Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference conveyed a more dovish stance, signaling potential easing of monetary policy, which led to a significant market rally [1] - The immediate market reaction included a decline in two-year Treasury yields by 10 basis points to 3.69%, and the implied probability of a rate cut in September rose from 70% to 80% [1] - Major stock indices saw substantial gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.5%, the Nasdaq by 1.88%, and the Dow Jones reaching a record closing high, while small-cap stocks surged by 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Some Wall Street strategists view Powell's remarks as a reassurance to the market, but caution that the market may be overreacting [1] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have resurfaced, particularly due to President Trump's public pressure on Powell to cut rates and his comments regarding Fed Governor Cook [1] - The market's enthusiastic response reflects a conflicting sentiment among investors, who are hopeful for liquidity easing but worried about the economic fundamentals supporting long-term stock market growth [1]

早上好！先来看看重要消息。 当谈及是否会举行俄乌总统会晤时，普京说，他已多次表示总体上不反对，这一会晤是有可能的，"但 为此需要创造一定的条件。很遗憾，距离创造出那些条件还差得远"。 以总理称计划对整个加沙地带实施军事控制哈马斯强烈谴责 据央视新闻援引美国福克斯新闻的采访，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡称，"以色列打算对整个加沙地带实施 军事控制，但'不想拥有'加沙地带，而是希望将其移交给能够妥善治理的阿拉伯军队，并且确保加沙地 带不会对以色列构成威胁。" 据以色列媒体此前报道，内塔尼亚胡在8月5日召开有限范围内的安全会议后，"强烈倾向于全面占领加 沙地带"。相关计划于7日提交以色列安全内阁全体会议表决。 7日，巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）发表声明，对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡"计划占领加沙"的言 论，哈马斯予以强烈谴责。声明指出，内塔尼亚胡的计划是实施更多针对加沙地带巴勒斯坦人民的罪 行，来完成其种族灭绝和强制迁徙的政策。相关言论是对谈判进程的公然背弃，清晰暴露了以色列从最 近一轮谈判中撤出的真实动机，尽管冲突双方已接近达成最终协议。 哈马斯高级官员奥萨马·哈姆丹表示，哈马斯将把根据内塔尼亚胡此前声明所组建的任何部队都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, prioritizing inflation control amid persistent inflation, slowing growth, and policy uncertainty [1][7]. Inflation - Despite a noticeable easing since 2022, as of March 2025, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index year-on-year increase is still at 2.6%, with overall inflation at 2.3%, slightly above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2]. - Recent tariff increases have significantly impacted the prices of goods and services, with companies planning to pass on cost increases to consumers, further exacerbating inflationary pressures [2]. - The Fed staff analysis indicates that inflation may be more persistent than previously expected, with projections suggesting inflation rates will remain above target until 2027 [2]. Labor Market - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate stable at 4.2% as of April, close to the average level for the second half of 2024 [3]. - However, increasing trade policy uncertainty has led some companies, particularly in manufacturing, agriculture, and retail, to limit or pause hiring plans [3]. - While the current labor market is strong, there are concerns about potential signs of weakness in the coming months due to slowing economic activity and declining export demand [3]. Economic Growth - The first quarter saw a slight decline in actual GDP, attributed to fluctuations in net exports, with a surge in imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases and weak export growth [4]. - The Fed staff predicts that newly announced trade policies will have a more severe impact on economic activity than previously anticipated, potentially dragging down the potential growth rate in the coming years [4]. Financial Markets - Recent financial market volatility has been notable, with long-term Treasury yields rising and the dollar depreciating against most major currencies, attributed to concerns over the adverse effects of trade policies on the U.S. economy [5]. - Although the overall functioning of financial markets remains orderly, liquidity indicators in the Treasury market have deteriorated, reflecting investor uncertainty regarding policy direction [5]. Monetary Policy Stance - The committee members agree that maintaining the current interest rate is appropriate given the robust economic activity and labor market, while emphasizing the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on new economic information [6][7]. - The Fed is committed to gradually normalizing its balance sheet by reducing holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) [7]. Future Outlook - The FOMC signals a clear stance that, despite downward pressure on economic growth, the Fed will not easily shift to a loose monetary policy until inflation clearly returns to target levels [9]. - The Fed is closely monitoring global trade policy developments and their potential ripple effects on the U.S. economy, remaining vigilant and ready to respond flexibly to changes in economic data and risks [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 4 月非农点评：就业相对稳健，但未来仍有下行 风险 报告日期 2025-5-6 专题报告 ⚫ 个人建议，仅供参考！ 宏观 | 分析师：白素娜 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3023916 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0013700 | 美国非农、失业率走势图 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 数据来源：WIND ⚫ 4 月非农就业报告要点：美国 4 月非农新增就业人数 17.7 万人， 低于 3 月但高于预期， 2、3 月新增就业人数合计下修 5.8 万 人。虽然 4 月劳动参与率意外回升至 62.6%，但 4 月失业率维持 4.2%不变，且关键的 U6 失业率连续 2 个月下降至 7.8%，表明当 前的美国就业市场仍相对稳健，关税政策的冲击尚不明显。美 国 4 月平均每小时工资增速环比为 0.2%，同比为 3.8%，双双低 于预期。 ⚫ 点评解析：就业整体仍相对稳健：美国 4 月非农新增就业人数高于 预期，加上在劳动参与率意外回升的背景下，失业率仍维持稳定 且 U6 失业率下降，表明美国当前的就业市场仍相对稳健，关税政 策的冲击尚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold is "Bearish" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold soared 6.6% to $3,237 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.49%, inflation expectations dropped to 2.23%, real interest rates rose to 2.26%, the US dollar index tumbled 2.84% to 100, the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, the RMB rose slightly, and the Shanghai gold shifted from a premium to a discount [2] - The sharp rise in gold was driven by the inflow of funds due to the triple slump in the US stock, bond, and exchange markets. The erratic US tariff policy and the escalating retaliatory tariffs between the US and China increased market risk aversion, which was fundamentally beneficial to gold. The extreme tariff policy also led to capital outflows from the US, weakening the US dollar and benefiting gold [2] - US economic data showed a decline in inflation pressure in March, but food prices continued to rise, and future tariffs would cause further price increases. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April decreased, while the one-year inflation expectation climbed [2] - There is a risk of overheating in the short-term market sentiment. The positions and trading volume of Shanghai gold have increased significantly, and there was profit-taking by long positions overseas last week. The short-term postponement of additional tariffs and exemptions for certain commodities by the US reduced the possibility of conflict escalation, and the Fed's potential market intervention also eased the selling pressure [3] - After the strong rise of gold, long positions have become crowded in the short term. Tariff developments will increase market volatility, and attention should be paid to the risk of a correction [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The internal basis (spot - futures) was 0.45 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of 0.52 yuan and a change rate of -742.9%. The internal - external futures price difference was -9.19 yuan/gram, with a weekly change of -11.28 yuan and a change rate of -539.0% [11] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 3 kilograms to 15,678 kilograms, while the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 495,732 ounces to 44,575,964 ounces [11] - The SPDR ETF holding volume rose by 20.35 tons to 953.15 tons, and the CFTC gold speculative net long positions decreased by 38,088 hands to 138,465 hands [11] - The US Treasury yield increased by 0.47 percentage points to 4.48%, and the US dollar index decreased by 3.15 points to 99.77 [11] - The SOFR was 4.37%, with a weekly decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The US 10-year breakeven inflation rate dropped by 0.0431 percentage points to 2.2336% [11] - The S&P 500 index increased by 289 points to 5,363, and the VIX volatility index decreased by 7.8 points to 37.6 [11] - The gold cross - market arbitrage trading volume decreased by 0.1 to 7.2, and the US 10-year real interest rate increased by 0.58 percentage points to 2.26% [11] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.37%. Oil prices dropped 3.1%, and US inflation expectations fell to 2.23% [17] - The US dollar index tumbled 2.8% to 100, and the US Treasury yield was 4.49%. The S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%, and the VIX index dropped to 37.56 [19] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets declined, while the S&P 500 index rebounded 5.7%. Developing country stock markets also fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 3.11% [22] - Real interest rates rose to 2.25%, and gold prices soared 6.6%. The spot commodity index closed higher, and the US dollar index tumbled [23] - The euro rose 3.53%, the British pound rose 1.53%, the Japanese yen rose 2.31%, and the Swiss franc rose 5.34% [26] - US and German bond yields increased, and the US - German yield spread widened to 1.92%. The British government bond yield was 4.75%, and the Japanese government bond yield was 1.32% [27] - The US dollar index dropped 2.84% to 100, and most non - US currencies appreciated [28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - Gold speculative net long positions decreased to 138,000 hands, and the SPDR Gold ETF holding volume increased to 953 tons [31] - The RMB depreciated slightly, and the internal - external price difference fluctuated narrowly. Gold and silver prices soared, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 100 [35] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's March foreign trade and financial data; US March New York Fed inflation expectations [36] - Tuesday: Germany and Eurozone April ZEW economic sentiment index; US April New York Fed manufacturing index and March import price index [36] - Wednesday: China's Q1 GDP, March retail sales, and industrial added - value data; US March retail sales and April NAHB housing index [36] - Thursday: ECB interest rate meeting; US March new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims [36] - Friday: Japan's March CPI; US stock market closed for Good Friday [36]