Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the precious metals market from Ruida Futures Research Institute, covering the period up to March 27, 2026 [2] - The report analyzes the precious metals market from aspects including market trends, supply - demand, and macro - data [6] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market showed a volatile pattern of initial stabilization and then decline. The pricing logic is a repeated game between "geopolitical hedging, re - inflation expectations, and high - interest - rate constraints" [8] - In the short - term, the precious metals market will continue to play out based on the development of the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential economic stagflation risks. Inflation expectations, central bank policies, oil prices, and the US dollar are current major risk factors. In the long - term, gold's attractiveness as a macro - hedging asset remains [8] - The strategy suggests short - term caution and long - term buying on dips [8] Group 4: Weekly Summary Market Trends - This week, the precious metals market first stabilized and then declined. Geopolitical factors and macro - economic data affected the market. The US - Iran situation caused fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar, and macro - data showed a slowdown in economic sentiment and strong core inflation [8] Future Outlook - The precious metals market will continue to be affected by the US - Iran situation, inflation expectations, and potential stagflation risks. If the US economy slows and inflation rises, precious metals may benefit. Otherwise, their rebound space will be limited [8] Group 5: Futures and Spot Market Price Changes - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract 2606 was at 17,489 yuan/kg, down 0.77% for the week; the Shanghai gold main contract 2606 was at 998.66 yuan/g, down 3.90% for the week [13] ETF Holdings - As of March 26, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF net position decreased by 0.89% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF net position increased by 1.50% month - on - month [18] - As of February 2026, European gold ETF investment demand declined, while North American and Asian demand remained strong [19] Net Long Positions - As of March 17, 2026, COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased, with gold down 2.0% and silver down 10.79% [28] Basis and Spread - As of March 26, 2026, the basis of Shanghai gold and silver main contracts weakened week - on - week; the internal - external spread of gold and silver narrowed week - on - week [31][34] Inventory Changes - As of March 19, 2026, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while SHFE gold and silver inventories increased [37] Gold - Silver Ratio - As of March 19, 2026, the gold - silver ratio (London gold/silver price) was 64.36, down 1.80% ( - 2.72%) from the previous week [41] Group 6: Industry Supply - Demand Silver Industry - As of February 2026, silver ore and concentrate imports decreased month - on - month, while silver imports increased month - on - month [45] - Due to the growth of silver demand in semiconductors, integrated circuit production continued to rise, with a stable year - on - year growth rate [47] Gold Supply - Demand - In 2025, global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand reaching 2175 tons. Gold ETF net positions increased by 801 tons [53] Silver Supply - Demand - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply - demand was due to increased mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver. Investment and industrial demand declined slightly, and the market shortage narrowed significantly [55] Group 7: Macro and Options Macro Data - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued to strengthen. As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, up 0.70% week - on - week; the 10Y US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, up 0.16% week - on - week [62] - The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility rebounded significantly, and the S&P 500/London gold price ratio rebounded [64] Central Bank Gold Buying - Since the beginning of the year, the pace of global central bank gold buying has cooled, but in the long - term, gold as a macro - hedging asset remains attractive. As of the end of February 2026, China's gold reserves reached 74.22 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the end of January [69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and rebounded slightly. Domestically, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand persists, and the inflation level remains low. To stabilize economic growth and promote a reasonable recovery of prices, the future monetary and credit environment will be relatively loose, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Geopolitically, the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is rising, and the global economic stagflation risk is increasing, which restrains the global central banks' monetary easing policies, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On March 18, the central bank conducted 20.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 20.5 billion yuan, and the winning bid volume was 20.5 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 26.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, the stock index trends were divergent. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices declined significantly, while the SSE 50 index oscillated and closed higher. Currently, there is a co - existence of strong support from continuous policy - side benefits and negative pressure from the long - term risk of the Middle East geopolitical crisis. As a result, the stock index has entered a range - bound consolidation phase. In the short term, the stock index will mainly move in a range [3]. - For options, since the stock index will mainly move in a range in the short term and has currently retraced to near the lower edge of the previous oscillation range, a bullish spread or covered call enhancement strategy can be adopted [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF Options - Figures presented include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [5][6] 2. Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures presented include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [7][8][9] 3. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF Options - Figures presented include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 300ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [17][18][19] 4. CSI 300 Index Options - Figures presented include the CSI 300 index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [29][30][31] 5. CSI 1000 Index Options - Figures presented include the CSI 1000 index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [37][38][39] 6. Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures presented include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [47][48][49] 7. Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF Options - Figures presented include the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 500ETF trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [59][60][61] 8. Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index Options - Figures presented include the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index trend, historical volatility, option position PCR, at - the - money implied volatility, implied volatility curve, and at - the - money implied volatility cone [70][71][72]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced widespread gains on February 24, with the main contract for silver rising over 12% and lithium carbonate increasing by over 10% [1][2] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1704.50 points, up 56.21 points or 3.41% from the previous trading day [1] - The overall commodity index rose to 2349.89 points, an increase of 77.35 points or 3.40% [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals, particularly silver, showed strong performance post-Spring Festival, with silver surging by 12.84% and lithium carbonate recovering above 160,000 yuan per ton [2] - The rise in precious metals is attributed to increased safe-haven buying due to U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] - Concerns about U.S. economic stagnation were heightened by a return of the core PCE year-on-year rate to 3% and a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.4% in Q4 [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate - The strong rise in lithium carbonate prices is supported by expectations of a tight supply-demand balance, despite concerns over a decline in downstream production [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate production is also expected to decrease, which offsets the negative impact of lower downstream production [3] - The overall sentiment remains bullish for lithium prices, although there are warnings about potential weakening fundamentals in Q2 [3] Group 4: Energy and Chemical Products - The energy and chemical sectors were active, driven by rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which pushed international oil prices to a six-month high [3] - SC crude oil rose by over 6%, while high-sulfur fuel oil increased by over 2% and 5% respectively [3] - The rubber sector also saw collective gains, with 20 rubber, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber all rising around 4% [3] Group 5: Declining Commodities - The main contract for polysilicon fell over 4%, primarily due to high inventory levels and price pressures from declining silicon wafer prices [4] - The supply of caustic soda also increased, leading to a decline of 3.37% in its main contract, as supply remained ample and demand was weak [5] - The operational rates for alumina production decreased, contributing to a lack of demand in the caustic soda market [5]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally [1] - The immediate market reaction included a decline in two-year Treasury yields by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a record closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [1] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [1] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a conflicting sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term stock market growth [1]

Group 1 - The UK central bank, the Bank of England, has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4%, marking the fifth rate cut within a year [4][3] - The decision to lower the interest rate was described as a well-considered move, with future cuts expected to be gradual and cautious [4] - The UK economy is facing ongoing low growth and domestic as well as geopolitical risks, with inflation expected to peak at 4% in September before gradually returning to the target level of 2% [4] Group 2 - President Trump has nominated Stephen Moore to fill a recently vacated position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a term lasting until January 31, 2026 [6][7] - Moore previously served as a senior economic advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a PhD in economics from Harvard [7] - The vacancy was created by the resignation of Governor Quarles, allowing Trump to make a new appointment to the Federal Reserve Board ahead of schedule [7] Group 3 - Gold prices have rebounded and are experiencing high volatility, with New York gold reaching $3,470.3 per ounce and London gold exceeding $3,390 per ounce [9] - The rebound in gold prices is attributed to disappointing U.S. employment data, which has increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [9][10] - Analysts suggest that the recent economic data and personnel changes at the Federal Reserve have raised the probability of a rate cut to 90%, which supports gold prices [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty [1][7]. Inflation - Despite a noticeable easing since 2022, as of March 2025, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index year-on-year increase is still at 2.6%, with overall inflation at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]. - Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the prices of goods and services, with companies planning to pass on cost increases to consumers, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. - The Fed staff analysis indicates that inflation may be more persistent than previously expected, with projections suggesting inflation rates will remain above target until 2027 [2]. Labor Market - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2% as of April, close to the average level for the second half of 2024 [3]. - However, increasing trade policy uncertainty has led some companies, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, to limit or pause hiring plans [3]. - While the current labor market is strong, there are concerns about potential signs of weakness in the coming months due to slowing economic activity and declining export demand [3]. Economic Growth - The first quarter saw a slight decline in actual GDP, attributed to fluctuations in net exports, with a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and weak export growth [4]. - The Fed staff predicts that newly announced trade policies will have a more severe impact on economic activity than previously anticipated, potentially dragging down the potential growth rate in the coming years [4]. Financial Markets - Recent financial market volatility has been notable, with long-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating against most major currencies, attributed to concerns over the adverse effects of trade policies on the U.S. economy [5]. - Although the overall functioning of financial markets remains orderly, liquidity indicators in the Treasury market have deteriorated, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding policy direction [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The committee members agree that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the robust economic activity and labor market, while emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on new economic information [6][7]. - The Fed is committed to gradually normalizing its balance sheet by reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7]. Future Outlook - The FOMC signals a clear stance that, despite downward pressure on economic growth, the Fed will not easily shift to a loose monetary policy until inflation clearly returns to target levels [9]. - The Fed is closely monitoring global trade policy developments and their potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, remaining vigilant and ready to respond flexibly to changes in economic data and risks [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current U.S. job market is relatively robust, with the April non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, stable unemployment rate, and a decline in the U6 unemployment rate. The impact of tariff policies is not yet significant, reducing the Fed's urgency to cut interest rates. However, there are still risks of a downturn in employment data in the future [6][18]. - After the release of the April non - farm employment report, the Fed is likely to stay on hold in May, and the market has postponed the pricing of the first full - scale interest rate cut within the year from June to July. The possibility of a rate cut in June depends on the decline in economic and employment data. The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy remains high [6][18][19]. - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in April's non - farm employment indicates that the U.S. job market is not strong. Tariff policies may gradually have a negative impact on the job market, and there is a risk of a decline in employment data in the second quarter [6][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 U.S. April Non - farm Payrolls Higher than Expected, Unemployment Rate Unchanged, Wage Growth Slowed - The U.S. added 177,000 non - farm jobs in April, lower than March but higher than the expected 138,000. The combined non - farm job additions in February and March were revised down by 58,000 [6][7]. - The main contributors to job growth were in healthcare, social assistance, leisure and hospitality, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services. The main drags came from manufacturing, retail, utilities, and other services. Government sector job growth only marginally slowed [9]. - The unemployment rate in April remained at 4.2%, and the key U6 unemployment rate dropped to 7.8% for the second consecutive month. The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6% [6][14]. - The average hourly wage growth in April was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year, both lower than expected. The average weekly working hours were 34.3 hours [6][15]. 3.2 Commentary: Employment Remains Relatively Robust, but Downside Risks Persist - The relatively robust April non - farm employment report reduces the Fed's urgency to cut interest rates. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 4.3%, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose, easing the short - term recession risk [6][18][19]. - The divergence between the service and manufacturing sectors in the job market indicates that the U.S. job market is not strong. Tariff policies may gradually have a negative impact on the job market, and there is a risk of a decline in employment data in the second quarter.前瞻 indicators such as the decline in the NFIB business hiring intention and the rebound in initial jobless claims suggest a weakening of employment data in the future. The proportion of long - term unemployed has increased, and the job vacancy rate has been declining, indicating a slowdown in the overall job market [6][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]