电石、氯碱行业交流 20260107 摘要 陕西省出台差别电价政策，旨在通过对限制类和淘汰类企业加征电费， 倒逼产业结构调整和技术升级，但因其产能占全国比例较低（约 10%） 且开工率不高，预计对全国市场影响有限，除非对自备电厂企业加价。 "限制类"企业指工艺技术落后、不符合行业准入标准、不利于安全生产 或"双碳"目标的企业；"淘汰类"企业指阻碍碳达峰和碳中和目标的 落后工艺、技术、设备或产品。这些分类标准随行业发展不断优化，反 映了国家对高耗能产业环保和技术门槛的提升。 内蒙古已执行 3 万千伏安以下电石炉淘汰政策，现有电石炉多为中大型， 能耗和污染影响较小。未来的电力政策重点在于长协和市场交易电价， 自备电厂预计受影响较小，将继续按自身发电成本和少量过网费运行。 在反内卷背景下，PVC 行业因 20 年以上老旧产能相对较少，且经过技 术改造，未面临直接淘汰风险，更可能通过成本端优化供应，如高成本 区域因亏损退出。烧碱行业盈利较好，优胜劣汰影响小。 电石行业每年约有百万吨长期停车产能自发淘汰，对市场影响不大；烧 碱行业每年仅零星退出约 10 万吨产能，影响甚微；PVC 行业虽有 110 万吨产能退出，但新增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Natural Rubber Industry - Short - term rubber price may rise due to commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals are weak. Consider short - selling around 15700 [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The supply - demand pattern is bearish, prices are in a downward trend with occasional technical rebounds. Look for short - selling opportunities after rebounds [3]. - Glass: The spot market is under pressure, and the 05 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom before positive drivers emerge [3]. Crude Oil Industry - International crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events. The supply is in excess, and prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel. Monitor EIA data and geopolitical developments [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate between 5300 - 5600. - Styrene: The short - term rebound space is limited. Consider short - selling EB02/03 above 6800 and narrowing the EB spread [6]. Polyolefin Industry - PP: Supply increases while demand decreases, and the 05 contract may face pressure if there are few planned maintenance in 1 - 3 months. - PE: Supply and demand are both weak, but the marginal situation is improving, and short - term pressure is relieved [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The supply - demand is weak, inventory is high, and the rebound height is limited. - PVC: The spot fundamentals are weak, and it is difficult to support price increases [8]. Urea Industry - The short - term supply is high, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate widely, with the futures main contract focusing on the 1700 - 1760 range [9]. LPG Industry No clear overall view provided in the given LPG - related content. Ester Industry - PX: The short - term supply - demand may weaken, with prices adjusting before the Spring Festival. Consider exiting long positions, short - selling for the aggressive, and low - buying in the medium - term. - PTA: Follow raw material fluctuations. Exit long positions, short - sell for the aggressive, and low - buy in the medium - term. - MEG: Overseas supply may shrink, but near - month inventory accumulation is expected, and price increases face resistance. - Short - fiber: Follow raw material fluctuations, and narrow the processing spread when it is high. - Bottle chips: Domestic supply is expected to increase, and compress the processing spread when it is high [13]. Methanol Industry - The port may face inventory accumulation in December, and the supply - demand balance may turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland price oscillates narrowly. Monitor inventory reduction after the actual arrival at the port decreases [16]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Industry Spot Prices and Basis - Yunnan state - owned full - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 15200 to 15300, with a 0.66% increase. - The full - latex basis increased by 9.43% to - 480 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 50% to 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Consumption - Thailand's November production decreased by 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons. - China's November production increased by 23.70 thousand tons [1]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 3.28% to 515227 tons [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - North China glass price remained at 1010 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of glass decreased by 5.13% to 74 yuan/ton [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - Northwest soda ash price decreased by 4.21% to 910 yuan/ton. - The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 3.24% to 179 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output decreased by 1.33% to 71.18 million tons [3]. Inventory - Soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.06% to 143.85 million tons [3]. Crude Oil Industry Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil decreased by 2.57% to 60.64 dollars per barrel [4]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB decreased by 2.86% to 169.71 cents per gallon [4]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - The pure benzene - naphtha spread increased by 3.9% to 133 dollars/ton [6]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene East China spot price increased by 2.4% to 6700 dollars/ton [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 3.4% to 13.93 million tons [6]. Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - L2601 closed at 6388 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. - The L15 spread decreased by 61.70% to - 76 yuan/ton [7]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 5.99% to 45.9 million tons [7]. Operating Rates - PE device operating rate decreased by 1.46% to 82.6% [7]. PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Spot and Futures Prices - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% decreased by 0.7% to 2218.8 yuan/ton. - V2605 increased by 1.6% to 4832 yuan/ton [8]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2% to 88.7%. - PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9% to 75.4% [8]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory decreased by 2.6% to 22.1 million tons [8]. Urea Industry Futures and Spot Prices - The 01 contract of urea decreased by 0.48% to 1667 yuan/ton [9]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily output remained at 19.19 million tons. - Factory inventory decreased by 9.39% to 106.89 million tons [9]. LPG Industry LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract increased by 0.07% to 4238 yuan/ton. - The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.63% to 158 yuan/ton [11]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 1.69% to 24.1%. - Downstream PDH operating rate increased by 1.81% to 76.4% [11]. Ester Industry Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 2.6% to 60.64 dollars per barrel. - CFR China PX increased by 2.0% to 918 dollars/ton [13]. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price increased by 2.0% to 6570 yuan/ton [13]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 0.6% to 79.5% [13]. Methanol Industry Methanol Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2130 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. - The MTO05盘面 increased by 13.18% to - 191 [14]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.28% to 40.397 million tons [15]. Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.46% to 77.99% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Short - term fundamentals change little. The rubber price rises due to the increasing preference for commodities, but there is a risk of a sharp fall after a rise [1]. Methanol - The port may face inventory accumulation pressure in December, but the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The supply - demand pattern in the inland area is expected to be stable, and the price will fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. Polyolefins - For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, with low marginal device valuation and a slight reduction in inventory. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, with a decrease in the marginal supply of standard products, low valuation, and the futures price rising with reduced positions [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene may maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with the BZ2603 contract likely to fluctuate between 5300 - 5600. Styrene's rebound space is limited, and the EB02 contract may fluctuate between 6300 - 6700 [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash's supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the price is in a downward - fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Glass's market still faces pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's price is expected to be weak in the short term, and its rebound range is limited. PVC is expected to continue to move in a range, and its rebound height is limited [11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate between 60 - 65 dollars per barrel, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation after the holiday [12]. Urea - Urea prices may fluctuate between 1700 - 1750. It is necessary to pay attention to the enterprise's replenishment demand and the progress of export policies [14]. LPG - No clear overall view is provided in the LPG - related content. Polyester Industry Chain - PX may continue to be strong in the short term, but caution is needed. PTA's upward movement is limited. MEG is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Short - fiber's absolute price has limited drivers. Bottle - chip's processing fees are expected to be compressed [18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose by 250 yuan/ton to 15100 yuan/ton, with a 1.68% increase. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a 25.00% decline [1]. Monthly Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton, a 107.69% increase. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 65 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton, a 185.71% decline [1]. Production and Inventory - Thailand's October production decreased by 48.3 thousand tons to 466.2 thousand tons, a 9.39% decline. The bonded - area inventory increased by 16339 tons to 515227 tons, a 3.28% increase [1]. Methanol Prices and Spreads - The MA2601 closing price rose by 4 yuan/ton to 2134 yuan/ton, a 0.19% increase. The MA15 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to - 38 yuan/ton, a 46.15% increase [4]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 40.397 million tons, a 3.28% increase. Methanol port inventory increased by 19.37 million tons to 141.3 million tons, a 15.89% increase [4]. Operating Rates - The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased by 0.99 percentage points to 77.63%, a 1.29% increase. The downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 1.51 percentage points to 86%, a 1.79% increase [4]. Polyolefins Prices and Spreads - The L2601 closing price rose by 104 yuan/ton to 6320 yuan/ton, a 1.67% increase. The L15 spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a 16.00% decline [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.92 million tons to 45.9 million tons, a 5.99% decline. PP trade - dealer inventory decreased by 2.01 million tons to 18.7 million tons, a 9.70% decline [8]. Operating Rates - The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.25 percentage points to 83.9%, a 0.30% decline. The PP device operating rate increased by 1.08 percentage points to 79.4%, a 1.37% increase [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The pure benzene - to - naphtha spread increased by 4 dollars per ton to 128 dollars per ton, a 3.2% increase [9]. Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads - Styrene's East - China spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The EB02 - EB03 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, a 12.3% increase [9]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.3 million tons to 27.3 million tons, a 5.0% increase. The domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 74.9%, a 0.2% decline [9]. Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - The glass 2601 price rose by 3 yuan/ton to 941 yuan/ton, a 0.32% increase. The soda ash 2605 price rose by 9 yuan/ton to 1184 yuan/ton, a 0.81% increase [10]. Production and Inventory - Soda ash's weekly production decreased by 1.4 million tons to 72.14 million tons, a 1.90% decline. Glass factory inventory increased by 33.1 million tons to 5855.8 million tons, a 0.57% increase [10]. PVC and Caustic Soda Prices and Spreads - The East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 4480 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase. The SH2601 price rose by 12 yuan/ton to 2150 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [11]. Supply and Demand - The caustic - soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%, a 1.5% decline. The PVC total operating rate decreased by 2.3 percentage points to 16.1%, a 2.9% decline [11]. Inventory - The liquid - caustic East - China factory inventory decreased by 1.4 million tons to 22.7 million tons, a 5.7% decline. The PVC upstream factory inventory decreased by 1.6 million tons to 32.9 million tons, a 4.6% decline [11]. Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude oil rose by 0.31 dollars per barrel to 62.38 dollars per barrel, a 0.50% increase. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.12 dollars per barrel to - 3.16 dollars per barrel, a 3.66% decline [12]. Refined Oil - NYM RBOB rose by 10.75 cents per gallon to 627.25 cents per gallon, a 1.74% increase. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 cents per gallon to - 3.15 cents per gallon, a 12.10% increase [12]. Urea Prices and Spreads - The methanol - main - contract price rose by 16 yuan/ton to 2172 yuan/ton, a 0.74% increase. The 01 - contract - to - 05 - contract spread decreased by 6 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a 9.68% decline [14]. Supply and Demand - The domestic urea daily production decreased to 19.5 million tons, a 0.00% change. The urea production factory operating rate remained at 80.62%, a 0.00% change [14]. Inventory - The domestic urea factory inventory decreased by 11.08 million tons to 106.89 million tons, a 9.39% decline. The domestic urea port inventory remained at 13.8 million tons, a 0.00% change [14]. LPG Prices and Spreads - The main PG2601 contract price rose by 36 yuan/ton to 4221 yuan/ton, a 0.86% increase. The PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 139 yuan/ton, a 9.74% decline [16]. Inventory and Operating Rates - The LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 million tons to 261 million tons, a 7.89% decline. The downstream PDH operating rate increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, a 2.92% increase [16]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Prices - Brent crude oil (February) decreased by 0.14 dollars per barrel to 62.24 dollars per barrel, a 0.2% decline. The POY150/48 price remained at 6395 yuan/ton, a 0.0% change [18]. PX - Related - CFR China PX rose by 5 dollars per ton to 901 dollars per ton, a 0.6% increase. The PX - to - naphtha spread increased by 6 dollars per ton to 447 dollars per ton, a 1.4% increase [18]. PTA and MEG - The PTA East - China spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 5015 yuan/ton, a 1.2% increase. The MEG port inventory increased by 3.0 million tons to 71.6 million tons, a 4.4% increase [18].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Supply - side, geopolitical tensions in Thailand and Cambodia have not eased, affecting local raw material supply, and domestic production areas are accelerating the suspension of production, so there is still support at the bottom of rubber prices. Demand - side, the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises will support overall capacity utilization, but enterprises will maintain production control in the short - term due to rising production and sales pressure. Market - side, considering the achievement of annual tasks, some agents still have moderate replenishment behavior, but it is the seasonal off - season, and actual market transactions are mainly for just - in - time needs. The market will continue to run weakly. Overall, rising port inventories and the off - season will limit the upside of rubber prices, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,000 - 15,500 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 23, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,850 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.34%. The basis of whole - latex decreased by 35 yuan/ton to - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.64%. Other spot prices also had corresponding changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00%. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.00% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 1.40 to 478.60, a decrease of 0.29%; Indonesia's production decreased by 2.90 to 186.10, a decrease of 1.53%; India's production increased by 4.40 to 89.40, an increase of 5.18%; China's production decreased by 7.70 to 113.50. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires decreased by 0.18 to 71.39%, and that of all - steel tires increased by 0.07 to 64.14%. In November, domestic tire production increased by 387.70 to 10,182.80 million pieces, an increase of 3.96%, and tire export volume increased by 484.00 to 5,657.00, an increase of 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: On December 23, the bonded area inventory increased by 16,339 to 515,227 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 to 58,968 tons, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View The market is trading the situation of high production in 2026 and weak reality. Polyolefins are being short - sold with increased positions. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to see a decline in costs and a compression of profits, and the price center will further decline. For PP, supply increases while demand decreases, the valuation of marginal devices remains low, and inventory decreases slightly. For PE, both supply and demand are weak, some full - density devices are switching from LLDPE to HDPE production, the marginal supply of standard products is decreasing, but prices are continuously falling, there is no speculative demand in the industry chain, and inventory has increased this week [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of L2601 increased by 60 to 6,246 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.97%. The L15 spread increased by 4 to - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.41% [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia increased by 20 to 6,020 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The North China LL basis decreased by 20 to - 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00% [4]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of PE devices decreased by 0.25 to 83.9%, a decrease of 0.30%. The weighted operating rate of PE downstream decreased by 0.55 to 42.5%, a decrease of 1.28% [4]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 1.72 to 48.8 tons, an increase of 3.65%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 53.71 to 0.0 tons, a decrease of 100.00% [4]. Group 3: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, methanol futures fluctuated narrowly. In the port area, although the arrival volume in December is still high, due to gas restrictions and device failures in Iran, the import volume in the far - term is expected to decrease significantly. Although there is still inventory accumulation pressure in December, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to inventory reduction in the first quarter of next year. In the inland area, the transfer price in Inner Mongolia has decreased. The supply side will maintain production due to the recovery of enterprise profits from falling coal prices. The demand side will see a slight recovery in traditional downstream operating rates and new MTO capacity put into operation. The inland supply - demand pattern is expected to stabilize, and prices will mainly fluctuate narrowly [6][7]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 23, the closing price of MA2601 increased by 14 to 2,130 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.66%. The MA15 spread increased by 13 to - 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33.33% [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 3.83 to 39.114 tons, an increase of 10.86%. Methanol port inventory decreased by 1.56 to 121.9 tons, a decrease of 1.26% [6]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.99 to 77.63%, an increase of 1.29%. The operating rate of externally - purchased MTO devices increased by 1.51 to 86%, an increase of 1.79% [6]. Group 4: PX - PTA - MEG - Polyester Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **PX**: In the short - term, without obvious negatives and with the support of geopolitics, PX may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern was tight from November to December, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the first quarter. Strategies include reducing positions on rallies, not chasing high prices, taking a long - position in the medium - term at low prices, and a positive spread for TA5 - 9 at low levels. - **MEG**: Supply is still abundant, and the supply - demand outlook is weak. It is expected to run weakly in the short - term. Strategies include a bearish spread for EG5 - 9 and holding the seller of EG2605 - C - 4100. - **Short - fiber**: Supply remains high, demand is seasonally weak, and prices are driven by raw materials. Strategies are the same as PTA, and short - fiber processing fees should be shorted on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the spot price of PX in RMB increased by 19 to 7,363 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 22 to 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.4% [8]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The PTA spot price increased by 70 to 4,955 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.4%. The PTA05 - PTA09 spread increased by 4 to 80 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.3% [8]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The EG2605 futures price decreased by 112 to 3,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 16 to - 81 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.6% [8]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: The price of polyester chips increased by 15 to 5,630 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.3%. The cash flow of POY150/48 increased by 7 to - 274 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.4% [8]. Group 5: Glass - Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, demand has shrunk overall, and the supply - demand pattern is bearish. Prices will continue to fluctuate downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the technical rebound of the futures. - **Glass**: Spot prices are under pressure, demand in the north has weakened significantly, and there are concerns about future demand. The futures market is also under pressure. The 01 contract will continue the delivery logic in December, and the 05 contract is expected to be weak before positive drivers appear [9]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: On December 23, the North China glass quotation decreased by 10 to 1,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. The 01 basis of glass decreased by 17 to 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.17% [9]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton. The 01 basis of soda ash decreased by 8 to 183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.19% [9]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 to 82.74%. Soda ash plant inventory increased by 0.5 to 149.93 tons, an increase of 0.33% [9]. Group 6: PVC - Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure on supply and demand. Although some regions have inventory reduction and downstream procurement enthusiasm, inventory levels are still high. Prices are expected to be bearish next week, especially in the East China region where supply is expected to increase. - **PVC**: The futures market is boosted by the macro - environment, but demand is weak. It is in the traditional off - season, and both domestic and export demand are poor. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and price rebounds are limited [10]. Summary by Directory - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: On December 23, the market price of East China calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 80 to 4,420 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.8%. The SH2605 futures price increased by 35 to 2,324 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.5% [10]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotation & Export Profit**: The FOB price of East China ports remained unchanged at 370 US dollars/ton. The export profit increased by 76.2 to 251.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 43.4% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 to 88.5%. The operating rate of PVC downstream products such as profiles decreased by 3.7 to 31.4%, a decrease of 10.5% [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of liquid caustic soda in East China factories decreased by 1.4 to 22.7 tons, a decrease of 5.7%. PVC total social inventory decreased by 0.7 to 51.1 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [10]. Group 7: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View On December 23, international crude oil continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela may escalate, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain, which will continue to affect crude oil prices. Although inventory data has not improved, the demand for refined oil products is expected to pick up during the Western holidays. Overall, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars/barrel, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [11]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 23, Brent crude oil increased by 0.31 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 0.50%. The Brent M1 - M3 spread increased by 0.06 to 0.84 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 7.69% [11]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: The NYM RBOB price increased by 0.10 to 174.32 US cents/gallon, a growth rate of 0.06%. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 0.34 to - 3.15 US cents/gallon, a decrease of 12.10% [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread decreased by 0.33 to 14.83 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.16%. The US diesel crack spread increased by 0.99 to 33.63 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.05% [11]. Group 8: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. Spring maintenance plans are being introduced, and with the support of rising oil prices, the downside space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 yuan/ton. - **Styrene**: As industry profits recover, supply has increased. But demand is weakening as downstream industries are in the off - season and losses are expanding. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upside of prices is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6,300 - 6,700 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 23, the price of Brent crude oil (February) increased by 1.91 to 62.38 US dollars/barrel, a growth rate of 3.2%. The pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 2 to 124 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.6% [13]. - **Styrene - related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 60 to 6,560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 1 to - 57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.7% [13]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.3 to 27.30 tons, an increase of 5.0%. The operating rate of styrene increased by 1.0 to 69.1%, an increase of 1.5% [13]. Group 9: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Core View Urea futures prices are rising, but spot prices are stable, and the market is mainly fulfilling previous orders. On the supply side, although the operating rate has decreased slightly due to some gas - based device shutdowns, daily production remains at a relatively high level, and supply pressure will increase after the resumption of some devices. On the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is weakening. Coal prices support urea prices from the cost side. In the short - term, the futures rebound is mainly driven by export expectations, and in the medium - term, the supply - demand weakness will dominate prices. Urea prices are expected to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to whether the futures main contract can hold above 1,730 yuan/ton, as well as device resumption and downstream demand [14]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 23, the 01 contract of urea futures increased by 10 to 1,649 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.61%. The 01 contract - 0

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Natural Rubber**: With geopolitical tensions affecting supply in Thailand and domestic产区 entering the off - season, there is support at the bottom of rubber prices. However, due to high production and sales pressure and the seasonal demand slump, the market is weak. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely between 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the supply may increase with the potential output from new projects, and demand is shrinking, so the price is expected to continue to decline with occasional technical rebounds. For glass, the spot price is stable but facing weakening demand in the north and high inventory in the middle - stream, so the futures price may be under pressure and continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda industry still has supply - demand pressure, and prices are expected to be weak. The PVC market is affected by high supply, low demand, and cost pressure, and is expected to maintain range - bound trading and then weaken after a rebound [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The market is trading on the expectation of high production in 2026 and weak current conditions. Both PE and PP are facing downward pressure on prices, with the price center expected to decline further [6]. - **Methanol**: Although the port may face inventory accumulation in December, there is an expected shift to inventory reduction in the first quarter of the next year. The inland market is expected to be stable with prices fluctuating slightly [10]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term driving force for pure benzene is weak due to weak downstream demand and cost support, but there is an expectation of improvement after the spring maintenance. Styrene is expected to oscillate between 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton due to sufficient supply and weak cost support [13]. - **LPG**: The LPG market shows a pattern of stable prices, inventory reduction, and some improvement in downstream demand. The price is expected to be relatively stable with some fluctuations [15]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: For PX, it may continue to be strong unless there is substantial production reduction in the polyester sector. PTA is expected to follow the raw material price with limited independent movement. MEG is expected to oscillate at a low level. Short - fiber prices follow the raw material, and the processing fee of bottle - chips is expected to be compressed [17]. - **Crude Oil**: The market is dominated by geopolitical factors. With high supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the price of Brent crude at $60 per barrel [18]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak, while the spot price is rising. The Indian tender is beneficial for exports, but high supply and weak demand in the domestic market lead to a difficult price trend. The futures price is expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1730 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Yunnan state - owned rubber, Thai - standard mixed rubber, etc. have decreased. The basis and inter - contract spreads have also changed. For example, the all - milk basis decreased by 25.93% [1]. - **Production and Supply**: Thailand's production decreased slightly in October, while India's increased. China's production decreased. The opening rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed slightly, and tire production and exports increased in November [1]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Spread**: The prices of glass and soda ash in different regions were mostly stable, with some futures prices decreasing. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. - **Supply**: The soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased slightly, while the melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. - **Inventory**: The glass inventory increased slightly, the soda ash factory inventory increased slightly, and the soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased [3]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction area, construction area, and sales area decreased year - on - year, while the completion area increased [3]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda in different forms decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the V - basis increased by 2600% [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry's supply - demand pressure remains, and the PVC industry has high supply and low demand. The opening rates of related industries changed slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda inventory in some regions decreased, and the PVC upstream factory inventory increased while the total social inventory decreased [4]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LLDPE, PP futures and spot decreased, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the LP01 spread decreased by 39.39% [6]. - **Inventory and Production**: The PE and PP enterprise inventories and social inventories changed, and the device opening rates of PE and PP also changed [6]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures and spot decreased, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the MA15 spread increased by 23.81% [8]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [9]. - **Production and Supply**: The upstream and downstream opening rates of methanol changed slightly [10]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures and spot changed slightly, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 0.3% [13]. - **Inventory and Production**: The pure benzene inventory remained unchanged, and the opening rates of related industries decreased [13]. LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of LPG futures and spot changed slightly, and the basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the PG01 - 02 spread decreased by 0.83% [15]. - **Inventory and Production**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio remained stable, the port inventory decreased, and the upstream and downstream opening rates changed [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as PX and downstream polyester products changed. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed. For example, the PX - naphtha spread increased by 12.4% [17]. - **Inventory and Production**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the opening rates of various industries in the polyester industry chain changed [17]. Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties changed. For example, the Brent - WTI spread increased by 3.40% [18]. - **Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products such as RBOB, ULSD, and Gasoil changed, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [18]. Urea - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of urea decreased slightly, and the spreads between different contracts changed. The spot price increased [20]. - **Inventory and Production**: The urea production is at a high level, the factory inventory decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [20].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

| 聚烯烃产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月18日 | | | | 张晓珍 | Z0003135 | | 品种 | 12月17日 | 12月16日 | 活的关 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | L2601收盘价 | 6439 | 6516 | -77 | -1.18% | 元/吨 | | L2605 收盘价 | 6479 | 6543 | -64 | -0.98% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6196 | 6192 | 4 | 0.06% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6254 | 6256 | -2 | -0.03% | | | L15价差 | -40 | -27 | -13 | -48.15% | | | PP15价差 | -58 | -64 | 6 | 9.38% | | | LP01价差 | 243 | 324 | -81 | -25.00% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6120 | 6110 | 10 | 0.16% | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation - expectation gaming phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors. Track the sentiment - driven market trends and prepare risk plans for potential right - side adjustments [4]. - The sentiment in the market remains high, but there are risks of policy expectation reversals both domestically and internationally. Be vigilant about the macro and fundamental resonance risks when market sentiment turns cold [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations in China are showing a swing. The Politburo Meeting on December 8 emphasized the continuation of an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and the Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and addressing "involution - style" competition. Multiple ministries have responded. China's November economic data shows industrial resilience, but consumption and fixed - asset investment are under pressure [2]. - The Fed has restarted a "restrictive" stance, with a planned purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. US economic data has shown mixed results, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI has different trends. There are risks of a downward trend in the market if sentiment cools [3]. Commodity Analysis - Non - ferrous metals: The long - term supply constraint problem has not been alleviated, and the certainty of investment remains high [4]. - Energy: OPEC members have proposed additional production cuts, and the EU plans to stop Russian gas imports by 2027. The expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has reduced concerns about oil supply disruptions. However, the oil market is facing a severe supply glut, and oil prices have dropped significantly [4]. - Chemicals: There is "anti - involution" potential in varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [4]. - Agriculture: With the Sino - US talks, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4]. - Precious metals: There are opportunities for buying on dips, but the short - term risk of silver has increased, and the gold - silver ratio has deviated from the reasonable repair range [4]. Key News - The Central Financial Office detailed the spirit of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference, stating that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue next year, aiming to promote economic growth and reasonable price recovery, using various monetary policy tools flexibly, and supporting key areas [6]. - China's November economic data shows that industrial production has resilience, but consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market are under pressure. The prices of 70 large and medium - sized cities have declined [6]. - US economic data includes an increase in non - farm payrolls in November, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a decline in the December manufacturing PMI [3][6]. - The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI has accelerated its contraction, with different performances in Germany and France [3]. - Brent crude oil prices have fallen below $60 per barrel, and WTI crude oil has reached a four - year low due to supply gluts [4][6].