1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, Fed officials have released hawkish expectations, with the probability of a 25bp rate cut in December dropping to around 50%. The Fed may start a bond - buying program in December, and the US government shutdown has ended [3]. - Industrially, Philippine nickel ore prices are firm while Indonesian ore prices have slightly weakened. Nickel - iron prices have fallen due to weak stainless - steel consumption, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined. Pure - nickel spot trading is good [3]. - In the later stage, cost support is strong, and the room for a sharp decline in nickel prices is limited. The cost of nickel ore is likely to remain high, but the fundamentals are difficult to improve. However, nickel prices are at the absolute bottom of the range, waiting for a recovery in macro - expectations [3][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 117,080 | 119,440 | - 2,360 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 14,891 | 15,060 | - 169 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 252,090 | 253,104 | - 1,014 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 35,027 | 32,634 | + 2,393 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,900 | 3,100 | + 800 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 924 | 933 | - 9 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - Steel Inventory | 888,000 | 863,000 | + 25,000 | tons | [4] 3.2 Industry Situation - **Nickel Ore**: Philippine 1.5% laterite nickel ore FOB price is stable at $50/wet ton, and Indonesian 1.5% laterite nickel ore domestic FOB price is at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia may limit nickel production [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In October, the national refined - nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import from Russia increased significantly in September, while that from Norway decreased. The export scale increased year - on - year [7]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped. In October, China's nickel - iron production increased month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory structure changed, and the import from Indonesia increased [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's production also increased slightly. The expected production in November shows little change. The real - estate market is sluggish, restricting nickel - iron demand, but the decline in nickel - iron prices may slow down [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased, and the production increased year - on - year and month - on - month in October. The profit margins of some production processes improved [10]. - **New Energy**: From November 1 - 9, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Different regions have different subsidy policies [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - place social inventory of pure nickel increased, SHFE inventory increased, LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia will adjust nickel production in 2026 and may cut production in the work plan and cost budget [13]. - The second - phase project of Guangxi Feinan will start on November 18, with a designed production capacity of 20,000 metal tons/year of electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [13]. - Indonesia announced the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore for the second phase of November, which decreased by about 0.51% compared with the first phase [13]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, nickel futures inventory, high - nickel iron prices, nickel - ore port inventory, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [15][18][20][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the short term, the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down the nickel price. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, it is difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. However, in the long - term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may confirm the bottom earlier than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main contract price of Shanghai nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: In October, the nickel ore price remained stable. In the Philippines, due to increased rainfall and strong price - holding intention of mines, the price is unlikely to fall soon. In Indonesia, the overall supply and demand of pyrometallurgical ore is relatively loose, but the new rule on the approval cycle intensifies the expectation of "ore supply shortage", and smelters are speeding up stockpiling, with the price expected to remain stable or rise slightly. The hydrometallurgical ore market is dull, and the price is expected to remain stable [11]. - **Ferronickel**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak due to weak demand. The supply - side profit is squeezed, and the price - holding intention is strong. The demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and steel enterprises are pressing down the price. The demand side dominates the price, and the price is expected to remain weak [11]. - **Intermediate products**: The supply - demand tightness of the MHP market continues. The supply of MHP spot is limited, and sellers are strongly holding the price. The demand for battery pre - installation due to the subsidy withdrawal in 2026 makes downstream enterprises more accepting of high prices, and the MHP coefficient price remains strong [11]. - **Refined nickel**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. Macroscopically, although the Sino - US tariff negotiation made progress, the US government shutdown and the Fed's slightly hawkish stance led to a general decline in non - ferrous metal prices after a rise. In the spot market, the output of refined nickel remained high, and inventories continued to accumulate, with the spot premium stable [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures nickel price trend**: In October, the nickel price fluctuated weakly. As of November 6, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 119,440 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract was 15,055 US dollars/ton [17]. - **Nickel spot premium**: In October, the spot premium of domestic refined nickel fluctuated strongly. As of November 7, the premium of Russian nickel spot average price to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 3,100 yuan/ton, with the average price up 700 yuan/ton from the previous month [21]. - **Secondary nickel price**: In October, the ferronickel price was weak. As of November 6, the ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 912 - 921 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 38 yuan/nickel point from the previous month. The sulfuric acid nickel price was relatively strong, and as of November 6, the domestic spot price of sulfuric acid nickel was 28,340 - 28,600 yuan/ton, with the average price basically unchanged from the previous month [24]. 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The nickel ore price remained stable with a slight increase. On November 7, the arrival price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.7 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; that of 1.2% - grade was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from the previous month; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade Philippine nickel ore was 58 US dollars/wet ton, up 1 US dollar/ton from the previous month [33]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In October 2025, the national refined nickel output was 33,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from September [48]. - **Demand**: The demand for refined nickel is affected by the stainless - steel industry, manufacturing, and real - estate industries. The inventory of stainless - steel enterprises and the performance of terminal industries have an impact on demand [50]. - **Import and export**: No specific data on import and export changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts are provided [54]. - **Inventory**: In October, the global visible nickel inventory increased by 30,284 tons to 299,948 tons, with both China and the LME accumulating inventory [58]. 5. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Supply**: No specific data on supply changes in October are mentioned, but relevant charts on production and net import volume are provided [64]. - **Demand**: The demand for sulfuric acid nickel is related to the installation volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors [67]. - **Cost and price**: Charts on the production cost, price, and profit margin of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel are provided, but no specific data on October are mentioned [70]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides the supply - demand balance data from 2019 to 2025. From 2019 - 2025, the overall supply is greater than the demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is expected to be strong, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel. The supply of pure nickel remains high, and the MHP price provides cost support. The supply - demand of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in the third quarter [3][4][9]. - The global refined nickel inventory is increasing, and the deliverable products are abundant. The downstream consumption of refined nickel has little expansion, and the consumption growth rate is limited [12][28]. - The production of stainless steel remains at a high level, which supports the demand for primary nickel. However, the price of stainless steel is inverted to the cost, and the production schedule may be more conservative in November. The demand for stainless steel is lackluster, showing the characteristics of "not prosperous in the peak season and not weak in the off - season" [35][49][60]. - The strong demand for ternary materials has led to a tight supply - demand of nickel sulfate, and the price has risen. The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with both domestic and overseas markets having certain characteristics [75][90][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Trend**: In October, nickel prices continued to fluctuate widely, and the range has remained intact for three months. Policy factors such as the Fed's interest rate cut and Sino - US economic and trade consultations have increased market risk appetite, but there is no direct boost to the downstream demand for nickel [3][9]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: From September to October, there was no peak - season feature, and the off - season consumption was expected to be flat. The supply of pure nickel remained high, competing with nickel sulfate for MHP raw materials. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for pure nickel. The supply - demand of pure nickel changed little, and the inventory increased slowly [3][9]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Refined Nickel Inventory and Supply - **Inventory**: As of October 24, the global visible inventory reached 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 21,000 tons compared with the end of last month and 89,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year), and SMM's six - region social inventory at 49,000 tons (an increase of 7,900 tons compared with the end of last month and 7,600 tons compared with the beginning of the year) [12]. - **Supply**: The "PTENICO" brand nickel plate applied for LME delivery, and the total annual production capacity of Chinese - funded electrowon nickel brands applied for registration on the LME reached 221,600 tons. From January to September, LME nickel warrants increased by 74,000 tons [16]. SMM statistics show that China's refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic refined nickel output in October will remain at a high level of 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month [25]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel and Nickel Demand - **Raw Material Price and Supply**: In October, the price of Indonesian nickel ore was relatively stable. The production of Indonesian nickel ore is difficult to increase significantly, and the price is also difficult to fall sharply. The Philippines is gradually entering the rainy season, and the nickel ore port inventory has decreased. The nickel - iron plants and mines are in a deep game [35]. - **Production and Demand**: From January to September, the combined nickel - iron production of China and Indonesia was 1.598 million nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 21%. The production of stainless steel is expected to be more conservative in November due to cost inversion. The demand for stainless steel lacks highlights, and the social inventory has increased after the National Day [41][49][60]. 3.2.3 Ternary Demand and Nickel Sulfate Price - **Nickel Sulfate Price**: In the third quarter, the orders for ternary materials were unexpectedly strong, and the supply - demand of nickel sulfate was tight. The MHP price was firm, providing cost support for electrowon nickel and nickel sulfate [75]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: In the domestic market, from January to September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The sales of new energy heavy - duty trucks increased by 183% year - on - year to 138,700 vehicles. In the overseas market, from January to August 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 234,700 vehicles, and in the US by 8.1% year - on - year to 106,300 vehicles [90][102]. 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates once in December, Sino - US tariffs may be lowered, and the geopolitical situation will ease. The macro - atmosphere in the fourth quarter is strong. The downstream consumption of nickel is expected to be flat. The supply of refined nickel is loose, and it is expected to continue the wide - range fluctuation trend in November [4][113]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - Unilateral: Wide - range fluctuation [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Sell the wide - straddle combination [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro aspect: US inflation pressure is lower than expected, and the market anticipates two more Fed rate cuts this year. A US lending company, PrimaLend, declared bankruptcy due to debt default, increasing market risk - aversion and causing the US dollar index to rise. Sino - US trade talks are ongoing, with a new round to start in Malaysia over the weekend after limited results from the first round [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, leading to weaker shipments. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia remains abundant, with APNI slightly raising the domestic benchmark price. The stainless - steel market is still sluggish, with steel mills reducing production, and raw - material market price - pressing for inventory, squeezing the profit of nickel - iron plants. The popularity of nickel sulfate continues, while the fundamental situation of pure nickel remains weak, with inventory accumulating both at home and abroad [3]. - Future outlook: The nickel market lacks clear guidance and will continue to fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the RKAB approval quota scale. Indonesian mining companies have submitted their 2026 production plans, and the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources may announce next year's nickel - ore approval quota scale after review. If the approved quota deviates from market expectations, nickel - price volatility may intensify. Indonesia is tightening control over nickel resources, so the cost is unlikely to drop significantly, providing strong support for the nickel price. However, the fundamental situation shows no significant improvement, with the traditional consumer market remaining sluggish and the actual demand boost from the power - battery end limited, so it's difficult for the fundamentals to drive price changes. Although macro - narratives still affect nickel prices, the current nickel price is mostly insensitive to regular narratives, with limited fluctuation range [3][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | Index | 2025/10/24 | 2025/10/17 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 122150 | 121160 | 990 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15361 | 15126 | 235 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 250854 | 250530 | 324 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 26810 | 27042 | - 232 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2550 | 2450 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 650 | 550 | 100 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 947 | 947 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 85.3 | 86.5 | - 1.11 | Million tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro**: US September CPI growth was lower than expected, and the Fed is expected to cut rates twice this year. Due to government shutdowns, inflation data release was delayed, and the next - month data may not be released. Sino - US trade talks are progressing, with a new round in Malaysia after the first round was fruitless [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines rose from $49/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while that in Indonesia remained at $38.55/wet ton. Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for laterite nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is entering the rainy season, and future shipments are expected to decline [5]. - **Pure Nickel**: In September, China's refined - nickel production was 35,600 tons, a 13.07% year - on - year increase, with a capacity of about 54,198 tons and a 66% operating rate. Profitability improved, with MHP profit margin rising from 3.2% to 4.4% and integrated high - matte nickel profit margin rising from - 4% to - 2.6%. In September, China imported 28,367 tons of refined nickel, a significant 378.86% year - on - year increase, mainly from Russia. Exports were about 14,112 tons, a 33.21% year - on - year increase. As of October 23, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 645.74 Yuan/ton, with a slightly reduced loss [6]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 938 Yuan/nickel point to 930.5 Yuan/nickel point, a 0.08% weekly decline. In September, China's nickel - pig - iron production was 22,930 metal tons, a 0.09% month - on - month decrease, while Indonesia's was 139,900 nickel tons, a 0.14% year - on - year and 0.01% month - on - month increase. As of October 15, the nickel - iron physical - ton inventory was 253,100 tons, a slight increase of about 1,200 tons. In September, China imported about 1.0853 million tons of nickel iron, a 47.19% year - on - year increase, mainly from Indonesia [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production was about 1.79 million tons, a 100,000 - ton increase from last year and flat month - on - month. Indonesia's production was about 430,000 tons, a 30,000 - ton increase. In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel production is expected to decrease by 70,000 tons. As of October 23, the domestic 300 - series stainless - steel inventory was 557,300 tons, a decrease of about 4,900 tons. The supply contraction alleviated inventory pressure, but weak terminal consumption dragged down nickel - iron consumption and prices [9]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The battery - grade nickel - sulfate price remained at 28,550 Yuan/ton, and the electroplating - grade price at 30,750 Yuan/ton. In September, nickel - sulfate production was 33,971 tons (metal content), a 4.75% year - on - year and 11.45% month - on - month increase. The ternary - material production was about 75,360 tons, a 31.5% year - on - year and 2.6% month - on - month increase. As of October 24, the high - matte nickel to nickel - sulfate process profit margin was 5.4%, with a slight decline, while other raw - material process profit margins were negative [10]. - **New Energy**: From October 1 - 19, new - energy vehicle retail sales were 632,000 units, a 5% year - on - year and 2% month - on - month increase, with a 56.1% penetration rate. However, due to changes in the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax policy in 2026 and subsidy - policy adjustments, the actual demand may be affected, but there may be a release of pent - up demand at the end of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel is 48,802 tons, an increase of 1,094 tons. SHFE inventory is 26,810 tons, a decrease of 232 tons, and LME nickel inventory is 250,854 tons, an increase of 3,242 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 277,664 tons, an increase of 92 tons [11]. 3.3 Industry News - Indonesia announced the October (Phase II) domestic benchmark price for nickel ore, with a 0.27% increase from the October (Phase I) price [14]. - Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel) reported a 18.40% quarter - on - quarter increase in nickel production in Q3 2025, mainly due to increased raw - material processing and higher production at the Kola production base [14]. - The LME received a listing application for the "PTENICO" nickel brand from PT Eternal Nickel Industry, with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on domestic and international nickel - price trends, spot premium trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratio, nickel - futures inventory, nickel - ore port inventory, high - nickel - iron price, 300 - series stainless - steel price, and stainless - steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been fluctuating around 121,000, facing pressure from an overall surplus in the industry chain, with cost support preventing further declines [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - Indonesia accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, and the government has tightened control over nickel ore supply by reducing mining quota validity from three years to one year, requiring miners to reapply for previously granted quotas [1] - Nickel ore prices have remained stable recently, with the price for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB 43.5 and domestic prices ranging from CIF 49.5 to 50.5 [1] - Domestic nickel ore inventory reached 15.2884 million wet tons as of October 17, with a cumulative import of 32.167 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] Production Insights - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 178,200 tons in September, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 19.73% [4] - China's refined nickel production in September was 36,795 tons, maintaining a high level, with a cumulative production of nearly 320,000 tons from January to September, up 35.9% year-on-year [6] - Nickel pig iron imports in September were 1.0853 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [4] Demand Trends - The demand for nickel is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant [8] - Domestic production of 300 series stainless steel in September was 1.7627 million tons, a slight increase from August, while the production for October is expected to remain stable [8] - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has risen to 28,550 yuan per ton, indicating a tightening supply for intermediate products [8] Market Summary - The overall industry chain remains in a state of surplus, with high port inventories and increased nickel pig iron imports from Indonesia, leading to downward pressure on prices [10] - Refined nickel production remains high, with elevated inventories both domestically and in LME, contributing to a loose supply environment [10] - Downstream demand for stainless steel is weak, although there are signs of improvement in the ternary battery sector, which may provide limited support [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday trends of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are mainly volatile, with a late - session rebound. The fundamentals have no significant changes recently. There are still expectations of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and there is a certain easing sentiment regarding Sino - US tariffs [3]. - The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions, while the new energy sector is entering a peak season with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. Nickel iron prices lack upward momentum and may run weakly, and stainless steel may see a slight downward shift in its center of gravity [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the shortening of nickel ore quota license periods in Indonesia, the progress of nickel - integrated smelter construction, and favorable news for stainless steel exports. Negative factors include high pure nickel inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and weak demand for nickel iron and stainless steel [6]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Shanghai Nickel**: The price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.87% and a historical percentile of 6.1% [2]. Risk Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory impairment, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When there is a future production procurement demand and concerns about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Inventory Management**: Similar to Shanghai nickel, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio when facing inventory impairment risks [3]. - **Procurement Management**: Buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options when worried about rising raw material prices [3]. Market Data - **Nickel Disk Data** - The latest values of Shanghai nickel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three show different degrees of increase compared to the previous period, with the LME nickel 3M also rising by 0.29%. Trading volume decreased by 19.84%, and open interest decreased by 3.57% [6]. - **Stainless Steel Disk Data** - The latest values of stainless steel main - continuous, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three also increased. Trading volume increased by 11.18%, and open interest increased by 4.01% [7]. - **Inventory Data** - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 2,866 tons to 43,694 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3,498 tons to 246,756 tons, stainless steel social inventory decreased by 3.4 tons to 905.6 tons, and nickel pig iron inventory increased by 584 tons to 29,236 tons [7]. Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay; the construction of the nickel - integrated smelter jointly promoted by CATL and Antam continues; the WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is illegal; the exemption of the Indian BIS certification is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors**: High pure nickel inventories; resurgence of Sino - US tariff disturbances; overall downward shift of the nickel iron center with weakened bottom support; stainless steel shows a situation of "peak season without prosperity" with demand recovery falling short of expectations [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend rating for nickel is "shock", and the medium - term view is bullish [1] Core Viewpoints - The main operating range of nickel is between 118,000 and 126,000 yuan/ton; there is no upward breakthrough momentum in the short - term, but a bullish outlook in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long when the price approaches the lower limit [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro & Industry News - Botswana implemented a new mining regulation on October 1st, 2025. If the government chooses not to acquire the corresponding equity of a mining right, mining companies must sell 24% of the new mining right to local investors. The previous regulation allowed the government to acquire 15% of the mining right, and a higher proportion for diamond projects [1] 2. Supply - For nickel ore, the approaching rainy season in the Philippines and the previous riots in Indonesia may support the ore price. The nickel industry chain has been in an overall oversupply situation, and although the oversupply level may decline, the current situation is still one of oversupply, with relatively stable price ranges. For nickel iron, the profit in Indonesia is low but still positive, while domestic production is in the red. However, Indonesia's nickel - iron production continues to increase year - on - year. The production cost of electrowinning nickel for integrated pure - nickel enterprises has dropped to 118,500 yuan/ton, and the cost is relatively firm due to the support from the Indonesian government and the Philippines' rainy season. The bottom - line reference for pure nickel is about 118,000 yuan/ton [2] 3. Demand - The profit of the stainless - steel industry has recovered recently but is still in the loss range. The full - cost tracked by SMM is about 13,879 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost is about 13,017 yuan/ton. There is still an oversupply expectation in the nickel - ore end, which may drive down the nickel - iron price, and the stainless - steel price is still some distance from the cost support. In terms of demand, the real - estate market is at the bottom, small household appliances have recovered due to national subsidies, and there are few changes in tableware and medical devices. The substitution trend of infrastructure demand by 200 - series and 400 - series (low - quality stainless steel) continues. In the element competition, in a poor economic environment, the market pursues cost - effectiveness. Ternary batteries are gradually being replaced by lithium iron phosphate, and the high - nickel trend of ternary batteries has paused, with the proportion of 811 decreasing monthly and a shift to 622, which is generally unfavorable for nickel - element digestion, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Inventory and Structure - LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is increasing at an accelerated pace. The futures - spot and inter - month relationships maintain a Contango structure [3] 5. Other Data Analysis - The report also includes various data charts on macro - indicators, spot premiums and discounts, spreads, inventory, profit, and import profit and loss for metals such as lead, zinc, and nickel, which can be used for comprehensive analysis of the metals market [5][7][25][34][46][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with demand mainly relying on battery - end increments and supply being affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and overseas tariff policies, along with the domestic "anti - involution" narrative, will influence nickel prices. The fundamental situation shows that the oversupply of primary nickel is hard to change, and nickel prices are hovering at the bottom [119]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro Aspects - The Fed's interest - rate cut probability in September is almost certain, but the subsequent interest - rate cut path is unclear. The market should focus on the Fed's September FOMC meeting, dot plot, economic forecasts, and Powell's statements [15]. - The US employment situation has deteriorated significantly, with the unemployment rate reaching a new high since October 2021, while inflation is rising steadily, increasing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude [16]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI is still below the boom - bust line, while the service PMI performs well [17]. - China's economy showed better - than - expected performance in the first half of 2025, but some macro data have weakened recently. The government's policy orientation focuses on five key areas, and the "anti - involution" policy has been intensified, which may have a phased impact on industrial product prices [20][25]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis Supply Side - Philippine nickel ore shipments are at a peak, and port nickel ore inventories are seasonally increasing. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the port inventory increased by 50.1% compared to mid - year [32]. - Indonesian nickel ore premiums are at a high level, and imports from the Philippines are increasing. The RKAB approval policy needs attention, and the import volume of Philippine nickel ore by Indonesia is expected to reach 13 million wet tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 24.16% [39]. - Indonesian nickel - related policies have a significant impact on the industry. Policies such as export foreign - exchange control, adjustment of metal - mineral pricing methods, and shortening of RKAB quota approval years have increased the operating costs of Chinese - funded enterprises in Indonesia and affected the production and pricing of nickel products [43]. - China's nickel - iron production is generally declining, but prices have rebounded slightly recently. From January to August 2025, China's nickel - iron production decreased by 6.42% year - on - year, and prices rebounded from 900 yuan/nickel to around 955 yuan/nickel [52]. - Indonesian nickel - iron production continues to increase, and China's nickel - iron imports are rising, with Indonesia accounting for 97.5% of imports. From January to August 2025, Indonesian nickel - iron production increased by 24.81% year - on - year, and from January to July, China's nickel - iron imports increased by 16.3% year - on - year [60]. - The expansion of Indonesian NPI capacity has slowed down significantly, and attention should be paid to policy disturbances. The number of projects to be commissioned is decreasing, and profit conditions and policies will affect the commissioning progress [61]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product supply continues to increase, with MHP production increasing significantly, ice - nickel production decreasing, and imports of both maintaining an upward trend. From January to August 2025, Indonesian MHP production increased by 58.76% year - on - year, and ice - nickel production decreased by 15.25% year - on - year [64]. - Indonesian nickel intermediate product capacity is still being commissioned. In 2025 - 2026, there are many MHP and ice - nickel projects to be commissioned, such as the Green Aiko and MMP projects [66]. - China's refined - nickel production has increased significantly, and global capacity is still in an expansion cycle. In 2025, China's estimated refined - nickel production is 440,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.5%. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of domestic and Indonesian projects [72]. - In terms of imports and exports, China's refined - nickel imports are mainly from Russia and Indonesia, and exports are mainly to LME delivery warehouses. From January to July 2025, imports increased by 189.27% year - on - year, and exports increased by 78.18% year - on - year [73]. - In terms of valuation, the valuation of pure nickel is anchored to the integrated production cost of electrowinning nickel. The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel is relatively low, around 111,000 - 116,000 yuan/ton as of August 2025 [83]. Demand Side - Stainless - steel production is increasing year by year, and steel mills maintain a relatively high production schedule. From January to August 2025, stainless - steel production increased by 5.54% year - on - year, and Indonesian stainless - steel production increased by 0.08% year - on - year [88]. - The "rush - to - export" effect still exists, and stainless - steel demand maintains a certain level of resilience. From January to July 2025, domestic stainless - steel apparent consumption increased by 3.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a 3% growth rate for the whole year [89]. - The MHP coefficient is strong, and nickel - sulfate production remains stable. From January to July 2025, China's nickel - sulfate production increased by 0.1% year - on - year [95]. - The proportion of ternary batteries in new - energy vehicles is low, and the growth rate of nickel demand from the new - energy sector has slowed down. From January to July 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries accounted for 18.7% of the total, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.7% [111]. Inventory - Overseas LME nickel inventory is expected to continue to increase. As of September 5, 2025, LME nickel inventory increased by 5.48% compared to mid - year [115]. - China's domestic social inventory has decreased overall this year but increased slightly in the second half of the year. As of September 5, 2025, it increased by 7.1% compared to mid - year [115]. 3.3 Viewpoint Summary - Global primary nickel supply continues to increase, while demand shows mixed trends. Stainless - steel demand maintains some resilience, but there is a risk of weakening downstream orders. The new - energy sector has limited incremental demand for nickel, and the long - term focus is on the demand from solid - state batteries [117]. - Nickel remains in an oversupply situation. In the medium - to - long term, demand growth depends on the battery sector, and supply is affected by Indonesian policies and project commissioning speed [118]. - Macroeconomic uncertainties and fundamental oversupply will keep nickel prices hovering at the bottom. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to mining - end news and macro changes, and the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel can be used as a reference for the lower - end valuation of pure nickel [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Although refined nickel imports exceeded expectations last month, part of the inventory became hidden, causing no significant impact on domestic supply. The nickel ore price is relatively firm, with no further downward drivers in the future. Despite the expectation of peak - season stockpiling in September, which may support the demand for primary nickel, the supply side remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Weak demand dominates short - term price adjustments, while the peak - season expectations of "Golden September and Silver October" may provide bottom support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price - related**: As of August 22, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week; the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by 0 and 0.1 to 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang Port were flat at 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan per nickel point to 930 yuan per nickel point, a 0.49% increase [3][27]. - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase; the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.01 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.04% decrease; Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][57]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 411 tons to 2.26 million tons, a 1.86% increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1914 tons to 20.97 million tons, a 0.90% decrease; the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 1019 tons to 4.09 million tons, a 2.43% decrease [40]. - **Trade - related**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 1.55 million tons, a 53.27% increase; the monthly import volume was 3.82 million tons, a 124.36% increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 10.73 million tons, an 80.28% increase; the cumulative import volume was 13.51 million tons, a 180.97% increase [37]. Stainless Steel - **Price - related**: Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2510 opened at 13015 yuan per ton and closed at 12750 yuan per ton, a 2.0% decrease. As of August 25, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 50 to 13075 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease [63]. - **Production - related**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons. Among them, the 300 - series production increased by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series production increased by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series production decreased by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [66]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 109.17 million tons, a 1.19% increase. Among them, the 300 - series inventory increased by 1.42 million tons to 65.87 million tons, a 2.20% increase. As of August 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1406 tons to 10.17 million tons, a 1.36% decrease [68]. - **Cost and Profit - related**: As of August 22, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 52 yuan per ton to 13054 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the production profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to - 3.52% [72]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. The monthly import volume was 1.69 million tons, a 27.63% increase; the monthly export volume was 660.5 tons, a 15.55% decrease [50]. - **Profit - related**: As of August 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag changed by - 0.1, + 1.2, + 0.5, and + 1.1 percentage points to - 1.1%, - 2.4%, 4.9%, and - 1.4% respectively compared to last week [53].