证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 08 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 自有品牌及品牌管理保持高增长，展现强品 牌孵化能力 [Table_Title2] 若羽臣(003010) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 增持 | 股票代码： | 003010 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价： | 82.5/10.9 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿) | 132.27 | | 最新收盘价： | 60.49 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 95.77 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 158.32 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述： 公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年公司实现营业收入 13.19 亿元，同比增长 67.55%，实现归母净利润 0.72 亿元，同比增长 85.6%；单 Q2 公司实现营业收入 7.45 亿元，同比增长 79.57%，实现归母净利润 0.45 亿 元，同比增长 71.72%。 分析判断: ► 自有品牌及品牌管理业务保持高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese cosmetics industry is undergoing a critical transition from scale expansion to brand elevation, highlighted by the launch of the "PRIME Brand Incubation Model" at the China Fragrance and Cosmetics Brand Development Conference on July 1 [2][28]. Group 1: PRIME Model Overview - The "PRIME Brand Incubation Model" is a multi-dimensional dynamic empowerment system designed to assist enterprises in their evolution from startup to growth phases [5][27]. - The model consists of five core elements: Platform Support (P), Resource Integration (R), Innovation Drive (I), Market Validation (M), and Ecosystem Empowerment (E), expressed in the formula: BEC = P × R × I × M × E [5][21]. Group 2: Five Core Elements - **Platform Support**: Serves as the foundation of the PRIME model, facilitating resource flow through a comprehensive infrastructure system that includes physical spaces, functional modules, and digital systems [6][11]. - **Resource Integration**: Focuses on creating a "dynamic integration engine" that transforms scattered resources into systematic capabilities, avoiding vicious competition while achieving value upgrades [10][13]. - **Innovation Drive**: Acts as a catalyst for brand value enhancement and incubation power, exemplified by the South Shanghai Innovation Center, which accelerates the application of cutting-edge technologies [13][15]. - **Market Validation**: Ensures that other elements remain relevant to actual market demands, establishing a mechanism that captures market demand changes in real-time [14][15]. - **Ecosystem Empowerment**: Functions as a multiplier, enhancing overall effectiveness through a stable circular mechanism that considers multiple dimensions [15][16]. Group 3: Model Implications and Achievements - The PRIME model has demonstrated significant effectiveness, with brand value in the Eastern Beauty Valley increasing by 312% over five years, validating the model as an effective market mechanism [17][24]. - The model is built on a scientific process design and introduces a quantifiable standard system, showcasing its practicality and adaptability [19][24]. - The Eastern Beauty Valley has established a complete industrial chain and strong R&D capabilities, with 49 cosmetics companies having independent R&D centers and over 1,000 patents granted [30][32]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - The launch of the PRIME model signifies a new phase for the Eastern Beauty Valley and Fengxian District, focusing on high-quality brand incubation and innovation-driven development [34][28]. - The model represents a shift in the industry from "land dividends" to "brand empowerment," redefining the essence of investment attraction and industrial cultivation [24][34]. - The Eastern Beauty Valley serves as a representative case for the transformation of the beauty and health industry in China, with its brand value reaching 33.878 billion yuan by 2023 [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent financial report of Saiwei Times (301381) indicates a significant increase in revenue but a notable decline in net profit, prompting the company to reassess its non-apparel categories and optimize marketing strategies for better efficiency [2][3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.458 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.65% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.0261 million yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 45.35% [2]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 40.5473 million yuan, down 42.32% year-on-year [2]. Business Strategy - The company plans to conduct a systematic evaluation of its non-apparel categories due to severe losses caused by market demand fluctuations and intensified competition [2]. - In 2024, sales expenses increased by 37.56% as the company intensified marketing efforts to enhance market share [2]. - The company aims to optimize its marketing strategy in 2025 by leveraging previous promotional results and utilizing data analysis to improve targeting and resource allocation [2]. Cost Management - Management expenses rose by 34.85% in 2024 due to business expansion and the implementation of an employee stock incentive plan [3]. - The increase in management expenses is significantly lower than revenue growth, indicating effective cost control [3]. - The company plans to dynamically adjust personnel configurations based on business line developments and strengthen cost management [3]. Market Expansion - Saiwei Times has achieved remarkable success in the European market, with its apparel business doubling in growth in 2024 [3]. - The company intends to continue investing in the European market while leveraging successful brands from North America to strengthen its market position [3]. Brand Incubation - The company has successfully incubated two brands with annual sales exceeding one billion yuan and several others with sales over 100 million yuan [4]. - It has established strong competitive barriers in product development, procurement, production, and logistics, enhancing selection accuracy and reducing inventory risks [4]. - Future plans include empowering new brand incubation with foundational capabilities and operational experience to increase market share and brand premium in niche areas [4]. Supply Chain Development - Saiwei Times is actively advancing its overseas supply chain, with a factory in Vietnam already operational [4]. - The company aims to enhance production capacity utilization and gradually shift core style production to its overseas supply chain [4]. - This supply chain strategy is expected to improve stability and flexibility, supporting sustainable growth in a complex trade environment [5].

Group 1: Company Listings and Performance - Hu Shang A Yi, a tea beverage company, went public in Hong Kong on May 8, raising approximately HKD 270 million with a final share price of HKD 158.4, giving it a market capitalization of HKD 16.6 billion [2] - As of the end of 2024, Hu Shang A Yi reported a revenue of CNY 3.285 billion, a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, and a net profit of CNY 329 million, down 15.2% [2] - Skechers announced its acquisition by 3G Capital for over USD 9 billion at USD 63 per share, with the deal expected to close in Q3 2023 [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Challenges - Hu Shang A Yi faces challenges with declining operational efficiency and saturation in store growth, with a 20.6% decrease in new franchise stores and a 178% increase in store closures in the first half of 2024 [2] - Skechers' strategic shift to privatization is seen as a move to escape the constraints of public financial disclosures amid uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies affecting its cost structure and profit margins [5] - The baking industry, which Hu Shang A Yi is entering, is characterized by high competition and the need for product innovation and operational capabilities to succeed [7] Group 3: Brand Developments and New Ventures - Haidilao launched a bakery brand "SCHWASUA" in Hangzhou, focusing on low-priced products, as part of its "Pomegranate Plan" to incubate new independent brands [6] - Aesop's first store in China closed after two and a half years, reflecting challenges in balancing brand positioning and local market operations [18] - Lucky Coffee has surpassed 5,400 stores nationwide, with significant sales performance during the May Day holiday, indicating strong growth in the coffee shop sector [19]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Saiwei Times (301381) has shown impressive revenue growth, but profitability is under pressure due to increased investment in new product promotions and adjustments in pricing strategies [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue and net profit of 1.0275 billion and 214 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 56.55% and a decrease of 36.19% respectively [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue and net profit were 347.4 million and 19 million yuan, showing an increase of 58.66% and a significant decline of 83.46% [1]. - For Q1 2025, revenue, net profit, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 245.8 million, 47 million, and 41 million yuan, representing increases of 36.65% and declines of 45.35% and 42.32% respectively [1]. Business Analysis - Revenue from apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services for 2024 was 744.7 million, 232.4 million, and 45.5 million yuan, with growth rates of 59.43%, 33.85%, and 261.49% respectively [2]. - The top five brands achieved revenues of 218.9 million, 208.2 million, 87.5 million, 56 million, and 33.8 million yuan, with growth rates of 50.42%, 61.87%, 39%, 145.66%, and 86.5% respectively [2]. - Revenue by region for 2024 was 900.7 million, 70.3 million, 2.3 million, and 2.3 million yuan from North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions, with growth rates of 53.40%, 40.87%, 12.27%, and 128.86% respectively [2]. - Revenue from channels such as Amazon, Walmart, Temu, and TikTok was 839.4 million, 38.6 million, 26.5 million, and 14.9 million yuan, with growth rates of 45.47%, 44.63%, 6503.07%, and 10453.93% respectively [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 43.4%, a decrease of 2.07 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to Amazon's commission adjustments and the introduction of a low-price mall [3]. - The gross margins for apparel and accessories, non-apparel and accessories, and logistics services decreased by 2.23, 0.21, and 7.96 percentage points respectively [3]. - The expense ratios for sales, management, and financial costs were 35.67%, 3.69%, and -0.28%, with an increase in sales expense ratio attributed to enhanced brand marketing and rising labor costs [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 0.63, 0.84, and 1.1 yuan, with current stock prices corresponding to PE ratios of 33, 24, and 19 times [4].