11月17日（周一），伦敦金属交易所（LME）期铜连续第二个交易日下跌，受累于美元略微走强、美 联储再次降息的希望减弱以及一系列宏观担忧。 LME现货铜较三个月期铜每吨贴水29美元，表明短期需求并不迫切。 不过，现货锌较三个月期锌每吨升水100美元，凸显出供应吃紧，LME锌库存不足4万吨。 伦敦时间11月17日17:00(北京时间11月18日01:00)LME三个月期铜下跌73.5美元，或0.68%，收报每吨 10,778.5美元。 LME三个月期铝下跌45美元，或1.57%，收报每吨2,813.5美元，此前触及10月23日以来最低。一位交易 商称："铝价一直在大幅上涨，现在人们可能认为这是做空的好价格。"期铝11月3日触及2,920美元的 2022年5月以来高位。 | | 11月17日 LIE基本金属收盘报价(美元/吨) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金屋 | 收盘价 | 张跃 张肤幅 | | 三个月期铜 | | 10,778.50 - - 73.50 -0.68% | | 三个月期铝 | 2.813.50 | -45.00 ↓ -1.57% | | 三个月期锌 | 2,994.00 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is currently caught in a three - way tug - of - war among geopolitical disturbances, macroeconomic concerns, and weakening fundamentals. Short - term geopolitical risks, especially the US policy towards Russia after August 8, remain a major source of price fluctuations, but the premium caused by these risks has partially subsided and its sustainability is questionable. Macroeconomic recession fears have reignited, increasing market volatility and downside risks. The OPEC+ decision to maintain production increases, combined with the approaching end of the seasonal demand peak, will continue to exert pressure on the medium - term fundamentals. Without a major geopolitical supply disruption, time is more of a negative factor for the crude oil market, and the upside potential is limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, showing data from the latest, one - week ago, and two - week ago periods [10][14][16] Supply - The OPEC+ JMMC meeting confirmed a planned production increase of 547,000 barrels per day in September, which means the first - phase two - year复产 plan will be completed one year ahead of schedule. The current production increase is inappropriate given the weakening demand outlook. The US crude oil production, rig count, and North American active fracturing fleet numbers are also presented, along with the production of OPEC+ member countries. The US refinery operating rate and the operating rate of Shandong local refineries (atmospheric and vacuum distillation units) are shown as well [3][20][24] Demand - The report shows the production of crude oil from countries such as Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Oman, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia, which reflects the supply situation from major producing countries and is related to the overall demand in the market [31] Inventory - Data on US crude oil inventories, including strategic petroleum reserves, commercial crude oil in the US, and commercial crude oil in Cushing, are presented. Additionally, the inventories of gasoline, aviation kerosene, and distillate fuel oil in the US are shown [27][29] Position/US Dollar - Information on WTI and Brent fund positions, including non - reportable long and short positions, as well as the total positions of WTI and Brent, is provided. The US dollar index is also presented [32][33]