需求端：节前刚需补库 惜购锁价推升镍价 春节临近，镍下游不锈钢、新能源电池企业备货收尾仍有刚需补库，企业为避节后涨价风险锁定现货， 形成 "越涨越买" 特征；贸易商捂货惜售加剧流通紧张，助推镍价上行。 产业链联动：成本 + 双赛道刚需 筑牢价格底部 镍产业链上中下游正向联动，上游成本抬升形成价格底部支撑，下游不锈钢、新能源双赛道刚需托底需 求，春节临近产业链韧性依旧，无明显走弱信号。 上游矿端：外热内冷 全球矿价走高传导成本 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍震荡上涨，沪期镍主力月2603合约开盘报133020元/吨，盘中最高报 135380元/吨，最低价报131800元/吨，收盘报134520元/吨，上涨1920元/吨，涨幅为1.45%，沪镍主力月 2603主力合约成交量417052手。 据长江有色属网统计：2月9日ccmn长江综合1#镍价135800元/吨-144800元/吨，均价报140300元/吨，较 前一日价格上涨3650，长江现货1#镍报135350元/吨-145350元/吨，均价报140350元/吨，较前一日价格 上涨3650，广东现货镍报143850元/吨-144250元/吨，均价报14405 ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 4 拐拐拐拐 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 周内镍价主要跟随宏观情绪指引，贵金属及有色板块带领盘面大幅回调，关注资金动向及盘面企稳信号。供应端，菲律宾及印尼主产区正值雨季 | | | | ，镍矿发运持续受阻，矿价支撑较强。此外，镍矿配额发放节奏仍对镍价形成阶段性扰动，然而镍自身基本面维持弱势，累库趋势未出现拐点， 当前盘面多空博弈加剧，短期或难走出趋势性行情。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至2月2日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+0、+0.5、+0 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）印度尼西亚政府已通过OSS平台暂停发放新的冶炼许可证。这项限制措施特别针对计划生产Nickel matte、混合氢氧化物沉淀物（"MHP"）、铁镍（"FeNi"）和镍生铁（"NPI"）的项目——这些产品统称为 "受限制产品"。 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | ...

Summary of Nickel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The nickel industry is significantly influenced by Indonesia's export ban and quota policies, which were implemented in 2019 to restrict raw material exports and promote domestic processing [1][4] - Indonesia holds approximately 48% of the world's nickel reserves, with a total global reserve of about 130 million metric tons [2] - The nickel market is expected to experience an oversupply in 2026, leading to price pressure, despite some short-term price support from changes in Indonesia's tax rates [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The nickel market is projected to face a supply-demand imbalance in 2027 due to Indonesia's plans to tighten mining quotas, potentially leading to a supply shortage and price increases [1][2][3] - The demand for nickel is cyclical, with traditional peaks during the fourth quarter driven by stainless steel and electric vehicle (EV) tax policy adjustments [1][6] - **Impact of Indonesian Policies**: - Indonesia's mining policies have reshaped the global supply chain, pushing countries like China to establish smelting operations in Indonesia [4] - Recent announcements from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association (APNI) regarding reduced mining quotas have significantly affected market sentiment, causing price fluctuations [8][12] - **Market Sentiment and Price Fluctuations**: - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in nickel price movements, with recent government statements causing sharp price declines despite unchanged fundamentals [12][29] - The government aims to maintain nickel prices at moderate levels to prevent excessive production from other countries while ensuring tax revenue [14] Additional Important Insights - **Production and Consumption**: - The nickel industry chain consists of four main segments: mining, intermediate products, refined products, and downstream applications [5][7] - The largest consumption of nickel is in stainless steel production, accounting for about two-thirds of total demand, while the electric vehicle sector represents around 14% [17][18] - **Future Projections**: - By 2027, China's refined nickel production capacity is expected to reach 470,000 tons, with ongoing enthusiasm for production despite limited domestic demand [19] - The global nickel market is anticipated to face a surplus of approximately 420,000 tons in 2025 and 430,000 tons in 2026, although actual surplus may be lower due to significant stockpiling actions in China [16] - **Challenges in the Nickel Market**: - The nickel market faces challenges from high raw material prices and historical inventory levels in stainless steel, which may lead to production cuts in response to supply-demand imbalances [25][29] - **Regulatory Changes**: - Indonesia has implemented new policies allowing mining companies to carry over unused quotas from previous years, which may alleviate some supply concerns [13][10] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the nickel industry, highlighting the critical influence of Indonesian policies, market dynamics, and future projections.

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in nickel prices, characterized by a sharp rise followed by a significant decline, is driven by a combination of policy expectations and fundamental market realities [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices surged due to Indonesia's substantial reduction in nickel ore quotas, decreasing from 379 million tons to 250 million tons, a 34% drop, alongside Vale Indonesia's mining operation suspensions [1]. - In a span of three weeks, nickel prices increased by over 36,000 yuan, exceeding 30% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel inventory rose by 20,000 tons, reaching a peak of 275,600 tons, indicating a supply surplus [1][2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The demand for nickel in the new energy battery sector grew less than expected, at under 8%, while stainless steel procurement remained sluggish due to slow real estate recovery [1]. - High inventory levels are projected to persist, with ING estimating a global nickel surplus of 261,000 tons by 2026, contrasting sharply with the optimistic supply tightening expectations from Indonesia [2]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Profitability - Upstream nickel mining and smelting companies benefited from the price surge, with companies like Huayou Cobalt seeing significant profit increases from rising nickel prices [2][3]. - Midstream processing companies face challenges in cost transmission, while downstream stainless steel and battery manufacturers are caught in a dilemma regarding pricing strategies, which could further suppress nickel demand [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategies - The nickel market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation, with 140,000 yuan per ton identified as a critical support level [3]. - The future price trajectory hinges on the enforcement of Indonesia's production quota policy, with potential supply gaps of 10 to 20 million tons if strictly adhered to [3]. - Investors are advised to shift focus from policy expectations to fundamental realities, monitoring the execution of Indonesia's quota policy and global nickel inventory trends [4].

Group 1: Nickel Price and Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have surged, with three-month nickel futures increasing by 10% to reach $18,735 per ton, the highest level since June 2024 [1] - The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) projects global nickel demand to reach 3.82 million tons and production to hit 4.09 million tons by 2026, with a potential supply-demand reversal due to a forecasted reduction of 200,000 to 300,000 tons in Indonesian nickel production [1] - The price increase is primarily driven by Indonesia's plans to cut nickel ore quotas and macroeconomic sentiment, as stated by Jinrui Futures nickel researcher Dai Zizhao [1] Group 2: Indonesian Policy Changes - Indonesia, the world's largest nickel producer, plans to significantly reduce its nickel production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons by 2026, a cut of 34%, to control oversupply and support prices [2] - The tightening of nickel ore quotas is expected to have a minimal economic impact on Indonesia, and higher nickel prices could enhance tax revenues and increase the value of local resources, making the implementation of these policies likely [2] Group 3: Companies in the Nickel Industry - Liqin Resources (02245) has submitted application materials for a proposed A-share issuance to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, covering a complete industrial chain including nickel ore trading, smelting production, and equipment manufacturing [3] - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has been strategically investing in upstream nickel, phosphorus, and lithium resources globally since 2022, with expectations to self-supply 30,000 tons of metal nickel by 2026, potentially increasing profits by 20 to 30 million yuan [3] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) owns several nickel-copper mines and has additional mineral resources, indicating a diversified portfolio in the nickel sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set the 2026 RKAB quota at 250 million tons, a significant decrease of 34% from the 379 million tons in 2025, aiming to prevent further declines in nickel prices [1] Group 1: RKAB Quota and Market Dynamics - The 2026 RKAB quota is expected to create a supply gap of 57 million tons, as the estimated demand for nickel ore is at least 327 million wet tons [1] - Historical data shows that the Indonesian government has a tendency to approve higher RKAB quotas than initially planned, leading to a cautious outlook on the actual implementation of the quota reduction [2] - The anticipated RKAB quota for 2026 is expected to fall between 280 million to 320 million tons, influenced by short-term supply shortage expectations [2] Group 2: Nickel Pricing and Taxation Policies - A revised nickel reference price (HPM) calculation formula is set to be released in early 2026, which will classify cobalt as an independent commodity subject to royalties [3] - The introduction of a royalty on cobalt could potentially increase government revenue by approximately $600 million annually, even with a low cobalt content in nickel ore [3] - The cost increase for nickel production due to cobalt royalties is estimated to be between $65 to $371.43 per ton, depending on the royalty rate applied [3][4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Projections - Recent policy expectations regarding RKAB quota reductions and cobalt taxation have led to a rapid rebound in nickel futures prices, with a notable V-shaped recovery observed [5] - Predictions indicate that Indonesia's MHP capacity will reach 850,000 metal tons in 2026, with a production increase of over 45%, potentially leading to further oversupply in the global nickel market [6] - The short-term price movements of nickel are expected to be driven by market sentiment, with limited upward potential unless more policies are implemented [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai nickel rebounded sharply with wide - range fluctuations at a low level. New policy disturbance risks remain, such as the reduction of new policy quotas in Indonesia's 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The release of Indonesia's MHP capacity suppresses prices. After the high - level of imported nickel shows some improvement, nickel inventories continue to increase. Downstream stainless - steel production and inventory are at high levels. It is expected that nickel prices will experience more intense low - level fluctuations overall [7]. - In terms of strategy, short - term long - position trading is recommended for the main contract of Shanghai nickel. For options, lightly buy out - of - the - money call and put options. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel production, and Indonesia's nickel element exports [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Week - long Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Situation**: Shanghai nickel had a sharp and volatile rebound at a low level last week. The RMB exchange rate is approaching the "7" mark. In November, the total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, with the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry increasing by 60.2% year - on - year. Indonesia may change its mining policy [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but there are still risks of new policy quota reduction in Indonesia's 2026 RKAB. China's nickel imports are large, remaining at a high level in November. In November, domestic ferronickel production was at a low level, while Indonesia's remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output in November increased slightly month - on - month. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level [7]. - **Demand**: In November, stainless - steel production declined slightly month - on - month, and it is expected to be restricted in December. Domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high, but the absolute value has decreased. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials has increased significantly in recent months [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME nickel inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, SHFE inventory increased month - on - month, and refined nickel social inventory increased slightly compared with last week [7]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industrial chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.3. Spot and Futures Markets - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (in yuan per ton) [11]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with an import volume of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In October - November 2025, imports were 468,280 tons and 333,940 tons respectively, showing a continued month - on - month decline [19]. - **Ferronickel**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In November 2025, the output was 157,400 tons, with a slight month - on - month increase and still at a high level. In 2024, domestic ferronickel output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In November 2025, the output was 22,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease and still at a low level. In November 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 895,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decline, and the inventory was 22,500 tons, remaining stable [24][28]. - **Refined Nickel**: In 2025, with the continuous release of electrowinning nickel capacity, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In November 2025, the total domestic refined nickel output was 28,192 tons, a month - on - month decline from the high level. In September - October 2025, the apparent consumption was 33,051.88 tons and 22,949.39 tons respectively. In November 2025, China's nickel imports were 233,000 tons, remaining at a high level, and exports were 13,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31][35]. 3.5. Intermediates - **Wet - process Intermediates**: In November 2025, Indonesia's MHP output was 40,100 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [42]. - **High - grade Nickel Matte**: Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output growth was relatively pressured this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In October - November 2025, the output was 29,800 tons and 31,200 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned intermediate - product production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [47]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: In November 2025, the output was 30,735.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease. In October - November 2025, nickel sulfate imports were 22,055 tons and 31,817.9 tons respectively [51]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Stainless - steel Demand**: In November 2025, stainless - steel production was 3.4931 million tons, showing a slight decline from the high level. The latest total social stainless - steel inventory was 992,960 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [57]. - **Cathode Material Demand**: From the perspective of power - battery structure, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In November 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 83,200 tons, continuing to rebound [62]. 3.7. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded - area Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 55,988 tons, showing a slight increase compared with last week [69]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of December 23, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. As of December 24, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 38,428 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [75].

Summary of Nickel Market Analysis and Outlook Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the nickel industry, particularly the developments in Indonesia's nickel production and regulatory environment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - Indonesia plans to limit nickel production to 150 million tons by 2030, a reduction of approximately 34% compared to 2025, indicating a strong commitment to controlling nickel supply, which may lead to price increases [1] - The Indonesian government is tightening regulations on Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), changing the RKA B approval process from every three years to annually, which increases operational costs for companies and supports nickel prices [1][3] - A planned acquisition of Delong Nickel Industry for 20 billion RMB aims to enhance upstream mining regulation and improve the value of the downstream industry chain, consolidating resources to boost fiscal revenue [1][3] - The establishment of the Dandanpala platform focuses on resource integration in mining processing, energy security, renewable resources, and deep processing of agricultural and fishery products, aimed at enhancing national fiscal capacity [1][4][5] - High-grade nickel ore consumption is accelerating, with average grades expected to decline from 1.66% in 2024 to 1.57% in 2025, a drop of about 7%, putting pressure on small mining companies and prompting the government to advocate for sustainable development [1][6] Future Market Outlook - The nickel market is expected to experience significant volatility in 2026 due to tightening supply and stricter policies, with the interaction between companies and the Indonesian government being crucial [1][7] - There is a potential for substantial price increases in the future, making nickel a key focus for investors [7] Investment Opportunities - Several domestic companies are actively investing in nickel-related fields, and investors are encouraged to engage with relevant teams for more detailed information to seize investment opportunities [1][8][9]

Core Insights - The Indonesian Nickel Price Index (INPI) released by the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) indicates an upward trend in the prices of nickel downstream products, while nickel ore prices remain stable compared to previous releases [3][6]. Nickel Ore Prices - Nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% (CIF) is priced at $22.5 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous index [4]. - Nickel ore with a grade of 1.6% (CIF) has a price range of $50.8 to $52.8 per metric ton, with an average price of $51.8 per metric ton, down by $0.1 from the previous average of $51.9 per metric ton [5]. Downstream Product Prices - Nickel pig iron (FOB) price has increased to $110.47 per metric ton, up by $0.15 from the previous price of $110.32 per metric ton [5]. - High-grade nickel matte (FOB) price has risen significantly to $13,017 per metric ton, an increase of $48 from the previous price of $12,969 per metric ton [6]. - MHP (FOB) price has also increased to $12,736 per metric ton, up by $42 from the previous price of $12,694 per metric ton [6]. Market Analysis - The price increases in nickel pig iron, high-grade nickel matte, and MHP reflect strong demand in the nickel downstream supply chain, primarily driven by the electric vehicle battery and stainless steel industries [6]. - The stability in nickel ore prices suggests that the domestic supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remains sufficient [6]. - The changes in the Indonesian Nickel Price Index serve as an important reference for industry stakeholders, including mining companies, smelters, and investors, in formulating production and sales strategies for the end of 2025 [6].