海通国际发表研报指，中国旺旺已成为全国闻名的食品饮料龙头企业，业务范围覆盖米果、乳饮料、休 闲食品等多个赛道。该行预计国旺旺2025财年至2027财年营收分别为240.5亿、246.5亿、252.7亿元，分 别按年增长2.3%、2.5%、2.5%；归母净利润分别为41.7亿、44.1亿、46.1亿元，分别按年下降3.8%、增 长5.7%、增长4.6%，对应每股盈利分别为0.35元、0.37元、0.39元。该行首次覆盖中国旺旺，给予"优于 大市"评级，参考可比公司估值，给予公司2025财年15倍市盈率，对应目标价为5.76港元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue showed stable growth in the first half of FY25, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while sales experienced nearly double-digit growth. However, profit margins were temporarily pressured due to rising raw material costs and increased expenses from organizational optimization [10][11]. - The forecasted EPS for FY25-27 is RMB 0.34, 0.38, and 0.41 respectively, with a target price set at RMB 6.12 per share, equivalent to HKD 6.73 at an exchange rate of 0.91 [4][9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for FY23A was RMB 23,924.37 million, with a slight decrease of 0.3% expected in FY24A. Revenue is projected to grow by 1.7% in FY25E, 3.7% in FY26E, and 2.7% in FY27E [3]. - Gross profit for FY23A was RMB 10,990.92 million, with a forecasted gross profit margin decrease of 1.1 percentage points due to rising costs of imported whole milk powder and palm oil [10]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders for FY23A was RMB 3,990.47 million, with a projected decrease of 7.1% in FY25E, followed by growth of 12.1% in FY26E and 8.1% in FY27E [3][4]. Product Performance - Dairy beverage revenue declined by 1.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a slight drop in Wangzai Milk sales, while other beverage categories grew nearly 40%. The gross profit margin for dairy beverages decreased by 2.5 percentage points [11]. - Rice crackers saw a revenue increase of 3.5% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin increase of 1.3 percentage points, driven by strong growth in emerging channels [11]. - Snack food revenue increased by 7.7% year-on-year, with ice cream and candy categories showing positive growth trends [12]. Market Channels - Snack wholesale and emerging channels performed exceptionally well, with snack wholesale revenue growing significantly and accounting for about 15% of total group revenue. Emerging channels also saw double-digit growth, contributing over 10% to total revenue [12]. - The overseas market continued to show positive trends, with revenue growth in regions such as Japan, India, and Africa [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Jefferies indicates a 4% reduction in the target price for Want Want China (00151) from HKD 5.71 to HKD 5.48, maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The earnings forecasts for fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been lowered by 9%, 5%, and 1% respectively due to anticipated increases in sales and administrative expense ratios in the second half of fiscal 2026 [1][2]. Group 1 - The sales, general, and administrative expense ratio for the half-year period ending September increased by 2.2 percentage points to 28.8%, with the distribution expense ratio rising by 1.4 percentage points due to increased advertising and promotional investments, including cross-industry and co-branding projects [1]. - The administrative expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points, attributed to organizational restructuring that led to higher employee costs [1]. - The company has decided not to distribute an interim dividend to maintain operational flexibility [1]. Group 2 - For the outlook of the second half of fiscal 2026, management indicated that progress in October and November (third quarter) is slightly lagging compared to the same period last year, particularly due to the shift of gift box products to the February Spring Festival period [2]. - Strong growth is expected in emerging channels and snack specialty stores in the second half, while traditional and modern channels may continue to face pressure [2]. - The company aims to drive growth in rice snacks and snack products in the second half while striving to catch up in the dairy and beverage sectors [2].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has lowered the target price for Want Want China (00151) by 4% from HKD 5.71 to HKD 5.48, maintaining a "Neutral" rating, while also reducing earnings forecasts for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 9%, 5%, and 1% respectively due to expected increases in sales and administrative expense ratios in the second half of fiscal 2026 [1] Group 1 - The sales, general, and administrative expense ratio for the half-year period ending September 30 increased by 2.2 percentage points to 28.8%, with the distribution expense ratio rising by 1.4 percentage points due to increased advertising and promotional investments, including cross-industry and co-branding projects [1] - The administrative expense ratio increased by 0.9 percentage points due to organizational restructuring, which led to higher employee costs [1] - The company has decided not to declare an interim dividend to maintain operational flexibility [1] Group 2 - For the outlook of the second half of fiscal 2026, management indicated that progress in October and November (third fiscal quarter) is slightly lagging compared to the same period last year, particularly due to the impact of the Spring Festival on gift box products [2] - Management expects strong growth in emerging channels and snack specialty stores in the second half, while traditional and modern channels may continue to face pressure [2] - The company aims to drive growth in rice snacks and snack products in the second half while striving to catch up in the dairy and beverage sectors [2]

Financial Performance - The company's revenue increased by 2.1% year-over-year, reaching RMB 11,108 million in 1H FY25 compared to RMB 10,877 million in 1H FY24[5] - Gross profit margin decreased by 110 basis points from 47.3% in 1H FY24 to 46.2% in 1H FY25, influenced by increased costs of whole milk powder and product mix[5] - Operating profit decreased by 11.0% from RMB 2,541 million in 1H FY24 to RMB 2,261 million in 1H FY25[5] - Profit attributable to owners of the company decreased by 7.8% from RMB 1,863 million in 1H FY24 to RMB 1,717 million in 1H FY25, with an income tax rate of 23.0%[5] Revenue Breakdown by Product Category - Rice crackers revenue increased to RMB 2,130 million in 1H FY25 from RMB 2,057 million in 1H FY24[11], with sales volume up by mid-single digits[14] - Dairy and beverage revenue decreased slightly to RMB 5,941 million in 1H FY25 from RMB 6,009 million in 1H FY24[15], while beverage sales doubled[15] - Snack food revenue increased to RMB 2,940 million in 1H FY25 from RMB 2,731 million in 1H FY24[16], with ice product sub-category increasing by mid-double digits[34] Channel Performance - Emerging channels and snack food retail channels experienced high-speed growth[5, 14, 15, 16, 33, 34] - Snack food retail channels account for approximately 15% of the group's revenue[37] - Emerging channels account for over 10% of the group's revenue[37] - Overseas market revenue increased by low-single digits and accounts for high-single digits of the group's revenue[37] Expenses and Working Capital - Operating expenses increased by 10.6% from RMB 2,894 million in 1H FY24 to RMB 3,202 million in 1H FY25, driven by increased A&P expenses[5, 18] - Distribution costs increased from RMB 1,369 million in 1H FY24 to RMB 1,550 million in 1H FY25[21], with distribution costs accounting for 14.0% of revenue in 1H FY25, up from 12.6% in 1H FY24[19] - Inventory increased from RMB 2,576 million on March 31, 2025, to RMB 2,748 million on September 30, 2025[26], with inventory turnover days increasing from 74 to 80 days[25]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to continue expanding its profitability in FY24, driven by internal organizational reforms and strong momentum in emerging channels and overseas markets [1] Financial Performance - For FY24, the company's revenue decreased by 0.32% year-on-year, primarily due to the underperformance of ice cream and rice snacks [2] - Gross margin increased by 0.99 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to lower costs of raw materials and packaging [2] - The net profit margin improved by 1.52 percentage points to 18.41%, with net profit increasing by 8.67% year-on-year [2] - The dividend payout ratio for FY24 was 39.8%, significantly lower than the average level from FY21 to FY23 [2] Product Performance - Dairy beverages saw a revenue increase of 1.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 1.2 percentage points, showing a clear recovery in the second half of the fiscal year [2] - Rice snacks experienced a revenue decline of 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points, mainly due to the impact of gift packages and changes in product structure [2] - Snack food revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, but gross margin increased by 0.5 percentage points, with ice cream showing a decline in the first half but achieving rapid growth in the second half [2] Organizational Changes and Market Strategy - In the second half of FY24, the company initiated internal organizational reforms, establishing product-specific divisions to enhance channel collaboration and manage domestic and international operations [3] - The company deepened cooperation with leading snack retailers, with revenue from snack retailers accounting for about 10% [3] - Emerging channels experienced double-digit growth year-on-year, with revenue contribution approaching 10% [3] - Overseas revenue grew by double digits year-on-year, with significant growth in markets such as Japan, North America, and parts of Southeast Asia [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Wangwang (0151) [2][6] Core Views - The company's FY24 profitability continues to expand, with internal organizational reforms initiated in the second half of the fiscal year to enhance channel development, particularly in emerging and overseas markets [2][6] - The revenue for FY24 is projected to decrease by 1.7% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in ice cream and rice snacks, while gross profit margin is expected to increase by 0.99 percentage points due to lower costs of raw materials and packaging [6][5] - The net profit for FY24 is forecasted to grow by 8.6% year-on-year, with a net profit margin increase of 1.52 percentage points to 18.41% [6][5] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million RMB): FY2022: 23,327.17, FY2023: 23,924.37, FY2024: 23,510.74 [5] - Gross Profit (in million RMB): FY2022: 10,071.03, FY2023: 10,990.92, FY2024: 11,189.20 [5] - Net Profit (in million RMB): FY2022: 3,371.58, FY2023: 3,990.47, FY2024: 4,335.57 [5] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 13.35 for FY2024 and decrease to 12.08 by FY2027 [5][6] - The target price is set at HKD 7.02 per share, equivalent to RMB 7.71 per share based on the exchange rate of 0.91 [6] Product Performance - Dairy beverage revenue is expected to grow by 1.3% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points [6] - Rice snacks revenue is projected to decline by 1.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin decrease of 1.9 percentage points [6] - Ice cream revenue showed a decline in the first half of FY24 but is expected to achieve rapid growth in the second half [6] Organizational Changes - The company has initiated internal organizational reforms in FY24, establishing product-based divisions to enhance channel collaboration and manage domestic and international operations [6] - Emerging channels are expected to grow at a double-digit rate, contributing significantly to revenue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported FY2024 results that met market expectations, with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in a weak demand environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue was 23.51 billion, down 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 4.34 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year [1]. - In 2HFY24, revenue reached 12.63 billion, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year, and net profit was 2.47 billion, up 9.5% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point year-on-year, benefiting from lower raw material prices [2]. - The net profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points to 18.4% due to reduced financial expenses and effective tax rate [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Revenue performance by category for FY2024 showed declines in rice snacks (-1.2%) and leisure products (-2.6%), while dairy products saw a slight increase (+1.3%) [1]. - The company achieved low single-digit growth in revenue for rice snacks, driven by the launch of sub-brands [1]. - Emerging channels and overseas markets contributed to double-digit revenue growth, with sales from the snack wholesale channel increasing to approximately 10% of total sales [1]. Future Outlook - For FY2025, revenue is expected to grow steadily, with profit margins likely to remain stable [2]. - The company has implemented organizational changes to enhance marketing strategies and expand channels, which may positively impact future performance [2]. - The company anticipates stable growth across various product categories, supported by inventory management and reduced promotional spending [2]. Valuation and Estimates - The company is trading at 12.8/12.0 times FY2025/2026 P/E ratios [3]. - FY2025 profit forecast has been raised by 5.2% to 4.5 billion, with FY2026 forecast introduced at 4.7 billion [3]. - The target price has been increased by 10% to 5.8 HKD, reflecting an upward valuation trend [3].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - China Wangwang (00151.HK) reported a slight decline in revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, but showed growth in gross profit and net profit attributable to equity holders, indicating resilience in its operations despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 23.511 billion, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year - Gross profit reached RMB 11.189 billion, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year - Operating profit was RMB 5.837 billion, reflecting a growth of 4.1% year-on-year - Net profit attributable to equity holders was RMB 4.336 billion, up 8.6% year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at RMB 0.3671 [1][2]. Product Performance - Revenue decline was primarily due to adverse weather and market conditions affecting the ice cream and rice snacks categories, which saw low double-digit and high single-digit declines respectively - The company implemented internal organizational changes in the second half of fiscal 2024, leading to a low single-digit revenue recovery compared to the previous year - Dairy and beverage categories achieved mid-single-digit growth, while the ice cream category experienced over 20% recovery growth [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its market presence, with new products launched in the past five years contributing to double-digit revenue proportions in fiscal 2024 - Emerging channels such as OEM and overseas markets showed double-digit growth, continuing to be significant growth drivers for the company [1][2]. Cost Management - The gross margin increased by 1.0 percentage points to 47.6%, aided by a decrease in the unit costs of major raw materials and packaging - Effective control of overall operating expenses and a reduction in financing costs contributed to the profit growth, with the profit margin for equity holders rising by 1.5 percentage points to 18.4% [2].