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由「咖」入「餐」难,外卖大战打到哪儿了
3 6 Ke· 2025-06-19 01:42
Core Insights - The ongoing food delivery subsidy war is approaching a critical point, with expectations that it will shift back to competition based on supply and delivery capabilities [1] Industry Changes - The food delivery industry has seen a significant increase in daily order volume, reaching a peak of 140 million orders per day, primarily driven by subsidies in the beverage sector, particularly tea drinks, which accounted for 50% of orders at peak times [2][4] - Meituan maintains a stable market share in the food delivery sector, with its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) holding steady at around 70%, supported by a peak order volume of 90 million and a customer price that is 2-3 times higher than competitors [2][10] Future Outlook - The current subsidy-driven growth in beverage orders is expected to decline after the 618 shopping festival, leading platforms to refocus on essential daily needs and requiring improvements in supply richness, delivery efficiency, and cost management [3][16] - Analysts predict that after the subsidy phase ends, the retention of the additional 40 million daily orders generated will need to be evaluated over a longer period [9][20] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, with Meituan, Taobao, and JD.com holding market shares of approximately 70%, 20%, and 10% respectively, despite new entrants and aggressive subsidy strategies [10][11] - Meituan's strategy has been to focus on essential meal delivery rather than heavily subsidizing beverages, which has allowed it to maintain a healthier order structure and profitability [12][14] Operational Capabilities - The food delivery business requires high operational capabilities, including supply organization and delivery scheduling, to meet diverse consumer needs across different times and scenarios [18] - As the subsidy war subsides, platforms will need to build foundational delivery capabilities to sustain their business models and consumer engagement [22]