Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) futures are showing a strong performance, with the main contract rising by 1.73% to 4523.00 yuan/ton as of the report date [1] - The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported an increase in net long positions for natural gas futures by 14,923 contracts to 251,233 contracts as of the week ending September 9 [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the growing supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will likely lead to congestion in European gas storage facilities by 2027, potentially lowering the TTF price to 20 euros per megawatt-hour (6.85 dollars per million British thermal units) [2] Group 2 - New Lake Futures noted an increase in refinery output by 0.64 million tons (1.2% increase), while port arrivals decreased by 4.9 million tons, with expectations of 750,000 tons arriving this week [4] - Chemical demand is showing signs of decline, with a 1% reduction in olefin operating rates and a 2.6% decrease in PDH operating rates to 70.5% [4] - The overall inventory levels are increasing, with port inventory up by 1.2% and refinery inventory up by 1%, indicating a potential weakening in the market fundamentals [4] Group 3 - According to Ruida Futures, geopolitical tensions combined with OPEC+ production increases falling short of expectations are providing support for prices, while the end of the U.S. consumption season and a loose supply-demand balance are limiting upward potential [5] - The overall inventory levels are slightly increasing due to a decrease in ship arrivals but an increase in unloading volumes, with regional demand showing significant variation [5] - The technical outlook suggests that the main PG contract rose by 1.33% in the night session, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is currently caught in a three - way tug - of - war among geopolitical disturbances, macroeconomic concerns, and weakening fundamentals. Short - term geopolitical risks, especially the US policy towards Russia after August 8, remain a major source of price fluctuations, but the premium caused by these risks has partially subsided and its sustainability is questionable. Macroeconomic recession fears have reignited, increasing market volatility and downside risks. The OPEC+ decision to maintain production increases, combined with the approaching end of the seasonal demand peak, will continue to exert pressure on the medium - term fundamentals. Without a major geopolitical supply disruption, time is more of a negative factor for the crude oil market, and the upside potential is limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, showing data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - week ago periods [10][14][16] Supply - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting confirmed a planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, which means the first - phase two - year复产 plan will be completed one year ahead of schedule. The current production increase is inappropriate given the weakening demand outlook. The US crude oil production, rig count, and North American active fracturing fleet numbers are also presented, along with the production of OPEC+ member countries. The US refinery operating rate and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) are shown as well [3][20][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil from countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, which reflects the supply situation from major producing countries and is related to the overall demand in the market [31] Inventory - Data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, are presented. Additionally, the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil in the US are shown [27][29] Position/US Dollar - Information on WTI and Brent fund positions, including non - reportable long and short positions, as well as the total positions of WTI and Brent, is provided. The US dollar index is also presented [32][33]