盡2026 年年度策略报告 金融工程首席分析师：马普凡 金融工程分析师：吴金超 金融工程分析师：吴俊鹏 金融工程分析师：白拙朴 主动管理的价值发现与被动策略的配置升维 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 金融工程·年度策略报告 主动管理的价值发现与被动策略的配置升维 盡2026 年年度策略报告 2025 年 11 月 21 日 核心观点 分析师 马普凡 ：021-68597610 ：mapufan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盭盭盫盯盫盫盫盭 吴金超 ：021-68597610 ：wujinchao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盭目盫盳盫盫盫盭 吴俊鹏 ：010-80927631 ：wujunpeng_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盬盲盫直盫盫盫盬 白拙朴 ：baizhuopu_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S盫盬目盫盰盭盰盫盯盫盫盫目 研究助理：刘璐 ：liulu_yj@china ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，随着《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》落地强化业 绩基准约束，以及A股步入"慢牛"格局，市场环境显著改善。2026年，在政策、市场与量化工具的多重 助力下，主动权益基金的投资潜力巨大，其核心优势有望通过高集中度主题型选股得到充分发挥。未来 该行建议一方面持续关注主题投资，在国企、科技、消费三大主题进行布局，并挖掘细分赛道的投资机 会；另一方面重点关注大主题中基本面得分较高的个股，通过优质基本面的兑现挖掘稳健Alpha。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 政策及市场"慢牛"加持，主动权益有望实现价值重估 被动产品数量和规模跨越式突破，迈入高质量发展阶段 2025年以来，ETF市场数量和规模实现跨越式突破，ETF规模突破5.7万亿元，比2024年底增长逾2万亿 元，行业主题ETF、债券及跨境ETF扩容显著，大体量产品主要集中在宽基、头部行业主题领域。行业 板块方面，受益于政策支持、下游需求爆发及产业技术升级等因素，有色金属及TMT行业相关ETF领 涨。从资金流向角度看，科技和金融地产板块净流入明显。2026年ETF市场将呈现"热门赛道强者恒 强、产品结构持续优化、边缘产品加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dividend assets continue to show strong performance, with three major ETFs experiencing consecutive gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards dividend-focused investments [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - As of November 10, the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520550), the CSI Dividend ETF (515080), and the CSI Dividend Quality ETF (159209) have increased by 1.19%, 0.61%, and 0.60% respectively, marking six consecutive days of gains for the first two and four days for the latter [1] - The current prices for the ETFs are as follows: 520550 at 1.275, 159209 at 1.176, and 515080 at 1.646, with respective changes of 0.016 (1.27%), 0.006 (0.51%), and 0.011 (0.67%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis - The three ETFs have distinct characteristics: the CSI Dividend ETF focuses on undervalued high-dividend sectors like banking and coal, showcasing a nearly 5% dividend yield that highlights its defensive value; the CSI Dividend Quality ETF selects high-quality consumer and pharmaceutical companies based on ROE and other quality factors, balancing dividends with growth; the Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF attracts funds with a 6% high dividend yield, with over 60% weight in financial and real estate sectors, demonstrating significant low volatility [2] - Experts recommend a "core + satellite" investment strategy, using the CSI Dividend ETF as a base and combining it with the other two products to diversify risk and enhance returns [2] Group 3: Investment Considerations - All three products feature low fees and a regular dividend assessment mechanism, facilitating long-term holding [2] - Investors should be aware of the currency risk associated with Hong Kong products and the inherent limitations of dividend strategies regarding growth potential [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of the CSI A500 Index, which has shown both expected stability and unexpected strengths over the past year [4][6][8] - The index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by approximately 4 percentage points, with a cumulative increase of 45.08% since its launch [8][22] - The article emphasizes the index's ability to capture new productivity and industry upgrades, making it a valuable asset in investment portfolios [11][21] Performance Evaluation - The CSI A500 Index has demonstrated a balanced performance amidst market volatility, successfully reflecting its balanced attributes during style rotations [6][7] - The index's performance is attributed to key contributors from high-end manufacturing sectors, which are not covered by the CSI 300 [9][11] - The index has maintained a lower annualized volatility and maximum drawdown compared to the CSI 300 and small-cap indices, indicating robust risk management [16][18] Market Dynamics - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in the CSI A500 ETF, with a 25.11% rise in holdings, reaching over 93% [18][20] - The shift in insurance capital towards the CSI A500 ETF, with a more than 50% increase in holdings, signals a growing recognition of the index as a core asset in long-term investment strategies [20][21] Growth and Global Recognition - The total scale of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 Index reached 183.495 billion, indicating significant market trust for a newly launched index [22][25] - The launch of a CSI A500 ETF by DWS in Europe marks a notable step in the global recognition of A-share core assets [28] Investment Strategies - The article discusses the "core + satellite" strategy, positioning the CSI A500 as a stable core asset in investment portfolios [31] - The "barbell strategy" is also highlighted, where the CSI A500's lower correlation with various asset classes enhances diversification and overall risk-return profile [32] - The index is deemed suitable for long-term funds due to its stable profitability and strong industry representation [33]

Market Performance - On October 17, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both dropped over 3% [1] Analysis of Market Conditions - The decline in the three major indices is attributed to the ongoing risks associated with U.S. regional banks, which have revealed potential losses due to loan issues, raising global concerns about the stability of the financial system. This, combined with uncertainties from U.S.-China trade tensions, has led to a significant tightening of market risk appetite [2] - The rapid increase in gold prices reflects market vigilance towards a potential credit crisis, further suppressing equity asset performance. Additionally, some previously popular sectors in the A-share market have seen substantial gains, prompting profit-taking amid a lack of clear market direction, particularly affecting growth sectors like electric equipment and electronics [2] Domestic Financial Environment - September financial data presents a mixed signal of overall positivity and structural concerns. The M1 growth rate rebounded significantly to 7.2%, indicating enhanced corporate liquidity and improved economic vitality. However, the year-on-year growth of new social financing and credit remains weak, with household loans still lagging and corporate medium to long-term demand needing improvement, suggesting that the recovery of the real economy is not yet solid [2] - A significant decrease in non-bank deposit increments may indicate a slowdown in the willingness of new funds to enter the market, although this could also be related to high year-on-year comparisons and seasonal financial adjustments [2] Market Outlook - In the context of external risks and internal structural transitions, the A-share market may continue to experience a volatile pattern in the short term, with accelerated sector rotation. However, in the medium to long term, the stabilization of the economic fundamentals and deepening capital market reforms are expected to support the recovery of A-share valuations [3] - Defensive sectors such as dividend strategies and essential consumption, which have previously underperformed, may present valuation advantages. Additionally, technology growth sectors like new energy and semiconductors may gradually reveal medium to long-term investment value following recent adjustments. Investors are advised to consider a "core + satellite" strategy, focusing on low-valuation dividend sectors with strong cash flow for core holdings, while opportunistically investing in policy-supported technology leaders for satellite positions [3]

Core Viewpoint - ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) serves as a bridge between stocks and mutual funds, offering real-time trading like stocks while providing diversification benefits like mutual funds [1][3]. Group 1: Trading Mechanism - ETFs can be traded on stock exchanges, allowing investors to buy and sell them directly through their stock accounts, with prices updated every 15 seconds during trading hours [4]. - Traditional mutual funds require investors to go through the fund company for transactions, with prices based on the net asset value at the end of the trading day [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Most ETFs employ a passive investment strategy, aiming to replicate the performance of specific indices such as the CSI 300 or Nasdaq 100 by holding the same constituent stocks [5]. - Investing in an ETF like the CSI 300 ETF is equivalent to purchasing a diversified portfolio of 300 leading A-share companies in one transaction [5]. Group 3: Transparency and Costs - ETFs provide daily disclosures of their holdings, allowing investors to see the underlying assets at any time, which contrasts with the higher information acquisition costs associated with individual stocks [6][8]. - The management fees for ETFs typically range from 0.15% to 0.5% per year, significantly lower than the 1% to 1.5% fees charged by actively managed mutual funds [6]. Group 4: Risk Characteristics - ETFs mitigate non-systematic risk through diversification, as seen in the 2018 A-share bear market where the CSI 300 index fell by 25.31%, while individual stocks experienced average declines exceeding 30% [12]. - Approximately 30% of the 4,000 A-shares in the market are suspected of financial fraud, highlighting the risk of investing in individual stocks compared to the diversified nature of ETFs [8]. Group 5: Suitability and Strategies - ETFs are suitable for investors seeking to participate in popular sectors like renewable energy or semiconductors without the need for extensive stock-picking skills [16]. - A core-satellite strategy can be employed, where a majority of funds are allocated to broad-based ETFs (e.g., CSI 300 ETF) as core holdings, while a smaller portion is invested in sector-specific ETFs or individual stocks for potential higher returns [16].

Core Viewpoint - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by increased investor confidence and proactive strategies from fund companies to capitalize on market opportunities [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since September, there have been multiple instances of equity funds ending their fundraising early, with 10 equity funds having done so [3][5]. - The market has seen a resurgence in "daylight funds," where some funds sold out on the first day of issuance due to reaching their fundraising limits [5]. - As of September 10, 54 new funds have been established in September, with equity funds (stock and mixed) making up nearly 90% of the total issuance [7]. Group 2: Fund Performance - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds in September has reached approximately 35.2 billion yuan, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion yuan, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale in nearly two years [7]. - Notably, the "Zhaoshang Balanced Preferred Mixed Fund" raised over 8 billion yuan on its first day, resulting in a final establishment scale of 4.955 billion yuan, the largest for an actively managed equity fund this year [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, suggesting a "core + satellite" or barbell approach to manage risk and returns [8]. - The market is expected to exhibit a "structural slow bull" characteristic, with a focus on low-position blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity sectors such as digital economy and specialized new technologies [8]. - There is an emphasis on the importance of liquidity and the potential for investment opportunities in commodities and sectors like non-consumer-related new consumption [9].

Core Viewpoint - The equity fund issuance market is experiencing a significant rebound, with many funds being oversubscribed and some closing early due to high demand from investors, reflecting renewed confidence in the market since 2024 [1][2][3] Fund Issuance Trends - In September, 13 funds announced early closures, with 10 of them being equity funds, indicating a strong trend in the equity fund market [1] - As of September 10, 54 new funds were established in September, with equity funds (stock and mixed) accounting for nearly 90% of the total issuance [3] - The total issuance scale for stock and mixed funds reached approximately 35.2 billion, with 15 newly established mixed funds raising a total of 14.02 billion, marking a monthly record for average issuance scale [3] Market Dynamics - The rapid fundraising of certain funds, such as the Huashang Hong Kong Stock Value Return Mixed Fund and the China Merchants Balanced Optimal Mixed Fund, reflects a combination of market conditions, investor demand, and proactive adjustments by fund companies [2] - Analysts note that the recovery in investor confidence is a result of a prolonged market adjustment, leading to increased enthusiasm for equity products [2] Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend a balanced asset allocation strategy, such as the "core + satellite" or barbell strategy, to ensure safety and returns [4] - The current market environment, characterized by a breakthrough above 3,800 points, is seen as a positive outcome of ongoing reforms and economic recovery [4] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors like digital economy, specialized new technologies, and cyclical commodities, which may benefit from improved liquidity [5][6]

Group 1 - The core driving forces of the A-share market are policy, liquidity, and earnings, as evidenced by historical bull markets since 2000 [1] - The current market is in a "systematic slow bull" phase, with the main upward trend expected to occur in 2025-2026, coinciding with the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the start of the 15th [4][10] - Historical bull markets have seen the CSI 300 index peak around 5500 points, with a potential upside of approximately 32% remaining until this level is reached [5][6] Group 2 - The early stages of a bull market are typically driven by valuation, while later stages require earnings support; currently, the market is still in the valuation-driven phase [7] - Growth and manufacturing sectors are expected to lead the market, with mid-cap stocks showing potential for recovery [8] - The current market environment is characterized by increased leverage and a shift of household savings into equities, indicating a bullish sentiment [9] Group 3 - A balanced asset allocation strategy is recommended, dividing investments into defensive, balanced, and aggressive categories to mitigate risks during market fluctuations [12] - The market is transitioning from a value style to a growth style, necessitating dynamic rebalancing of portfolios to avoid missing out on opportunities [14] - Investors are advised to set target return rates and gradually redeem profits to avoid the psychological trap of turning gains into losses [16]

Core Insights - The domestic gold market is experiencing a rare divergence, with leading brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang maintaining prices above 1,000 yuan per gram, while others like China Gold and Sun Gold Store are priced between 782.5 yuan and 879 yuan per gram, indicating a significant price gap of over 200 yuan on the same day [1][3] - This price disparity reflects a profound shift in the gold market from a "one-sided increase" to a "structural differentiation," presenting new decision-making challenges for consumers and investors [1] Price Differentiation - On August 8, 2025, among 13 major brands, 9 brands including Chow Tai Fook (1,015 yuan/gram) and Lao Feng Xiang (1,017 yuan/gram) formed the first tier with prices exceeding 1,000 yuan, while brands like China Gold (782.5 yuan/gram) and Sun Gold Store (879 yuan/gram) occupied the second tier [1] - The pricing strategies differ significantly, with leading brands using a "gold price + processing fee" model, where processing fees account for 15%-20% of the total price, while brands like China Gold adopt a "bare gold price + low processing fee" strategy targeting the cost-effective market [1] International Market Dynamics - International gold prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, with London spot gold prices oscillating between $2,400 and $2,500 per ounce in August, down 3% from July's peak [3] - The volatility is influenced by two main factors: fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a stabilizing geopolitical risk environment, which has reduced the attractiveness of gold [3] Central Bank Purchases - Despite the volatility, global central bank gold purchases are providing long-term support for gold prices, with a net purchase of 483 tons in the first half of 2025, a 34% year-on-year increase, with China, India, and Poland being major buyers [3] Changing Consumer Behavior - Consumer behavior is shifting, with a 20% increase in inquiries for investment gold bars, but the average purchase size decreasing from 100 grams to 50 grams, indicating a preference for gradual accumulation to mitigate short-term volatility risks [3] - Younger consumers view gold jewelry as both decoration and an asset, indicating that price fluctuations do not affect their long-term holding strategy [3] Investment Strategies - Experts recommend a "core + satellite" investment strategy for ordinary investors, allocating 60% of funds to low-processing fee investment gold bars or gold ETFs for stable returns, while the remaining 40% can be used for purchasing branded gold jewelry to balance consumption and value appreciation [3] - For high-net-worth individuals, innovative products like "accumulated gold" and "gold leasing" offered by private banks provide more flexible participation options [3] Market Implications - The divergence in brand pricing and international market fluctuations is reshaping investment logic, suggesting that gold does not belong to a specific price range but to those who understand its dual nature as both currency and commodity [4]