Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to face significant pressure on profits due to intensified competition in the food delivery and instant retail sectors, despite an increase in order volume. Group 1: Financial Projections - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates adjusted net profit to be 7.7 billion yuan, with revenue expected to grow by 13% year-on-year to 92.9 billion yuan, resulting in an adjusted net profit margin of 8.3% [1] - The company's core local business operating profit is projected to decline by 33% year-on-year to 10.2 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin (OPM) of 15.2% [1] - The overall operating profit margin for the core local business is expected to decrease to 12.6% for the full year, with a total operating profit of 35.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 33% year-on-year decline [2] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The food delivery market is experiencing heightened competition, particularly with competitors like JD.com and Taobao launching aggressive subsidy campaigns, which have led to a significant increase in order volume [1] - The company has responded to competition by implementing various promotional strategies, including large consumer coupons and new product offerings, which have resulted in a 14% year-on-year increase in food delivery order volume for Q2 2025 [1] - Instant retail orders have also surged, with peak order volume reaching 150 million, driven by the company's participation in promotional events [2] Group 3: New Business Developments - The company has decided to further scale back its Meituan Youxuan business, leading to a reduction in expected losses for new businesses from 10.4 billion yuan to 6.7 billion yuan for the year [2] - Despite the reduction in losses, the revenue growth forecast for new businesses has been adjusted down to 10% due to limited contributions from overseas expansion and the closure of operations in many regions [2] Group 4: Valuation Adjustments - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 30% and 19% respectively, now projecting 28.6 billion yuan and 43.8 billion yuan [2] - The target price has been lowered by 12.4% to 155 HKD, reflecting a 20 times adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, with a potential upside of 23.5% [2]

Group 1 - Meituan's instant retail orders surpassed 150 million, with the "Shen Qiang Shou" category exceeding 50 million orders, indicating a significant demand for various food items beyond just beverages [1] - On a single day, KFC achieved remarkable sales, selling over 1 million servings in half a day, while other brands like McDonald's and Pizza Hut also saw substantial order volumes [2] - Among the top 100 merchants, 55 experienced a doubling in order volume compared to the same period last month, and 42 saw their transaction amounts double, showcasing a strong growth trend in the food delivery sector [1][2] Group 2 - Fried chicken and burger fast food categories dominate the top 20 food categories, attributed to their high standardization and quick delivery capabilities, making them popular choices among consumers [2] - International brands like KFC and McDonald's serve as trend indicators for domestic food businesses, with their promotional items seeing high demand [2][3] - Local dishes and home-style snacks are also performing well, with brands like "Mici Village" and "Nanjing Dapaidang" gaining traction due to their unique flavors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing competition between Meituan and Alibaba in the food delivery market is characterized by mutual distrust and aggressive strategies, with both companies continuously adjusting their tactics to outmaneuver each other [2][4][14] Group 1: Competitive Strategies - Meituan's strategy involves launching large-scale promotions and discounts to counter Alibaba's initiatives, resulting in a significant increase in order volume, reaching 1.5 billion orders in a single day [4][6] - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale aims to maintain a steady order volume of 80 million, focusing on building operational capacity before aggressively increasing order targets [5][10] - The overall market order volume has doubled from an average of 1 billion orders per day to approximately 2.5 billion, with Meituan capturing the majority of the increase [6][8] Group 2: Financial Investments - Both Meituan and Alibaba plan to invest a combined total of 500 billion yuan in the food delivery and retail market over the next few months, translating to over 5 billion yuan in daily subsidies [12] - The competition is expected to intensify as companies leverage their financial resources to attract consumers and increase market penetration [13][14] Group 3: Operational Performance - Meituan's delivery performance improved, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes for 1.5 billion orders, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [9] - Taobao Flash Sale reported a 96% on-time delivery rate for its 80 million orders, maintaining performance despite increased order volume [11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has shifted, with Meituan aggressively pursuing market share while Alibaba adopts a more cautious approach, focusing on stability and gradual growth [8][10] - The influx of subsidies and promotional activities has led to a significant increase in user engagement, with Meituan's app usage rising to 240 million users, up from an average of 170 million [14]

Star Brands - L'Oréal denies rumors of closing its Hong Kong office and layoffs, stating that it will continue to assess and optimize its organizational structure to adapt to market changes [2] - Sweet Lala collaborates with the game IP "Ball Battle" to launch a vitality fruit and vegetable tea series, priced at 8 yuan per cup [2] Consumer Platforms - Meituan's instant retail orders reached a record high of 150 million, with an average delivery time of 34 minutes, driven by social media marketing [5] - Unicommerce reports a 21% year-on-year growth in online sales in India's tier-three cities during the summer season, contributing to an overall 8% increase in e-commerce orders [5][6] - eBay is testing a new auction extension mechanism that adds 2 minutes to the auction time if a bid is placed near the end, aimed at enhancing auction fairness [6] - Temu's semi-managed model in Brazil will launch on July 31, providing small and medium sellers with a low-risk opportunity to enter the Latin American market [6] Investment and Financial Reports - Ferrero agrees to acquire WK Kellogg for $3.1 billion, with a cash offer of $23.00 per share [7] - Salia reports a 50% increase in net profit for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025, reaching 7.7 billion yen, driven by low pricing strategies [7] - Zhongjin Gold expects a 50%-65% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by favorable product pricing [8] - Western Gold anticipates a 96%-142% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, attributed to rising gold prices and increased sales [8] - Dongpeng Beverage forecasts a 33%-42% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, supported by national expansion and improved channel operations [8] - Xiangpiaopiao expects a net loss of approximately 97.39 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a revenue decline of 12.21% [8] - Jiaoge Friends reports a GMV of approximately 6.98 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [8] Consumer Dynamics - Nestlé's offices in France are being searched due to allegations of using illegal filtration systems that may conceal contamination issues [9] Macro News - The U.S. plans to impose a 50% tariff on all goods imported from Brazil starting August 1, which could lead to significant price increases for Brazilian coffee and orange juice [10]

Core Insights - The ongoing food delivery subsidy war is approaching a critical point, with expectations that it will shift back to competition based on supply and delivery capabilities [1] Industry Changes - The food delivery industry has seen a significant increase in daily order volume, reaching a peak of 140 million orders per day, primarily driven by subsidies in the beverage sector, particularly tea drinks, which accounted for 50% of orders at peak times [2][4] - Meituan maintains a stable market share in the food delivery sector, with its Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) holding steady at around 70%, supported by a peak order volume of 90 million and a customer price that is 2-3 times higher than competitors [2][10] Future Outlook - The current subsidy-driven growth in beverage orders is expected to decline after the 618 shopping festival, leading platforms to refocus on essential daily needs and requiring improvements in supply richness, delivery efficiency, and cost management [3][16] - Analysts predict that after the subsidy phase ends, the retention of the additional 40 million daily orders generated will need to be evaluated over a longer period [9][20] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape remains relatively stable, with Meituan, Taobao, and JD.com holding market shares of approximately 70%, 20%, and 10% respectively, despite new entrants and aggressive subsidy strategies [10][11] - Meituan's strategy has been to focus on essential meal delivery rather than heavily subsidizing beverages, which has allowed it to maintain a healthier order structure and profitability [12][14] Operational Capabilities - The food delivery business requires high operational capabilities, including supply organization and delivery scheduling, to meet diverse consumer needs across different times and scenarios [18] - As the subsidy war subsides, platforms will need to build foundational delivery capabilities to sustain their business models and consumer engagement [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) [4][6]. Core Views - The company is actively investing to strengthen its ecosystem and is optimistic about its long-term competitive advantages [1]. - The core local business has shown healthy growth with a significant investment of 100 billion RMB to support merchants, leading to a 17.8% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [2]. - New business segments are improving losses and expanding overseas, with a 19.2% increase in revenue for Q1 2025 [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 865.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.92%, and a net profit of 100.57 billion RMB, up 87.33% year-on-year [1]. - The core local business generated revenue of 643 billion RMB, with an operating profit of 135 billion RMB, reflecting a 39.1% increase year-on-year [2]. - The new business segment reported revenue of 222 billion RMB, with operating losses narrowing to 23 billion RMB, a 17.5% year-on-year improvement [3]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is experiencing healthy growth through refined operations, with a focus on high-quality products and services [2]. - The flash purchase segment continues to grow strongly, with an increase in the number of flash warehouses and order proportions [2]. - The company launched a "Meituan Membership" program to enhance cross-selling and transaction frequency in lower-tier markets [2]. Financial Metrics and Projections - The report projects net profits of 418.3 billion RMB, 534.6 billion RMB, and 638.6 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 499.8 billion RMB, 616.1 billion RMB, and 720.1 billion RMB for the same years, with corresponding valuations of 15.9, 12.9, and 11.0 times [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 37.45% in Q1 2025, with a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [3].

Core Insights - The company reported 1Q25 revenue of 86.6 billion yuan, an 18% year-on-year increase, exceeding expectations by 1.4% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 1Q25 was 10.95 billion yuan, surpassing expectations by 21%, driven by better-than-expected core local business operating profit and lower-than-expected losses from undistributed projects [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stood at 12.6% [1] Revenue Growth Trends - In 1Q25, core local business revenue grew 18% to 64.3 billion yuan, with takeaway orders expected to maintain a growth rate of nearly 10% and revenue increasing by 14% [1] - For 2Q25, takeaway order volume is projected to continue the same year-on-year growth rate, but revenue is expected to increase by only 5% due to subsidy impacts [1] - Instant retail segment saw a 32% growth in order volume in 1Q25, with expectations of maintaining this growth rate in 2Q25 following the launch of the "Meituan Flash Purchase" brand [1] - The in-store hotel and travel segment's gross transaction value (GTV) grew 30% in 1Q25, with a forecasted 28% growth in 2Q25 [1] Operating Profit Margin (OPM) Insights - Core local business operating profit increased by 39% to 13.49 billion yuan in 1Q25, exceeding expectations by 10%, with OPM rising from 17.8% to 21% [2] - However, 2Q25 operating profit margin for takeaway is expected to decline due to intensified industry competition and increased subsidy investments [2] - The in-store hotel and travel business's OPM is anticipated to slightly decrease in 2Q25 due to factors such as expansion into lower-tier cities and seasonal variations [2] New Business Developments - New business revenue grew 19% to 22.2 billion yuan in 1Q25, with operating losses narrowing to 2.27 billion yuan, better than expectations [3] - For 2Q25, new business revenue is projected to increase by 21% to 26.1 billion yuan, with expected operating losses rising to 2.6 billion yuan due to overseas investment [3] - The company plans to expand into more cities in Saudi Arabia and potentially enter the Brazilian market later in the year [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has lowered its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 5% to 40.9 billion yuan and 54.1 billion yuan, respectively, due to increased subsidy pressures and overseas investments [3] - Despite these adjustments, the company maintains an outperform rating and a target price of 177 HKD, corresponding to 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 25/18 times [3] - Current stock price trades at 25/26 adjusted P/E ratios of 18/14 times [3]

Core Viewpoint - Meituan reported a revenue of 86.6 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing an 18.1% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 10.1 billion yuan compared to 5.4 billion yuan in the same period of 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 86.6 billion yuan, up 18.1% year-on-year [1]. - Net profit reached 10.1 billion yuan, significantly higher than 5.4 billion yuan in Q1 2024 [1]. - Adjusted net profit was 10.9 billion yuan, compared to 7.5 billion yuan in the previous year [1]. Competitive Landscape - The CEO acknowledged the competitive pressure from JD.com and Ele.me, both of which have announced substantial subsidies for their delivery services [3]. - Meituan aims to maintain its market leadership by leveraging its established position and extensive experience in the food delivery sector [3][4]. - The company views the influx of new competitors as a sign of the growth potential in the food delivery and instant retail markets [4]. Market Strategy - Meituan plans to respond to the competitive environment by investing in maintaining its market share and enhancing service quality [5][7]. - The company emphasizes the importance of returning to sustainable growth driven by quality service rather than irrational subsidy competition [6][8]. - Meituan is committed to supporting small and medium-sized businesses on its platform, enhancing their revenue and operational efficiency [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates fluctuations in financial performance due to ongoing competitive pressures and high subsidy levels from other platforms [7]. - Meituan expects the food delivery industry to transition to a more rational and sustainable growth phase, which will improve the overall ecosystem [8]. - The management believes that regulatory bodies will play a role in curbing unhealthy competition, allowing Meituan to focus on winning in a fair competitive landscape [8].

以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者任彩茹 36氪未来消费 . AI则是更"未来"但也够"紧迫"的事项。在电话会上，王兴说"请允许我明确传达一个关键信息"——"在人工智能的起步阶段，我们的策略是进攻，而不是防 守。当这样具有根本性革命性的事物出现时，唯一有意义的策略就是不要试图用现有的方式进行防御。" 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 核心业务常态发展之外，迎接"既兴奋又害怕的事"。 文 ｜ 任彩茹 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 来源｜ 36氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo "2024年对美团来说是重要的一年。" 这是3月21日晚的电话会上，王兴说的第一句话。这一年，美团的各项核心业务没再遇见新的激进式竞争，但以"到家到店两大事业群整合"为代表，内部的 自我变革几乎是近几年里最重大的。与此同时，去香港、去中东接连告捷，为这家公司续上了新时代的故事。 着眼最近的这个Q4，美团取得了怎样的成绩？ 收入上，美团较去年Q4同比增长20.1%至885亿元，核心本地商业和新业务两大分部均实现双位数增长。利润上，经营利润率由去年同期的2.4%升至7.6%， 实现67亿元经营溢利。 整体无功无过 ...

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