海外水泥投资

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国泰海通|建材:海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-08 09:41
报告导读: 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期,而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出 海的分化期,企业机制决定了扩产速度,但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 全球视角:需求定增量,格局定价格。 全球水泥发展历程来看,区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程 与人口增速决定,但我们观察到 90 年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域(包括中国大陆、中亚、东南 亚、北非等),往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的 发源地在 70 年代率先完成了城镇化,实现了先竞争、先集中,高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在 水泥需求见顶后,反而迎来了价格的新高。 报告名称:海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题 报告日期:2025.07.08 报告作者: 鲍雁辛 (分析师),登记编号: S 0880513070005 杨冬庭 ( 分析师 ) ,登记编号:S 0880522080004 经营视角:机制定速度,内功定质量。 2021-2024 年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企业海外投资 产能从 4503 万吨提升至 8759 万吨,其中民营、外资股东背景的企业及市场化机制较优的国企在扩产期 ...
海外水泥专题:海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-07-08 02:54
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the cement industry, indicating a significant expansion of overseas production capacity from 45.03 million tons in 2021 to 87.59 million tons by 2024, with overseas cement business becoming a crucial part of profitability for some companies by 2023-2024 [3][7][25]. Core Insights - The period from 2021 to 2024 is identified as a rapid expansion phase for Chinese cement companies venturing overseas, with a potential differentiation in profitability expected post-2025 based on operational capabilities and site selection [2][3][6]. - The report emphasizes that the ability to convert high overseas cement prices into actual profitability remains a point of contention in the market, highlighting the importance of operational mechanisms and internal capabilities in determining success [3][8]. - Recommended stocks include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with Western Cement as a related stock [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Story - Post-2020, domestic cement companies are accelerating overseas capacity construction as domestic demand reaches a ceiling, with a focus on how overseas operations can enhance profit elasticity [6][24]. 2. Global Cement Overview - Cement demand growth is primarily driven by urbanization and population growth, with significant demand observed in regions like Southeast Asia and North Africa, characterized by a fragmented industry structure and intense price competition [10][13][20]. 3. Cement Going Overseas: Endowments and Internal Capabilities - The report notes that the expansion of overseas production capacity is led by companies with superior market mechanisms, with a focus on site selection as a critical internal capability for profitability [7][25][29]. 4. Dollar Resilience Eases, Overseas Profitability Expected to Improve - The report discusses the financial performance of Dangote Cement, highlighting that despite currency depreciation, the company maintains a relatively high profitability level compared to domestic averages [40][41]. - It also addresses the impact of foreign currency liabilities on profit margins, emphasizing the need for effective management to mitigate exchange rate risks [42][44]. 5. Financial Perspective - The report illustrates how exchange rate fluctuations can significantly affect profitability, particularly for companies with substantial foreign currency debt, and suggests that effective management of this exposure can enhance actual profitability [8][42][45].