original overhaul plan. Some overseas devices restarted. By the end of the week, the domestic PX operating rate dropped to 81%, and the Asian total operating rate rose to 74.1%. Asian PX prices continued to decline on July 4 due to weak downstream demand [4]. - Polyester: A 600,000 - ton polyester device in Huzhou is under overhaul, and the restart time is undetermined [7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - PTA trend intensity: - 1, indicating a weak outlook. - MEG trend intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. Views and Suggestions - PX: With multiple device overhauls postponed, it is a short - term weak and volatile market. Pay attention to the compression position of the far - month PXN. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies [8]. - PTA: Conduct positive basis spread arbitrage and reverse calendar spread arbitrage. The unilateral trend is weak and volatile. Stop the profit of the long - PX short - PTA position. Pay attention to the crude oil trend [8]. - MEG: Conduct positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage. Do not short the unilateral valuation. Go long on dips for the 9 - 1 spread and the unilateral position [9].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester market is in a weak and volatile state in the short - term due to the off - season of demand. Multiple plant maintenance delays have led to an expected increase in supply in July. It is recommended to short PXN on rallies. - For PTA, it is advisable to conduct basis positive spreads, reverse calendar spreads, and the unilateral trend is weakly volatile. Take profit on the long PX and short PTA strategy. - For MEG, conduct basis and calendar positive spreads, and avoid shorting based on valuation. Consider going long on dips for the unilateral position. [3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral trend of PX is weak, and the calendar spreads are also weakening. The PXN has fallen from a high level, and the gasoline cracking spread has declined, leading to weaker aromatics blending demand. Aromatic prices show a differentiated trend, with toluene and pure benzene prices weak, while PX prices are strong, and disproportionation profits have recovered. [20][26][43] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PX has slightly decreased. In June, the domestic production of PX rebounded to 319 tons, and the operating rate this week was 81% (-2.8%). The import volume in May rebounded to 77.3 tons. The monthly inventory in June decreased to 435 tons (-16). [55][64][83] 3.2 PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis of PTA has dropped significantly as spot traders have exited basis trades. The 9 - 1 calendar spread continues to focus on reverse spreads, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased to a low level. The cost has risen, the profit of PX has declined, and the profit of PTA has remained at a low level. [95][97][102] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of PTA has remained stable. In June, the production volume was 629 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4%. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 27 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June - July. The social inventory last week was 215 (-5) tons, and the de - stocking slope has slowed down. [107][113][129] 3.3 MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral valuation of MEG is in a volatile state, and the calendar spreads have declined. The profits of each production link have weakened month - on - month, and the MTO and ethylene - imported ethylene glycol production are suffering severe losses. [140][148] - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of MEG has decreased month - on - month. The operating rate in July is expected to remain in the 66 - 70% range. The import volume in May was 60 tons, and it is expected to rebound in June. The inventory is at a low level. [156][160][167] 3.4 Polyester - **Valuation and Profit** - No specific valuation and profit information is provided in the report. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory** - The operating rate of polyester is 90.2% (-0.6%). The production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of polyester filament has increased significantly. [171][177][179] 3.5 Terminal: Weaving, Clothing No specific information is provided in the report.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Positive outlook for single - side price, long PX short SC, long PX short PTA to continue holding, month - spread positive set [5][6] - PTA: Single - side slightly bullish in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit, month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - MEG: Single - side stable in a range, long PTA short MEG to take profit [6] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PX: Supply continues to shrink, maintaining a tight - balance de - stocking pattern in July. Asian operating rate will decline further. PTA demand is stable with a slight increase. Single - side price is expected to be strong and month - spread is mainly positive set [5] - PTA: Cost is supported, but month - spread is under pressure. Supply - demand will shift from rapid de - stocking to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis should be reverse - set at high [5][6] - MEG: Supply has decreased due to device maintenance, but imports are increasing. Polyester plants have many production - cut plans. Cost support has recovered, and shorting is not recommended [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Closing Prices and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had closing prices of 6752, 4778, 4271, 6526, and 3600 respectively, with daily changes of 0.4%, 0.2%, - 0.5%, - 0.4%, and - 2.5% [2] - **Month - spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX (9 - 1), PTA (9 - 1), MEG (9 - 1), PF(7 - 8), and PX - EB07 had month - spreads of 206, 172, - 43, 92, and - 421 respectively, with daily changes of 8, - 2, - 9, - 20, and 168 [2] - **Inter - variety Spreads and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA09 - 0.65PX09, PTA09 - MEG09, PTA07 - PF07, PF07 processing margin, and PTA09 - LU09 had spreads of 389, 507, - 1624, 939, and 1178 respectively, with daily changes of - 12, 30, 64, - 50, and 31 [2] - **Basis and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PX, PTA, MEG, PF basis, and PX - naphtha spread were 281, 270, 65, 124, and 283 respectively, with daily changes of - 30, 15, - 7, 36, and no change [2] - **Warehouse Receipts and Daily Changes**: On June 27, 2025, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PX, and SC warehouse receipts were 35022, 5847, 5464, 0, and 5911000 respectively, with daily changes of - 930, - 100, no change, - 1805, and no change [2] 2. Market Overview - **PX**: A 350,000 - ton PX device in a Japanese factory has unexpectedly shut down for maintenance, expected to last about a month. A domestic mainstream supplier's July PX contract advance payment is 7250 yuan/ton (acceptance), and PTA is 5300 yuan/ton [4] - **PTA**: A 200,000 - ton IPA device in East China has restarted after a shutdown on June 9 [4] - **MEG**: On June 27, the spot and futures prices of MEG are provided, along with the monthly settlement reference price and average price [4] - **Polyester**: On June 27, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, with an average sales rate of 30% - 40% [4] 3. Market Views - **PX**: Supply contraction, tight - balance de - stocking in July. Asian operating rate to decline. PTA demand stable with a slight increase. Single - side price expected to be strong, month - spread positive set [5] - **PTA**: Cost supported, but month - spread under pressure. Supply - demand to shift to a loose pattern. Month - spread and basis recommended to reverse set at high [5][6] - **MEG**: Supply decreased due to maintenance, imports increasing. Polyester production - cut plans. Cost support recovered, shorting not recommended [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - For PX and PTA, due to cost collapse and valuation decline, a monthly spread reverse arbitrage is recommended, and holding long PX and short PTA positions is advised. PTA is entering a pattern of inventory accumulation as new installations are put into operation and polyester factories cut production [11]. - MEG's upside space may be limited. With the return of Iranian ethylene glycol plants and the concentrated restart of domestic coal - based plants, MEG is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. - Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly, mainly influenced by factors such as inventory changes and market sentiment [12]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, due to high supply and a supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate, fundamental pressure remains high [19]. - Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, affected by factors such as production volume, inventory, and oil price fluctuations [20]. - LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Although there are factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel and weak demand, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - PP's spot price is falling, but low - price transactions are relatively good. The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound as the near - month contract subsidizes the premium. In the second half of the year, the pattern of high profits and high production will continue to affect it [43]. - Pulp is expected to fluctuate, influenced by factors such as market supply and demand and inventory [47]. - Glass's original sheet price is stable, with most downstream enterprises purchasing on demand and the market in a wait - and - see state [53]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate, affected by factors such as spot price, inventory, and trading volume [56]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term due to speculative factors. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions [61]. - Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the second half of the year, due to increased supply and weak demand, the high - profit state is difficult to maintain [64]. - Soda ash's spot market has little change, with weakening prices and general downstream demand [68]. - LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening, affected by factors such as futures prices, spreads, and industrial chain operating rates [73]. - PVC's trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit [85]. - Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market reaching a phased high [90]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly, affected by factors such as futures prices, freight rates, and exchange rates [92]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PX's main contract closed at 6758, PTA's at 4790, and MEG's at 4323. The daily changes were 0.0%, 0.3%, and - 0.2% respectively. The PX (9 - 1) monthly spread was 206, PTA (9 - 1) was 178, and MEG (9 - 1) was - 14 [5]. - **Market Overview**: PX prices fell on the 25th, following the decline of upstream crude oil. The downstream polyester market provided limited support. Some PTA producers considered reducing their operating rates. However, the increase in PTA production capacity in the second half of the year may support PX prices [8]. - **Market Outlook**: PX and PTA are recommended for monthly spread reverse arbitrage. MEG's upside space is limited, and it is expected to be weak in the medium term [11]. 2. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the rubber's main contract's daily - session closing price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the night - session closing price was 13,905 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,733 lots, and the open interest was 156,038 lots [14]. - **Industry News**: As of June 22, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.70%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 128.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [15]. - **Market Outlook**: Rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [12]. 3. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of cis - polybutadiene rubber closed at 11,225 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 63,768 lots and an open interest of 52,975 lots [17]. - **Industry News**: As of June 25, 2025, the inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased slightly [17]. - **Market Outlook**: Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face fundamental pressure in the medium term [19]. 4. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, BU2507 closed at 3,584 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22%, and BU2508 closed at 3,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.22% [21]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the domestic asphalt refinery's planned production volume was 148.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.2% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. As of June 23, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 3.4%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.0% [32]. - **Market Outlook**: Asphalt is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [20]. 5. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, L2509 closed at 7,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%. The 09 - contract basis was 9, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 47 [35]. - **Market Situation**: The LLDPE market price partially declined. The futures market was weak, and the demand side was weak. Although there were some factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, geopolitical issues may still cause repeated fluctuations [35]. - **Market Outlook**: LLDPE is expected to fluctuate in the short term [35]. 6. PP - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PP2509 closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The 09 - contract basis was 46, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 58 [40]. - **Market News**: The domestic PP market declined by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the downstream demand was general, but low - price transactions were relatively good [40]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is affected by factors such as futures trends, supply, and demand [40]. 7. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period [43]. - **Market Situation**: The futures price of caustic soda continued to fall due to the price cut of Shandong alumina enterprises. However, the 07 - contract is facing delivery, and the short - term market may rebound [43]. - **Market Outlook**: Caustic soda is expected to have a short - term rebound and face pressure in the second half of the year [43]. 8. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of pulp closed at 5,070 yuan/ton during the day session and 5,072 yuan/ton during the night session. The trading volume was 299,380 lots, and the open interest was 165,019 lots [48]. - **Industry News**: The futures main contract SP2509 fell by 2.01% to 5,070 yuan/ton. Downstream paper mills' procurement volume decreased year - on - year, and port inventory remained high [49]. - **Market Outlook**: Pulp is expected to fluctuate [47]. 9. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FG509 closed at 1,017 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20%. The 09 - contract basis was 995, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 1006 [54]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass original sheet price was generally stable, with some small fluctuations. Most downstream enterprises purchased on demand, and the market was in a wait - and - see state [54]. - **Market Outlook**: Glass's original sheet price is stable [53]. 10. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of methanol closed at 2,391 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 1,052,872 lots, and the open interest was 904,459 lots [57]. - **Market News**: The methanol spot price index decreased by 15.33. The port inventory increased significantly this week [59]. - **Market Outlook**: Methanol is expected to fluctuate [56]. 11. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the main contract of urea closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 42 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 551,401 lots, and the open interest was 255,236 lots [61]. - **Industry News**: On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 109.59 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. In the short term, due to some off - market information, the market had a large - scale rebound [62]. - **Market Outlook**: Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and face supply pressure and weak domestic demand in the medium term [61]. 12. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the price of styrene 2506 was 7,527 yuan/ton, an increase of 97 yuan compared to the previous day. The EB - BZ spread was 1315 [64]. - **Market Situation**: In the second half of the year, the supply of styrene is expected to increase significantly, and the demand is expected to be weak, leading to inventory accumulation and profit compression [66]. - **Market Outlook**: Styrene is expected to fluctuate in the short term [64]. 13. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, SA2509 closed at 1,173 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The 09 - contract basis was 127, and the 09 - 01 monthly spread was 12 [70]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable with a weakening trend. The supply decreased slightly, and downstream demand was general [70]. - **Market Outlook**: Soda ash's spot market has little change [68]. 14. LPG - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, PG2508 closed at 4,226 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.73%, and PG2509 closed at 4,139 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.89%. The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 08 - contract was 574 [75]. - **Market News**: In July 2025, the expected price of Saudi CP propane decreased, and many PDH devices were under maintenance [82]. - **Market Outlook**: LPG's spot is firm, and its structure is strengthening [73]. 15. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 4,871 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4,750 yuan/ton, the basis was - 121, and the 9 - 1 monthly spread was - 73 [85]. - **Market Situation**: The PVC market was affected by factors such as conflict mitigation between Iran and Israel, high production, and high inventory, with a weak trend [85]. - **Market Outlook**: PVC's trend is weak [85]. 16. Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, FU2508 closed at 2,999 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.88%, and LU2508 closed at 3,716 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65%. The spread between LU08 and FU08 was 717 [90]. - **Market Outlook**: Fuel oil's downward trend continues, and low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil [90]. 17. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: On June 25, 2025, EC2506 closed at 1,885.3 points, a decrease of 0.21%, EC2508 closed at 1,740.2 points, a decrease of 3.07%, and EC2510 closed at 1,292.8 points, a decrease of 2.31% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to operate weakly [92].