1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The resumption of VAT on the interest income of new - issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds after August 8, 2025, may lead to a "long old bonds, short new bonds" strategy in the market. The mid - term trend of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish, and the basis difference will fluctuate bidirectionally to a reasonable range. The inter - period spread may widen further, and the curve may steepen in the medium term. Credit bonds may be favored in the short - term, and the stratification of credit spreads will be more reasonable in the medium term, benefiting the real economy. The tax adjustment on interest - rate bonds indirectly benefits equity assets, but short - term discount expectations of underlying bond assets of some companies need attention [6]. - There is a large supply - demand gap for soybeans in China before the Spring Festival in 2026. Whether China purchases US soybeans or not, the cost of imported soybeans is difficult to decrease significantly, which will push up the prices of soybean products. It is recommended to buy soybean oil and soybean meal at low prices [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Treasury, Local, and Financial Bond Interest VAT Resumption - **Market Reaction**: After the policy was announced, the interest rate of 25 Attached - interest Treasury Bond 11 showed a "first up then down" trend, indicating that the market first understood the negative impact of the "tax increase" and then realized the value of "old bonds" [6]. - **Bond Market Strategy**: A "long old bonds, short new bonds" strategy may emerge. The CTD of active contracts and corresponding old bonds may have a short - term rally, but the medium - term trend is hard to change. The basis difference will gradually fluctuate bidirectionally from the low - level operation of the past two years to a reasonable range [6]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spread between the 09 and 12 contracts may widen further as the pricing will incorporate the tax difference between new and old bonds [7]. - **Curve Shape**: The curve may steepen in the medium term [7]. - **Bond Type Comparison**: Credit bonds may be favored in the short - term, and the stratification of credit spreads will be more reasonable in the medium term, attracting capital inflows to support the real economy. The tax adjustment on interest - rate bonds indirectly benefits equity assets, but short - term discount expectations of underlying bond assets of some companies such as banks and insurance need attention [7][9]. 3.2 Soybean and Its Products - **Supply - demand Situation**: There is a large supply - demand gap for soybeans in China before the Spring Festival in 2026. Whether China purchases US soybeans or not, the cost of imported soybeans is difficult to decrease significantly [10]. - **Price Forecast**: The low - price range of soybean meal is about 3050 yuan/ton, and the high - price range is about 3450 yuan/ton. The low - price range of soybean oil is about 8150 yuan/ton, and the high - price range is about 8650 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy soybean oil and soybean meal at low prices [10]. 3.3 Other Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Gold shows a weakening trend due to weak non - farm payroll data, and silver has fallen from a high level. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [13][16][21]. - **Base Metals**: Copper's spot premium is firm, limiting price declines, with a trend intensity of 0; zinc is oscillating downward, with a trend intensity of - 1; lead's inventory reduction limits price drops, with a trend intensity of 0; tin is oscillating within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1; aluminum's center of gravity is moving down, alumina is accumulating inventory, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of - 1 [13][23][26][29][31][36]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt have different trends. For example, fuel oil continues to decline, and asphalt is oscillating at a high level, with corresponding trend intensities [13][39][65]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is waiting to be bought at low levels, and corn is oscillating [13][15].