以下文章来源于起朱楼宴宾客 ，作者大卫翁 起朱楼宴宾客 . 金融狗记录这个大时代，播客同名 除了个别失意者，比如数字货币、各国国债以及石油之外，从股市到贵金属到资源品，从美股到A股 再到日欧甚至拉美股市，从量化到主动权益再到CTA，这是个涨声一片的年份。 猜中这个结果的人并不多，毕竟我们在年中经历了太多大起大落。而如果复盘我在年初对2025的几 个猜想，结论也是在这个大时代中，做猜想可真是越来越难了。我已经尽量讨巧地描绘出一些比较大 而化之的场景，没想到还是有好几个错得离谱。 比如第一个关于政府化债，事实上这应该不是解决中国问题的扣，它只是一个起始点。 本文来自微信公众号： 起朱楼宴宾客 ，作者：大卫翁，头图来自：视觉中国 去年的猜想文开头 ，我说"期待能再拥有一个各种资产的全年涨幅都和2024差不多的一年"，事实证 明我的格局还是不够打开。 2025年，我们拥有了一个对于投资而言称得上"梦幻"的年份。 2025年从春节的Deepseek Moment开始，关税战、反内卷，再到下半年对AI泡沫的争论不休和房地 产的彻底沉沦，市场关注的焦点不断切换，但化债已经不再是其中的一个。 它是不是停止了呢？当然也不是，根 ...

私募信贷业务正在失去其独特的优势。像Ares Management(ARES.US)和黑石(BX.US)这样的机构曾经从 摩根大通(JPM.US)等巨头的眼皮底下抢走交易，并凭借其提供定制条款的能力攫取丰厚的回报。如今 的不同之处在于，银行业已强势复苏，而直接贷款机构则大力投资零售工具，这些工具为投资者提供了 套现的机会。总而言之，规模达2万亿美元的私募信贷行业正变得越来越像公共信贷行业，这意味着回 报率的下降。 在疫情爆发后的几年里，所谓的直接贷款机构成为了杠杆融资领域的王者。部分原因是竞争对手银行业 因收购贷款(包括埃隆.马斯克440亿美元的Twitter收购案)而遭受重创。这使得私募信贷基金得以直接向 借款人放贷，同时提供速度快、确定性和灵活的条款，尽管利率较高。像黑石这样的直接贷款机构为当 时一些规模最大的收购案提供了融资，例如2022年以100亿美元收购Zendesk。与此同时，利率上升使得 这些新兴机构能够向投资者承诺两位数的回报，这吸引了养老基金和保险公司的关注，从而推动了这股 浪潮。 然而，如此庞大的资金规模以及不断演变的融资模式，也引发了新的问题。已筹集的资金难以找到合适 的去处，截至202 ...

随着降息周期的冲击与市场环境的变化，美国上市商业发展公司（BDC）正面临自2020年以来相对于标普500指数最差的年度表现，这促使投资 者开始重新审视此类资产在1.7万亿美元私募信贷市场中的前景。 据彭博整理的数据显示，截至12月24日，追踪41只直接贷款投资工具的Cliffwater BDC指数今年已下跌约6.6%，这一表现与同期上涨约18.1%的 标普500指数形成鲜明对比。而在2023年和2024年，该BDC指数曾分别录得25.4%和14.1%的涨幅。 在美联储准备于明年继续降息的背景下，加之私募信贷交易缺乏导致贷款利润率收窄，BDC遭受了降息预期、市场冲击以及压力信号上升的多重 打击。 业绩落后引发投资者质疑 今年以来，BDC的表现显著跑输大盘，引发了市场对这一资产类别的广泛质疑。Opto Investments投资管理主管Matt Malone表示，客户对大型且广 泛分销的投资工具能否维持过往的回报水平持怀疑态度。 过去一年，私募信贷市场不断扩张和成熟，开始承接蓝筹人工智能基础设施项目及更多投资级债务。这种转变让投资者不得不思考，这是否仍是 为客户投资私募信贷的最佳风险调整方式。尽管Blue Owl ...

Core Viewpoint - Apollo Global Management is adopting aggressive defensive measures, including cash accumulation, reducing leverage, and selling high-risk debt assets, in preparation for potential market turmoil [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategic Shift - Apollo's CEO Marc Rowan emphasized the importance of building the "best possible balance sheet" to ensure profitability during challenging credit and equity market conditions [2] - The company is transitioning from aggressive investments to a conservative defensive posture, focusing on cleaning up its balance sheet and maintaining a "cash is king" strategy [3][4] - This strategic shift is occurring amidst signs of cracks in the private credit market, which is facing dual pressures of deteriorating fundamentals and shaken confidence [4][19] Group 2: Asset Management Adjustments - Apollo is specifically reducing exposure to high-risk areas, particularly in technology loans susceptible to disruption from artificial intelligence [11] - The firm is also retreating from the credit derivatives market, citing unattractive returns in many debt markets, especially in low-rated loan portfolios [12] - Apollo's insurance subsidiary, Athene, is building liquidity by purchasing hundreds of billions in government bonds and plans to cut its risk exposure in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) by about half to $20 billion [13] Group 3: Leverage and Hedging Strategies - Apollo's flagship fund, Apollo Debt Solutions, has a net debt-to-equity ratio of 0.58, indicating a conservative leverage approach compared to competitors [15][16] - The company has increased hedging positions against floating-rate debt to protect profitability amid potential interest rate declines [17] Group 4: Regulatory Concerns - Rowan expressed concerns about systemic risks from regulatory arbitrage, particularly regarding insurance companies moving assets to offshore jurisdictions with less stringent regulations [18] - He warned that such practices could lead to significant industry repercussions if defaults occur in these offshore markets [18] Group 5: Market Context - Apollo's defensive measures are taking place during a "liquidation moment" in the private credit market, which has seen a collapse in investor confidence [19][20] - The market is experiencing rising default rates, with notable declines in stock prices for business development companies (BDCs) despite an overall increase in the S&P 500 index [22][23]

美国私募信贷市场——这一曾被华尔街鼓吹为个人投资者"避风港"和稳定收益来源的万亿级领域，正面 临着基本面恶化与信心崩塌的双重冲击，由此引发的资产重估正在刺破行业的繁荣泡沫。 作为这一危机的最新注脚，私募信贷巨头Blue Owl Capital近日因风险考量，退出了为甲骨文一项价值 100亿美元的AI数据中心项目提供融资的谈判，这一消息迅速引发了市场对大规模基础设施融资链条断 裂的恐慌。 该事件不仅暴露了信贷市场对科技巨头激进资本支出的态度已发生根本性逆转，更直接导致甲骨文股价 承压，其主要合作伙伴及整体科技板块随之波动。 这一融资受阻事件并非孤例，而是整个私募信贷行业风险蔓延的缩影。 随着违约率上升和高利率环境下的借款人压力显现，包括KKR、贝莱德在内的顶级资产管理公司旗下 面对个人投资者的商业发展公司（BDC）正遭遇股价暴跌、坏账激增和赎回压力的多重围剿。 这场风波对整个规模超过2万亿美元的私募信贷行业构成考验。该行业此前主要面向大型机构投资者和 富裕个人，但BDC的困境显示，当个人投资者——他们往往在错误时机退出——进入这一市场时，可 能面临何等代价。 此外，摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon警告称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. private credit market, once touted as a "safe haven" for individual investors, is facing a dual shock of deteriorating fundamentals and collapsing confidence, leading to a reassessment of asset values [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Blue Owl Capital's withdrawal from financing Oracle's $10 billion AI data center project has triggered market fears of a breakdown in large-scale infrastructure financing [5] - This incident highlights a fundamental shift in the credit market's attitude towards aggressive capital expenditures by tech giants, resulting in pressure on Oracle's stock price and its partners [3][4] - The private credit industry, valued at over $2 trillion, is under significant stress as default rates rise and borrowers face pressure in a high-interest environment [4] Group 2: Impact on Business Development Companies (BDCs) - BDCs, which primarily serve individual investors, are experiencing significant stock price declines despite the S&P 500's approximate 16% increase this year [9] - The assets managed by BDCs have more than doubled since 2020 to around $450 billion, but the current market conditions are punishing investors who exit at the wrong time [10] - FS KKR Capital's stock has dropped about 33% this year, with a rising bad loan rate from 3.5% in January to approximately 5% by September [11][12] Group 3: Credit Quality and Defaults - The credit quality of BDCs is deteriorating, with significant investments facing default risks, such as KKR's $350 million investment in Kellermeyer Bergensons Services [11] - BlackRock's BDC reported a 7% default rate on loans, highlighting the systemic issues within the sector [13] - The situation is exacerbated by scandals involving companies like First Brands, which have led to substantial unrealized losses for firms holding their debt [14] Group 4: Liquidity and Valuation Issues - The liquidity crisis and valuation disputes are accelerating the market's decline, as seen in Blue Owl's failed attempt to merge its private BDC with publicly traded counterparts [15] - The disconnect between private asset pricing and public market valuations is causing panic-driven redemptions from investors [15] - Individual investors attracted by high dividends are now facing significant uncertainty regarding both returns and principal safety [16]

全球资产管理巨头阿波罗（Apollo Global Management）正在采取一系列激进的防御性举措，通过囤积 现金、降低杠杆率以及抛售高风险债务资产，为可能到来的市场动荡做准备。 12月22日，据英国《金融时报》报道，阿波罗首席执行官Marc Rowan本月在与投资者的私下会议中明 确表示，他当前的首要任务是打造"尽可能最好的资产负债表"，确立防御姿态，从而在信贷和股市面临 更大挑战、"坏事发生"之时，确保公司处于有利的盈利位置。 据与会人士透露，Rowan警告称，当前资产价格过高，长期利率不太可能大幅暴跌，且地缘政治风险加 剧。他直言不讳地指出："作为一家公司，不仅我们处于降低风险的模式，我们的资产负债表也在降低 风险。" 报道指出，阿波罗从激进投资转向保守防御，专注清理资产负债表并维持"现金为王"的避险模式，削 减AI相关贷款和CLO风险敞口，降低基金杠杆率，增加利率对冲，并警告离岸监管套利可能引发保险 市场系统性风险。 分析指出，阿波罗的这一战略转向正值私募信贷市场显现裂痕之际。作为该行业风向标，这一万亿级市 场正面临基本面恶化与信心动摇的双重冲击。据华尔街见闻文章，近期，另一大私募信贷机构Blu ...

Core Insights - The U.S. private credit market, once seen as a safe haven for individual investors, is facing a dual shock of deteriorating fundamentals and collapsing confidence, leading to asset revaluation and the bursting of a bubble in the industry [1][2] - Blue Owl Capital's withdrawal from financing Oracle's $10 billion AI data center project highlights a fundamental shift in the credit market's attitude towards aggressive capital expenditures by tech giants, resulting in pressure on Oracle's stock and the broader tech sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The private credit industry, valued at over $2 trillion, is under significant stress as rising default rates and high-interest environments put pressure on borrowers, leading to stock price declines and increased bad debts for major asset management firms like KKR and BlackRock [1][4] - The Business Development Companies (BDCs) that cater to individual investors are experiencing severe stock price drops, with some down by double digits despite the S&P 500 rising approximately 16% this year [4][6] Group 2: Financial Health of BDCs - FS KKR Capital's stock has fallen about 33% this year, with its non-performing loan rate increasing from 3.5% in January to approximately 5% by September, indicating deteriorating credit quality [6] - BlackRock's BDC reported that 7% of its loans were in default, highlighting the growing concerns over credit quality within the sector [6] Group 3: Liquidity and Valuation Issues - Blue Owl's attempt to merge its private BDC with publicly traded BDCs failed due to significant valuation discrepancies, with public BDCs trading below their net asset value (NAV) [7] - The lack of liquidity in private assets during market downturns complicates pricing, leading to panic-driven redemptions from investors attracted by high dividends, thus increasing uncertainty regarding principal safety [7]

编辑 | 关雪菁 头图 | AI制图 昨晚，美股AI板块遭遇了一场集体"血洗"：英伟达跌3.81%，AMD重挫5.29%，博通大跌4.48%，谷歌 跌3.21%，特斯拉跌4.62%，而风暴中心的甲骨文（Oracle），更是大跌5.40%，股价创下9月以来的新 低。 仅仅一晚，数千亿美元的市值灰飞烟灭。 但这并非毫无征兆。在经历了长达两年的单边上涨后，美股AI板块正进入一个最为凶险的阶段——估 值逻辑的根本性切换。 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 董必政 昨夜的暴跌，表面看是一次个案引发的恐慌，实则是美股AI"多空拉锯战"中，空头取得的首场决定性胜 利。华尔街的耐心正在耗尽，他们不再为宏大的"梦想"买单，开始拿着计算器，锱铢必较地清算每一笔 投入产出比（ROI）。 一、 100亿美元的"黑天鹅" 这场暴跌的导火索，是一次看似不起眼的融资终止。 Blue Owl Capital，一家在私募信贷领域颇具分量的机构，突然宣布终止与甲骨文的谈判。这原本是一笔 高达100亿美元的巨额交易，旨在为甲骨文位于密歇根州的数据中心项目提供资金支持。 理由简单而残酷：担心甲骨文的债务规模和支出过大。 在过去两年里，AI行业的增长逻 ...

金融稳定委员会（FSB）的最新数据显示，庞大的影子银行体系的全球资产规模已首次突破250万亿美 元大关，从而加剧了金融体系中监管较少的领域可能带来的系统性风险日益增大之忧。 FSB的年度全球金融监测报告显示，截至2024年底，非银行金融机构（涵盖对冲基金、保险公司、投资 基金等）资产总额达到创纪录的256.8万亿美元，同比增长9.4%。它们目前占到金融总资产的51%，与 疫情前的份额基本持平。 在非银行金融机构中，增长最快的是信托公司、对冲基金、货币市场基金和其他投资基金，增长率均达 到两位数。根据FSB，与此同时，银行业资产增长了4.7%。FSB由24个司法管辖区的财经官员组成。 FSB对于数以万亿美元计的私募信贷行业的增长数据缺乏表示遗憾。目前，监管机构正在密切关注这一 领域的危险迹象。包括摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon和瑞银董事长Colm Kelleher在内，一些银行高 管已就该行业的潜在问题发出了警告。 FSB对于数以万亿美元计的私募信贷行业的增长数据缺乏表示遗憾。目前，监管机构正在密切关注这一 领域的危险迹象。包括摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon和瑞银董事长Colm Kelleh ...