报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出 海的分化期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 全球视角：需求定增量，格局定价格。 全球水泥发展历程来看，区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程 与人口增速决定，但我们观察到 90 年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域（包括中国大陆、中亚、东南 亚、北非等），往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的 发源地在 70 年代率先完成了城镇化，实现了先竞争、先集中，高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在 水泥需求见顶后，反而迎来了价格的新高。 报告名称：海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题 报告日期：2025.07.08 报告作者： 鲍雁辛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880513070005 杨冬庭 ( 分析师 ) ，登记编号：S 0880522080004 经营视角：机制定速度，内功定质量。 2021-2024 年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企业海外投资 产能从 4503 万吨提升至 8759 万吨，其中民营、外资股东背景的企业及市场化机制较优的国企在扩产期 ...

Global Perspective - The demand for cement is determined by urbanization and population growth, with regions like mainland China, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and North Africa showing the highest demand growth since the 1990s, characterized by a decentralized industry structure and intense price competition [2] - Europe, having completed urbanization in the 1970s, experienced a shift to a highly concentrated industry structure, leading to new price highs after demand peaked [2] Operational Perspective - From 2021 to 2024, domestic cement companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, increasing production capacity from 45.03 million tons to 87.59 million tons, with private and foreign-backed companies leading the industry due to better market mechanisms [3] - The differentiation in overseas profitability among companies post-2025 will depend on their operational capabilities, particularly in site selection [3] Financial Perspective - Effective management of foreign currency liabilities can help mitigate exchange rate fluctuations, as demonstrated by Dangote in Nigeria, where despite significant currency depreciation, the actual profitability remained substantial [4] - The mismatch between local currency settlements and foreign currency liabilities leads to exchange gains or losses, and companies with strong management of foreign currency exposure can better convert accounting profits into actual profits [4] - A high proportion of foreign debt in USD suggests that a gradual easing of USD strength may provide additional profit flexibility for companies [4]