1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of supply disruptions in the new energy metals market is fluctuating, leading to wide - ranging price oscillations. In the short and medium term, rising costs support prices, while supply expectation fluctuations and capital games amplify price volatility. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, potentially raising the price level, while the increasing supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, supply is continuously increasing, capping the upside of silicon prices. For polysilicon, the expectation of policy implementation is rising, causing prices to rebound. For lithium carbonate, the unexpected surge in supply is pressuring prices [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply is continuously rising, restricting the upside of silicon prices. The short - term price will continue to fluctuate due to macro sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale restarts occur, prices may be suppressed [6][7]. - **Information Analysis**: As of September 1st, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The domestic inventory decreased by 0.3% month - on - month. In July 2025, the monthly output increased by 3.2% month - on - month but decreased by 30.6% year - on - year. The export volume in July increased by 8.3% month - on - month and 36.7% year - on - year. The domestic photovoltaic new installation in July decreased by 23.1% month - on - month and 47.6% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure mainly comes from the northwest. In September, the output in the southwest is expected to be stable, and the incremental supply will mainly come from large northwest plants. Demand shows some improvement, but the inventory and warehouse receipts are expected to accumulate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of policy implementation is rising, leading to a rebound in polysilicon prices. The anti - cut - throat competition policy significantly boosts prices, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, prices may reverse [7][10]. - **Information Analysis**: The transaction price of N - type re -投料 is stable. The number of warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange remains unchanged. In July, the export volume decreased by 3.92% month - on - month and 63.14% year - on - year, while the import volume increased by 5.11% month - on - month. The domestic photovoltaic new installation from January to July 2025 increased by 81% year - on - year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - cut - throat competition sentiment is rising, but the supply and demand situation still faces pressure. The demand may weaken in the future, and price volatility has increased [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The unexpected surge in supply is pressuring lithium prices. In the short term, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On September 1st, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.1%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The initial shock of the mine shutdown has passed, and the market is back to the stage of speculating on mine shutdowns. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to rise in September. The shortage is not obvious, and the market is focused on anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and potential disruptions [11]. 3.2 Market Monitoring The content only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under market monitoring, without specific information. 3.3 Commodity Index - On September 1st, 2025, the comprehensive index of the CITIC Futures Commodity Index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2212.10, - 0.02%), the Commodity 20 Index (2466.23, + 0.08%), and the Industrial Products Index (2227.31, - 0.73%). - The new energy commodity index on September 1st, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.94%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 6.66%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.57% [53][55].