Group 1 - The US government is considering multiple tariff proposals against China, with potential rates ranging from 50% to 100% depending on the classification of goods [3] - The International Monetary Fund has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, citing the negative impact of the tariff war on global trade and the multilateral trade system [3] - The US Treasury Secretary described the current situation as a trade embargo, indicating that negotiations for a comprehensive agreement with China have not yet begun [4] Group 2 - The US debt subscription rate has hit a historical low, with countries like China, Brazil, and Japan reducing their holdings of US debt, indicating a shift towards a multipolar currency system [6] - The imposition of high tariffs is expected to lead to reduced US import demand, which could shrink tariff revenue and increase inflation risks domestically [8] - The "America First" policy has severely damaged the credibility of the US, leading to significant protests and market volatility [8]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have continued their strong upward trend from 2024 into 2025, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce before experiencing significant volatility and fluctuations around $3300 [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - On April 28, 2025, the most actively traded June gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by 1.71%, closing at $3354.80 per ounce, driven by a return of risk aversion and declines in the stock market and the dollar index [3]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will enter a consolidation phase during the summer, with support around $3000 and a target price exceeding $3500 [8]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices and subsequent high-level fluctuations are primarily attributed to market reactions to uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies, particularly following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [5]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also acted as a catalyst for gold price increases, as Trump's public criticism of Fed Chair Powell has raised fears about potential impacts on monetary policy [5][6]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation has increased, especially as investor confidence in the dollar has weakened, leading to a shift away from traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [6][8]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between current market conditions and historical events, noting that gold prices have previously surged during periods of economic instability, such as the 1970s stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis [10][11]. - The dollar's dominance in global reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to 57% currently, indicating a structural shift in the global monetary system that favors gold as a credible alternative [11].