多元资产策略
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【大行报告】惠理基金:全球风险资产估值高位且现“FOMO”现象
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-22 11:58
Group 1: Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's restart of the rate-cutting cycle has provided strong upward momentum for global markets, particularly benefiting risk assets in the short term. However, most asset markets are now significantly overvalued, especially in AI-related stocks, with investors exhibiting a "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO) mentality rather than worrying about high valuations [1][3]. - For the Chinese stock market, a clear recovery in corporate earnings is necessary to sustain the upward momentum in both Hong Kong and A-shares [1][3]. - In other Asian markets, South Korea and Taiwan have seen recent gains driven by strong tech exports and AI product demand, but high valuations may lead to short-term consolidation [1][3][7]. Group 2: Fixed Income and Commodities - Asian credit spreads have narrowed significantly, limiting further price increases in bonds, while the attractiveness of high-yield bonds has also declined [2][10][11]. - Gold prices have surpassed the $4,000 level, supported by global political uncertainties and central banks increasing their gold reserves [2][13]. - The multi-asset strategy is viewed as a suitable option to navigate volatile market conditions, emphasizing stable income sources as key drivers of investment returns [2][15]. Group 3: Regional Stock Insights - In the Chinese A-share market, retail investor interest is rising, with a shift from bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, although foreign institutional investors remain underweight in the Chinese market [5][6]. - The Japanese stock market is influenced by the new Prime Minister's expected continuation of loose monetary policies, but rising local bond yields may limit upward potential [9]. Group 4: Emerging Markets - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a primary risk factor for emerging markets, but strong commodity prices and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide some support [8][12].
“存款搬家”新路径曝光→
第一财经· 2025-10-10 03:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3900 points, has led to increased activity in the bank wealth management market, particularly in "fixed income +" products as banks adapt to the market's opportunities and challenges [3][4]. Market Performance - The three major stock indices collectively rose on October 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3933.97 points, up 1.32%, marking a ten-year high. The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.73%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,718 billion yuan, an increase of 4,746 billion yuan from the previous trading day [3][4]. Wealth Management Product Trends - The performance of bank wealth management "fixed income +" products has closely followed the equity market trends. As of the end of September, the scale of mixed products increased from 6,470.76 billion yuan at the end of June to 6,548.11 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 77 billion yuan [5]. - Analysts expect that the allocation of wealth management funds to equities could exceed 100 billion yuan in the second half of the year and throughout 2026, driven by an increase in the issuance of mixed and "fixed income +" products [5]. Investment Strategies - Banks are employing various strategies to participate in equity asset allocation, with a focus on sectors such as technology, manufacturing, gold, and dividend stocks, which have shown strong performance [5][6]. - The issuance of rights-based wealth management products has significantly increased, with 12 equity products launched this year compared to only 2 last year, and 202 mixed products compared to 169 last year [6]. Risk Management - Risk management has become a core focus for wealth management companies in their "fixed income +" product strategies. Companies are utilizing absolute return strategies and multi-asset strategies to mitigate risks while aiming for stable returns [8]. - The outlook for stocks, bonds, and gold remains optimistic, with expectations for significant investment returns in a low inflation and loose liquidity environment [9]. Future Directions - The future of "fixed income +" products may include a focus on public REITs, with projections indicating that the total market value of public REITs in China could exceed 200 billion yuan by 2025, with a potential market size of 400 billion to 500 billion yuan [9].
科创50指数单日涨幅超5%,银行固收+成为存款搬家新路径
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 12:40
预计下半年及2026年全年,理财资金增配权益的规模有望超过千亿元。 随着A股近期持续走强,沪指突破3900点,科创50指数单日涨幅超过5%,银行理财市场也随之活跃。 10月9日,三大股指集体收涨。沪指报3933.97点,涨1.32%,创逾十年新高;深成指涨1.47%,创业板指 涨0.73%。沪深京三市全天成交额达26718亿元,较前一交易日放量4746亿元。 与此同时,国际金价保持4000美元/盎司高位,投资者对资产配置的关注进一步提升。在此背景下,多 家银行理财子公司加快"固收+"产品调整步伐,布局多元化策略,以应对市场火热带来的机遇与挑战。 权益市场回暖推动固收+产品活跃 今年以来,银行理财固收+产品的收益表现与权益市场走势密切相关。普益标准数据显示,今年三季度 混合类产品规模从6月底的6470.76亿元增至9月底的6548.11亿元,实现77亿元增长。 中泰证券银行业分析师戴志锋指出,理财产品通过直接投资股票的规模处于五年低点,但通过基金间接 投资权益市场的规模创五年新高,固收+产品在间接权益布局上潜力仍大。他预计,随着混合类、固收 +产品发行量上升,下半年及2026年全年,理财资金增配权益的规模有望超 ...