来源：市场投研资讯 美联储降息是指美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）下调联邦基金利率的行为。该利率是美国银行间互 相借贷的隔夜利率，其变动会传导至各类贷款利率和资产收益率，进而影响实体经济与金融市场。美联 储降息通常出于两类动机：一是"预防式降息"，即在经济尚未出现明显衰退但增长放缓、就业市场疲软 或通胀压力缓解时，提前采取宽松政策以防范风险；二是"危机式降息"，即在金融系统出现如金融危 机、疫情冲击等严重问题时，为缓解流动性紧张和经济衰退压力而快速大幅降息。 根据招商证券的研报分析，本次降息属于"预防式降息"。当前美国经济呈现明显的分化：一方面，与人 工智能、云计算等相关的科技领域投资保持强劲，企业资本开支计划积极；另一方面，传统制造业活动 持续处于收缩区间，衡量制造业景气程度的采购经理人指数PMI多月位于荣枯线下方，房地产市场在经 历前期利率高企后依然表现疲软。同时，最新的就业数据显示新增岗位数量放缓，失业率有所抬升。尽 管通胀水平相较于历史低点有所回升，当前支持降息的理由主要基于劳动力市场前景的恶化风险已经超 过了通胀可能持续超标的担忧。此次降息被视为一种微调，目的是在经济增长放缓迹象初现时提供支 持， ...

降息后的配置策略 20250922 摘要 美联储在上周如预期开启了降息周期，降息 25 个基点。这一举措虽已被市场 充分预期，但并未引发更大幅度的降息。美联储点阵图显示今年（2025 年） 接下来还有 50 个基点的降息空间，预计会有两次 25 个基点的降息。然而，由 于其中一个异常投票，导致市场对未来降息路径的预期并不强烈。 此次降息具 有预防性质，因此宽松交易暂缓甚至阶段性逆转。未来可能随着非农数据、通 胀数据及 10 月份进一步降息临近而出现反复波动。历史数据显示，自 1990 年以来七次降息周期中，美债、黄金、新兴市场和小盘股等资产在宽松交易中 表现较好，但随着利好兑现，市场将逐步转向复苏交易。 具体到当前情况，从 8 月中下旬到 9 月初，美债利率见底回升，美元走强，黄金回落，这些都表明 宽松交易已经开始逐步切换为复苏交易。预计此次切换速度介于 2019 年和 2024 年之间，即比 2024 年稍慢，但仍较快。这是因为当前通胀没有大幅回 落，且美联储此次降息速度较慢，对基本面的提振效果也相对滞后。 美联储政策对中国市场有何影响？ 美联储政策对中国市场有一定影响，但传导机制复杂，需要中国自身政策配合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and dynamics of the A-share, Hong Kong, and US markets, highlighting the shifts in leadership among these markets and the factors driving these changes, particularly focusing on the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and the AI sector's influence on market movements [2][3][26]. Group 1: Market Performance Overview - In July and August, the Hong Kong market was stagnant while the A-share market was strong, but by September, the situation reversed with Hong Kong leading due to expectations of Federal Reserve easing and AI internet sector support [2][3]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index broke its March high for the first time in six months, indicating a resurgence in the Hong Kong market [2][3]. - The performance of the three markets has shown a clear quarterly switching pattern, with Hong Kong leading in Q1, the US in Q2, and A-shares in Q3, before Hong Kong regained leadership in September [3][5]. Group 2: Market Drivers and Contributions - The US market's performance is primarily driven by earnings, while the Chinese markets (A-shares and Hong Kong) are more reliant on valuation expansion [5][7]. - The earnings outlook for the US has been revised upwards, while Hong Kong's earnings expectations have been downgraded, indicating a divergence in market fundamentals [7][11]. - The valuation metrics show that while the US indices have higher P/E ratios, they are supported by stronger earnings growth compared to the Chinese markets, where valuation expansion has been the main contributor to gains [9][20]. Group 3: Current Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - The Hong Kong market has seen a rapid increase in valuation and sentiment, with the Hang Seng Index surpassing 27,000 points, marking its highest level since mid-2021 [19][20]. - Technical indicators suggest that market sentiment is currently at an extreme level, with the RSI reaching 71, indicating overbought conditions [20][25]. - There is a noted divergence in foreign capital flows, with recent outflows from both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [22][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The future performance of the US market is expected to rely on the continuation of technology trends and cyclical recovery, supported by AI developments and Federal Reserve policies [26][27]. - For the A-share and Hong Kong markets, the outlook is more uncertain, with potential paths depending on either earnings recovery or continued valuation-driven performance, both of which face challenges [27][28]. - Investment strategies should focus on structural opportunities, particularly in sectors like internet and technology, while being cautious of high valuations and potential volatility [34][38].

◎记者 汪友若 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。根据美联 储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的发言，机构普遍认为，此次降息为"预防式"降息，即美联储并不会进入 持续性的降息周期，而是为了预防潜在风险，前瞻性实施相对温和的降息举措。从历史经验看，"预防 式"降息开启后，全球各类核心资产中，股票资产走势最为强劲，新兴市场有望迎来配置窗口。 利好股票资产表现 对于以中国市场为代表的新兴市场而言，美联储开启降息周期也意味着配置窗口的打开。在全球风险偏 好改善的情况下，降息有望推动部分国际资本流入新兴市场。 景顺亚太区全球市场策略师赵耀庭在研报中表示，当前新兴市场股票具有较好的投资价值。"投资者不 妨保持多元化投资组合，并有选择性地增加对新兴市场股票及新兴市场本币债券的配置。"赵耀庭称。 在美股市场，"降息交易"已演绎近一个月。 自美联储主席鲍威尔8月22日在全球央行年会上意外"转鸽"后，投资者便开始大幅押注美联储9月降息。 一段时间以来，"宽松交易"持续主导美国市场：美债利率和美元回落，黄金上涨，美股回调后反弹。 当地时间9月17日，美股三大指数收盘时涨跌互现— ...

消息面上，9月17日，美联储宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，这是 美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。方正证券表示，美联储降息符合预期。 9月议息会议再度开启美联储降息周期，但之前市场预期打得过足，宽松交易将边际回调。 中资券商股全线走低，截至发稿，中州证券(01375)跌4.79%，报2.78港元；招商证券(06099)跌3.76%， 报16.65港元；光大证券（601788）(06178)跌3.34%，报10.72港元；中信建投（601066）证券(06066)跌 2.74%，报13.5港元。 华泰证券指出，券商投资、经纪业务受益于市场景气高增，同时投行、国际业务强修复，迈入多业务线 持续增长新阶段。正向循环下券商业绩稳定性、持续性提升，继续看好板块价值重估机会。个股关注估 值更具性价比的头部券商如国泰海通 AH、中金 AH；中型券商如国元证券、兴业证券。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months since December of last year. This decision reflects a cautious approach to managing economic risks, balancing concerns over inflation and employment [1][2][9]. Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the Fed characterizing this as a "risk management" cut. The internal division among Fed members regarding future rate cuts was highlighted, with the dot plot indicating two more cuts within the year [5][10][9]. - The market had anticipated this rate cut, as evidenced by a 100% implied probability of a cut prior to the meeting [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar initially rose, while gold prices fell. The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones rising and the Nasdaq experiencing a slight pullback [6][7][21]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections were slightly adjusted, with a modest increase in growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while the unemployment rate was slightly lowered. However, inflation expectations for 2026 were raised, indicating ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures [13][15]. - The current economic situation is characterized as not being in a recession, but rather showing signs of structural divergence, particularly in traditional manufacturing and real estate sectors, which may benefit from future rate cuts [16][20]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The dot plot suggests the possibility of two more rate cuts this year, but there is significant internal disagreement among Fed members regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [10][9]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of further cuts, with futures indicating a likelihood of multiple rate reductions in the coming months [21][20]. Asset Market Implications - The transition from a "loose trading" environment to a "recovery trading" phase is anticipated, with various asset classes reflecting differing expectations for future rate cuts. For instance, interest rate futures are pricing in more cuts compared to the Fed's dot plot [21][28]. - The stock market outlook remains positive, with potential for further gains, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, as the Fed's actions may stimulate demand and improve economic conditions [26][33]. International Market Considerations - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from liquidity improvements, with a focus on sectors that align with U.S. economic recovery, such as technology and consumer goods. However, domestic policy support will be crucial for sustaining this performance [33][34].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point rate cut due to recent slowing employment growth [1] - Market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point cut, but there are expectations for a 50 basis point cut or continued cuts until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions to Rate Cut - CICC believes the upcoming rate cut is a "preventive" measure, indicating a gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, with potential overheating risks [2] - The market is expected to shift from "easing trades" (bonds strong, stocks weak) to "recovery trades" (stocks strong, bonds weak) over a transition period of 1-3 months [2] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16%, and ChiNext Index up 1.95% [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23,767 billion yuan, a slight increase of 353 billion yuan from the previous day [4] Group 4: Sector Performance and Trends - The ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, and CSI 500 Index reached new highs [5] - The recent K-line patterns of the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index show strong offensive characteristics, with key sectors like communication equipment and new energy driving the indices [6] Group 5: Broker Stocks and Market Dynamics - Major brokerage stocks, including CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, experienced significant selling pressure, indicating they are not yet in a primary upward trend [7] - The market is characterized by rotation among major sectors, with human-shaped robots, automotive, communication, and AI sectors generally rising [7] Group 6: Future Outlook and Key Sectors - The communication equipment sector's index is being closely monitored for potential new highs, while AI hardware stocks are expected to lead the market [8] - The solid-state battery sector shows a promising upward trend, warranting attention on core stocks [8]

Group 1 - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, but sentiment is not as one-sided as before [1] - Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference were interpreted as signals for a potential rate cut, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in Treasury yields [1][3] - Despite the initial enthusiasm, market sentiment quickly shifted to a more cautious stance, with investors reassessing the logic and potential impacts of a rate cut [1][3] Group 2 - Currently, the market sees a high probability of a rate cut in September, with futures pricing indicating a nearly certain 25 basis point adjustment [3] - There is a notable divide among investors regarding the necessity of a rate cut, as the economy shows no clear signs of recession and inflation uncertainties persist [3] - Concerns exist that premature policy easing could face price pressures, and political factors may challenge the Fed's independence [3] Group 3 - Some bullish voices in the market suggest that stock market gains should rely on robust corporate earnings rather than liquidity-driven boosts [4] - The upcoming economic data, such as employment and inflation indicators, will be crucial in determining the Fed's next steps [4] - The effectiveness of a rate cut in stimulating the economy remains uncertain, with the potential for adverse effects similar to those seen last year [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that during the US interest rate cut cycle, Hong Kong stocks may exhibit better resilience than US stocks, benefiting from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on TMT, energy, and telecommunications sectors [1] - The current trading mode is primarily characterized by stagflation trading, with a potential shift towards easing trading scenarios and recession trading scenarios [1] - Under stagflation trading, Hong Kong stocks have shown higher gains (close to those in easing trading), while US stocks have seen slight increases (similar to recovery trading), and US Treasury yields have declined (approaching recession trading declines) [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), which selects the top 30 securities by market capitalization from technology-related listed companies traded through Stock Connect, reflecting the overall performance of the technology sector in Hong Kong [1] - The index emphasizes information technology and hardware sectors, showcasing a balanced allocation across multiple tracks [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF Initiated Link A (015739) and Link C (015740) [1]

2025 年 05 月 11 日 5 月流动性：可以更加乐观 相关研究 - 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 联系人 黄伟平 (8621)23297818× huangwp@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 债 券 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 债 券 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 宽松政策兑现为 5 月流动性揭开良好序幕。5 月 7 日国新办举办新闻发布会，介绍"一 揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。其中，央行潘功胜行长宣布了三类十项货 币政策措施，意味着宽松政策从预期走向落地，为 5 月流动性揭开了良好序幕。 ⚫ 5 月资金中枢回落，保持积极乐观。多视角看待，5 月流动性均可保持积极乐观，资金中 枢或向政策利率附近逐步回归。 ◼ 汇率掣肘逐步打开。近期即期汇率已从高于中间价修复至靠近于中间价，稳汇率压 力大幅缓解，对资金利率的制约明显缓和，或也构成此次政策利率降息的重要时机。 ◼ 上半年政府债供给高峰即将到来，货币配合之下流动性压力难复现。（1）回顾四 月来看，流 ...