镍金属 - 2026 年开门红金属巡礼 20260108 摘要 印尼镍矿出口禁令及配额政策是影响全球镍价的关键因素。2019 年禁 令限制原材料出口，推动中国在印尼设厂冶炼中间品，近期收紧配额政 策预计将加剧供应紧张，支撑镍价上涨。 2026 年镍市场整体供过于求，库存累积导致价格承压，尽管年初印尼 调整特许经营权使用费税率有所提振，但宏观经济及中美贸易战等因素 也加剧了短期价格波动。 印尼政府计划收紧镍矿配额，预计 2027 年镍市场供需平衡将趋紧，可 能出现供应不足，推动镍价上涨，当前或处于底部抬升阶段，回调可能 提供投资机会。 四季度不锈钢传统旺季及新能源车购置税政策调整，曾短期提振镍需求， 但随着旺季结束和政策效应减退，镍价再次下跌，表明需求侧对镍价的 影响具有周期性。 印尼镍矿协会宣布 2026 年 RKAB 批量大幅减少，刺激市场情绪，推动 镍价上涨，但印尼政府的模糊表态又导致价格暴跌，表明市场情绪对镍 价的短期影响显著。 Q&A 当前镍行业的基本面和市场供需情况如何？ 当前镍行业的基本面受到印尼政策的显著影响。全球镍矿储量约为 1.3 亿金属 吨，其中印尼占了 5,500 万金属吨，约占全球储量 ...

1月8日，金属市场热门话题被#镍价暴涨后突发回调占据，据长江有色金属网获悉，长江现货1#镍均价 单日下跌1750元至150050元/吨，伦敦金属交易所（LME）镍价更是单日重挫4.21%，创下近10个月以来 的最大跌幅。短短数周内，镍价演绎了一轮从疯狂上涨到急速回调的"过山车"行情，其背后是印尼控产 政策、市场预期与基本面现实之间的激烈博弈。 政策预期点燃行情，基本面压力促回调 这一轮镍价上涨行情启动于2025年末，核心驱动力来自"政策预期"而非基本面实质性改善。印尼大幅削 减镍矿配额，从3.79亿吨缩减至2.5亿吨，降幅达34%，加之Vale Indonesia因审批问题暂停部分采矿作 业，共同点燃了市场对供应收紧的强烈预期。在三周时间内，镍价累计上涨超过3.6万元，涨幅突破 30%。然而，当市场情绪逐渐平复，"弱现实"开始显现。LME镍库存近期增加2万吨，总量升至27.56万 吨的阶段性高位。需求端同样表现疲软：新能源电池领域的用镍需求增速不及预期，不足8%；不锈钢 采购受房地产复苏缓慢影响持续低迷。现货市场"有价无市"的格局，难以支撑此前过度乐观的估值。 多重利空叠加，高库存成"压舱石" 本次镍价回调是 ...

中金表示，考虑到当前收紧镍矿配额对印尼经济冲击较小，且镍价抬升有利于增加税收，提升本土资源 的价值，收紧镍矿配额政策最终落实的概率较大。 受全球最大生产国印尼计划削减供应的提振，镍价触及九个月以来的最高水平。"本轮镍价上涨主要是 由印度尼西亚削减镍矿配额的叙事和宏观情绪共同推动的。"金瑞期货镍研究员戴梓兆表示。 印尼的镍产量是决定明年镍价走势的关键。印尼政府预计将通过收紧采矿配额(RKAB)的发放来控制供 应。除了收紧采矿配额以控制供应之外，据此前报道，印尼能源与矿产资源部还计划在2026年初修订镍 矿基准定价公式。印尼镍矿商协会(APNI)秘书长Meidy Katrin Lengkey透露，修订的要点之一是，政府 将开始把镍相关矿物(特别是钴)视为单独的商品，并对其征收特许权使用费。 在中辉期货基金经理王维芒看来，此轮镍价大涨主要由供应端政策剧变驱动。作为全球最大镍生产国， 印度尼西亚计划将2026年镍矿产量目标从3.79亿吨大幅下调至2.5亿吨，削减幅度达34%。这一旨在控制 供应过剩、支撑价格的政策信号，是引爆市场的核心导火索。同期，淡水河谷印度尼西亚公司暂停采矿 活动。 LME三个月期镍涨幅扩大至10 ...

尽管成本有所上升，但由于钴含量较低且一体化企业仍可通过钴的回收实现收益抵扣，传导到产业链的 实际净成本增幅有限。值得注意的是，相较于RKAB配额削减，我们认为伴生品征税政策落地的概率更 大。从历史经验看，印度尼西亚政府一季度在修改HMA和征收PNBP等价格政策方面的执行力度较配额 审批更为坚决，同时考虑到印度尼西亚镍矿品位逐年下降，资源民族主义倾向下税收价格政策比配额削 减政策更利于扩大国家整体财政收入。 综上所述，虽然近期沪镍期价在印度尼西亚配额削减与伴生品征税的双重扰动下走出一轮强势的底部反 弹行情，但印度尼西亚削减镍矿配额不确定性较大，钴等伴生品征税政策影响相对有限。根据相关机构 近期受印尼RKAB配额削减及伴生矿钴征税政策预期影响，沪镍主力合约期价自底部快速反弹，技术 形态呈现明显的V形反转走势，最高触及130880元／吨，突破前期震荡区间上沿。在政策预期与情绪驱 动下，多空博弈加剧。 印度尼西亚能源与矿产资源部计划将2026年RKAB配额设定为2.5亿吨，较2025年的3.79亿吨大幅下降 34%。印度尼西亚镍矿商协会秘书长梅迪解释称，此举旨在"防止镍价进一步下跌"，透露出明显的托底 意图。相关数据 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 政策扰动 大幅反弹 20251228 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核人：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 上周沪镍低位大幅震荡反弹。 u 消息：人民币汇率破"7"在望。本周以来，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率稳步走高，周三离岸人民币对美元升穿7.01，一度触及7.0013， 距离破"7"关口只步之遥。国家能源局公布数据显示，11月份全社会用电量8356亿千瓦时，同比增长6.2%。其中，充换电服务业用电量同 比增长60.2%。印度尼西亚镍矿企业协会(APNI)透露 ...

镍价影响因素与走势分析 20251224 摘要 印尼计划到 2030 年将镍产量限制在 1.5 亿吨，较 2025 年减少约 34%，表明其控制镍供应的决心，可能导致镍价上涨。 印尼政府加强对 MHP（混合氢氧化物沉淀物）的监管，包括将 RKA B 审批改为一年一批，并加强环保政策，增加企业运营成本，支撑镍价。 印尼计划以 200 亿人民币收购德龙镍业，旨在加强上游矿业监管和下游 产业链价值提升，整合资源以提高财政收入，并推动产业链附加值提升。 印尼成立丹丹帕拉平台，关注矿业加工、能源安全、可再生资源和农渔 产品深加工，旨在整合国内资源，提高财政端放松度，增强国家财政能 力。 高品位镍矿消耗加速，平均品位从 2024 年的 1.66%下降到 2025 年的 1.57%，一年内下滑约 7%，小型矿业公司面临压力，促使印尼政府倡 导可持续发展并严格管理开采年限。 预计 2026 年镍市场将呈现较大波动，受供给端收紧和政策趋严影响， 企业与印尼国家之间的干预将是关键，未来镍价可能显著上涨。 国内多家公司积极布局镍相关领域，投资者可与相关团队交流以获取更 多详细信息，把握投资机会。 Q&A 近期镍价的波动情况及其背后 ...

雅加达讯 —— 印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）于 12 月 22 日（周一）发布印尼镍价指数（INPI）。最新数据 显示，镍下游产品价格出现上涨态势，而镍矿价格相较往期发布则趋于稳定。 来源：市场资讯 | Products (USD/mt) | Price Range | | Average Change | Date Release | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Nickel Ore 1.2% (CIF) | 22-23 | 22.5 | 0 | Dec 22, 2025 | | Nickel Ore 1.6% (CIF) | 50.8-52.8 | 51.8 | -0.1 | Dec 22, 2025 | | Nickel Pig Iron (FOB) | 110.47 - 110.47 | 110.47 | +0.15 | Dec 22, 2025 | | High-Grade Nickel Matte (FOB) | 13,017 - 13,017 | 13,017 | 1 +48 | Dec 22, 2025 | | MHP FOB Price | 12,736 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has seen a significant increase, rising nearly 8% and currently trading at 28.7 HKD, with a transaction volume of 70.32 million HKD. This surge is influenced by Indonesia's government plans for nickel production targets, which are set to decrease significantly by 2026 compared to previous years [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Zhongwei Co. has been actively investing in upstream resources such as nickel, phosphorus, and lithium globally since 2022, in line with its integrated industrial strategy [1] - The company has secured strategic mineral resources including Indonesian laterite nickel, Argentinian lithium brine, and Guizhou phosphate [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Dongwu Securities has indicated that an increase in self-supply ratio for nickel is expected to contribute to profit elasticity for the company [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that the company will achieve a self-supply of 30,000 tons of metal nickel, with a self-supply ratio exceeding 25%, potentially increasing profits by 200-300 million CNY [1] - A slight increase in metal nickel prices is expected to lead to significant profit elasticity for the company [1]

Nickel Industry Research Summary Industry Overview - The global nickel production is expected to grow by 8% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, with Indonesia and China accounting for nearly 80% of the total production, indicating a significant dominance in the market [1][3] - The structure of nickel products is changing, with a slowdown in the demand for nickel sulfate due to the increasing share of lithium iron phosphate batteries, leading some companies to convert nickel sulfate into electrolytic nickel [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Trends**: - Indonesia's NPI (Nickel Pig Iron) production growth is slowing, with a capacity utilization rate of about 75%. In contrast, MHP (Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate) production is surging, with a year-on-year growth of 64% [1][9] - Global electrolytic nickel production is approximately 1 million tons, with China accounting for 60% and Indonesia for 20% [1][5] - **Price Influencing Factors**: - Key factors affecting nickel prices include rising ore and energy costs, increasing demand for high-purity nickel from the new energy industry, geopolitical factors, and Indonesia's export policies. Exchange inventory levels are also crucial indicators [1][7] - The historical price trend shows that nickel's bottom price has been rising, with significant fluctuations influenced by various market conditions [2] - **Market Supply and Demand**: - The global nickel market is expected to be oversupplied by 210,000 tons in 2025 and 260,000 tons in 2026, with cost increases providing price support [3][17] - China is projected to import around 1.3 million tons this year, with domestic production surplus of 150,000 tons [17] Additional Important Insights - **Indonesian Government Policies**: - Indonesia is regulating the nickel market through the issuance of mining quotas and regular price announcements for wet and pyrometallurgical ores, aiming to maximize benefits within the nickel supply chain [1][8] - The government has suggested suspending new RKEF (Rotary Kiln Electric Furnace) projects to control resource extraction speed while supporting projects that lead to higher value-added products [11][19] - **Future Production and Investment**: - New MHP projects are being developed, with several companies like Huayou Cobalt and others progressing well, indicating a positive outlook for MHP production [26] - The production costs vary significantly across regions, with some high-cost producers potentially facing reductions if prices fall below $14,000 per ton [24][30] - **Market Dynamics**: - The nickel market is sensitive to price fluctuations, with recent price drops leading to cash flow issues for NPI producers, prompting some to reduce output [20][29] - The balance of supply and demand is expected to shift as new capacities come online, potentially alleviating short-term supply pressures [20][31] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the nickel industry research, highlighting production trends, price influences, and regulatory impacts that shape the current and future landscape of the nickel market.

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Bullish Factors - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is continuously tight due to the rainy season, providing support at the cost end [3] - Some domestic ferronickel enterprises are undergoing maintenance, leading to an expected partial contraction in supply [3] Bearish Factors - The demand for downstream stainless steel is weak, with low procurement enthusiasm for raw materials [3] - The new production capacity of electrolytic nickel continues to be released, and the overall supply pressure remains [3] Trading Advisory Views - It is recommended to closely monitor the consumption of downstream stainless steel and the destocking of inventories to judge whether the demand side can be effectively improved [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - The latest values of Shanghai Nickel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 116,900 yuan/ton, 116,900 yuan/ton, 117,110 yuan/ton, and 117,320 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.19%, 2.50%, 2.52%, and 2.52% [4] - LME Nickel 3M is at 14,840 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.44% [4] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 34.55%, 13.4%, and 0.70% respectively [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The latest values of stainless steel main contract, consecutive one, consecutive two, and consecutive three are 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,410 yuan/ton, 12,480 yuan/ton, and 12,540 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1%, 0.98%, 0.89%, and 0.84% [5] - The trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipts decreased by 14.16%, 25.08%, and 2.23% respectively [5] Spot Prices - The latest prices of Jinchuan Nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel are 121,300 yuan/ton, 117,050 yuan/ton, 119,000 yuan/ton, 119,100 yuan/ton, and 116,750 yuan/ton respectively, with daily decreases of 0.61%, 0.64%, 0.71%, 0.63%, and 0.76% [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory is 52,259 tons, a decrease of 855 tons; LME nickel inventory is 255,450 tons, an increase of 930 tons [7] - Stainless steel social inventory is 946 tons, an increase of 6 tons; ferronickel inventory is 30,225 tons, an increase of 661 tons [7] Charts and Graphs - The report includes multiple charts and graphs showing the historical prices, production, and inventory data of nickel and stainless steel, such as the price trends of Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel, the production of Chinese refined nickel, and the inventory of domestic social nickel and LME nickel [8][14][15]