Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Monthly Report [1] - Date: August 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of nickel is expected to be loose, with weakening support at the mine end. The fundamentals of nickel remain in an overall surplus pattern, and the macro - boosting effect is expected to be limited. Nickel prices may have periodic rebounds but will face pressure above. After the macro - sentiment fades, it will return to the surplus trading logic and continue to test cost support. The main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and a band trading strategy should be maintained [8][45] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Shanghai Nickel continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Affected by domestic macro - policy expectations in the first and middle of the month, it followed the sector to be relatively strong, reaching a maximum of around 125,000 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, as the macro - optimistic sentiment cooled, the price turned down. The Shanghai Nickel index closed at 119,970 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the end of last month. The total position of the index was 190,000 lots, an increase of 37,484 lots from the end of last month, and the trading volume increased by 1.239 million lots to 4.259 million lots. LME Nickel closed at $14,950/ton, down 1.16% from the end of last month. The total position decreased by 1,820 lots to 237,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 37,000 lots to 150,000 lots [10] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis (1) Nickel Ore Market - In July, nickel ore supply remained stable, and there is an expectation of a gradual loosening in the future. By the end of July, the average price of 1.5% CIF in the Philippines was $58/wet ton, down $2/wet ton from the end of last month. The domestic trade prices of some nickel ores in Indonesia were flat or slightly down. In June 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. From January to June 2025, the total nickel ore import volume was 14.7812 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.36% [12][13] (2) Electrolytic Nickel/Electrowon Nickel Market - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing. In July, the refined nickel output was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69%. The operating rate of domestic refined nickel enterprises was 61%. The spot trading in July was cold, with the overall trading volume decreasing by 10% - 20% compared with June [19] (3) Ferronickel Market - From January to June, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.064 million nickel tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21%. Indonesia's nickel - iron production increased by 27% year - on - year to 926,000 nickel tons. In June 2025, China's nickel - iron import volume was 1.041 million physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50%. From January to June, the cumulative import volume was about 5.5574 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.4%. In July, affected by the stainless - steel off - season and overseas tariff policies, the demand for NPI weakened, and the import volume is expected to decline compared with June [23][27] (4) Nickel Sulfate Market - In July, the nickel sulfate output was about 29,100 metal tons (equivalent to 1.322 million physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 17.30% and a year - on - year increase of 4.77%. In August, due to the tightening of raw material supply, some nickel - salt production enterprises plan to continue to cut production or carry out maintenance, and the supply of nickel sulfate is expected to shrink [29] 3. Demand - Side of Fundamentals (1) Real Estate Sector - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The construction area, new - start area, and completion area of houses all decreased. The sales of commercial housing were basically stable, and the inventory continued to decrease. The real - estate sector is still in the process of destocking [33] (2) Automobile Sector - The 2025 automobile trade - in policy will benefit more consumers. In June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased rapidly year - on - year. From January to June 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3% respectively. In June, the export of new - energy vehicles was 205,000, a month - on - month decrease of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4 times. From January to June, the export was 1.06 million, a year - on - year increase of 75.2% [36][37] (3) Alloy and Electroplating Industry - The demand for nickel in the alloy and electroplating industry has been relatively stable in recent years. The demand for nickel beans in the new - energy sector has almost reached zero, so the proportion of pure - nickel demand in alloy and electroplating has gradually increased. In June 2025, the total pure - nickel consumption of domestic major nickel - based alloy enterprises was about 1,680 tons, an increase of 180 tons compared with May. The nickel consumption for electroplating in June was about 360 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared with March [40][42] 4. Market Outlook - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is expected to be loose, and the support at the mine end will weaken. In the NPI market, although the nickel - iron price rebounded slightly at the end of the month, the stainless - steel sector is still sluggish. The demand for ternary batteries in the new - energy sector is still flat, and the recovery space of nickel - salt prices is limited. The macro - economic situation has not yet provided substantial support for the demand side. Overall, the nickel price will face pressure above, and the main operating range of the August index can be referred to as 119,000 - 125,000 yuan [45]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the new energy industry has made strategic mineral resources, particularly nickel, a new bargaining chip in international competition. Nickel is essential for various applications, especially in the electric vehicle and battery sectors, with demand expected to exceed 60% by 2030 [1][2][3]. Group 1: Nickel Demand and Supply Dynamics - Nickel is primarily used in stainless steel production, with approximately 65% globally and 85% in China dedicated to this application. The demand for nickel in the battery sector has increased from 3% in 2010 to about 13% in 2023 [2]. - By 2030, the demand for nickel in new energy vehicles, energy storage batteries, and aerospace is projected to account for over 60% of total demand, with the market size for high-nickel ternary battery materials expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [1]. - Indonesia is the largest producer of nickel, holding 42% of global reserves, and is expected to produce 2.32 million tons of nickel by 2025, representing a 6.9% increase year-on-year [13][25]. Group 2: Global Nickel Market Trends - The global nickel market has experienced significant price volatility due to changes in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors and the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry [9][11]. - The nickel market is currently undergoing a restructuring phase, with strong companies increasing their resource and downstream investments, while weaker firms are likely to be eliminated [11][12]. - Indonesia's policies, including the ban on nickel ore exports, have transformed it from a raw material supplier to a key player in the nickel processing industry, significantly impacting global supply chains [25][36]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Challenges - The future of nickel prices is closely tied to supply-demand relationships, with current oversupply issues expected to persist in the short term. However, long-term trends will depend on the balance between production and consumption [12][65]. - Indonesia's nickel production policies are expected to continue influencing global nickel prices, with potential increases in production costs due to regulatory changes [68][70]. - The nickel industry faces challenges such as declining ore grades and increasing environmental standards, which may affect production costs and market dynamics in the future [69][70].

Report Summary 1. Core View The report analyzes the cost support levels of nickel prices under different processes to understand the main drivers of the recent decline in nickel prices and provide a reference for future trends. Currently, the RKEF + converter route for producing pure nickel is in a slight loss, while the oxygen-enriched side-blowing and wet processes still have some profit. In the short term, the cost of the relatively high-cost RKEF + converter route serves as the marginal support line for nickel prices. The decline in nickel prices below this cost line is mainly due to weak downstream demand, low valuations in the middle and downstream sectors, and market expectations of a decline in ore prices [2][6][13]. 2. Summary by Section Fire Process - **Production Routes**: The main routes for producing high-grade nickel matte using the fire process are the RKEF + converter route represented by Tsingshan and the oxygen-enriched side-blowing route represented by Zhongwei, both using high-grade nickel ore as the main raw material [5]. - **Ore Price Increase**: The price of 1.6% grade nickel ore in Indonesia has risen from about $33.4/ton at the beginning of the year to $52.9/ton, a increase of 58.4%, driving up the cost of high-grade nickel matte [5]. - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of producing refined nickel by the RKEF + converter process is highly correlated with the price of nickel pig iron (NPI), with an additional processing cost of $25,000 - $30,000. Currently, the median cost of producing high-grade nickel matte by the RKEF + converter process in Indonesia is about $13,000/metal ton, corresponding to a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 121,000 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The oxygen-enriched side-blowing process has relatively lower costs, about $2,000/metal ton lower than the RKEF + converter process, with a domestic integrated high-grade nickel matte production cost of about 105,000 yuan/ton, still having some profit [6]. Wet Process - **Production Growth**: The HPAL wet process uses low-grade nickel ore as raw material, with obvious cost advantages. Since 2024, the production of MHP in Indonesia has increased rapidly, with the highest monthly production reaching 40,500 tons of nickel metal. It is expected that the annual production of MHP in Indonesia will reach 489,000 tons of nickel metal in 2025 [8]. - **Cost Increase**: Short - term sulfur shortages have led to a slowdown in MHP marginal production. The current cost of MHP in Indonesia has risen to about $11,800/metal ton, equivalent to an integrated MHP cost of about 112,000 yuan/nickel. Considering by - products, the actual cost may be lower [10]. 3. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are fluctuating in a range due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices are also oscillating within a certain range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 122,710, with changes of 510 compared to T - 1, 1,610 compared to T - 5, - 70 compared to T - 10, - 920 compared to T - 22, and - 6,840 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 115,890, with changes of 17,270 compared to T - 1, - 29,664 compared to T - 5, 37,143 compared to T - 10, - 28,588 compared to T - 22, and - 218,077 compared to T - 66 [1] - The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,640, with changes of - 40 compared to T - 1, - 45 compared to T - 5, - 235 compared to T - 10, - 65 compared to T - 22, and - 745 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 76,193, with changes of 645 compared to T - 1, - 48,330 compared to T - 5, - 63,919 compared to T - 10, - 47,658 compared to T - 22, and - 125,868 compared to T - 66 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data** - The price of 1 imported nickel is 122,700, with changes of 400 compared to T - 1, 1,525 compared to T - 5, - 500 compared to T - 10, - 1,150 compared to T - 22, and - 6,875 compared to T - 66. The Russian nickel premium is 700, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 250 compared to T - 5, 350 compared to T - 10, 450 compared to T - 22, and 800 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 949, with changes of - 2 compared to T - 1, - 5 compared to T - 5, - 2 compared to T - 10, 1 compared to T - 22, and - 46 compared to T - 66. The price difference between nickel plates and high - nickel iron is 278, with changes of 6 compared to T - 1, 20 compared to T - 5, - 3 compared to T - 10, - 12 compared to T - 22, and - 23 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 50 compared to T - 5, - 100 compared to T - 10, 0 compared to T - 22, and - 250 compared to T - 66. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu is 13,750, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, 0 compared to T - 5, 0 compared to T - 10, 50 compared to T - 22, and 0 compared to T - 66 [1] - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,815, with changes of 0 compared to T - 1, - 100 compared to T - 5, - 200 compared to T - 10, - 300 compared to T - 22, and 415 compared to T - 66. The nickel sulfate premium is 821, with changes of - 88 compared to T - 1, - 436 compared to T - 5, - 90 compared to T - 10, - 47 compared to T - 22, and 1,928 compared to T - 66 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron, with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The plant's production almost stopped in March due to a fatal landslide in the tailings area. Currently, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - In February, Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in 5 years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance and halt production from June to July, with an expected impact of 110,000 - 130,000 tons, mainly affecting the output of 300 - series products. The mill cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

2025 年 5 月 30 日 镍：短线成本支撑，弱预期限制弹性 不锈钢：负反馈导致减产边际增加，深跌具有难度 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 120,480 | 530 | -2,920 | -2,920 | -3,700 | -3,650 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,690 | 10 | -190 | -190 | -30 | -475 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 181,192 | 22,348 | 79,974 | 79,974 | 45,311 | 67,964 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 139,550 | -35,613 | 21,935 | 21,935 | -5,759 | -23,123 | | | | 1#进 ...

Core Insights - The current spot price of electrolytic nickel in Shanghai is reported at 123,300.00 CNY/ton, with a premium of 1,130.00 CNY/ton over the futures main price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 122,170.00 CNY/ton for the main contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.55% [2] - Nickel inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 130 tons to 22,120 tons, with a cumulative reduction of 1,022 tons (4.42%) over the past week and 2,680 tons (10.81%) over the past month [3] Price Overview - The market prices for 1 nickel (Ni9990) vary, with quotes of 124,750 CNY/ton in Guangzhou, 125,000 CNY/ton in Shanghai from Shanghai Jincang Material Company, and 123,350 CNY/ton from Shanghai Huato Nonferrous Metals Market [2] - The ex-factory price for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is reported at 124,300 CNY/ton in Jinchang, Gansu Province [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic nickel pig iron supply has significantly decreased year-on-year, while Indonesian supply remains high [4] - April saw an increase in electrolytic nickel production, and stainless steel production remained at high levels [4] - The demand outlook may be affected by ongoing trade disputes, but short-term improvements in macroeconomic conditions are anticipated to support prices [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental logic of Shanghai nickel may narrow the nickel price oscillation range, and market news disturbs the market sentiment. The nickel price is expected to continue to oscillate within a range, with news affecting sentiment but not recommending excessive chasing of highs. If the contradiction at the Indonesian ore end intensifies, the overall oscillation center may rise slightly, but the upside potential may be limited by the economics of conversion [1]. - Stainless steel has weak supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and has a chance of a slight recovery in the medium - term. The bottom space is relatively clear, and if the ore shortage persists and the steel mill production cut is realized, the market may recover slightly, but the recovery space is limited [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel**: Indonesian high - grade nickel ore is in short supply, with the premium rising by 1 - 2 US dollars to 26 - 27 US dollars per wet ton, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 16 US dollars. The short - term inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the inventory decreases marginally. The smelting end is affected by stainless steel negative feedback and production cuts, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. The conversion to high - grade nickel matte may limit the upside of refined nickel valuation [1]. - **Stainless steel**: The supply and demand are weak. The seasonal inventory reduction is slow, and the inventory accumulates marginally in the off - season. Steel mills may cut production, and the cash cost is about 12,900 yuan per ton. The ore contradiction may limit the bottom space of nickel iron [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 15 tons to 43,691 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,648 tons to 197,670 tons [3]. - The nickel iron inventory at the end of April was 28,395.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 26% and 17% respectively [4]. - Stainless steel social inventory was 1,112,968 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%. Cold - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 3.3% week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless steel inventory increased by 2.02% week - on - week [4]. - China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 110,900 wet tons to 6.9652 million wet tons [6]. Market News - Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel ore, nickel iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte, which will be implemented on April 26, 2025 [7]. - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US [7]. - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel iron RKEF successfully produced nickel iron and entered the trial production stage [7]. - A nickel smelter in Indonesia has resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - There are rumors about the Philippines' nickel ore export ban, but the authenticity and start time need to be verified [1][8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The closing price of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 123,450 yuan, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 12,720 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel's main contract was 111,203 lots, and that of stainless steel's main contract was 64,097 lots [10]. - Other data such as import nickel prices, nickel iron prices, and stainless steel product prices are also provided in the table [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For nickel, the cost of pyrometallurgy is supported by nickel ore, and the accumulation of refined nickel inventory has not materialized [1] - For stainless steel, the short - term price is dominated by cost logic, while the medium - term supply and demand still face pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai nickel futures was 131,600, up 1,570 compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel futures was 13,535, up 95 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 249,977, an increase of 52,503 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel futures was 206,853, an increase of 39,941 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 131,200, up 1,250 compared to T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price in Jiangsu) was 1,029, up 3 compared to T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 13,625, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The production line of Indonesia's GNI nickel - iron project has gradually resumed after production cuts in January - February 2025, with the capacity utilization rate increasing from 30% to 50% in March, and the output is expected to increase by about 0.2 million metal tons per month in March. It plans to achieve normal production by the end of April [2] - The Indonesian government has proposed to adjust non - tax national revenues, raising the resource tax rates of nickel ore, nickel - iron, nickel pig iron, and nickel matte from 10%, 2%, 5%, and 2% to the floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively [3] - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the United States in response to US tariff threats [4] - The Ramu nickel - cobalt project's Basamuk HPAL plant has successfully resumed full - load production, and its MHP guidance output in 2025 is about 32,000 nickel metal tons [5] - Indonesia's ESDM signaled that new rules related to increasing mineral and coal royalties will be issued before Eid al - Fitr or March 31, 2025 [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral outlook [5]