Core Viewpoint - The global asset allocation for 2026 is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a "loose expectation" to a "rhythm game" in liquidity, with structural opportunities expected to dominate asset performance [1][3] Macro Environment Shift - The performance of major global assets in 2025 was heavily influenced by changes in monetary policy expectations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3] - In 2026, the market is shifting from a focus on "betting on easing" to a re-evaluation of economic fundamentals and profit recovery [3] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve remains, but the path is no longer linear, requiring a more rational outlook compared to 2025 [3][4] Global Capital Flows - Geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties during Trump's second term have led global investors to reassess the risk-reward ratio of regional allocations, making Asian markets more attractive [4] - The weakening of the dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve have improved sentiment in Asian markets, benefiting countries like China, South Korea, and Japan [4] Industry Insights - The ongoing AI boom continues to benefit sectors such as communications and automation, driven by technological investment and capital expenditure [5] - The easing of U.S. monetary policy provides room for the Chinese central bank to lower rates, supporting A-share valuations and boosting manufacturing and related industries [5] Equity Market Dynamics - The traditional "see-saw effect" between stocks and bonds is weakening, with prices of both sometimes moving in the same direction, indicating a shift in market logic [6] - The focus in the equity market is moving from simple beta plays to a more structured approach that considers industry dynamics, corporate profitability, and long-term competitiveness [6] - The Chinese market is transitioning from "valuation repair" to "profit verification," emphasizing the importance of real cash flows and long-term growth logic [6][7] Fixed Income and Allocation Strategies - The bond market faces new challenges and opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment, influenced by policy rhythms and credit expansion [9] - The "barbell strategy" is recommended for bond investments, balancing short-term and long-term bonds to manage risk and enhance returns [10][11] - Ordinary investors are advised to adopt a core-satellite strategy, combining stable funds with more volatile assets to balance risk and return [11] Key Themes for 2026 Asset Allocation - "Household asset-liability balance repair" is identified as crucial for driving economic growth and consumption, with a focus on income improvement and stable real estate [11] - "Credit expansion" is highlighted as a key area of focus, particularly in relation to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in technology, dividends, and consumer sectors [11] - Maintaining a calm approach to asset allocation is emphasized, aiming for reasonable returns without chasing excessive expectations [11]