去年，我又有两位同行离职去卖了保险。曾经他们是我的潜在客户，现在则"攻守之势异也"。 离开的人多了，留下的人反而更焦虑。 于是年终聚会的时候，对新年的预测就变成了最热门的话题。 一些投消费REITs的机构问得更直接：2026年的消费，会不会突然崩塌？就像2023年产业园的那一波剧烈震荡。 而每当聊起这个话题，我都能感觉到两层焦虑：一层是对宏观环境的不确定；另一层，是对自己所处位置的无力感。 于是我试着把情绪放在一边，用一篇文章，拆一拆这道现实题。结论先给出来：2026年的实体商业，大概率不会"崩塌"，但对大多数人来说，确实会更 难。 第二，乡村增速高于城镇；小城增速高于大城。 单独把城镇社零的增长率数据拿点出来看，你会发现它从2025年的7月份起，就没有再跑赢过全国平均水平。换句话来说，下半年的增速下滑，主要是城 镇消费不及预期。 在披露了社零数据的省份里，增速靠前的是海南、河南等非传统消费增长大省，而广东、江苏这样被认为"更有钱"的省份，反而跑输了平均水准。 难的原因，并不复杂。 一道并不友好的数学题：钱，正在流向哪里？ 先看一组大家都已经很熟的数字——2025年1-11月，全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长4 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 李方佳 2025年，"拼好饭"是年轻人中爆梗频出的热词，日前还入选了由《语言文字周报》主办的2025"十大网 络流行语"。 从全网玩梗互嘲，到拿"拼"自嘲，"拼好饭，是打工人最后的兜底""爱拼才会赢""果然年轻就是用来拼 的"……拼好饭的口碑，正在快速地两极反转。 拼好饭是2025年的一个年度爆款互联网产品，是宏观经济变化之下餐饮行业竞争加剧后，消费者精打细 算追求极致质价比的大众化选择。 拼好饭，通过"标准套餐、聚集订单、集中配送"模式，将同类餐品价格降低至常规订单的50%-70%，0 配送费、0打包费的"一口价"，主攻10-15元平价外卖市场。 很多人对低价外卖一开始是拒绝的，但当肯德基、汉堡王、瑞幸等越来越多的知名品牌上线拼好饭后， 消费者的心态开始发生变化。从拼好饭的流行可以看到，外卖大战以后，靠高额补贴吸引用户的模式不 可持续，2026年外卖行业的竞争出路，更多在于优化供应链，包括拓展更多优质的商品选择，确保快速 可靠的配送服务，并保持价格始终实惠。 在北京，15元以内饱腹的外卖能吃到什么？ 在美团拼好饭，已经可以吃到汉堡王、老乡鸡、永和大王、塔斯汀等多个品牌商家的主食套餐。 ...

2025 年，中国的消费市场：数据在涨，但体感偏冷。 前 11 个月，全国社会消费品零售总额同比增长约 4.0%；人均可支配收入在涨，人均消费也在涨。从统计口径上看，消费在恢复。 但与此同时，居民的消费意愿并未同步释放。前11个月，住户存款增加 12.06 万亿元，储蓄增量依旧高企。央行2025前三个季度的调查显示，六成的人更 倾向于多存钱，只有两成明确表示愿意多消费。 钱不是没了，而是被按住了。 这种"钱在变多，但不太愿意花"的状态，与消费者信心的长期低位高度一致。2025 年以来，消费者信心指数始终在 89 点左右波动，显著低于 108.77 的长 期平均水平（经合组织数据）。 埃森哲在《中国消费者洞察》中，从心理层面给出了一个解释：与 2021 年相比，2025 年人们明显更看重"健康"和"财富"，而对事业、爱情、个人成长等 长期目标的关注度整体下降。消费的重心，正在从"向上够"，转向"先稳住"，从改善式消费，转向防御型消费。 在这样的背景下，单看总量数据已难以解释真实的消费变化。哪些增长是真实的？哪些回暖是被提前透支的？哪些变化反映了消费者心态和行为的长期迁 移？ 延续去年的方式，我们依然尝试用 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - Meituan's "Pin Hao Fan" is exploring new supply models to enhance its offerings in the food delivery sector, focusing on collaboration with various restaurants to optimize supply chains and menu standards [3][4]. Group 1: Supply Model Innovation - "Pin Hao Fan" aims to partner with different cuisine types and interested merchants, providing them with location guidance, menu lists, and supply chain support to ensure alignment with Meituan's delivery needs [3]. - The team is currently developing new dishes and will create corresponding selection lists and process standards for various cuisines [4]. - The competition in the food delivery sector is intensifying, with supply-side innovation becoming a critical factor influencing user perception and long-term competitiveness [4][5]. Group 2: Performance and Market Position - "Pin Hao Fan" has proven its value during peak competition, becoming a significant driver of order volume, with daily orders exceeding 35 million [5]. - Despite initial losses, the rapid growth in order volume has justified continued investment in "Pin Hao Fan," which has become a crucial part of Meituan's strategy [5]. - The brand's perception among younger consumers is mixed, with a focus on improving supply quality to enhance its market position [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The "Wan Jia Brand" initiative launched in July aims to support 10,000 well-known restaurant brands with traffic allocation and customized services, with over 5,000 brands currently participating [6]. - Collaborations with international fast-food giants for C2M (Consumer to Manufacturer) strategies are underway, allowing for tailored product offerings based on consumer insights [6]. - Meituan's strategy includes deeper engagement with small and medium-sized businesses to ensure a more reliable and standardized supply [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Meituan's management emphasizes a shift from capital-driven growth to efficiency and innovation-driven models, indicating that supply-side innovation and service upgrades are essential for sustainable growth in the restaurant service industry [7].

Group 1: Subsidy War Among Giants - The three major platforms, Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, collectively spent nearly 800 billion yuan on food delivery subsidies in the second and third quarters of 2025, with a single quarter's expenditure reaching 444 billion yuan, a 48% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The subsidy war has led to a significant decline in profits for all three companies, with Meituan's CEO indicating that the food delivery business will continue to face substantial losses in the fourth quarter [4] - Alibaba's 500 billion yuan subsidy plan has been extended over three years, indicating a long-term strategy despite a reduction in fourth-quarter spending [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies and Financial Impact - Alibaba views food delivery as a traffic entry point rather than a profit tool, using subsidies to convert food delivery users into consumers of higher-margin businesses, resulting in a peak daily order of 1.2 billion after four months of its flash purchase service [5] - Meituan's marketing expenses surged from 180 billion yuan to 343 billion yuan, leading to a record quarterly loss of 160 billion yuan, with its profit margin plummeting from 25.1% to 5.7% [6][7] - JD has adopted a more restrained approach, focusing on supply chain optimization and improving unit economics, resulting in a decrease in market share but an increase in user engagement [8] Group 3: Impact on Merchants and Riders - Merchants are suffering from a "false prosperity," with total order volume increasing by 7% but actual revenue declining by 4% during the subsidy war [9] - Delivery riders face increased work intensity and risks, with income pressures expected to rise once subsidies decrease, leading to potential income drops due to oversupply in the labor market [9] Group 4: Industry Implications and Regulatory Response - The prolonged subsidy war has led to market saturation and inefficiencies, with a 10% decline in soft drink production indicating a distortion in the supply chain [10] - Regulatory bodies have intervened, urging platforms to cease low-price competition and focus on service optimization, highlighting the need for a shift from a scale-driven approach to sustainable business models [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][12]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%. However, it faced a Non-IFRS net loss of 16 billion yuan, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [2]. - The local core business revenue was 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability [3]. - New business revenue reached 28 billion yuan, reflecting a robust growth of 15.9% year-on-year, although it still incurred an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 364.1 billion yuan, 419.9 billion yuan, and 486.7 billion yuan, respectively. The Non-IFRS net profits are expected to be -18.1 billion yuan in 2025, 16.6 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.2 billion yuan in 2027 [5][10]. - The operating income growth rate is projected to be 7.88% in 2025, followed by 15.31% in 2026 and 15.91% in 2027 [10]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in operating efficiency and user engagement in the new business segments, particularly in grocery retail and international expansion [4].

Core Insights - The food delivery battle is entering a more complex phase where companies are reluctant to continue but feel unable to stop [1][3] - Major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD have reported significant impacts on their financials due to investments in food delivery services [2] Group 1: Company Strategies - Meituan's CEO Wang Xing firmly opposes price wars in food delivery, stating they do not create value for the industry [2] - Alibaba's e-commerce CEO Jiang Fan highlighted improvements in unit economic efficiency (UE) for instant retail, indicating a significant reduction in short-term losses and a notable decrease in investment for flash purchase services in the next quarter [2][4] - JD has quietly reduced its investment in food delivery services in the third quarter [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market is experiencing a "tide retreat," with companies signaling a shift in strategy [4] - Consumers have noticed a decrease in subsidies since November, affecting their purchasing habits [4][6] - The competitive landscape has changed, with Meituan holding a 47.1% market share in instant transactions, Alibaba at 42.3%, and JD at 8.4% as of Q3 2025 [6] Group 3: Operational Changes - Merchants are feeling the impact of reduced subsidies, with some reporting a 20% decline in order volume and revenue [5][6] - JD was the first to reduce subsidies, with a significant drop in its market share from 30% to below 2% in certain categories [6] - Alibaba's flash purchase subsidies have also decreased, although they remain more robust compared to Meituan [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The next phase of competition will focus on efficiency rather than capital-driven growth, with companies adjusting their strategies based on competitive dynamics [7][9] - Meituan plans to maintain necessary investments to retain its leading position while avoiding price wars [9] - The emphasis on high-value orders is increasing, with Meituan reporting that over 70% of orders exceed 30 yuan [11]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 2.0% year-on-year for Q3 2025, reaching RMB 955 billion, despite facing significant losses in its core local business segment due to intensified competition in the food delivery industry [1] - The company continues to enhance operational efficiency and consumer experience, focusing on service quality and market adaptability, which has led to record high daily active users and monthly transaction users in the food delivery sector [2] - The new business segment, including "Meituan Flash Purchase," is experiencing rapid growth, with increased user acquisition and transaction frequency, while expanding its supply capabilities and partnerships with leading brands [3] - The grocery retail business, including "Little Elephant Supermarket" and "Fast Donkey," is showing strong growth, and the company is exploring offline models to enhance supply chain capabilities [4] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company's adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit both declined to negative RMB 148 billion and negative RMB 160 billion, respectively [1] - The core local business segment reported an operating loss of RMB 141 billion, while the new business segment's operating loss widened to RMB 13 billion [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the company held cash and cash equivalents of RMB 992 billion and short-term investments of RMB 421 billion [1] Business Strategy - The company is accelerating supply-side innovation and improving service quality to maintain its competitive edge in the food delivery market [2] - New supply models such as "Pin Hao Fan," "Shen Qiang Shou," and "Brand Satellite Stores" are being implemented to enhance collaboration with quality merchants and expand high-quality product coverage [2] - The launch of "Brand Officer Flag Flash Warehouse" aims to provide comprehensive instant retail infrastructure for retail brands, enhancing user growth and sales [3] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its global footprint with Keeta, which is seeing steady growth in markets like Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil [4] - The company is focusing on improving consumer and delivery experiences in various regions through its product, technology, and operational advantages [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior in Japan and East Asia towards extreme cost-effectiveness and practicality, influenced by economic downturns and changing societal values [3][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The article references the Great Depression in the U.S., where citizens adopted frugal lifestyles, highlighting a historical pattern of economic hardship leading to changes in consumer behavior [3]. - Japan's prolonged economic stagnation, termed the "Lost Decade," has left a lasting impact on its citizens, who have become skeptical of politicians and media, focusing instead on immediate, practical needs [4][10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior Changes - There is a notable trend of consumers prioritizing cost over luxury, with young people in Japan and Korea opting not to buy homes or cars due to perceived low value [6][10]. - The rise of discount stores, such as the 100-yen shop in Japan, reflects a cultural shift towards valuing affordability, with over 8,900 such stores now operating [7]. Group 3: New Consumption Models - The emergence of new consumption models, such as Meituan's "拼好饭" (Pīn Hǎo Fàn), illustrates a significant change in the food delivery industry, focusing on cost-effective meal options that cater to a large consumer base [12][13]. - The article notes that the demand for high cost-performance products is reshaping various industries, including food and retail, as businesses adapt to meet consumer expectations for value [13][14]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The article suggests that economic downturns historically lead to innovative business models, such as the rise of supermarkets post-Great Depression and the emergence of brands like Uniqlo during Japan's low-consumption era [14].

Core Viewpoint - KFC and Meituan have collaborated to develop new meal options in China, targeting the growing trend of group ordering among young consumers, with affordable pricing for their new offerings [1][5] Group 1: Company Initiatives - KFC has launched the Chinese Guokui Burger and Huangmen Chicken Rice set meals at competitive prices of 10.9 yuan and 14.9 yuan respectively, attracting significant consumer interest [1] - Other international fast-food brands like McDonald's are also exploring partnerships with Meituan to enter the group ordering market, indicating a shift towards localized menu innovations [1] - The "Pinhai" model has seen a 64% year-on-year increase in the number of stores from well-known brands, with a 30% increase in orders and a 20% reduction in operational costs for those participating [5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The "Pinhai" model has become the fastest-growing innovation in the restaurant industry over the past five years, providing a reliable growth path for brands [5] - The model focuses on standard meal sets, centralized order gathering, and delivery, allowing businesses to create popular dishes and improve efficiency through economies of scale [5] - The "Wan Jia Brand" initiative aims to support 10,000 well-known restaurant brands with resources for traffic allocation, joint customization, and brand support, enhancing order and profit growth [5] Group 3: Market Performance - Successful collaborations have been noted, such as the partnership between Laoxiangji and Pinhai, which sold over 2 million units of a customized dish in six months, and Ziyuan Baiwei Chicken's duck leg rice set, which sold nearly 6 million units [6] - The introduction of the Pinhai model has led to significant sales increases for various brands, with some achieving daily sales of nearly 40,000 units [6] - The industry is currently facing challenges due to the end of large-scale discount subsidies, necessitating a shift towards product and channel innovation to achieve sustainable growth [6]