1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with demand mainly relying on battery - end increments and supply being affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies, along with the domestic "anti - involution" narrative, will influence nickel prices. The fundamental situation shows that the oversupply of primary nickel is hard to change, and nickel prices are hovering at the bottom [119]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Aspects - The Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September is almost certain, but the subsequent interest - rate cut path is unclear. The market should focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, dot plot, economic forecasts, and Powell's statements [15]. - The US employment situation has deteriorated significantly, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021, while inflation is rising steadily, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude [16]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI performs well [17]. - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in the first half of 2025, but some macro data have weakened recently. The government's policy orientation focuses on five key areas, and the "anti - involution" policy has been intensified, which may have a phased impact on industrial product prices [20][25]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Philippine nickel ore shipments are at a peak, and port nickel ore inventories are seasonally increasing. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the port inventory increased by 50.1% compared to mid - year [32]. - Indonesian nickel ore premiums are at a high level, and imports from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB approval policy needs attention, and the import volume of Philippine nickel ore by Indonesia is expected to reach 13 million wet tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% [39]. - Indonesian nickel - related policies have a significant impact on the industry. Policies such as export foreign - exchange control, adjustment of metal - mineral pricing methods, and shortening of RKAB quota approval years have increased the operating costs of Chinese - funded enterprises in Indonesia and affected the production and pricing of nickel products [43]. - China's nickel - iron production is generally declining, but prices have rebounded slightly recently. From January to August 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased by 6.42% year - on - year, and prices rebounded from 900 yuan/nickel to around 955 yuan/nickel [52]. - Indonesian nickel - iron production continues to increase, and China's nickel - iron imports are rising, with Indonesia accounting for 97.5% of imports. From January to August 2025, Indonesian nickel - iron production increased by 24.81% year - on - year, and from January to July, China's nickel - iron imports increased by 16.3% year - on - year [60]. - The expansion of Indonesian NPI capacity has slowed down significantly, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances. The number of projects to be commissioned is decreasing, and profit conditions and policies will affect the commissioning progress [61]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product supply continues to increase, with MHP production increasing significantly, ice - nickel production decreasing, and imports of both maintaining an upward trend. From January to August 2025, Indonesian MHP production increased by 58.76% year - on - year, and ice - nickel production decreased by 15.25% year - on - year [64]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product capacity is still being commissioned. In 2025 - 2026, there are many MHP and ice - nickel projects to be commissioned, such as the Green Aiko and MMP projects [66]. - China's refined - nickel production has increased significantly, and global capacity is still in an expansion cycle. In 2025, China's estimated refined - nickel production is 440,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of domestic and Indonesian projects [72]. - In terms of imports and exports, China's refined - nickel imports are mainly from Russia and Indonesia, and exports are mainly to LME delivery warehouses. From January to July 2025, imports increased by 189.27% year - on - year, and exports increased by 78.18% year - on - year [73]. - In terms of valuation, the valuation of pure nickel is anchored to the integrated production cost of electrowinning nickel. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel is relatively low, around 111,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton as of August 2025 [83]. Demand Side - Stainless - steel production is increasing year by year, and steel mills maintain a relatively high production schedule. From January to August 2025, stainless - steel production increased by 5.54% year - on - year, and Indonesian stainless - steel production increased by 0.08% year - on - year [88]. - The "rush - to - export" effect still exists, and stainless - steel demand maintains a certain level of resilience. From January to July 2025, domestic stainless - steel apparent consumption increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a 3% growth rate for the whole year [89]. - The MHP coefficient is strong, and nickel - sulfate production remains stable. From January to July 2025, China's nickel - sulfate production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [95]. - The proportion of ternary batteries in new - energy vehicles is low, and the growth rate of nickel demand from the new - energy sector has slowed down. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries accounted for 18.7% of the total, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% [111]. Inventory - Overseas LME nickel inventory is expected to continue to increase. As of September 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 5.48% compared to mid - year [115]. - China's domestic social inventory has decreased overall this year but increased slightly in the second half of the year. As of September 5, 2025, it increased by 7.1% compared to mid - year [115]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Global primary nickel supply continues to increase, while demand shows mixed trends. Stainless - steel demand maintains some resilience, but there is a risk of weakening downstream orders. The new - energy sector has limited incremental demand for nickel, and the long - term focus is on the demand from solid - state batteries [117]. - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation. In the medium - to - long term, demand growth depends on the battery sector, and supply is affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic uncertainties and fundamental oversupply will keep nickel prices hovering at the bottom. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to mining - end news and macro changes, and the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation of pure nickel [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Although refined nickel imports exceeded expectations last month, part of the inventory became hidden, causing no significant impact on domestic supply. The nickel ore price is relatively firm, with no further downward drivers in the future. Despite the expectation of peak - season stockpiling in September, which may support the demand for primary nickel, the supply side remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Weak demand dominates short - term price adjustments, while the peak - season expectations of "Golden September and Silver October" may provide bottom support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price - related**: As of August 22, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week; the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by 0 and 0.1 to 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang Port were flat at 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan per nickel point to 930 yuan per nickel point, a 0.49% increase [3][27]. - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase; the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.01 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.04% decrease; Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][57]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 411 tons to 2.26 million tons, a 1.86% increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1914 tons to 20.97 million tons, a 0.90% decrease; the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 1019 tons to 4.09 million tons, a 2.43% decrease [40]. - **Trade - related**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 1.55 million tons, a 53.27% increase; the monthly import volume was 3.82 million tons, a 124.36% increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 10.73 million tons, an 80.28% increase; the cumulative import volume was 13.51 million tons, a 180.97% increase [37]. Stainless Steel - **Price - related**: Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2510 opened at 13015 yuan per ton and closed at 12750 yuan per ton, a 2.0% decrease. As of August 25, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 50 to 13075 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease [63]. - **Production - related**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons. Among them, the 300 - series production increased by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series production increased by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series production decreased by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [66]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 109.17 million tons, a 1.19% increase. Among them, the 300 - series inventory increased by 1.42 million tons to 65.87 million tons, a 2.20% increase. As of August 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1406 tons to 10.17 million tons, a 1.36% decrease [68]. - **Cost and Profit - related**: As of August 22, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 52 yuan per ton to 13054 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the production profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to - 3.52% [72]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. The monthly import volume was 1.69 million tons, a 27.63% increase; the monthly export volume was 660.5 tons, a 15.55% decrease [50]. - **Profit - related**: As of August 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag changed by - 0.1, + 1.2, + 0.5, and + 1.1 percentage points to - 1.1%, - 2.4%, 4.9%, and - 1.4% respectively compared to last week [53].

Group 1 - Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund will collaborate with China's Greeenmei, South Korea's Ecopro, and nickel miners Vale and Mindo Nickel to invest in nickel processing projects [1]

Core Insights - Indonesia's nickel sulfate exports reached 16,320 tons in June 2025, with 100% of the exports going to China [1] - Nickel pig iron exports from Indonesia totaled 951,558 tons, with 94.14% (895,837 tons) exported to China [1] - Indonesia exported 15,251 tons of nickel matte, with only 29.87% (4,555 tons) going to China [1] - The export volume of Indonesia's nickel wet processing intermediate products was 160,054 tons, with 100% (160,052 tons) exported to China [1] - Non-alloyed nickel exports from Indonesia amounted to 7,340 tons, with 73.47% (5,393 tons) exported to China [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Monthly Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of nickel is expected to be loose, with weakening support at the mine end. The fundamentals of nickel remain in an overall surplus pattern, and the macro - boosting effect is expected to be limited. Nickel prices may have periodic rebounds but will face pressure above. After the macro - sentiment fades, it will return to the surplus trading logic and continue to test cost support. The main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and a band trading strategy should be maintained [8][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by domestic macro - policy expectations in the first and middle of the month, it followed the sector to be relatively strong, reaching a maximum of around 125,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the macro - optimistic sentiment cooled, the price turned down. The Shanghai Nickel index closed at 119,970 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the end of last month. The total position of the index was 190,000 lots, an increase of 37,484 lots from the end of last month, and the trading volume increased by 1.239 million lots to 4.259 million lots. LME Nickel closed at $14,950/ton, down 1.16% from the end of last month. The total position decreased by 1,820 lots to 237,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 37,000 lots to 150,000 lots [10] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis (1) Nickel Ore Market - In July, nickel ore supply remained stable, and there is an expectation of a gradual loosening in the future. By the end of July, the average price of 1.5% CIF in the Philippines was $58/wet ton, down $2/wet ton from the end of last month. The domestic trade prices of some nickel ores in Indonesia were flat or slightly down. In June 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. From January to June 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [12][13] (2) Electrolytic Nickel/Electrowon Nickel Market - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. In July, the refined nickel output was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. The spot trading in July was cold, with the overall trading volume decreasing by 10% - 20% compared with June [19] (3) Ferronickel Market - From January to June, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.064 million nickel tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production increased by 27% year - on - year to 926,000 nickel tons. In June 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 1.041 million physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 5.5574 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. In July, affected by the stainless - steel off - season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for NPI weakened, and the import volume is expected to decline compared with June [23][27] (4) Nickel Sulfate Market - In July, the nickel sulfate output was about 29,100 metal tons (equivalent to 1.322 million physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. In August, due to the tightening of raw material supply, some nickel - salt production enterprises plan to continue to cut production or carry out maintenance, and the supply of nickel sulfate is expected to shrink [29] 3. Demand - Side of Fundamentals (1) Real Estate Sector - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - start area, and completion area of houses all decreased. The sales of commercial housing were basically stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. The real - estate sector is still in the process of destocking [33] (2) Automobile Sector - The 2025 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, the export of new - energy vehicles was 205,000, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the export was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [36][37] (3) Alloy and Electroplating Industry - The demand for nickel in the alloy and electroplating industry has been relatively stable in recent years. The demand for nickel beans in the new - energy sector has almost reached zero, so the proportion of pure - nickel demand in alloy and electroplating has gradually increased. In June 2025, the total pure - nickel consumption of domestic major nickel - based alloy enterprises was about 1,680 tons, an increase of 180 tons compared with May. The nickel consumption for electroplating in June was about 360 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared with March [40][42] 4. Market Outlook - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the support at the mine end will weaken. In the NPI market, although the nickel - iron price rebounded slightly at the end of the month, the stainless - steel sector is still sluggish. The demand for ternary batteries in the new - energy sector is still flat, and the recovery space of nickel - salt prices is limited. The macro - economic situation has not yet provided substantial support for the demand side. Overall, the nickel price will face pressure above, and the main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [45]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices experienced significant fluctuations in the first half of the year, driven by supply constraints and macroeconomic factors, but ultimately fell due to oversupply conditions [1][2][9] Nickel Price Trends - In Q1, nickel prices rose to a high of 136,000 yuan/ton due to tight supply and favorable macro conditions, but in Q2, prices declined as oversupply became a concern [1] - Specific events influencing prices included Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction in January, trade tensions affecting demand in April, and subsequent policy changes in Indonesia and the Philippines [1][2] Policy Impact - Indonesian and Philippine nickel mining policies significantly affect nickel prices, with both countries accounting for nearly 70% of global nickel production by 2024 [2][3] - Policies can be categorized into "quantity" (e.g., RKAB quotas, export bans) and "price" (e.g., HMA price adjustments, increased resource usage fees), with quantity controls having a more immediate market impact [3] Supply Dynamics - Nickel production capacity is expected to continue growing, particularly in Indonesia, despite a slowdown in new project launches due to declining nickel prices [4][5] - The MHP production capacity is expanding, while the high-nickel battery market is facing challenges, leading to a subdued performance in the nickel sulfate market [4][5] Demand Outlook - Stainless steel, which accounts for over 60% of nickel demand, is facing pressure due to high nickel iron costs and weak downstream consumption [7] - The electric vehicle sector, a key growth area for nickel demand, is experiencing increased competition, leading to a decline in the market share of ternary batteries [8] Market Forecast - The overall nickel market is expected to remain oversupplied, with prices likely to fluctuate between 110,000 and 128,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the new energy industry has made strategic mineral resources, particularly nickel, a new bargaining chip in international competition. Nickel is essential for various applications, especially in the electric vehicle and battery sectors, with demand expected to exceed 60% by 2030 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Nickel is primarily used in stainless steel production, with approximately 65% globally and 85% in China dedicated to this application. The demand for nickel in the battery sector has increased from 3% in 2010 to about 13% in 2023 [2]. - By 2030, the demand for nickel in new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries, and aerospace is projected to account for over 60% of total demand, with the market size for high-nickel ternary battery materials expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [1]. - Indonesia is the largest producer of nickel, holding 42% of global reserves, and is expected to produce 2.32 million tons of nickel by 2025, representing a 6.9% increase year-on-year [13][25]. Group 2: Global Nickel Market Trends - The global nickel market has experienced significant price volatility due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors and the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry [9][11]. - The nickel market is currently undergoing a restructuring phase, with strong companies increasing their resource and downstream investments, while weaker firms are likely to be eliminated [11][12]. - Indonesia's policies, including the ban on nickel ore exports, have transformed it from a raw material supplier to a key player in the nickel processing industry, significantly impacting global supply chains [25][36]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The future of nickel prices is closely tied to supply-demand relationships, with current oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term. However, long-term trends will depend on the balance between production and consumption [12][65]. - Indonesia's nickel production policies are expected to continue influencing global nickel prices, with potential increases in production costs due to regulatory changes [68][70]. - The nickel industry faces challenges such as declining ore grades and increasing environmental standards, which may affect production costs and market dynamics in the future [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Core View The report analyzes the cost support levels of nickel prices under different processes to understand the main drivers of the recent decline in nickel prices and provide a reference for future trends. Currently, the RKEF + converter route for producing pure nickel is in a slight loss, while the oxygen-enriched side-blowing and wet processes still have some profit. In the short term, the cost of the relatively high-cost RKEF + converter route serves as the marginal support line for nickel prices. The decline in nickel prices below this cost line is mainly due to weak downstream demand, low valuations in the middle and downstream sectors, and market expectations of a decline in ore prices [2][6][13]. 2. Summary by Section Fire Process - **Production Routes**: The main routes for producing high-grade nickel matte using the fire process are the RKEF + converter route represented by Tsingshan and the oxygen-enriched side-blowing route represented by Zhongwei, both using high-grade nickel ore as the main raw material [5]. - **Ore Price Increase**: The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen from about $33.4/ton at the beginning of the year to $52.9/ton, a increase of 58.4%, driving up the cost of high-grade nickel matte [5]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of producing refined nickel by the RKEF + converter process is highly correlated with the price of nickel pig iron (NPI), with an additional processing cost of $25,000 - $30,000. Currently, the median cost of producing high-grade nickel matte by the RKEF + converter process in Indonesia is about $13,000/metal ton, corresponding to a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 121,000 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The oxygen-enriched side-blowing process has relatively lower costs, about $2,000/metal ton lower than the RKEF + converter process, with a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 105,000 yuan/ton, still having some profit [6]. Wet Process - **Production Growth**: The HPAL wet process uses low-grade nickel ore as raw material, with obvious cost advantages. Since 2024, the production of MHP in Indonesia has increased rapidly, with the highest monthly production reaching 40,500 tons of nickel metal. It is expected that the annual production of MHP in Indonesia will reach 489,000 tons of nickel metal in 2025 [8]. - **Cost Increase**: Short - term sulfur shortages have led to a slowdown in MHP marginal production. The current cost of MHP in Indonesia has risen to about $11,800/metal ton, equivalent to an integrated MHP cost of about 112,000 yuan/nickel. Considering by - products, the actual cost may be lower [10]. 3. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are fluctuating in a range due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices are also oscillating within a certain range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,710, with changes of 510 compared to T - 1, 1,610 compared to T - 5, - 70 compared to T - 10, - 920 compared to T - 22, and - 6,840 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 115,890, with changes of 17,270 compared to T - 1, - 29,664 compared to T - 5, 37,143 compared to T - 10, - 28,588 compared to T - 22, and - 218,077 compared to T - 66 [1] - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,640, with changes of - 40 compared to T - 1, - 45 compared to T - 5, - 235 compared to T - 10, - 65 compared to T - 22, and - 745 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 76,193, with changes of 645 compared to T - 1, - 48,330 compared to T - 5, - 63,919 compared to T - 10, - 47,658 compared to T - 22, and - 125,868 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,700, with changes of 400 compared to T - 1, 1,525 compared to T - 5, - 500 compared to T - 10, - 1,150 compared to T - 22, and - 6,875 compared to T - 66. The Russian nickel premium is 700, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 250 compared to T - 5, 350 compared to T - 10, 450 compared to T - 22, and 800 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 949, with changes of - 2 compared to T - 1, - 5 compared to T - 5, - 2 compared to T - 10, 1 compared to T - 22, and - 46 compared to T - 66. The price difference between nickel plates and high - nickel iron is 278, with changes of 6 compared to T - 1, 20 compared to T - 5, - 3 compared to T - 10, - 12 compared to T - 22, and - 23 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 50 compared to T - 5, - 100 compared to T - 10, 0 compared to T - 22, and - 250 compared to T - 66. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, 50 compared to T - 22, and 0 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,815, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 100 compared to T - 5, - 200 compared to T - 10, - 300 compared to T - 22, and 415 compared to T - 66. The nickel sulfate premium is 821, with changes of - 88 compared to T - 1, - 436 compared to T - 5, - 90 compared to T - 10, - 47 compared to T - 22, and 1,928 compared to T - 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The plant's production almost stopped in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - In February, Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in 5 years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance and halt production from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the output of 300 - series products. The mill cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]