Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth, with a focus on precision and efficiency in implementation [1][2][8]. Fiscal Policy Support for Economic Development - The necessity for enhanced fiscal policy support during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is highlighted, particularly to maintain an average annual GDP growth rate of at least 4.5% to achieve long-term strategic goals by 2035 [2][3]. - The fiscal policy aims to address challenges such as population decline, economic restructuring, and external pressures by increasing spending and optimizing expenditure [2][3]. Investment in Key Areas - Significant investment is required in critical sectors such as modern industrial systems, technological self-reliance, and green transformation, which necessitates substantial public investment led by fiscal policy [3][4]. - Fiscal funding is essential to fill investment gaps and leverage private capital through risk-sharing mechanisms [3]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The strategy emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation, requiring fiscal measures to enhance consumer confidence and investment willingness [4][5]. - Fiscal policy will focus on optimizing spending and improving social security to stabilize expectations and promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4]. Promoting Social Equity - The plan aims to advance common prosperity through fiscal measures that address income distribution and enhance social welfare systems [5][6]. - Fiscal policy will play a crucial role in reducing disparities and ensuring equitable resource allocation [5]. Addressing Uncertainties - The fiscal policy must maintain necessary spending levels to counteract increasing uncertainties and risks, including economic downturns and external shocks [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal approach is essential to provide a stable foundation for economic and social development during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [6][7]. Focus Areas for Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will maintain a proactive stance, with an expected deficit rate of 3.8% to 4.0%, potentially rising to over 4.2% during significant shocks [8][9]. - Annual issuance of long-term special bonds is projected at around 1.5 trillion yuan, targeting key areas such as technological innovation and social welfare [9][10]. Deepening Fiscal and Tax Reforms - The plan includes reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability and clarify the fiscal relationship between central and local governments [10][11]. - Measures will be taken to improve local tax systems and reduce reliance on land finance, while also addressing local government debt issues [10][11]. Managing Local Government Debt - The strategy outlines a phased approach to resolving existing local government debt, with an annual issuance of special bonds estimated between 4.5 trillion to 5 trillion yuan [11]. - Efforts will focus on categorizing and managing debt risks while enhancing local fiscal capabilities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint release of the "Opinions on Further Ensuring and Improving People's Livelihoods" emphasizes the importance of optimizing fiscal expenditure structure to strengthen basic livelihood financial guarantees [1] Group 1: Increased Investment in Livelihood - This year, fiscal investment in the livelihood sector has increased, with national education expenditure, social security, and employment budget arrangements nearing 4.5 trillion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 6.1% and 5.9% respectively [2] - Employment is prioritized as the largest aspect of livelihood, with central fiscal arrangements for employment support funds amounting to 66.74 billion yuan [2] - The government is also enhancing basic pension security, with the minimum standard for urban and rural residents' basic pensions increased by 20 yuan, benefiting over 300 million elderly individuals [2][3] Group 2: Support for Basic Medical and Educational Services - The per capita fiscal subsidy standard for basic public health services has been raised to 99 yuan per person per year, while the subsidy for urban and rural residents' medical insurance has increased by 30 yuan to 700 yuan per person per year [3] - Central fiscal arrangements for student aid funding amount to 80.945 billion yuan, aimed at improving national scholarship standards and expanding policy coverage [3] Group 3: Optimizing Fiscal Expenditure Structure - The "Opinions" call for local governments to enhance responsibility and optimize fiscal expenditure structure, ensuring that basic livelihood financial guarantees are prioritized [4] - In the first five months, social security and employment expenditures reached 2.0054 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, while education expenditures were 1.7455 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7% [4] Group 4: Role of Transfer Payments - Central fiscal transfer payments have increased to 1.03415 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, aimed at enhancing local financial capacity and ensuring basic livelihood guarantees [6] - The emphasis on transfer payments is crucial for promoting equal access to basic public services across regions, addressing disparities in fiscal capacity [7]