市场供应趋紧的迹象包括：美国主要储油中心俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油库存降至2014年以来的季节性最 低水平，同时美国的柴油库存也大幅减少。期货价差表明短期内供需关系较为紧张。 本周油价上涨。几个中东产油大国的高级官员昨日表示，市场需要该组织过去几个月宣布的所有新增供 应。不过，预测人士预计，今年晚些时候供应将开始超过需求。 早在今年5月份，高盛就曾预计OPEC+在7月份增产后将暂停增产，但该组织继续增产。 包括俄罗斯在内的OPEC+主要成员国迄今已宣布恢复自愿减产的178万桶/日石油供应，剩余约55万桶/ 日的供应量将在第一阶段计划中恢复。 Struyven表示："我们的预期是，在8月初举行的下一次OPEC+会议上，日产量将再增加55万桶。"他还 补充道，该组织的下一步策略将取决于市场基本面。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团认为，OPEC+很可能在下次集体增产后一段时间内不再增加石油产量。随 着这个产油国组织的第一阶段大规模增产行动即将结束，市场的注意力正转向后续行动。高盛全球大宗 商品研究联席主管Daan Struyven在OPEC于维也纳举行的研讨会间隙表示："我们的基本预测是，一旦8 月初下次会议上解除220 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ member countries to increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully reversing the voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] Group 1: Production Increase - OPEC+ aims to restore idle capacity in response to resilient global oil demand [1] - The decision to accelerate production reflects a long-term strategy shift towards normalizing idle capacity and market share while strategically constraining U.S. shale oil supply [1] - From March to September, Goldman Sachs projects an increase of 1.67 million barrels per day in crude oil production among OPEC+ member countries, reaching 33.2 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia accounting for over 60% of the increase [1]

智通财经APP获悉，据OPEC+内部人士透露，该组织正讨论7月连续第三个月执行每日41.1万桶的增产计划，这一数字是年初规划增产量的三倍。他们强 调，最终决策需待6月1日部长级视频会议通过，当前方案仍在讨论阶段。值得注意的是，若该增产方案落地，将标志着OPEC+自5月以来连续第三个月保持 同等规模的供给扩张。 增产决策与油价波动形成鲜明关联。自5月增产计划公布后，国际油价持续承压，伦敦布伦特原油期货价格已较4月高点回落逾7%。本周四油价再现大幅波 动，截至发稿，布伦特原油报64.31美元/桶，日内跌幅0.9%。这种增产策略与OPEC过去三年"保价限产"的立场形成鲜明对比，凸显产油国联盟政策取向的重 大转变。 市场机构对增产前景存在分歧。摩根士丹利石油策略师马丁·拉茨指出："鉴于前期增产已被市场消化，且违规国减产执行率未显著改善，我们预期7月将继 续维持41.1万桶/日的增产节奏。"彭博社调查显示，32位分析师中78%(25位)预测OPEC+将批准连续第三个月同等规模增产，仅16%(5位)认为将回归常规的 13.8万桶/日增产节奏。 增产博弈背后是需求预期转弱。尽管4月特朗普发动贸易战期间OPEC+意外增产曾导 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues on a TCE basis of $79.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of $56.4 million. Net income was reported at $44.1 million, equating to $0.27 per share. After adjusting for a $19.8 million gain on the sale of a vessel, the net profit for the quarter was $24.3 million, or $0.15 per share [6][7][10] - The average TCE for vessels in the spot market was $36,300 per day, while vessels on time charters earned $42,700 per day, resulting in a combined average TCE of $38,200 per day for the quarter [6][10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $277 million, consisting of $80.5 million in cash and $196.2 million available under revolving credit facilities. Financial leverage was reported at 16.9% based on market values for the ships [7][10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company sold the DHT Scandinavia for $43.4 million, recording a capital gain of $19.8 million during the quarter. The proceeds will be allocated to general corporate purposes, including investments in vessels and share buybacks [10][17] - Two time charter contracts were entered into: DHT China at $40,000 per day for one year and DHT Tiger at $52,500 per day for one year [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects to have 780 time charter days covered for Q2 2025 at $42,200 per day, an improvement compared to the prior quarter. The current spot market is strong, with an estimated spot P&L breakeven of $17,500 per day for Q2 [14][15] - The VLCC fleet is projected to shrink as demand for services grows, with an estimated 441 VLCCs older than 15 years by the end of 2026 [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to fine-tune its fleet profile based on customer feedback and market conditions, focusing on investing in ships rather than share buybacks or further strengthening the balance sheet [29] - The company plans to expand its fleet with four new ships in the first half of 2026, which will provide additional earnings days [18][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the market, noting that OPEC's strategy could lead to a robust summer market, which is atypical for the season [55] - The company believes that both scenarios regarding Iranian sanctions could positively impact the VLCC business, whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61] Other Important Information - The company declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share, marking the 61st consecutive quarterly cash dividend [12] - The company acquired the remaining shares in Goodwood Ship Management for $6.1 million, fully integrating it into DHT's operations [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Decision on vessel sales and cash allocation priorities - Management indicated that the decision to sell older ships was based on market conditions and customer preferences. The allocation of cash for corporate purposes, investments, share buybacks, and debt prepayment is not in a specific order but depends on market opportunities [27][29] Question: Appetite for extended contracts and profit-sharing structures - Management expressed excitement about the long-term time charter contract with DHT Appaloosa, indicating a potential shift towards more extended contracts and profit-sharing arrangements [33][35] Question: Impact of OPEC's production increase on the market - Management noted that while it is early to predict the exact impact of OPEC's production increases, they expect to see more cargo in the market, which could positively affect VLCC demand [39][40] Question: Fuel spreads and macroeconomic impacts - Management discussed the current state of fuel spreads and indicated that while the market is dynamic, the relationship between demand for different fuel types could influence spreads [44][46] Question: Future of the VLCC market with potential Iranian oil re-entry - Management outlined two scenarios regarding Iranian oil sanctions, both of which could be positive for the VLCC market, depending on whether sanctions are lifted or maintained [60][61]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that oil traders expect an escalation of the "OPEC internal conflict" next week, led by Saudi Arabia, which will continue to exceed production expectations to pressure oil prices and address violations by member countries [1] - The market perceives Saudi Arabia's strategy as similar to its actions in early 2020, where it pressured Russia into agreeing to production cuts [1] - Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia will not relent until its objectives are achieved, indicating a strong commitment to its production strategy [1]