Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on treasury bonds, recommended to hold a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Neutral on copper, recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday; bullish on aluminum, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on nickel, recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; neutral on tin, recommended for range trading; neutral on gold and silver, recommended for range trading [1][10][11][18][19] - **Energy and chemicals**: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefin, recommended for range trading; recommended for shorting 01 contract and longing 05 contract in soda ash [1][20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; neutral on PTA, recommended for narrow - range trading; bullish on apples, recommended for range - bound and upward trading; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range - bound and downward trading [1][33][34][35] - **Agriculture and livestock**: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to short on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; neutral on soybean meal, recommended for weak - range trading; bullish on oils, recommended for bottom - building and slight rebound trading [1][37][39][40][42][43] Core Views - Affected by the weakening of the external market and the pre - holiday effect, the A - share market is cautious, with significant structural differentiation. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term and are bullish in the long term. Treasury bonds are recommended to be observed due to potential long - term downward pressure [5] - The black building materials market is mixed. The coal market is active, while rebar is affected by weak industry and strong macro factors. Glass is expected to be supported by demand in October and is recommended to be bought on dips [7][8] - Non - ferrous metals are affected by various factors such as supply disruptions and macro policies. Copper is expected to be high - range volatile, aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading [10][11][17][18][19] - In the energy and chemical sector, most products are expected to oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost fluctuations, and policy uncertainties. Soda ash is recommended for a specific arbitrage strategy [20][21][23][25][26][27][29][31][32] - The cotton textile industry chain shows different trends. Cotton and cotton yarn are affected by supply - demand changes, PTA is affected by cost and supply - demand games, apples are expected to be strong, and jujubes are expected to be weak [33][34][35] - In the agriculture and livestock sector, pigs and eggs are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances. Corn is expected to oscillate, soybean meal is expected to be weak, and oils are expected to rebound slightly [37][39][40][42][43] Summaries by Categories Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: In the short term, the A - share market is affected by external and pre - holiday factors, with active large - tech sectors and weak small - cap stocks. In the long term, it is bullish, and buying on dips is recommended [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market rebounded on Friday, the long - term downward pressure remains. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the end - of - month data [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is active due to factors such as production reduction and price increases. It is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The futures price dropped last Friday. It is currently undervalued, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading before the holiday [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increased, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to be supported by demand in October. Buying on dips is recommended [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the mine accident in Grasberg, the copper price is expected to be high - range volatile. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is under pressure, while the electrolytic aluminum demand is in the peak season. Buying on dips is recommended [12][13] - **Nickel**: The nickel supply is in an oversupply situation in the long term. Shorting on rallies is recommended [17] - **Tin**: The tin supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. Range trading is recommended [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the US economic data and Fed policy expectations, range trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 4850 - 5050 range [20][21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are in a balanced state. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is recommended to focus on the 2450 - 2650 range [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weak - range volatile, and the 6700 - 7100 range is recommended [25] - **Rubber**: The downstream tire factory's pre - holiday replenishment is completed. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 15500 level is recommended as the support [25] - **Urea**: The supply increases, and the demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 contract's 1600 - 1630 support [26][27] - **Methanol**: The supply recovers, and the demand increases. It is expected to be strong - range volatile, and the 2330 - 2450 range is recommended [27] - **Polyolefin**: The demand recovers, and the supply increases slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the range, and the LL and PP contracts are recommended to focus on the 7200 - 7500 and 6900 - 7200 ranges respectively [28][29] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to short the 01 contract and long the 05 contract due to the expected supply increase [31][32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global supply and demand are adjusted, and the future price may face pressure. Range trading is recommended [33] - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand, it is expected to be narrow - range volatile [33][34] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to be strong - range volatile [34] - **Jujubes**: The market is light, and it is expected to rebound in a range [35] Agriculture and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is large, and the price is under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 05 - 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and shorting on rallies is recommended. The 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to be observed [39] - **Corn**: The new crop supply eases the tight supply situation. A short - selling strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [40][41] - **Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak - range volatile. Holding long positions on dips is recommended [42] - **Oils**: The palm oil and soybean oil fundamentals have some support, and the rapeseed oil supply has a gap. It is expected to rebound slightly, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunities [43][44][45][46][47][48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as Fed rate - cut expectations, Sino - US trade negotiations, and geopolitical issues. Short - term oil prices are expected to be volatile [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a complex supply - demand situation. With increasing supply and weak pre - holiday demand, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][4]. - The fuel oil market has different trends for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils. High - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from high inventory, while low - sulfur fuel oil has increasing supply and weak demand [5][6]. - The PX & PTA market has a tight balance in the short - term, but the supply is expected to increase in the medium - term, and the price is affected by macro and cost factors [8][9]. - The ethylene glycol market has an expected increase in supply and a weakening demand, with a risk of inventory accumulation [11][12]. - The short - fiber market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, but the processing fee is expected to remain low [13][14]. - The PR (bottle - chip) market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term due to rising raw material prices, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate at a low level [14][15]. - The pure benzene and styrene market has different supply - demand situations. Pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be volatile; styrene supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - The propylene market has an increasing supply and weak downstream demand, and the price is recommended to be short - sold on rebounds [19][20]. - The plastic and PP market has a short - term price volatility due to rising oil prices and a medium - term bearish outlook [21][23]. - The PVC market has a large inventory pressure, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weak, with a bearish outlook in the short - and medium - term [23][26]. - The caustic soda market is in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term is weak, and the medium - term is expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28][29]. - The soda ash market is expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [31][32]. - The glass market is expected to be volatile before the holiday, affected by factors such as production, inventory, and demand [34][36]. - The methanol market has an increasing supply and a high port inventory, and the price rebound is limited [39]. - The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and export [40][41]. - The log market has a weak supply - demand situation, and the price can be slightly long - tried near the integer level [43]. - The pulp market has a high port inventory and weak demand, and the price can be slightly long - bought at the low point of last week [44][46]. - The offset printing paper market has a slight increase in supply and weak demand, and the price of the 01 contract can be short - sold near the lower limit of the spot price [47][48]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market has different trends for different types of rubber, and the trading strategies vary for different contracts [49][51]. - The butadiene rubber market has a decreasing capacity utilization rate, and the price of the 11 - contract can be short - tried [52][54]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2511 contract settled at $64.98, down $0.01 (- 0.02%); Brent2511 contract settled at $69.42, up $0.11 (+ 0.16%); SC2511 contract rose 6.6 to 488.9 yuan/barrel, and rose 2.2 to 491.1 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: A new Fed governor called for significant rate cuts, but other colleagues advocated caution. US initial jobless claims decreased, and investors thought it did not support further rate cuts. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affected oil prices [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations improved the macro - sentiment, and the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation increased the risk premium. The short - term oil price is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, with the Brent main contract operating in the range of $67.5 - 69 per barrel; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are weak; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2511 closed at 3440 points (+ 0.41%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3386 points (+ 0.39%) at night. The spot price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, rising crude oil prices and reduced rainfall increased demand, but the supply - demand pattern did not change significantly. In the Yangtze River Delta market, pre - holiday project rush increased demand, but low - price resources from some merchants affected the price. In the South China market, typhoon and rainfall affected sales, but the expected reduction in production in October supported the price [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic asphalt plant operating rate increased, the refinery inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased. The high - level oil price supported the cost, but the pre - holiday demand was weak. The short - term spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be range - bound; the asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be weak; sell out - of - the - money call options on BU2512 [4][5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2893 (+ 0.35%) at night, and LU11 closed at 3455 (+ 0.58%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils [5]. - **Related News**: The ARA fuel oil inventory decreased, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil spot windows had no or few transactions [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Russian energy facilities were attacked, but the refineries and transportation facilities recovered. The high - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand decreased. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply increased, and the demand had no specific driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: FU main contract is expected to be strongly volatile, and LU near - month contract is expected to be range - bound with crude oil; consider widening the LU01 - FU01 spread; sell out - of - the - money call options on FU01 [8]. PX & PTA - **Market Review**: PX2511 main contract closed at 6674 (+ 72/+ 1.09%) during the day and 6636 (- 38/- 0.57%) at night; TA601 main contract closed at 4678 (+ 52/+ 1.12%) during the day and 4652 (- 26/- 0.56%) at night. The PX spot price increased, and the PTA basis was stable [8]. - **Related News**: The PTA and polyester operating rates changed. The PTA production and sales increased [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PX supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The PTA supply is expected to increase slightly in October, and the demand is expected to be stable. The price is affected by macro and cost factors [9][10]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to rising oil prices and market sentiment, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [10]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 main contract closed at 4246 (+ 12/+ 0.28%) and 4224 (- 22/- 0.52%) at night. The spot basis was stable [10][11]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol production and sales changed, and the operating rate decreased [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase due to planned maintenance and new device commissioning, and the demand is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be loose, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [12]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weak and volatile; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [12]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2511 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 76/+ 1.21%) during the day and 6326 (- 46/- 0.72%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [12][13]. - **Related News**: The polyester production and sales increased, and the terminal operating rate increased [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - fiber processing fee fluctuated narrowly. The raw material price increase and terminal operating rate increase promoted inventory reduction, but the terminal cash flow was in deficit, and the processing fee was expected to remain low [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [14]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2511 main contract closed at 5840 (+ 56/+ 0.97%) and 5808 (- 32/- 0.55%) at night. The spot market had a good trading atmosphere [14]. - **Related News**: The bottle - chip factory export price increased slightly [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream terminal bid for next - year's first - quarter orders, a bottle - chip device was under maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory was expected to decrease, and the processing fee was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 main contract closed at 5922 (+ 15/+ 0.25%) during the day and 5894 (- 28/- 0.47%) at night; EB2511 main contract closed at 6958 (+ 30/+ 0.43%) during the day and 6927 (- 31/- 0.45%) at night. The pure benzene spot price increased slightly, and the styrene port inventory increased [16]. - **Related News**: The pure benzene and styrene production and sales and operating rates changed [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The pure benzene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to be stable. The styrene supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease. The price is affected by inventory and downstream demand [17][18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be strong due to geopolitical and macro factors, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; long pure benzene and short styrene in arbitrage; options are on hold [18]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 main contract closed at 6372 (+ 15/+ 0.24%) and 6371 (- 1/- 0.02%) at night. The spot price in different regions remained stable [18][19]. - **Related News**: The domestic propylene operating rate increased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propane market entered the peak season, and the demand for PDH devices was expected to increase. The propylene supply increased due to device restart, and the market was loose. The downstream product profit was poor, and the load increase was limited [19][20]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is recommended to short - sell on rebounds; arbitrage is on hold; sell put options [21]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price partially weakened, and the PP spot price in different regions was stable or slightly changed. The linear futures increased slightly [21]. - **Related News**: The PE and PP maintenance ratios decreased, and the operating rates changed. The downstream industry operating rates increased slightly [21][22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand was in the peak season, and the pre - holiday inventory was concerned. The supply was expected to increase due to reduced maintenance and new device commissioning. The near - term cost increase supported the price, and the medium - term price was recommended to be short - sold on highs [23]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term price is expected to be volatile, and medium - term price is recommended to be short - sold on highs; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [23]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was strong and volatile, and the futures price was also strong and volatile. The trading was light [23]. - **Related News**: The PVC production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, the预售 volume increased slightly, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory increased [24][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The PVC inventory was at a high level, and the supply was expected to increase due to new device commissioning. The demand was weak due to the real - estate market weakness, and the export was expected to decrease. The short - and medium - term outlook was bearish [26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is bearish in the short - and medium - term; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [26]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price in different regions remained stable [26]. - **Related News**: The caustic soda production enterprise capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory increased [28]. - **Logic Analysis**: The caustic soda market was in a state of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term was affected by inventory and price reduction, and the medium - term was expected to be long after a sufficient correction [28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: short - term is weak, and medium - term is long after a sufficient correction; arbitrage is on hold; options are on hold [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures 01 contract closed at 1315 yuan (+ 8/+ 0.6%) during the day and 1306 yuan (- 9/- 0.7%) at night. The spot price in different regions changed slightly [29][31]. - **Related News**: The soda ash production, inventory, and profit changed. The market was weak and stable [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was stable. The price was affected by inventory, downstream demand, and policy. The price was expected to be stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday [32]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stable before the holiday and weak after the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [32][34]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures 01 contract closed at 1270 yuan (+ 33/+ 2.67%) and 1264 yuan (- 6/- 0.47%) at night. The spot price in different regions increased [34][35]. - **Related News**: The glass production, inventory, and profit changed. The market trading atmosphere was good [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass production increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The price was affected by production, inventory, and demand. The price was expected to be volatile before the holiday [36]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile before the holiday; long glass and short soda ash in short - term arbitrage; options are on hold [36][37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2341 (- 16/- 0.68%). The spot price in different regions was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The methanol production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device operating rate decreased, and the import recovered. The domestic supply was loose due to the end of autumn maintenance. The port inventory increased rapidly. The price rebound was limited due to supply and inventory [39]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading: stop loss on short positions; arbitrage is on hold; sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures closed at 1674 (+ 1/+ 0.06%). The spot price was stable with small changes [40]. - **Related News**: The urea production and operating rate changed [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The urea supply was loose, and the demand was weak. The export had a certain

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various sectors including finance, commodities, and shipping, providing insights into market trends, news events, and investment suggestions for different assets [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US new home sales in August reached an annualized 800,000 units, significantly above expectations. The US and EU finalized a 15% tariff agreement, leading to a gold price correction of over 1% and a strong rise in the US dollar index [12][13] - Short - term gold prices face a correction risk due to profit - taking, and investors are advised to reduce positions before the holiday [14] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Intel is seeking investment and cooperation from Apple, and the US has officially lowered tariffs on EU cars. Fed official Daly's remarks indicate uncertainty in future interest rate cuts [15][16][17] - While there may be short - term disturbances due to valuation concerns, an overall bullish approach is recommended [18] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - South Korea's president met with the US Treasury Secretary, and the UK central bank has internal policy differences. The US has reduced tariffs on EU cars to 15%, and the US dollar is expected to trade in a short - term range [20][21] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Eight departments jointly issued a document to promote digital consumption, and Alibaba plans to invest 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure. The STAR Market has strengthened, driving the broader market up. The current market is rising on low volume, and investors are advised to take partial profits [22][23][24] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation and a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The bond market has declined due to tightened liquidity and rising stock markets. A strategy of holding a steepening curve is recommended [25][26][28] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market anticipates that the USDA's weekly export sales report will show a net increase of 60 - 160 tons in US soybean exports. China is rumored to continue purchasing Argentine soybeans, and ANEC has lowered Brazil's September soybean export forecast [29] - The bearish impact of Argentina's export tax exemption may be fully reflected in the price, and the price is expected to trade in a range. Continued attention should be paid to policy changes [29] 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indonesia's July palm oil exports decreased, and production and inventory increased. The oil market rebounded slightly, but the short - term rebound space is limited. Investors are advised to wait and see or take small long positions [30][31] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Global crude steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year. Steel prices have rebounded, but the upward space is restricted by fundamentals. A range - bound approach is recommended before the holiday, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand [32][33][35] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The corn starch production rate has increased, and inventory has decreased. The current inventory pressure is manageable, and the price difference between rice and flour may be undervalued. Buying to widen the spread may have a safety margin [36][37] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn inventory at the four northern ports has decreased. The price of the 11 - contract has rebounded, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. The 11 - contract is expected to decline more than the 01 - contract after the holiday [37][38] 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal at northern ports has remained stable. After the pre - holiday restocking, the coal price is expected to trade in a range around the long - term agreement price [39] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujubes) - Some jujubes in Xinjiang are starting to wrinkle, and there are still some green fruits. The futures price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the development of jujubes in the production area and the purchasing situation in the sales area [40][41] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - SNIM plans to increase iron ore production by 2031 and has discovered new resources. The terminal finished product inventory has some pressure, but the raw material side is strong. The iron ore price is expected to be well - supported, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory [43] 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Orient Hope is conducting maintenance on its polysilicon production line. The polysilicon price is expected to be stable in October. The short - term futures price is expected to trade in a wide range between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [44][48] 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - China's August import and export data of primary polysiloxane showed mixed trends. The price of industrial silicon is expected to trade between 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, but chasing the price up should be done with caution [49][50] 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The global copper market had a supply surplus of 101,000 tons from January to July. Grasberg copper mine's accident will lead to a significant production loss, and the copper price is expected to rise in the short term. A short - term long strategy is recommended [51][54][55] 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to 10% of Lithium Americas. The short - term price may be supported by pre - holiday restocking, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. A short - term cautious approach and a medium - term short - selling strategy are recommended [56][57] 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia has suspended 190 mining enterprises, including 39 nickel mines. The nickel price lacks upward momentum, but it has long - term investment value. A positive spread arbitrage opportunity is recommended [58][59] 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is in a deep contango. The domestic lead market is expected to trade in a bullish range. A strategy of buying on dips and a positive spread arbitrage strategy are recommended [60][61] 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market has a high cash concentration, and the domestic zinc market is under pressure from the exchange rate. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - side trading, and a positive spread arbitrage strategy is recommended [61][62] 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The spot price in East China has declined. The price is expected to trade in a low - level range in the short term [63][66][67] 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US EIA crude oil inventory decreased, and a Russian refinery was attacked. The oil price is expected to be affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [68][69][70] 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The terminal demand for PX has improved structurally, but the PX market is expected to trade in a weak range in the short term [71][73][74] 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA market has seen a partial increase in sales, but the short - term outlook is weak. The price is expected to trade in a weak range [75][76][77] 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - Urea inventory has increased. The supply pressure is rising, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the export situation and the price range of the 2601 contract [78][79] 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has declined locally. The market is expected to be stable, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [80][81][82] 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is stable. The market is expected to trade in a weak range due to poor fundamentals [83][84][85] 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC market price is oscillating in a narrow range. The fundamentals are weak, but the low price limits the downward space. Attention should be paid to domestic policy support [86] 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip factory's export price has increased slightly. The demand may be over - drawn in the short term, and attention should be paid to production cuts and new capacity [90][91] 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market price is stable. A strategy of short - selling on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances [92][93] 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass market price in Shandong is stable. The futures price has risen due to policy expectations, but the fundamental pressure may limit the upward space. A long - glass 2601 and short - soda ash 2601 arbitrage strategy is recommended [94] 3.2.27 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The China - Europe Railway Express has resumed operation. The container freight rate futures market is expected to be volatile, and a wait - and - see or short - selling strategy for the October contract is recommended [95][96]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity futures. It points out that market trends are influenced by a combination of factors, such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand balances, and geopolitical situations. Different sectors present different trends, with some in a state of shock, others showing signs of weakness or strength, and the overall market is complex and changeable. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed an overall correction on Tuesday, with the main stock indexes fluctuating downwards during the session and rebounding slightly at the end. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures had mixed performances. The banking and precious metals sectors among the cyclical sectors were strong, while technology stocks corrected. It is recommended to lightly sell put options on MO2511 near the strike price of 6600 when the index corrects to collect premiums [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of funds, and the bond market sentiment was weak. It is recommended to operate within a range, lightly test long positions when the market sentiment stabilizes at low levels, and appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy for the TL contract [5][8]. Precious Metals - The US dollar index remained weak, and safe - haven sentiment drove funds to flow into gold, pushing up its price. The price of international gold reached a high and then narrowed its gains, while silver showed a slight decline. It is recommended to buy gold on dips or buy out - of - the - money call options, and sell out - of - the - money put options on silver when the price is above $41 [9][12][13]. Container Shipping Index (European Route) - The EC futures market oscillated. The spot freight rates showed a certain range of fluctuations, and the market had digested the impact of the previous spot decline. It is recommended to wait and see in a volatile market [14][15]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market oscillated. The spot price declined, and the downstream was less willing to buy at high prices. The supply side was affected by factors such as smelter maintenance, and the demand side improved after the price decline. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan [15][17][20]. - **Alumina**: The alumina market was in a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The futures price was in a bottom - wide oscillation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 2850 - 3150 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy changes in Guinea and cost - profit changes [20][22][23]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price declined, and the market trading activity increased slightly. The supply was at a high level, the demand entered the peak season, and the inventory was still in a state of accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to pay attention to the double - festival stocking and inventory inflection points [23][25]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The pre - holiday stocking demand provided phased support for the spot price. The supply was tight, the demand was gradually recovering, and the inventory was accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the supply of scrap aluminum and import policies [25][27][28]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market was in a state of supply - demand differentiation at home and abroad. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was in the peak season. The short - term price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan [28][30][31]. - **Tin**: The import of tin ore in August remained at a low level, and the supply was tight. The demand was in a state of "weak supply and demand". It is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the price range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market oscillated weakly. The supply was at a high level, the demand was relatively stable in some areas and general in others. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 119,000 - 124,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations and ore - related news [34][35][36]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly. The raw material prices were firm, the supply was under pressure, and the demand had not significantly increased. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,800 - 13,200 yuan, and attention should be paid to steel - mill dynamics and pre - holiday stocking [37][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium - carbonate market oscillated. The supply and demand were in a tight balance during the peak season. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in orders [41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was affected by factors such as export support and seasonal demand changes. The price was expected to oscillate at a high level, with the thread referring to the range of 3100 - 3350 yuan and the hot - rolled coil referring to the range of 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to lightly try long positions and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [44][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore market was supported by factors such as reduced shipments and increased iron - water production. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 780 - 850 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [47][48]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking - coal market was in a state of supply - demand balance and tightening. The price was expected to oscillate upwards, with the range of 1150 - 1300 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [49][51]. - **Coke**: The coke market was in a process of price adjustment. The price was expected to rebound gradually, with the range of 1650 - 1800 yuan. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [52][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives put pressure on the two - meal market. The domestic meal supply was abundant, and the market was expected to oscillate weakly [56][59]. - **Pigs**: The pig market had a large slaughter pressure, and the spot price was difficult to improve before the National Day. The market was expected to adjust weakly, and the previous reverse - spread strategy was recommended to be withdrawn and observed [60][61].

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and shifted to a volatile state. The technology sector still dominates the market. With the holiday approaching, capital activity has declined [2]. - Without incremental negative factors, 1.8% may be the high point for the 10 - year Treasury yield, but in the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the yield is also limited, with resistance around 1.75% [2]. - Gold remains in a high - level volatile state, and its volatility may rise again. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly [2]. - The EC futures contract continues to decline, and the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel exports support the valuation of the black commodity sector, and the spread between hot - rolled and rebar contracts is narrowing [2]. - The decline in iron ore shipments, the rebound in molten iron production, and the restocking demand support the strong price of iron ore [2]. - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream restocking demand supports the upward trend of coal futures [2]. - The copper market is in a volatile consolidation phase, and the spot trading volume is good below 80,000 [2]. - There are more supply - side disturbances in Guinea for aluminum, and it is expected to fluctuate widely around the bottom of 2900 in the short term [2]. - The supply of tin ore imports remained low in August, providing fundamental support [2]. - Concerns about marginal increases in oil supply have led to a downward shift in short - term oil prices, but geopolitical factors still provide some support [2]. - The high supply pressure of urea persists, and the progress of urea factory orders before the National Day needs attention [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for PX has further weakened, and the cost side is also weak, putting short - term pressure on prices [2]. - The supply - demand situation of PTA has improved slightly but remains weak in the medium term, with limited driving forces [2]. - The short - fiber market has no obvious short - term drivers and follows the raw material price fluctuations [2]. - The demand for bottle - grade polyester chips has improved temporarily, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upside for processing fees [2]. - The new ethylene glycol plant commissioning expectation and the weak terminal market put pressure on the upside of MEG [2]. - With the holiday approaching, the mid - stream of caustic soda is in a wait - and - see mode, and the spot price is under pressure [2]. - The spot procurement enthusiasm for PVC is average, and the market is in a volatile state [2]. - The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene has weakened, and the price driving force is limited [2]. - The weak oil price expectation puts pressure on the absolute price of styrene [2]. - The cost and supply - demand drivers for synthetic rubber are limited, and it may follow the trends of natural rubber and other commodities [2]. - The sentiment in the LLDPE spot market has weakened, and the basis remains stable [2]. - The number of PP plant overhauls has increased, and the trading volume is average [2]. - The port inventory of methanol has been accumulating, and the price is weak [2]. - After Argentina取消 the export tax, the two -粕 market is under pressure again [2]. - The pig slaughter pressure is high, and the spot price is unlikely to improve before the National Day [2]. - Under the bearish expectation, the corn futures price continues to decline [2]. - The Sino - US talks did not release incremental positive factors, and the oilseed market is in a volatile adjustment phase [2]. - The overseas sugar supply outlook is broad [2]. - With new cotton gradually coming onto the market, the supply pressure is increasing [2]. - The local domestic sales in the egg market still provide some support for demand, but the long - term trend is bearish [2]. - The early Fuji apples are traded at negotiated prices, and the sales volume is acceptable [2]. - The spot price of red dates fluctuates slightly, and the futures market is in a volatile state [2]. - The overall sentiment in the soda ash market has declined, and the price is trending weakly [2]. - The production and sales of glass have weakened, and the futures price has declined [2]. - Affected by typhoon weather, the rubber price is strongly volatile in the short term [2]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon has weakened, and the price has declined [2]. - Affected by fundamental sentiment, the polysilicon price has dropped significantly [2]. - With no new news, the market sentiment for lithium carbonate is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance during the peak season [2]. Summaries by Categories Equity Index Futures - Recommend selling short - term put options on the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and MO2511 contracts near the strike price of 6600 when the index pulls back to collect option premiums [2]. Treasury Futures - The T2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 107.5 and 108.35. For single - side strategies, investors are advised to trade within the range, and consider going long lightly when the price pulls back to the low level if the market sentiment stabilizes, but should pay attention to taking profits in time. For the spot - futures strategy, the basis of the TL contract is oscillating at a high level, and investors can appropriately participate in the basis narrowing strategy [2]. Precious Metals - For gold, consider buying at low levels or buying out - of - the - money call options instead of going long. For silver, sell out - of - the - money put options when the price is high [2]. Freight Index Futures (EC) - Consider the spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. Black Commodities - For steel, try to go long on pullbacks and narrow the spread between the January hot - rolled and rebar contracts. For iron ore, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 780 - 850, and consider a long - iron - ore short - hot - rolled strategy. For coking coal, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy. For coke, go long on the 2601 contract at low levels, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800, and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke strategy [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, the main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000. For aluminum, the main contract reference range is 20,600 - 21,000. For aluminum alloy, the main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600. For zinc, the main contract reference range is 21,500 - 22,500 [2][3]. Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, temporarily observe on the single - side, with the support range of WTI at [60, 61], Brent at [63, 64], and SC at [467, 474]. For urea, wait for the implied volatility to rise and then narrow it. For PX, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend and pay attention to the support around 6500. For PTA, short on rebounds following the crude oil trend, pay attention to the support around 4500, and consider a rolling reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For short - fiber, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100. For bottle - grade polyester chips, the single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500. For ethylene glycol, sell call options on rallies and consider a reverse spread strategy between the January and May contracts. For caustic soda, adopt a short - selling strategy. For PVC, observe. For pure benzene, it will follow the benzene - ethylene and oil price fluctuations in the short term. For benzene - ethylene, short on absolute price rebounds and widen the spread between the November benzene - ethylene and November pure - benzene contracts. For synthetic rubber, pay attention to the support around 11,400. For LLDPE, observe near the previous low. For PP, observe in the short term. For methanol, observe as the downward space is currently limited [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseed meal, adjust weakly in the short term. For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities between the January - May and March - July contracts. For corn, it is in a weak trend. For oils, the main palm oil contract adjusts weakly in the short term. For sugar, hold short positions. For cotton, adopt a short - selling strategy in the short term. For eggs, control the short - position size. For apples, the main contract runs around 8300. For red dates, it is bearish in the medium - to - long term. For soda ash, observe. For glass, observe. For rubber, observe. For industrial silicon, the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, observe temporarily. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to run between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic growth is slowing down, with drags from the real estate sector, weakening consumption support, and declining investment growth. However, policy - side counter - cyclical adjustments have been implemented, and the stock market remains strong while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed has started a "preventive降息周期" [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the upward risk of the US dollar may be higher than the downward risk. The exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10 in the short - term, and policy signals from the RMB central parity rate should be focused on [4]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short - term due to the multi - empty game and the approaching holidays [6]. - Treasury bonds should focus on central bank dynamics. There may be opportunities for long - side intervention on dips [7]. - Precious metals are expected to run strongly as the Fed's monetary policy is in a loose cycle, and gold price will continue to rise [10]. - Copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply in the short - term and stable demand [15]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, alumina may run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly [17]. - Zinc is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern and is recommended to be under - weighted [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are mainly affected by the macro - level, and the fundamentals provide no clear guidance [21]. - Tin prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton, with short - term supply remaining tight [23]. - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to oscillate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the National Day holiday [25]. - Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. - Lead prices are expected to be cautiously bullish as the supply - demand contradiction lies in raw materials [29]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate before the holiday, with limited upward and downward space [30]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with support from replenishment and high molten iron production but limited upward space due to demand and high shipments [34]. - Coking coal and coke prices are supported by pre - holiday replenishment, but the rebound height is restricted by high steel inventory [35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are supported by cost and term structure improvement, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. - Crude oil is under fundamental pressure, and the medium - term trend is bearish, although geopolitical risks may cause short - term rebounds [40]. - LPG is expected to oscillate weakly as the overall driving force weakens [44]. - PTA - PX needs macro - level drivers to break through, and the polyester peak season is not highly expected [48]. - MEG is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan, and short - term downward space is limited [51]. - Methanol is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. - PP's downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to device changes and opportunities for long - positions on dips [57]. - PE is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern as the real - world situation is weak but the valuation is low [60]. - PVC is recommended to be observed temporarily due to the coexistence of weak fundamentals and macro - level expectations [62]. - Pure benzene is facing increasing surplus pressure, and its price is expected to be weakly volatile. Styrene is expected to oscillate, and the spread between pure benzene and styrene can be considered to be widened [64][66]. - Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. - Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Market Information**: There were various events such as the China - US presidential phone call, policy announcements in China (e.g., Shanghai's property tax adjustment), and overseas events like the Fed's interest - rate decision, Japan's central bank actions, and geopolitical events [1]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - economy shows a complex situation with slowing growth and policy counter - cyclical adjustments. The stock and commodity markets are affected differently, and overseas, the Fed's policy path depends on employment and inflation [2]. 3.2 RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined on Friday, with the central parity rate also being adjusted downwards [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policy. The US dollar index may mainly trade based on the current situation, and the RMB exchange rate may oscillate around 7.10, with policy signals from the central parity rate being crucial [4]. 3.3 Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index was volatile with reduced trading volume last Friday, and the trading enthusiasm declined but sentiment improved [6]. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a multi - empty game. With the approaching holidays, the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [6]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bonds rebounded last week but dropped significantly on Friday, and the money market was tight due to tax payments [7]. - **Core Logic**: The economic data in August showed downward pressure, but the market paid little attention. The bond market was less affected by the stock market. The market lacks a clear right - side signal, and attention should be paid to central bank dynamics [7]. 3.5 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Performance**: London spot gold and silver continued to rise last week, with short - term adjustments after the Fed's interest - rate cut but strong rebounds on Friday [10]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed is in a monetary policy easing cycle, and gold prices will continue to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's policy expectations and relevant economic data [10]. 3.6 Copper - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper declined during the week, and inventories changed differently in different markets [13]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in copper prices was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the future, copper prices may oscillate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to tight supply and stable demand [15]. 3.7 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Performance**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends, and relevant trading volumes and positions also changed [16]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, after the interest - rate cut, the focus may shift to fundamentals, and prices may oscillate strongly. Alumina is in a state of supply surplus and may have a weak price trend. Cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and may oscillate strongly [17]. 3.8 Zinc - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated slightly, and trading volume and positions changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: The zinc market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut and supply - demand fundamentals. Supply is in surplus, and demand is average. It is recommended to maintain an under - weighted position [20]. 3.9 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Performance**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel declined, and relevant spot prices and inventories also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: They are mainly affected by the macro - level, with limited fundamental adjustments. The future trend needs further observation [21]. 3.10 Tin - **Market Performance**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin declined slightly during the week, and inventories increased [22]. - **Core Logic**: The decline was due to the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's speech. In the short - term, supply is tight, and prices may oscillate around 274,000 yuan per ton [23]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The weighted index contract of carbonate lithium rose last week, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [24]. - **Core Logic**: The lithium - battery industry chain performed well last week. With the expected increase in downstream demand, carbonate lithium prices may oscillate before the National Day [24][25]. 3.12 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The weighted futures contracts of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends, with changes in trading volume, positions, and warehouse receipts [26]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly during the dry season but are restricted by inventory. Polysilicon trading is complex, and high volatility requires cautious participation [28]. 3.13 Lead - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated at a high level, and trading volume and positions changed [29]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut has little impact on lead prices. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, and prices may rise cautiously [29]. 3.14 Black Metals 3.14.1 Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: Steel prices were strong, and there were price adjustments in billets [30]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of steel decreased, and demand improved slightly, but inventory was still at a high level. Before the holiday, steel prices are expected to oscillate with limited space [30]. 3.14.2 Iron Ore - **Core Logic**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market may return to fundamental trading. Supply is abundant, demand is strong, and inventory is transferring from ports to steel mills. Prices are expected to oscillate [32][33]. 3.14.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: There were relevant geopolitical and policy - related events. - **Core Logic**: Downstream pre - holiday replenishment has started, and the market's sentiment is improving. However, high steel inventory restricts the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. 3.14.4 Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Market Performance**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese rose, and positions decreased [37]. - **Core Logic**: They are supported by cost and term - structure improvement. The long - term logic is related to the anti - involution expectation, and trial long - positions are recommended [38]. 3.15 Energy and Chemicals 3.15.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices weakened, with declines in both WTI and Brent crude [40]. - **Core Logic**: The core contradiction is between fundamental pressure and geopolitical support. Fundamentals are bearish in the medium - term, while geopolitical events may cause short - term rebounds [40]. 3.15.2 LPG - **Market Performance**: LPG prices declined, and relevant spot prices also changed [42]. - **Core Logic**: The overall driving force is weakening, with supply increasing slightly and demand changing little [44]. 3.15.3 PTA - PX - **Market Performance**: The prices of PX and PTA were affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [45]. - **Core Logic**: The polyester peak season is not highly expected, and macro - level drivers are needed for a breakthrough [48]. 3.15.4 MEG - Bottle Chip - **Market Performance**: The inventory of MEG increased, and the prices were affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [49]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is under pressure from inventory expectations but has limited downward space. It is expected to oscillate between 4200 - 4400 yuan [51]. 3.15.5 Methanol - **Market Performance**: The price of methanol changed, and the inventory situation was different in different regions [53]. - **Core Logic**: The main contradiction lies in the port, and it is recommended to reduce long - positions and hold short - put options [54]. 3.15.6 PP - **Market Performance**: The price of PP declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: The downstream demand recovery is less than expected, but the profit compression may trigger device shutdowns and a potential rebound [57]. 3.15.7 PE - **Market Performance**: The price of PE declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - **Core Logic**: The real - world situation is weak, but the low valuation limits the downward space, and an oscillatory pattern is expected [60]. 3.15.8 PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC prices were at a low level, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [61]. - **Core Logic**: The industry has weak fundamentals, but macro - level expectations make short - selling less attractive. It is recommended to observe temporarily [62]. 3.15.9 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Performance**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined, and their inventory situations changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene faces increasing surplus pressure, and styrene may oscillate. The spread between them can be considered to be widened [64][66]. 3.15.10 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed, and their supply, demand, and inventory situations were different [67][68]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil's cracking is stabilizing, and short - term short - selling is not recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and the short - term situation remains weak [67][69]. 3.15.11 Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The price of asphalt declined, and its supply, demand, and inventory changed [70]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to oscillate weakly, with the possibility of a last - chance rise in the futures market during the demand peak season [71]. 3.15.12 Urea - **Market Performance**: The price of urea declined, and its inventory situation changed [72]. - **Core Logic**: Urea is expected to oscillate between 1650 - 1850 yuan in the 01 contract, with support and suppression coexisting [73].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips for stock indices; hold a wait-and-see attitude for treasury bonds [1][5] - Black building materials: Range trading for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous metals: Wait-and-see or hold long positions on dips for copper, with short-term trading; recommend buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend waiting or shorting on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][16][17] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, urea, and methanol are expected to trade in a range; rubber is expected to trade with a bullish bias; polyolefins are expected to trade in a wide range; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][23][31][33] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to trade in a range; apples are expected to trade with a bullish bias; jujubes are expected to trade with a bearish bias [1][37][39] - Agricultural and livestock products: Recommend shorting on rallies for hogs and eggs; corn is expected to trade in a range; soybean meal is expected to trade in a range; oils are expected to trade with a bullish bias [1][41][43][47] Core Views - The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals [5] - The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally [5] - The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season [9] - The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand [10] - The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [12] - The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand [16] - The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [16] - The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17][18] - The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [20] - The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply [23] - The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory [25] - The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [27] - The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [31] - The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [33] - The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [36] - The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [37] - The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [38] - The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [39] - The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [40] - The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [41] - The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [42] - The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand [43] - The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [46] - The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply [47] Summary by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: The A-share market is in a structural bull market, with the logic of the liquidity bull market remaining unchanged. The market has formed a "bull market mindset," and one should not easily use the experience and rules of a sideways or bear market as signals. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [5] - Treasury bonds: The bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and any rebound should be treated as a short-term rally. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [5] Black building materials - Coking coal: The coking coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand [7] - Rebar: The rebar market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [7] - Glass: The glass market is expected to strengthen in the short term, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the arrival of the peak season. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [9] Non-ferrous metals - Copper: The copper market is expected to remain strong in the short term, supported by the weakening US dollar and the expected improvement in domestic demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [10] - Aluminum: The aluminum market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [12] - Nickel: The nickel market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend in the medium to long term, due to the expected increase in supply and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [16] - Tin: The tin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [16] - Silver and gold: The silver and gold markets are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [17][18] Energy and chemicals - PVC: The PVC market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [20] - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected increase in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [23] - Styrene: The styrene market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the weakening demand and the high inventory. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [25] - Rubber: The rubber market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected reduction in supply and the improvement in demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [27] - Urea: The urea market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [28] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [31] - Polyolefins: The polyolefin market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [33] - Soda ash: The soda ash market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [36] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The cotton and cotton yarn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [37] - PTA: The PTA market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [38] - Apples: The apple market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [39] - Jujubes: The jujube market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [40] Agricultural and livestock products - Hogs: The hog market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with a downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [41] - Eggs: The egg market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [42] - Corn: The corn market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight downward trend, due to the high inventory and the weakening demand. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight downward trend [43] - Soybean meal: The soybean meal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [46] - Oils: The oil market is expected to remain strong in the short term, with a slight upward trend, supported by the expected improvement in demand and the reduction in supply. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a slight upward trend [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report notes that most commodity futures rose, and small - and mid - cap stock index futures had good gains. In the overseas market, the US labor market shows a clear slowdown trend, and the weak non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut. In the domestic market, the PPI is expected to see a slight increase in the central value, while the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level. Short - term domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the situation is generally favorable for gold. Long - term US fundamentals are fair, and a weak US dollar pattern continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4562, up 2.92% daily, 2.37% weekly, 1.24% monthly, 17.40% quarterly, and 16.35% year - to - date. The SSE 50 futures closed at 2990.2, up 1.78% daily, 1.68% weekly, 0.34% monthly, 11.20% quarterly, and 11.66% year - to - date. The CSI 500 futures closed at 7124.6, up 3.81% daily, 3.28% weekly, 1.83% monthly, 21.52% quarterly, and 25.11% year - to - date. The CSI 1000 futures closed at 7387.8, up 3.31% daily, 2.24% weekly, 0.29% monthly, 20.15% quarterly, and 26.32% year - to - date [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 102.41, up 0.06% daily, 0.02% weekly, - 0.01% monthly, - 0.22% quarterly, and - 0.55% year - to - date. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 105.59, up 0.16% daily, 0.00% weekly, 0.07% monthly, - 0.63% quarterly, and - 0.89% year - to - date. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 107.58, up 0.08% daily, - 0.34% weekly, - 0.21% monthly, - 1.24% quarterly, and - 1.23% year - to - date. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures closed at 114.74, down 0.02% daily, - 1.38% weekly, - 1.55% monthly, - 4.61% quarterly, and - 3.44% year - to - date [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.8433, unchanged daily, up 0.11% weekly, unchanged monthly, up 1.11% quarterly, and down 9.81% year - to - date. The euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1695, with 0 pips change daily, - 24 pips weekly, 9 pips monthly, - 93 pips quarterly, and 1342 pips year - to - date. The US dollar - yen exchange rate was 147.46, with 0 pips change daily, up 0.03% weekly, up 0.28% monthly, up 2.40% quarterly, and down 6.20% year - to - date [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $63.75, up 1.56% daily, 2.87% weekly, - 0.41% monthly, - 1.88% quarterly, and - 11.30% year - to - date. ICE Brent crude oil was at $67.6, up 1.61% daily, 2.94% weekly, 0.21% monthly, 1.46% quarterly, and - 9.66% year - to - date. COMEX gold was at $3680.4, up 0.45% daily, 1.12% weekly, 4.67% monthly, 11.02% quarterly, and 39.45% year - to - date [3]. 3.2 Macro Situation - **Overseas Macro**: The US released August non - farm data, with only 22,000 new jobs, lower than the previous value and expectations. The labor market's downward risk has increased, and wage growth has slowed. The number of initial and continued unemployment claims shows that the labor market slowdown is becoming more obvious [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: In August, the PPI rebounded from - 3.6% to - 2.9% year - on - year, while the CPI dropped from 0% to - 0.4% year - on - year. The tail - wagging effect had a large impact, and food prices dragged down the CPI. The PPI's month - on - month rebound to 0 and the core CPI's rise to 0.9% indicate that domestic policies are starting to take effect. The PPI central value is expected to rise slightly, and the CPI may be slightly lower than the first - half level [6]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Short - term**: Domestic assets mainly present structural opportunities. The market sentiment has cooled down after important domestic events this week. In the overseas market, the weak US non - farm data increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. - **Long - term**: The US fundamentals are fair, and interest rate cuts are expected to boost the fundamentals. The weak US dollar pattern continues, and investors should be vigilant about volatility spikes and focus on non - US dollar assets [6]. 3.4 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures should adopt a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences; stock index options should continue the hedging and defensive strategy; the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term for Treasury bond futures. All are expected to be in a volatile state [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner, as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and the risk of the Fed's loss of independence expands [7]. - **Shipping Sector**: For the container shipping to Europe route, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Steel and iron ore are expected to be volatile, with the impact of production restrictions on steel weakening and iron ore showing an unexpected decline in molten iron production and a slight increase in port inventories [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Despite the "anti - involution" impact, the prices of varieties in this sector are still supported during the peak season. However, most varieties are expected to be in a volatile state, such as coke starting the first - round price cut after the end of military parade - related production restrictions, and the supply of coking coal significantly decreasing [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Affected by the better - than - expected July China's import and export data, non - ferrous metals were initially boosted. However, most varieties are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as copper due to the rising risk of overseas recession [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and coking coal's decline has dragged down the chemical industry. Most varieties in this sector are expected to be volatile, with some facing downward pressure, such as PP due to the increasing pressure of new production capacity [9]. - **Agricultural Sector**: The agricultural market is in a narrow - range volatile state, waiting for the results of field inspections. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, such as livestock products facing a supply - demand imbalance and rubber facing pressure from previous highs [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In September, the direction of the second - half monetary policy is crucial for the equity market. After A - shares have accumulated significant gains, they may enter a high - level shock pattern, and the risk has been largely released [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate has strong gaming power around 1.8%, and an incremental driver is needed to choose a direction. The long - end of Treasury bonds is weak while the short - end is strong [2]. - The U.S. employment market continues to weaken, the ECB keeps policy unchanged, and gold shows a sideways consolidation [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) main contract is weakly volatile [2]. - Steel prices are suppressed by factors such as declining apparent demand and coking coal复产 [2]. - The U.S. core CPI meets expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again [2]. - There is a high supply pressure in the short - term for some energy and chemical products, and the market needs to pay attention to industrial demand rhythm [2]. - For agricultural products, there are different supply - demand situations, such as the abundant supply expectation for sugar and the low inventory of old - crop cotton [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has a volume - increasing rise with the resonance of technology and finance. It is recommended to sell near - month put options at the support level to collect premiums [2]. - **Treasury Bond**: Uncertain about the direction, investors are advised to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the capital market, equity market, and fundamentals [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold should be bought cautiously at low prices or sell out - of - the - money gold options. Silver should be traded in the range of 40 - 42 dollars and sell out - of - the money options at high volatility [2]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Consider the 12 - 10 spread arbitrage as the main contract is weakly volatile [2]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to wait and see due to factors suppressing steel prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Buy the iron ore 2601 contract at low prices in the range of 780 - 830 and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Short the coking coal 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1070 - 1170 [2]. - **Coke**: Short the coke 2601 contract at high prices in the range of 1550 - 1650 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Adopt a short - side thinking, with support levels for WTI at [61, 62], Brent at [64, 65], and SC at [465, 475] [2]. - **Urea**: Wait and see as the short - term high - supply pressure drags down the market [2]. - **PX**: Treat the short - term oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 [2]. - **PTA**: Oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800 in the short - term and conduct TA1 - 5 rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: Follow the raw materials, with the processing fee oscillating in the range of 800 - 1100 [2]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand may both decline in September, and the processing fee fluctuates in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Look for EG1 - 5 reverse arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: Hold short positions [2]. - **Pure Benzene**: Follow styrene and oil prices in the short - term [2]. - **Styrene**: Do low - buying operations on EB10 and expand the EB11 - BZ11 spread at a low level [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price fluctuates in the range of 11400 - 12500 [2]. - **LLDPE**: Oscillate in the short - term [2]. - **PP**: Stop profit on short positions at 6950 - 7000 [2]. - **Methanol**: Conduct range operations in the range of 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural - **Soybean Meal**: Operate in the range of 3050 - 3150 for the 01 contract [2]. - **Hog**: The market has limited supply - demand contradictions, and pay attention to the subsequent slaughter rhythm [2]. - **Corn**: Short at high prices [2]. - **Oil**: The short - term P main contract may test the 9000 support [2]. - **Sugar**: Pay attention to the support at around 5500 [2]. - **Cotton**: Wait and see on a single - side basis [2]. - **Egg**: Control the position of previous short positions as the market rebounds [2]. - **Apple**: The main contract runs around 8100 [2]. - **Jujube**: The main contract fluctuates around 11000 [2]. Special Commodities - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds [2]. - **Glass**: Wait and see and pay attention to the spot market sentiment during the peak season [2]. - **Rubber**: Wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price may fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and pay attention to the silicon industry conference [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Wait and see as the production cut expectation rises and the price increases [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Wait and see mainly, with the main contract running around 7 - 7.2 million [2].