每经记者｜涂颖浩 每经编辑｜陈 旭 在全球经济周期步入关键转折点的2025年末，投资者正面临前所未有的复杂局面：一方面，以AI（人 工智能）为代表的新质生产力展现出强劲的长期增长潜力，但估值和预期偏高；另一方面，传统经济部 门信用扩张稍显乏力，整体回报率承压。 在此背景下，如何构建一个既能捕捉时代机遇，又能抵御周期波动的投资组合？ 在日前举办的雪球嘉年华活动期间，中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚在接受《每日经济新闻》 记者专访时，系统阐述了其对2026年全球及中国市场资产配置的前瞻性思考。 刘刚认为，2026年的投资策略应告别"单边押注"，转向"均衡配置"——在拥抱AI硬件等确定性成长方向 的同时，也需保留一部分高股息资产作为对冲。与此同时，港股市场凭借其独特的结构优势，有望成为 这一策略的重要载体。 从信用扩张中寻确定性 在演讲环节中，刘刚判断，2026年市场环境的核心特征是，过剩流动性不断追逐每个阶段大家认可的稀 缺回报资产，这一格局未被破坏，但稀缺回报资产能否扩散成为关键变量。 在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时，刘刚进一步阐述了"稀缺回报资产"的核心逻辑，即在于观察何处 正在加杠杆、扩张信用。"比如 ...

在此背景下，如何构建一个既能捕捉时代机遇、又能抵御周期波动的投资组合？ 每经记者｜涂颖浩 每经编辑｜陈旭 在全球经济周期步入关键转折点的2025年末，投资者正面临前所未有的复杂局面：一方面，以AI（人工智能）为代表的新质生产力展现出强劲的长期增长 潜力，但估值和预期偏高；另一方面，传统经济部门信用扩张稍显乏力，整体回报率承压。 在日前举办的雪球嘉年华会议期间，中金公司首席港股与海外策略分析师刘刚在接受《每日经济新闻》记者专访时，系统阐述了其对2026年全球及中国市场 资产配置的前瞻性思考。 刘刚认为，2026年的投资策略应告别"单边押注"，转向"均衡配置"——在拥抱AI硬件等确定性成长方向的同时，也需保留一部分高股息资产作为对冲。与此 同时，港股市场凭借其独特的结构优势，有望成为这一策略的重要载体。 刘刚在雪球嘉年华上演讲 每经记者 涂颖浩 摄 稀缺资产的再定义：从信用扩张中寻找确定性 刘刚对此也给出了自己的见解。他认为，港股市场的独特之处在于其基本面主要由内地公司主导，而流动性却同时受海外与内地（南向资金）双重影响。这 种"两头驱动"的特性，使其在不同市场环境下表现出复杂的轮动规律。 展望2026年，刘刚预 ...

美国经济有望实现修复继续支撑美股 在市场高度关注的"去美元化"话题上，刘刚给出了客观判断：去美元化确实存在，但并非普遍性趋势，不应无限外推。数据显示，部分资金在增持 美债的同时，另一部分资金将黄金推至新高，这反映的是全球资产配置的二元化割裂与再平衡，而非全面的去美元化浪潮。在外资流向方面，市场 呈现明显分化：愿意配置中国资产的资金已实现标配甚至超配，而部分美资等资金仍处于犹豫纠结状态，低配程度有所扩大，这一现象背后与全球 信用周期的变化密切相关。 针对美国市场，刘刚作出了偏积极的预判：基准情形下，美国经济及美股有望实现修复，甚至存在阶段性过热的可能，后续再需警惕过热后的风险 释放。在备受关注的AI领域，刘刚认为讨论"是否会成为泡沫"并无太大意义，关键在于判断当前所处阶段。通过对比需求、投资与资本市场定价 三个维度，当前AI领域的预期虽偏高，但尚未达到2000年互联网泡沫顶点的亢奋状态，仍处于值得把握的发展阶段。 财政政策方面，美国2026年确定性将呈现扩张态势。"大美丽法案" 有望带来1个百分点的增量贡献，而下半年中期选举相关的政策发力可能带来额 外上行风险，若增量投资落地，将对全球强周期板块形成拉动。传统需 ...

最近，商务部、央行、金融监管总局联合发布了一份重磅文件：《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度 提振消费的通知》。 一句话概括这份文件的核心思路就是：金融，要更直接、更主动地为"多花钱"这件事服务。这对金融市 场，尤其是A股，意味着什么？我们慢慢拆。 这份《通知》里，一共提出了3个方面、11条措施，内容很多，但如果从金融视角来看，其实逻辑非常 清楚：想尽一切办法，把消费信心、消费能力和消费场景重新激活。 而金融系统，是这次发力的"关键工具人"。 第一条主线：商品消费，要花得动钱，这次文件里，对商品消费的支持给得非常细、也非常直接。比 如：大宗耐用品、数码产品，汽车以旧换新等等，核心就一件事：让消费者买东西时，金融跟得上、撑 得住、成本更低。 政策明确要求：消费贷款额度更灵活，期限可以拉长，利率要更差异化，甚至连提前还车贷的违约金， 都可以适当减免。 政策明确提出，要让金融产品更贴近消费场景，而不是只停留在给贷款。 比如：服务消费专项贷款，养老再贷款，知识产权、科技成果等"无形资产"也能融资，商业保险、健康 险、年金险配套跟上。 这其实是在为服务业修复、就业稳定打基础。而这，对整个经济和资本市场都是正反馈。 第三条 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 12月10~11日，中央经济工作会议召开，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工 作。从银行视角看，主要有以下四个关注点： 1、货币政策延续"适度宽松"基调，政策工具运用更为"灵活高效" 2、投资是稳定信用活动的核心力量，2026年信贷社融增速或稳中小降 在2026年宏观政策取向上，本次会议延续周初政治局会议表述"坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策 和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"，财政政策定调延续"更加积极"，货币政策"适度宽 松"基调不变，预计社会融资条件保持相对宽松，流动性环境延续平稳充裕。聚焦货币政策表述方面，会 议指出要"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕， ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 2025年12月12日，央行公布了11月金融统计数据，数据显示： 点评： 一、需求不足压制下11月信用扩张动能较弱，跨年票据冲量明显 11月新增人民币贷款3900亿，同比少增1900亿，低于万得一致预测的5043亿，11月末人民币贷款增速环 比10月回落0.1pct至6.4%，较年初下降1.2pct。 累计角度看，年初以来人民币贷款合计新增15.4万亿，同比少增1.7万亿，其中7-11月合计新增2.4万亿， 同比少增1.4万亿，下半年信贷投放景气度较低。全年贷款投放靠前发力，季度间投放呈现出"6211"更明 显的前置节奏，反映出需求偏弱背景下银行体系年初集中抢量意愿较强。 二、对公中长贷增长相对乏力，票据、短贷冲量强度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of economic crises remains unchanged despite different appearances, characterized by excessive credit expansion, rampant leverage, collective greed, and subsequent panic [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Great Depression in 1929 occurred after the U.S. had already established a banking system, leading many to believe that such a crisis would not happen again [1][2]. - The U.S. was the first to enter a true consumer era, with significant industrial growth and widespread automobile ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - A hidden flaw existed when factory production efficiency outpaced wage growth, leading to overproduction and unsold goods [6][7]. - The introduction of installment payments transformed American consumption patterns, with 60% of cars and 75% of furniture sold on credit [12][13]. Group 3: Speculative Risks - The period from 1920 to 1929 saw the Dow Jones index rise by 500%, with widespread use of borrowed money for stock trading [17]. - Margin trading allowed investors to amplify their gains, but also their losses, creating significant risk when the market began to decline [18][20]. Group 4: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The absence of deposit insurance and the freedom for banks to invest in the stock market created systemic risks [30][32]. - A bank run occurred as depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to widespread bank failures and a collapse of credit [36][39]. Group 5: Global Impact - The U.S. crisis transmitted globally due to the gold standard, affecting international trade and monetary policies [41][42]. - Countries faced a dilemma between monetary expansion to stimulate economies and the risk of currency devaluation [45][46]. Group 6: Recovery Mechanisms - The New Deal introduced reforms but was not sufficient for a quick recovery; World War II significantly boosted the U.S. economy by increasing industrial demand [47][49]. - The cyclical nature of economic events suggests that understanding these patterns is crucial for mitigating risks [50][52].

Macro Strategy - The macro environment is influenced by both domestic and overseas factors, leading to a decline in market confidence due to a drop in manufacturing PMI and uncertainty in macroeconomic data [1][15] - Domestic liquidity support through fiscal issuance and monetary policy is stabilizing the valuation environment, while industry policies in sectors like renewable energy and satellite IoT provide long-term support for related sectors [1][15] - The consumer technology sector shows structural differentiation in earnings reports, with companies like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba facing profit declines due to intense competition, while Tencent and Xiaomi achieve profit growth through international expansion and premiumization [1][15] Industry Analysis - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced volatility driven by concerns over AI bubbles and mixed macroeconomic data, with strong non-farm employment data coexisting with rising unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health [2][4][16] - The semiconductor sector's performance is shaped by the earnings of companies like Broadcom and Micron, which validate demand trends [4][17] - The gold market is influenced by interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the performance of other precious metals, with a significant focus on the upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and inflation data [5][18][19] Index Outlook - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to maintain a bottoming and slightly upward trend in December 2025, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [1][15] - The Nasdaq 100 index is projected to experience a volatile upward trend, supported by the AI industry revolution and commercial validation, despite potential pullbacks if key economic data underperform [4][17] - The gold price is anticipated to remain strong in the short term, with a bullish medium-term outlook, contingent on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and macroeconomic data releases [5][18][19] ETF Products - The Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF (513180) closely tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, with a total market value of 47.745 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [1][15] - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ) also closely follows the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a circulating scale of 29.915 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [4][17] - The Huaan Gold ETF (518880.SH) tracks domestic gold spot price returns, with a total market value of 90.631 billion yuan as of November 28, 2025 [5][18][19]

Group 1: Credit Bond Market Overview - The credit bond market is expected to maintain slight growth in scale, with a structure continuing from 2025, primarily focusing on industrial bonds supplemented by urban investment bonds [6][16] - The supply side is driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing "technological self-reliance," leading to an increased probability of expansion for technology innovation bonds [6][16] - The demand side is anticipated to remain stable overall, but structural changes may occur due to regulatory constraints affecting major buyers, potentially leading to weakened or more volatile demand [6][22] Group 2: Urban Investment Bonds Outlook - The urban investment bond sector is expected to continue facing a "zero tolerance" regulatory environment, maintaining a tight balance in financing, with a focus on debt resolution and market-oriented transformation [6][28] - The strategy for urban investment bonds suggests prioritizing regions with strong local financial resources and successful debt resolution progress, with a focus on extending durations for certain bonds [6][28] - The supply of urban investment bonds is projected to remain limited, with a significant reduction in issuance and net financing, reflecting ongoing regulatory pressures [6][28] Group 3: Industrial Bonds Outlook - The industrial bond sector is expected to maintain a stable issuance pace, with financing capabilities improving as the real economy gradually recovers [7][10] - Demand for industrial bonds is driven by new supply and spillover effects from other sectors, with certain industries like transportation and construction attracting institutional investors due to higher valuation ranges [7][10] Group 4: Perpetual Bonds Outlook - The perpetual bond market is likely to see a slight contraction in new issuance, as banks have less need to issue new perpetual bonds due to improved capital adequacy ratios [10][22] - Demand for perpetual bonds may weaken as institutional investors face challenges in adjusting their investment strategies amid regulatory changes [10][22] Group 5: Credit Expansion Signals and Fundamental Recovery - The overall credit expansion remains limited compared to pre-pandemic levels, with a structural rather than a broad recovery observed across different industries [10][22] - Industries such as electronics and public utilities show signs of credit expansion, while sectors like real estate and food and beverage are experiencing credit contraction [10][22]

Economic Overview - The A-share market has shown a decline in sectors such as energy metals, power equipment, and electronics, while defensive sectors like agriculture, home appliances, and banking have performed relatively better [1] - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with a notable decline in real estate investment by 14.7% [2] - Industrial production has slowed down, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% for the first ten months, and a drop to 4.9% in October compared to the previous month [2] Financial Data - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion, a decrease of 280 billion compared to the same month last year, while the social financing scale increased by 816.1 billion, down by 595.9 billion year-on-year [3] - M2 growth has slowed to 8.2%, down from 8.4%, and M1 growth has decreased to 6.2%, reflecting a cautious approach from enterprises towards investment [3] Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have raised concerns about persistent inflation, leading to a decrease in expectations for interest rate cuts in December [4] - The domestic economic data has shown a downward trend, suggesting that the stock index may enter a phase of adjustment in the short term [4]