摩根资产管理环球多资产策略师盛楠表示："恰逢第30期《长期资本市场假设》面世，我们回顾市 场三十年来的演变和发展，并探讨经济民族主义、财政积极主义及科技创新将如何塑造未来，这些趋势 均对经济增长、通胀及资产价格影响深远。我们的研究显示，投资组合纳入另类资产有望实现较佳投资 成果，不但有助提高潜在回报并降低波幅，夏普比率（Sharpe Ratio）亦有所提升。以'60/40+'模拟投资 组合为例，当30%资金配置到多元化另类资产，整体预期回报率将跃升至6.9%，夏普比率较传统60/40 模拟股债组合高出25%。" 摩根资产管理资深环球市场策略师朱超平表示："全球风险资产年初至今表现依然强劲，在强韧的 企业盈利及科技创新迅速发展的支撑下，全球公募基金市场长线回报前景依然乐观。值得关注的是，东 亚市场正掀起公司治理改革浪潮，特别是中国及韩国等市场，当地企业正积极提高公司治理水平、增加 股份回购、加强信息透明度，从根本改善资本回报，令企业的重点策略与股东利益更趋一致。" 对于中国股票资产的长期预测，盛楠表示，中国A股长期回报前景良好，根据此次新发布的报告， 在未来10-15年预计年化回报率为7.7%（以美元计价）。这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of elite universities, led by Harvard and Yale, withdrawing from private equity funds raises concerns about potential liquidity issues in the private credit market, reminiscent of the pre-2007 subprime crisis [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Jeffrey Gundlach warns that the current state of the private credit market shows signs of stress, with widening spreads between BB-rated and CCC-rated bonds indicating that many junk assets are under pressure [1][3] - Elite universities, despite having substantial endowments (e.g., Harvard's $53 billion), are facing cash shortages, leading them to tap into the bond market for operational funds [2][11] Group 2: Private Credit Concerns - Gundlach challenges the notion that private credit is less volatile than public credit, arguing that this belief is based on infrequent market valuations and a lack of transparency in asset valuations [1][5][6] - The inconsistency in asset valuations among different managers in private credit raises concerns about the reliability of these investments [6][7] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Gundlach draws parallels between the current private credit situation and the subprime crisis, emphasizing that past performance does not guarantee future results, particularly in a market that has not been thoroughly tested [7][9] - The potential for private credit to be marketed to the general public, which was previously considered a complex investment for professionals, could lead to significant issues if liquidity is required [3][4]