1、回顾看，自 2012 年"强制结售汇"退出、汇率市场化推进后，外汇 由"藏汇于国"转为"藏汇于民"，待结汇资金逐步累积，其规模变化主要 与利差、汇率预期等因素有关。 证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 gszqdatemark 2026 02 09 年 月 日 宏观点评 待结汇资金超万亿，对人民币影响几何？ 我们此前报告《人民币汇率"破 7"：原因、展望、影响》中指出，集中结 汇是本轮人民币汇率升值的重要原因之一。本篇报告进一步定量测算了待 结汇资金的规模、持汇成本，复盘了结汇与汇率表现之间的关系，并拆解 了企业结汇与流动性、信用扩张的关系，以期全面分析待结汇资金的影响。 核心结论：大体测算，2022 年以来累积的待结汇资金规模约 1.13 万亿美 元，持汇成本多集中在 7.0-7.2，加权平均为 7.1。因此，当前人民币升值 的背景下，叠加人民币资产吸引力上升，企业结汇可能延续。但从历史复 盘来看，汇率的实际表现并不仅仅取决于结汇规模这单一变量，而是由基 本面预期、美元走势等共同决定，不宜根据结汇规模直接映射汇率升值幅 度。往后看，维持我们此前判断："十五五"开局之年，国内经济总体保持 稳步增长，外部风险相对可 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：资本深潜号 作者 | 徐行 编辑 | 袁畅 最近一周黄金、白银等贵金属价格进入历史级波动，贵金属行情是否结束？此时是"倒车接人"还是顶部 挣扎？该如何分析大类资产的表现逻辑？ 2月3日，中金公司首席海外策略分析师刘刚在一个场合以"当黄金超过5500"为主题，分享了对最近黄金 等贵金属急涨、暴跌的剧烈震荡的看法。 这一关键时候的及时分析，吸引了大量关注。 基于"可资借鉴"的角度，我们予以实录（演讲以第一人称，略有删改）。 金句： 1、黄金价格在突破5500以后出现了明显回调，从结果上看这只是偶然，但这种结果本身有重要意义。 2、自上个世纪80年代以来，黄金价格从未出现过一个月内上涨25%，或一天跌幅超过10个百分点的情 形，最近的市场表现是前所未见的。 3、造成金价暴涨的原因之一，是黄金早已超越传统基本面定价。传统模型以实际利率作为持有黄金的 机会成本和时间成本，以通胀作为黄金抵御风险的价值来源，若按此类模型定价，黄金根本不应涨到这 么高。 4、判断是否出现流动性危机有一个非常简单的指标：看美元指数，只要出现全球性流动性危机，美元 ...

回顾2025年，全球大类资产的表现高度依赖于货币政策预期的变化。无论是美股的结构性上涨，还是黄 金、有色金属等资产的阶段性走强，其背后都绕不开"美联储何时、以多快的节奏降息"这一核心变量。 在经历了2025年全球市场的剧烈波动后，2026年的资产配置正站在一个关键分水岭。一方面，美联储降 息预期反复修正，全球流动性环境仍处在"拐点区间"；另一方面，亚洲与新兴市场的相对吸引力持续抬 升，中国资产在全球配置中的角色也正在发生微妙变化。 近日，施罗德2026投策会举行，围绕"全球视野下的资产配置新思路"展开深入讨论。与会嘉宾普遍认 为，全球流动性环境正从"宽松预期"走向"节奏博弈"，结构性机会将主导新一轮资产表现，投资逻辑也 需要随之调整。 宏观环境切换：全球流动性从"宽松预期"走向"节奏博弈" 站在2026年的起点，这一逻辑正在发生变化。 施罗德基金管理（中国）有限公司副总经理兼首席投资官安昀指出，市场正在从"押注宽松"的单一交 易，逐步转向对经济基本面与盈利修复的重新定价。"2025年更多是一种宽松交易和估值修复，而2026 年开始，投资者需要回答的是：宽松能否真正转化为经济复苏与盈利改善。" 从美联储角度看， ...

时序更替，2026年正式开启新程。当前全球经济正处于周期转换的关键节点，国际贸易格局与产业链重 构持续深化；国内层面，"十五五"规划开局起步，政策聚焦科技创新与新质生产力培育，中国经济向结 构优化、高质量发展的转型路径愈发清晰。在此背景下，市场核心关切集中于多重议题，全球"宽货 币"环境将如何影响大类资产轮动节奏？中国经济新旧动能转换将勾勒出怎样的产业投资脉络？港股能 否迎来系统性价值重估？A股在开年"开门红"后，又将沿着何种核心逻辑演绎？ 1月24日，律回春渐，共谋新章——富国基金一起投1月专场策略会圆满落幕。本次专场策略会邀请了浙 商证券首席经济学家、联席所长、大资产组组长李超、中金公司研究部董事总经理、首席海外与港股策 略分析师刘刚、富国红利精选(QDII)基金经理王菀宜、富国基金首席策略分析师马全胜出席，券商首席 携手富国基金投研人员，共话A股和港股潜在的投资机会。 本次专场策略会由四个主题演讲组成，演讲嘉宾李超、刘刚、王菀宜、马全胜分别从宏观经济、海外策 略、港股投资和A股投资四个角度分享了对于2026年投资机会的展望。此次策略会以线上直播的形式召 开，超30家平台同步直播。 提示：外部机构嘉宾观点 ...

Group 1 - The improvement in risk appetite is largely dependent on the decline in real interest rates, credit expansion, and the improvement of corporate earnings [1][11] - The current market's risk appetite is more influenced by institutional behavior rather than household actions, with weakened housing demand not translating into a chase for risk assets [1][11] - Despite nominal interest rates on deposits reaching historical lows, the willingness of residents to save remains at a historical high due to high real interest rates when inflation is excluded [2] Group 2 - Future market risk appetite may exhibit characteristics similar to macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments, with marginal adjustments in the cost-effectiveness of stocks and bonds [6] - The geopolitical risks are expected to drive gold prices, but ordinary residents face challenges in timing their investments in this market [9] - The upcoming maturity of a large volume of fixed-term deposits is likely to stimulate demand for asset reallocation among residents, supported by institutional behaviors that guide savings into the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses six fiscal and financial support policies aimed at stimulating private investment and promoting consumer spending, utilizing tools such as fiscal interest subsidies, financing guarantees, and risk-sharing mechanisms to lower financing costs for enterprises and reduce the consumption burden on residents [1][2]. Policy Content: Three Additions and Three Optimizations - Three new policies include: - Implementation of interest subsidy policy for loans to small and micro enterprises, with a 1.5% annualized subsidy for fixed asset loans, capped at 50 million per entity, focusing on key industries such as new energy vehicles and pharmaceuticals [2]. - Establishment of a special guarantee plan for private investment, with a total amount of 500 billion over two years, supporting loans for equipment purchases and business upgrades, including mid-sized enterprises for the first time [2]. - Creation of a risk-sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, providing credit enhancement support and loss compensation for bond issuances [3]. - Three optimized policies include: - Expansion of the equipment update loan interest subsidy policy to include more sectors and extend the support period, maintaining a 1.5% subsidy [4]. - Extension of the service industry loan interest subsidy policy until December 31, 2026, increasing the loan cap from 1 million to 10 million [4]. - Optimization of personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy, extending the support period and including credit card installment payments, with a 1% subsidy rate [4]. Policy Effectiveness: Expanding Demand and Credit Expansion - The fiscal interest subsidies are expected to significantly increase in scale from 60-90 billion in 2025 to 1,000-1,300 billion in 2026, with specific allocations for small and micro enterprises, equipment updates, service industry loans, and personal consumption loans [6][8]. - The combination of fiscal interest subsidies and fiscal subsidies is anticipated to effectively stimulate investment and consumption, with a notable impact on sectors like equipment upgrades and durable consumer goods [7][8]. Credit Impact: Demand Release and Differentiated Effects - The policy is expected to improve financing willingness and release credit demand, with differing effects between enterprises and residents [9]. - For enterprises, the policy is projected to significantly boost medium and long-term loans, with estimated savings of 1.75% in financing costs due to combined interest subsidies and structural policy rate cuts [10]. - For residents, despite the expanded support for non-housing consumption loans, conservative financial behavior may limit the effectiveness of the policy, leading to a focus on refinancing existing high-interest loans rather than increasing new loans [10].

Economic Outlook - In 2025, China's economy is expected to demonstrate resilience despite complex international circumstances, with a projected growth rate of around 5% [2] - Predictions indicate that by the end of 2026, the growth rate will gradually recover from 4.5% in Q4 2025 to 5.1%, with an annual growth rate of approximately 4.8% [3] Policy Initiatives - The Chinese government is focusing on technology innovation, green transformation, and improving people's livelihoods as part of its economic strategy [2] - Significant investments are being made in infrastructure projects, with a total of 2.95 billion yuan allocated for early 2026 projects, including 2.2 billion yuan for key areas like urban underground networks and high-standard farmland [6] Consumer Demand - There is a recovery in consumer sentiment, although challenges remain due to income levels and expectations [5] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to boost service consumption, with historical data indicating that tourism revenue during this period significantly contributes to quarterly averages [5] Investment Strategies - The government is emphasizing both "investment in things" and "investment in people," highlighting the importance of human capital development alongside physical infrastructure [8] - There is a call for debt restructuring to enhance fiscal sustainability and support for people's livelihoods [7]

Group 1 - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum was held on January 15, focusing on new wealth logic in the AI era and the future of capital markets [1] - Liu Gang, Chief Analyst of CICC's Research Department, emphasized that investment in Hong Kong stocks in 2026 should focus on sectors with credit expansion potential, including AI technology, dividends, cycles, and consumption [1] - Key sectors to watch include AI industry, robotics, and those benefiting from external demand and capacity clearing, such as power equipment, chemicals, building materials, coal, and dairy [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has lagged behind since October 2025, with the Hang Seng Technology Index showing the weakest performance among major indices [5] - The market is experiencing significant rotation, with a focus on valuation contributions and structural changes rather than broad market movements [5] - The credit cycle is crucial for identifying "scarce assets," with expectations for dividend growth in 2024, tech innovation in 2025, and balanced structural growth in 2026 [7][10] Group 3 - The U.S. credit cycle is gradually recovering, potentially leading to overheating, while China's credit cycle is expected to face structural challenges and slow down [10] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is projected to reach 6.4% in 2026, with an annual investment increase of approximately $1 trillion, contributing to economic growth [17][19] - The focus on technology and new consumption is expected to drive demand, while traditional sectors like real estate may require further interest rate cuts to stabilize [20][14]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current market's structural differentiation and rotation is excessive liquidity, leading to a pursuit of scarce return assets, with the direction of capital flow determined by "credit expansion" [3][8]. Market Outlook - The Hang Seng Index was at 26,000 points last year, and for 2026, a target range of 28,000 to 29,000 points is projected, primarily due to weaker profit growth in the Hong Kong market compared to the A-share market. However, significant fiscal policy efforts could open up upward space for the index [3][8]. - A-shares are prioritized over Hong Kong stocks based on overall fundamentals and liquidity considerations, but investments in Hong Kong stocks should focus on unique structural opportunities rather than the overall market [3][8]. Key Investment Sectors - **Artificial Intelligence (AI)**: Remains a market focus, with A-shares emphasizing hardware and Hong Kong stocks focusing on internet giants and applications, suggesting a complementary investment approach [3][8]. - **Dividend Stocks**: These stocks still hold value for balancing portfolio volatility, with Hong Kong having a relative advantage in this area [3][8]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: Including copper, aluminum, chemicals, engineering machinery, and post-cycle hardware tools, with a recommendation to pay close attention in the first quarter due to potential demand-side stimulus from the U.S. and domestic policy windows [3][8]. - **Consumer Sector**: Currently lacks strong overall fundamental support for broad recommendations, but a deep value and bottom-up stock selection approach is suggested for exploration [3][8]. Investment Strategy - The four highlighted sectors serve as important bridges for connecting investments between the two markets, with the overarching logic being to "follow the direction of credit expansion," as funds will converge wherever credit expansion occurs, whether domestically or internationally [4][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current market's structural differentiation and intense rotation are fundamentally due to excess liquidity, described as "too much money" chasing scarce return assets, which vary by stage [1][3][5] - The direction of capital flow is determined by "the direction of credit expansion," suggesting that investment strategies for 2026 should closely follow this trend [1][3] Group 2 - The outlook for the US market is optimistic, with expectations of an upward credit cycle and a positive view on US stocks, predicting a potential profit growth of 10-15% [5] - Despite discussions of market bubbles, it is advised not to exit the market too early, indicating confidence in continued growth [5] - Fiscal policy is noted to be more expansive compared to the previous year, with potential for exceeding expectations [5] - The US dollar is expected to remain stable, with a possibility of slight strengthening rather than significant weakening [5]