今年以来，OPEC+的增产策略是市场关注的焦点。光大期货能源化工研究总监杜冰沁对记者表示，自 2025年4月起，OPEC+逐步退出自愿减产协议，尽管12月会议决定维持2026年一季度暂停增产计划，但 其前期持续增产已对全球原油市场形成较大供应压力。数据显示，当前8个OPEC+产油国剩余产能合计 约355万桶/日，其中沙特独占约200万桶/日。 国内成品油零售价格迎来年内最后一次调价。据国家发展改革委官网消息，自12月22日24时起，国内 汽、柴油价格（标准品，下同）每吨分别降低170元和165元。 本次下调后，据市场机构测算，私家车加满一箱50升92号汽油少花6.5元，物流行业重型卡车月均燃油 成本减少266元，居民出行与物流运输压力进一步缓解。至此，2025年成品油调价以"三连跌"收尾，全 年累计调价25轮，形成"7涨12跌6搁浅"的格局，涨跌互抵后汽油吨价累计下调915元，柴油吨价累计下 调880元。 卓创资讯成品油分析师许磊告诉期货日报记者，本计价周期内，原油供应过剩担忧加剧，美国原油价格 一度收于2021年2月以来最低水平，尽管调价窗口末期原油价格连续三日小幅上涨，但仍未逆转本轮跌 势。 方正中期期货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday (August 12), most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with industrial products mostly rising and agricultural products showing mixed performance [1] - The steel market is in a tight - balance state between "policy expectation support" and "off - season demand suppression", and high - level volatility of steel is expected. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of hot metal production and the implementation of production - restriction policies [1] - In the short term, due to the impact of China - Canada trade policies, the vegetable oil sector may continue to show a strong - oscillating trend, and palm oil may also continue its strong performance, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Black Series - Most black - series commodities rose. After the implementation of production - restriction news in Tangshan over the weekend and the upward trend of coking coal and coke futures prices, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded by about 1%. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 23470 tons to 1.37536 million tons last week, reaching a more than two - month high [1] Basic Metals - Most basic metals rose. For copper, with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and a strong bullish atmosphere in industrial products, the copper market showed a strong performance. For lithium carbonate, it opened sharply higher, then oscillated and declined, with a supply contraction due to the shutdown of a mine in Jiangxi, but the increase in spodumene - based lithium production would supplement part of the supply reduction. With increased downstream production scheduling in August, the fundamentals improved marginally [1] Energy Products - Energy products rebounded after a decline. International oil prices stabilized and rebounded overnight, driving up the sentiment in the domestic crude - oil market. In the short term, due to OPEC +'s planned production increase in September and concerns about the impact of tariff policies on demand, oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Geopolitical risks may support short - term price increases. In the long term, due to OPEC +'s production - increase strategy, weakening peak - season demand, inventory accumulation, and the increasing substitution rate of the new - energy industry, oil prices are still under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products rose. The preliminary ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce led to a sharp rise in the far - month vegetable oil contracts, while the main 09 contract of rapeseed meal fell under the pressure of a large increase in warehouse receipts. Palm oil continued to be strong due to lower - than - expected production growth and inventory in Malaysia and the impact of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that OPEC+ is likely to halt further oil production increases after the next collective increase [1] - The market's focus is shifting towards OPEC+'s next actions as the first phase of large-scale production increases is nearing its end [1] - OPEC+ major members, including Russia, have announced a restoration of voluntary production cuts totaling 1.78 million barrels per day, with approximately 550,000 barrels per day remaining to be restored in the first phase [1] Group 2 - Signs of tightening market supply include a drop in crude oil inventories at the Cushing storage hub to the lowest seasonal level since 2014, along with a significant reduction in diesel inventories [2] - Analysts express concerns that the current supply tightness may end due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from non-OPEC countries such as Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and the U.S. [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts surpluses in oil supply for this year and next, which is a reason for the expectation that OPEC+ will soon stop increasing production [2]