Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

需求端：节前刚需补库 惜购锁价推升镍价 春节临近，镍下游不锈钢、新能源电池企业备货收尾仍有刚需补库，企业为避节后涨价风险锁定现货， 形成 "越涨越买" 特征；贸易商捂货惜售加剧流通紧张，助推镍价上行。 产业链联动：成本 + 双赛道刚需 筑牢价格底部 镍产业链上中下游正向联动，上游成本抬升形成价格底部支撑，下游不锈钢、新能源双赛道刚需托底需 求，春节临近产业链韧性依旧，无明显走弱信号。 上游矿端：外热内冷 全球矿价走高传导成本 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍震荡上涨，沪期镍主力月2603合约开盘报133020元/吨，盘中最高报 135380元/吨，最低价报131800元/吨，收盘报134520元/吨，上涨1920元/吨，涨幅为1.45%，沪镍主力月 2603主力合约成交量417052手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月9日ccmn长江综合1#镍价135800元/吨-144800元/吨，均价报140300元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨3650，长江现货1#镍报135350元/吨-145350元/吨，均价报140350元/吨，较前一日价格 上涨3650，广东现货镍报143850元/吨-144250元/吨，均价报14405 ...