证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 11 月 26 日 近期人民币为何全面走强？对 A 股有何影响？ ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（1126） 上周二级市场可跟踪资金净流入规模扩大，融资净流出但 ETF 逆势净流入，外 部美国经济数据及美联储官员密集鸽派表态下，美联储 12 月降息预期再度回 升，美元指数回落，我们构建的外资流出压力指标显示外资流出的压力已连续 5 个交易日缓解。往后看，在美联储降息预期和市场继续企稳回升背景下，外资成 交活跃度或有望回升。 定期报告 相关报告 1. 《招商 A 股流动性研究体系与 流动性指数——A 股市流动性研 究之四》，2016 年 8 月 2. 《A 股机构投资者全景图—股 票市场SCP范式研究之一》，2017 年 10 月 3. 《保险资金持续流入股票市场， 美联储降息不确定性增强——金 融市场流动性与监管动态周报 （1118）》 资料来源：Wind，招商证券 | 招商 A 股流动性指数 | | | --- | --- | | 流动性指标 | 数值/金额（亿 元） | | 资金供给 | | | 公募基金发行 | 139.99↑ | | ETF 净申购 | 49 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong Stock Exchange is exploring a plan to lower the threshold for investors to purchase high-priced stocks, aiming to stimulate trading activity [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant adjustment recently, with 37 stocks priced over HKD 100 per share, including notable companies like Tencent and BYD [2] - The minimum trading unit for stocks varies from 100 shares to several thousand, depending on the company [2] - A reduction in the purchase threshold for high-priced stocks could enhance trading activity and positively impact the short-term performance of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - According to Tianfeng Securities, the market breadth of the Hang Seng Index has improved, with the percentage of stocks above the 20-day moving average rising from 22.9% to 90.4% [3] - However, the current market rally lacks broad participation, with only two sectors, Information Technology (+34.7%) and Consumer Discretionary (+32.1%), outperforming the Hang Seng Index [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index's rolling 10-day trading volume once exceeded 40%, indicating a concentration of capital in a few sectors and potential overheating [3] Group 3: Fund Flows - Hedge funds saw significant inflows into Chinese equity assets in early February, but subsequently reduced their holdings over the following weeks, indicating volatility in trading [4] - Domestic capital has played a stabilizing role in the Hong Kong market, with cumulative net inflows from southbound trading exceeding HKD 4 trillion since the launch of the Hong Kong Stock Connect [4] - The allocation of southbound funds shows a "dumbbell" strategy, investing in both high-growth assets and high-dividend stocks for risk hedging [4] Group 4: Foreign Investment Sentiment - Foreign investment banks maintain a positive outlook on the Hong Kong market, noting its strength despite external market fluctuations [5] - A shift in global capital flows is observed, with a trend moving away from U.S. assets due to concerns over tariffs and economic downturns, benefiting markets in Europe and Asia [6] - The current market environment may lead to a concentration in technology growth stocks as the market adjusts [6]