投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 锂供应扰动延续，锂价继续领涨新能源金属 新能源观点：锂供应扰动延续，锂价继续领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：新能源金属交易逻辑如下，中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落 后产能，投资者对硅供应端收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动， 期货日报记者证实江西锂矿大厂停产，周二智利也传出碳酸锂生产线 生产事故，锂供应扰动提振价格，锂价领涨新能源金属。中短期来 看，供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化，这对新能源金属价格有支 撑，锂供应扰动有望短期推高锂价，需谨防锂价上极端风险，可继续 通过看涨期权押注锂价涨势；而工业硅和多晶硅现实供需端面临产能 产量高位，供需趋弱，硅价进一步涨势放缓，密切留意产业链动向。 中长期来看，若供应端无实质性收缩或者需求端无明显好转，硅价存 在回落压力；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，碳酸锂供应高增将限制锂价 上方高度。 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪起伏，硅价持续波动。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格宽幅波动。 碳酸锂观点：情绪有所消退，锂价尾盘回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [8] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating and bullish [12] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central Financial Conference emphasizes phased elimination of outdated production capacity, strengthening investors' expectations of supply contraction in the silicon market. Meanwhile, disruptions in domestic lithium supply, with major lithium mines in Jiangxi halting production, have increased the risk of supply disruptions and driven up lithium prices. In the short - to - medium term, expectations of supply contraction and rising costs support the prices of new energy metals. In the long term, if there is no substantial supply contraction or significant improvement in demand, silicon prices may decline, and high growth in lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of August 11, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory was 439,900 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The monthly output in July was 338,000 tons, a 3.2% increase from the previous month and a 30.6% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 2.21 million tons, a 20% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a 22.8% increase from the previous month and an 11.6% increase from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 340,705 tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In August, the supply pressure may further increase. Demand shows some improvement, but the increase in demand from the aluminum alloy sector is limited. With the continuous recovery of supply, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate [7] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silicon prices will continue to oscillate due to macro - sentiment and coal prices. The resumption of production by large enterprises will be crucial, and concentrated resumptions may further suppress prices [8] 2. Polysilicon - **Price and Trade**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feedstock was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a 0.21% increase from the previous week. The latest polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 4,700 lots, an increase of 1,080 lots from the previous value. In June, the export volume was about 2,222.65 tons, a 5.96% increase from the previous month and a 39.67% decrease from the same period last year. From January to June, the export volume was 11,389.98 tons, a 7.23% decrease from the same period last year. In June, the import volume was about 1,112.69 tons, a 40.3% increase from the previous month. From January to June, the import volume was 11,209.78 tons, a 47.59% decrease from the same period last year [8] - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomic factors and rising coal prices have led to wide - range fluctuations in polysilicon prices. Supply is expected to increase in August. In the long term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict supply. Demand may weaken in the second half of the year due to the high growth in the first half [11] - **Outlook**: Anti - cut - throat competition policies have significantly boosted polysilicon prices. The implementation of policies needs to be monitored, and if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse [12] 3. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Market**: On August 8, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 5.25% to 81,000 yuan, hitting the daily limit. The total open interest increased by 1,676 lots to 783,699 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,600 yuan to 74,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,500 yuan to 72,300 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,300 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 560 tons to 19,389 tons [12] - **Main Logic**: The production cut at Ningde Times' Jiaxiawo Mine has become the focus of market speculation. Fundamentally, production has rebounded, and the mine's shutdown will reduce weekly ore supply by over 2,000 tons of LCE. Demand is stable, and social inventory is slightly increasing. In the future, a significant supply - demand gap may emerge, but high prices may stimulate supply [12] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep prices oscillating and bullish [13]