Group 1 - The core message indicates that the U.S. is actively negotiating with China regarding trade agreements, with President Trump suggesting an announcement could come soon [1][3][4] - Trump's statements reflect a shift towards a more conciliatory approach, suggesting that the U.S. is signaling a willingness to engage in discussions with China [4][6][7] - The Chinese government has indicated that it will not make concessions unless the U.S. shows sincerity in negotiations, highlighting a potential stalemate [3][19] Group 2 - The recent signals from Trump suggest a possible reduction in tariffs, as he acknowledges the negative impact of high tariffs on U.S.-China trade relations [7][9][11] - Economic data shows that the U.S. economy is facing challenges, with a reported GDP decline of 0.3% in the first quarter, raising concerns about the economic impact of the trade war [12][14] - The inflation rate in the U.S. is also a concern, with the core PCE price index rising to its highest level in a year, indicating potential economic strain [14][19] Group 3 - The future of U.S.-China trade relations remains uncertain, with both sides holding firm on their positions; the U.S. may not lower tariffs significantly, while China insists on reciprocal actions [17][21] - The Chinese government has made it clear that it will not yield to U.S. pressure and will continue to fight for its interests in the trade negotiations [19][21] - The overall sentiment suggests that while negotiations may occur, the underlying tensions and ideological differences between the two nations will complicate any potential agreements [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have continued their strong upward trend from 2024 into 2025, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce before experiencing significant volatility and fluctuations around $3300 [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - On April 28, 2025, the most actively traded June gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by 1.71%, closing at $3354.80 per ounce, driven by a return of risk aversion and declines in the stock market and the dollar index [3]. - Analysts predict that gold prices will enter a consolidation phase during the summer, with support around $3000 and a target price exceeding $3500 [8]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices and subsequent high-level fluctuations are primarily attributed to market reactions to uncertainties surrounding U.S. government policies, particularly following President Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [5]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have also acted as a catalyst for gold price increases, as Trump's public criticism of Fed Chair Powell has raised fears about potential impacts on monetary policy [5][6]. - The demand for gold as a hedge against inflation has increased, especially as investor confidence in the dollar has weakened, leading to a shift away from traditional safe-haven assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [6][8]. Historical Context - The article draws parallels between current market conditions and historical events, noting that gold prices have previously surged during periods of economic instability, such as the 1970s stagflation and the 2008 financial crisis [10][11]. - The dollar's dominance in global reserves has declined from 70% in 2000 to 57% currently, indicating a structural shift in the global monetary system that favors gold as a credible alternative [11].