Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices are experiencing an upward trend driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment and strong fundamental support, with the main contract reaching 134,520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.45% [2][11] Supply Side - Global nickel supply is significantly contracting due to a 34% reduction in Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2026 compared to 2025, leading to a decrease of nearly 400,000 tons in global nickel production [3] - Seasonal disruptions in mining operations in the Philippines and Indonesia, along with cost increases causing small miners to reduce or halt production, are contributing to a widening supply gap [3] Demand Side - As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stainless steel and new energy battery companies are actively replenishing inventory, creating a strong demand for nickel [4] - Traders are holding back inventory in anticipation of price increases, further tightening market liquidity and pushing nickel prices higher [4] Industry Chain Interaction - The nickel industry chain is showing strong interconnectivity, with rising upstream costs providing price support and robust demand from both stainless steel and new energy sectors maintaining a solid foundation for prices [5] - There are no significant signs of weakness in the industry chain as the Spring Festival approaches [5] Upstream Mining - The nickel ore market is characterized by a "hot outside, cold inside" dynamic, with Philippine ore prices rising due to global demand, while domestic prices are under pressure [6] - Domestic mining costs are facing a backwardation situation, with strong pricing intentions from midstream smelting operations [6] Midstream Smelting - Rising ore prices are increasing production costs for nickel iron and refined nickel, leading companies to maintain prices to protect profit margins [7] - Domestic refined nickel production growth is slowing, and some capacity is being shifted, resulting in no increase in midstream supply, which further supports price stability [7] Downstream Consumption - The core demand from both stainless steel and new energy sectors remains strong, with an increase in nickel consumption in stainless steel production and sustained demand for high-nickel batteries in new energy vehicles [8] - The consumption of nickel in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to provide long-term upward momentum for nickel prices [8] Market Activity - The midday trading of nickel showed increased activity, with strong demand for immediate purchases and sellers holding back inventory, leading to a high premium for spot prices [10] - Overall trading volume remained stable, with prices rising and no signs of a pullback in the near term [10] Short-term Outlook - Nickel prices are expected to continue a strong upward trend, with the main contract likely trading between 133,000 and 136,000 yuan/ton in the coming days [10] - The weak dollar and recovering risk appetite in the U.S. stock market are supporting macroeconomic sentiment, while supply constraints from Indonesia and pre-holiday demand are solidifying price support [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel price mainly follows the guidance of macro - sentiment this week. The precious metals and non - ferrous sectors led the market to a significant correction. Attention should be paid to capital trends and market stabilization signals. The supply side is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas of the Philippines and Indonesia, with nickel ore shipments continuously blocked and strong support for ore prices. However, the fundamentals of nickel remain weak, the inventory accumulation trend has not turned, and the short - term market may be difficult to show a trending market [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel Market Overview - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai nickel main contract opened at 149,880 yuan/ton and closed at 140,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 5.41%. The spot price of electrolytic nickel decreased by 13,600 yuan/ton to 140,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.84%. The LME nickel price decreased by 1,545 dollars/ton to 17,045 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.31% [9][15][20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total supply of nickel in China in January 2026 was 21.4 million tons, and the total demand was 19.2 million tons, with a supply - demand balance of 2.2 million tons. The production of electrolytic nickel in China in January 2026 increased by 0.63 million tons to 3.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 25.54%. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 4,349 tons to 70,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.56% [4][44][49]. 3.2 Nickel Ore - **Price**: As of February 2, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were 30, 59.5, and 78.5 dollars/wet ton respectively, with week - on - week changes of +0, +0.5, and +0. The ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% remained flat at 21.5 and 55 dollars/wet ton respectively as of January 30 [31]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the nickel ore port inventory decreased by 300,000 tons to 7.06 million wet tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%. In December 2025, the national nickel ore import volume was 1.9928 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.32% and a year - on - year increase of 31.13% [34]. 3.3 Intermediate Products - **Price**: As of February 2, the FOB price of MHP increased by 77 dollars/ton to 16,104 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%, and the FOB price of high - grade nickel matte increased by 264 dollars/ton to 16,632 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% [40]. - **Production and Import**: In January 2026, the production of Indonesian MHP remained flat at 39,000 tons of nickel, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 800 tons to 33,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.31%. In December 2025, the monthly import volume of MHP was 163,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 8.51% and a year - on - year increase of 24.36%, and the monthly import volume of high - grade nickel matte was 39,900 tons of metal, a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 91.88% [40]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Production**: In January 2026, the monthly production of Chinese electrolytic nickel increased by 0.63 million tons to 3.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 25.54% [44]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 4,057 tons to 46,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.54%, and the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 24 tons to 285,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01%. The pure nickel social inventory increased by 4,349 tons to 70,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.56% [49]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Production**: In December 2025, the monthly production of Chinese nickel sulfate decreased by 1,640 tons to 29,200 tons of nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.47% [3]. - **Cost and Profit**: Affected by market sentiment and weak fundamentals, the nickel price dropped rapidly, and the immediate production cost of nickel sulfate decreased. As of February 2, the profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 4.9, 7.8, 4.2, and 6.4 percentage points respectively to 2.6%, 0.8%, 6.3%, and 0.2% [65]. 3.6 Ferronickel - **Production**: In January 2026, the national ferronickel production (in metal quantity) increased by 200 tons to 23,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.47%, and the Indonesian ferronickel production decreased by 9,200 tons to 132,100 tons of nickel, a month - on - month decrease of 6.51% [69]. - **Price**: As of February 2, the average price of 8 - 12% high - grade ferronickel decreased by 10 yuan/nickel point to 1,040 yuan/nickel point, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% [27]. 3.7 Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract opened at 14,715 yuan/ton and closed at 14,140 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.97%. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge in Wuxi decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton as of February 2 [74]. - **Production and Inventory**: In January 2026, the Chinese stainless steel crude steel production increased by 165,500 tons to 3.426 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.08% and a year - on - year increase of 24.83%. It is expected that the production in February 2026 will be 2.651 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.49%. As of January 30, the stainless steel social inventory increased by 31,100 tons to 952,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.37% [77][80]. - **Cost**: As of February 3, the production cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 238 yuan/ton to 13,771 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.70% [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides support at the bottom [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Nickel Futures Data**: The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 137,680, with changes of 2,850 compared to T - 1, - 6,690 compared to T - 5, - 5,380 compared to T - 10, 3,580 compared to T - 22, and 17,980 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 481,566, with a change of - 181,798 compared to T - 1 [3] - **Stainless - steel Futures Data**: The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 13,825, with changes of 240 compared to T - 1, - 640 compared to T - 5, - 895 compared to T - 10, 750 compared to T - 22, and 1,280 compared to T - 66. The trading volume is 365,129, with a change of - 11,884 compared to T - 1 [3] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 136,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,030, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,100, and the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,250, etc. [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [4] - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [4] - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [6] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [6] - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [6] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port warehousing and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [6] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [7] - Indonesia's ESDM has started approving the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [7] - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mining business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound in nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [7] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8]

Summary of Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The nickel industry is significantly influenced by Indonesia's export ban and quota policies, which were implemented in 2019 to restrict raw material exports and promote domestic processing [1][4] - Indonesia holds approximately 48% of the world's nickel reserves, with a total global reserve of about 130 million metric tons [2] - The nickel market is expected to experience an oversupply in 2026, leading to price pressure, despite some short-term price support from changes in Indonesia's tax rates [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The nickel market is projected to face a supply-demand imbalance in 2027 due to Indonesia's plans to tighten mining quotas, potentially leading to a supply shortage and price increases [1][2][3] - The demand for nickel is cyclical, with traditional peaks during the fourth quarter driven by stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) tax policy adjustments [1][6] - **Impact of Indonesian Policies**: - Indonesia's mining policies have reshaped the global supply chain, pushing countries like China to establish smelting operations in Indonesia [4] - Recent announcements from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) regarding reduced mining quotas have significantly affected market sentiment, causing price fluctuations [8][12] - **Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations**: - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in nickel price movements, with recent government statements causing sharp price declines despite unchanged fundamentals [12][29] - The government aims to maintain nickel prices at moderate levels to prevent excessive production from other countries while ensuring tax revenue [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production and Consumption**: - The nickel industry chain consists of four main segments: mining, intermediate products, refined products, and downstream applications [5][7] - The largest consumption of nickel is in stainless steel production, accounting for about two-thirds of total demand, while the electric vehicle sector represents around 14% [17][18] - **Future Projections**: - By 2027, China's refined nickel production capacity is expected to reach 470,000 tons, with ongoing enthusiasm for production despite limited domestic demand [19] - The global nickel market is anticipated to face a surplus of approximately 420,000 tons in 2025 and 430,000 tons in 2026, although actual surplus may be lower due to significant stockpiling actions in China [16] - **Challenges in the Nickel Market**: - The nickel market faces challenges from high raw material prices and historical inventory levels in stainless steel, which may lead to production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances [25][29] - **Regulatory Changes**: - Indonesia has implemented new policies allowing mining companies to carry over unused quotas from previous years, which may alleviate some supply concerns [13][10] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the nickel industry, highlighting the critical influence of Indonesian policies, market dynamics, and future projections.

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in nickel prices, characterized by a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, is driven by a combination of policy expectations and fundamental market realities [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices surged due to Indonesia's substantial reduction in nickel ore quotas, decreasing from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a 34% drop, alongside Vale Indonesia's mining operation suspensions [1]. - In a span of three weeks, nickel prices increased by over 36,000 yuan, exceeding 30% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventory rose by 20,000 tons, reaching a peak of 275,600 tons, indicating a supply surplus [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for nickel in the new energy battery sector grew less than expected, at under 8%, while stainless steel procurement remained sluggish due to slow real estate recovery [1]. - High inventory levels are projected to persist, with ING estimating a global nickel surplus of 261,000 tons by 2026, contrasting sharply with the optimistic supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Profitability - Upstream nickel mining and smelting companies benefited from the price surge, with companies like Huayou Cobalt seeing significant profit increases from rising nickel prices [2][3]. - Midstream processing companies face challenges in cost transmission, while downstream stainless steel and battery manufacturers are caught in a dilemma regarding pricing strategies, which could further suppress nickel demand [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The nickel market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with 140,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [3]. - The future price trajectory hinges on the enforcement of Indonesia's production quota policy, with potential supply gaps of 10 to 20 million tons if strictly adhered to [3]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from policy expectations to fundamental realities, monitoring the execution of Indonesia's quota policy and global nickel inventory trends [4].

Group 1: Nickel Price and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have surged, with three-month nickel futures increasing by 10% to reach $18,735 per ton, the highest level since June 2024 [1] - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) projects global nickel demand to reach 3.82 million tons and production to hit 4.09 million tons by 2026, with a potential supply-demand reversal due to a forecasted reduction of 200,000 to 300,000 tons in Indonesian nickel production [1] - The price increase is primarily driven by Indonesia's plans to cut nickel ore quotas and macroeconomic sentiment, as stated by Jinrui Futures nickel researcher Dai Zizhao [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Changes - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, plans to significantly reduce its nickel production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons by 2026, a cut of 34%, to control oversupply and support prices [2] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas is expected to have a minimal economic impact on Indonesia, and higher nickel prices could enhance tax revenues and increase the value of local resources, making the implementation of these policies likely [2] Group 3: Companies in the Nickel Industry - Liqin Resources (02245) has submitted application materials for a proposed A-share issuance to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, covering a complete industrial chain including nickel ore trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing [3] - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has been strategically investing in upstream nickel, phosphorus, and lithium resources globally since 2022, with expectations to self-supply 30,000 tons of metal nickel by 2026, potentially increasing profits by 20 to 30 million yuan [3] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) owns several nickel-copper mines and has additional mineral resources, indicating a diversified portfolio in the nickel sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the 2026 RKAB quota at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota and Market Dynamics - The 2026 RKAB quota is expected to create a supply gap of 57 million tons, as the estimated demand for nickel ore is at least 327 million wet tons [1] - Historical data shows that the Indonesian government has a tendency to approve higher RKAB quotas than initially planned, leading to a cautious outlook on the actual implementation of the quota reduction [2] - The anticipated RKAB quota for 2026 is expected to fall between 280 million to 320 million tons, influenced by short-term supply shortage expectations [2] Group 2: Nickel Pricing and Taxation Policies - A revised nickel reference price (HPM) calculation formula is set to be released in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The introduction of a royalty on cobalt could potentially increase government revenue by approximately $600 million annually, even with a low cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt royalties is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - Recent policy expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions and cobalt taxation have led to a rapid rebound in nickel futures prices, with a notable V-shaped recovery observed [5] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a production increase of over 45%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [6] - The short-term price movements of nickel are expected to be driven by market sentiment, with limited upward potential unless more policies are implemented [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - **Demand**: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - **Ferronickel**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless - steel Demand**: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].

Summary of Nickel Market Analysis and Outlook Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the nickel industry, particularly the developments in Indonesia's nickel production and regulatory environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Indonesia plans to limit nickel production to 150 million tons by 2030, a reduction of approximately 34% compared to 2025, indicating a strong commitment to controlling nickel supply, which may lead to price increases [1] - The Indonesian government is tightening regulations on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), changing the RKA B approval process from every three years to annually, which increases operational costs for companies and supports nickel prices [1][3] - A planned acquisition of Delong Nickel Industry for 20 billion RMB aims to enhance upstream mining regulation and improve the value of the downstream industry chain, consolidating resources to boost fiscal revenue [1][3] - The establishment of the Dandanpala platform focuses on resource integration in mining processing, energy security, renewable resources, and deep processing of agricultural and fishery products, aimed at enhancing national fiscal capacity [1][4][5] - High-grade nickel ore consumption is accelerating, with average grades expected to decline from 1.66% in 2024 to 1.57% in 2025, a drop of about 7%, putting pressure on small mining companies and prompting the government to advocate for sustainable development [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The nickel market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2026 due to tightening supply and stricter policies, with the interaction between companies and the Indonesian government being crucial [1][7] - There is a potential for substantial price increases in the future, making nickel a key focus for investors [7] Investment Opportunities - Several domestic companies are actively investing in nickel-related fields, and investors are encouraged to engage with relevant teams for more detailed information to seize investment opportunities [1][8][9]

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released by the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) indicates an upward trend in the prices of nickel downstream products, while nickel ore prices remain stable compared to previous releases [3][6]. Nickel Ore Prices - Nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% (CIF) is priced at $22.5 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous index [4]. - Nickel ore with a grade of 1.6% (CIF) has a price range of $50.8 to $52.8 per metric ton, with an average price of $51.8 per metric ton, down by $0.1 from the previous average of $51.9 per metric ton [5]. Downstream Product Prices - Nickel pig iron (FOB) price has increased to $110.47 per metric ton, up by $0.15 from the previous price of $110.32 per metric ton [5]. - High-grade nickel matte (FOB) price has risen significantly to $13,017 per metric ton, an increase of $48 from the previous price of $12,969 per metric ton [6]. - MHP (FOB) price has also increased to $12,736 per metric ton, up by $42 from the previous price of $12,694 per metric ton [6]. Market Analysis - The price increases in nickel pig iron, high-grade nickel matte, and MHP reflect strong demand in the nickel downstream supply chain, primarily driven by the electric vehicle battery and stainless steel industries [6]. - The stability in nickel ore prices suggests that the domestic supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remains sufficient [6]. - The changes in the Indonesian Nickel Price Index serve as an important reference for industry stakeholders, including mining companies, smelters, and investors, in formulating production and sales strategies for the end of 2025 [6].