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国金证券:给予赛维时代买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-04-28 00:39
Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Saiwei Times (301381) has shown impressive revenue growth, but profitability is under pressure due to increased investment in new product promotions and adjustments in pricing strategies [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 1.0275 billion and 214 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.55% and a decrease of 36.19% respectively [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 347.4 million and 19 million yuan, showing an increase of 58.66% and a significant decline of 83.46% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 245.8 million, 47 million, and 41 million yuan, representing increases of 36.65% and declines of 45.35% and 42.32% respectively [1]. Business Analysis - Revenue from apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services for 2024 was 744.7 million, 232.4 million, and 45.5 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.43%, 33.85%, and 261.49% respectively [2]. - The top five brands achieved revenues of 218.9 million, 208.2 million, 87.5 million, 56 million, and 33.8 million yuan, with growth rates of 50.42%, 61.87%, 39%, 145.66%, and 86.5% respectively [2]. - Revenue by region for 2024 was 900.7 million, 70.3 million, 2.3 million, and 2.3 million yuan from North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions, with growth rates of 53.40%, 40.87%, 12.27%, and 128.86% respectively [2]. - Revenue from channels such as Amazon, Walmart, Temu, and TikTok was 839.4 million, 38.6 million, 26.5 million, and 14.9 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.47%, 44.63%, 6503.07%, and 10453.93% respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 43.4%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to Amazon's commission adjustments and the introduction of a low-price mall [3]. - The gross margins for apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services decreased by 2.23, 0.21, and 7.96 percentage points respectively [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs were 35.67%, 3.69%, and -0.28%, with an increase in sales expense ratio attributed to enhanced brand marketing and rising labor costs [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.63, 0.84, and 1.1 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 33, 24, and 19 times [4].