当地时间12月26日，阿根廷国会通过2026年国家预算案，这是自该国总统米莱2023年底就职以来立法机 构批准的首份预算案。 该预算案以46票赞成、25票反对、1票弃权的结果获得通过。预算案预计支出为1018亿美元（折合148万 亿阿根廷比索），并设定了5%的国内生产总值增长目标和10.1%的年通货膨胀率预期。该法案同时规划 了相当于国内生产总值1.2%的基本财政盈余。（央视新闻） ...

智通财经APP获悉，日本首相高市早苗周五表示，该国基本财政收支即将实现28年来的首次盈余，此番 表态显然意在缓解市场对其积极财政支出立场的担忧。 近年来，日本地方政府已连续实现基本财政盈余，据此推算，按照内阁府的统计口径，全国层面的基本 财政盈余目标大概率能够达成。不过，若高市内阁在新财年推出补充预算案，这一局面或将生变。 当前，日本国债收益率持续攀升(部分源于市场担忧这个负债累累国家的支出可能失控)，高市早苗一直 在努力向市场传递其对财政纪律的承诺。上周，基准10年期国债收益率攀升至2.1%，创下27年来新 高。 最新获批的预算凸显出高市早苗愿以财政支出撬动经济增长的政策导向。值得关注的是，尽管财政支出 规模有所扩大，但得益于创纪录的税收收入，政府新增发债需求得到有效抑制，2026财年国债发行规模 较本财年实现缩减。 并且，高市内阁正逐步淡化基本财政盈余在财政评估体系中的核心地位，转而将工作重心放在降低债务 与国内生产总值(GDP)比率上。在通胀周期中，这一目标的实现难度相对更低。 虽然日本政府并未放弃将基本财政盈余作为财政纪律的衡量标准，但日本财务大臣片山皋月指出，其正 在从多年跨度而非单一年度结果来审视 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a shift in fiscal policy, moving away from annual assessments of the primary fiscal surplus target, aiming for a balanced budget over several years instead [1][2] Group 1: Fiscal Policy Changes - Takaichi's comments suggest a commitment to increasing government spending, reminiscent of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" approach, which dominated Japanese politics for nearly a decade [1] - The government aims to achieve nominal GDP growth exceeding Japan's national debt yield while reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio, although specific strategies to achieve these goals were not detailed [1][2] - Takaichi emphasized the need for a long-term perspective in financial management, shifting focus from achieving annual fiscal balance [2] Group 2: Economic Advisory Changes - Recent appointments to Takaichi's economic advisory group reflect a return to the loose monetary and fiscal policy stance associated with "Abenomics," including the inclusion of former Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa [5] - The newly formed Growth Strategy Committee includes inflation advocates and economists known for promoting expansionary policies, indicating a potential shift in economic strategy [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - Takaichi's fiscal policy is described as "responsible" yet expansionary, avoiding direct criticism of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, which may be a response to market concerns [6] - The scale of the economic stimulus package aimed at supporting the economy and households remains unspecified, but if it exceeds expectations, it could raise concerns about Japan's fiscal health and increase long-term bond yields [6] - Takaichi rejected accusations of "fiscal populism," asserting that her policies differ from irresponsible populist measures that rely on cash handouts for popularity [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Brazilian Central Bank's recent decision to raise the benchmark interest rate to 15% has raised concerns among economists about the sustainability of federal debt and the need for effective fiscal reforms to alleviate pressure on public finances [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Impact - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee unanimously approved a 25 basis point increase in the benchmark interest rate, marking a new high and raising market concerns about debt sustainability [1]. - Approximately 47% of federal public debt is linked to floating rate bonds, with a total stock of 3.75 trillion Brazilian Reais. A 1% increase in interest rates will raise debt costs by 37.5 billion Reais within a year [1]. - The recent 0.25 percentage point increase is estimated to lead to an additional expenditure of about 12.1 billion Reais over the next 12 months [2]. Group 2: Debt Projections - The total federal debt could approach the set limit of 8.5 trillion Reais by the end of 2025, up from 7.3 trillion Reais at the end of 2024, due to rising financing needs and increased borrowing costs [2]. - Interest payments on federal domestic currency debt are projected to reach 540.43 billion Reais over the next 12 months at current interest rates [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Economists express that the tightening of monetary policy reflects market concerns over the ongoing expansion of fiscal policy, which exacerbates inflationary pressures [2][3]. - The reliance on debt to pay interest has created a vicious cycle, with warnings that without achieving a basic fiscal surplus, total debt will continue to rise [3]. - The urgency for coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is increasingly evident as Brazil faces the dual challenges of high interest rates and high debt levels [3].