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东吴期货原油四季报:此消彼长,供应压力逐渐显现
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 11:29
——东吴期货原油四季报 姓名:肖彧 投资咨询证号:Z0016296 2025 年 9 月 26 日 2025 年度四季报-原油 此消彼长,供应压力逐渐显现 一、2025 年四季度展望 我们维持年报观点和半年报观点不变,全年油价趋于下跌。 尽管特朗普发动的关税战以及 OPEC+加速增产打乱了我们的预测步调,使得油价在比我们预期更 早的时候就大幅下行,而随后的伊以冲突又令油价再度大幅上行,我们仍然延续之前绝大部分思路。 我们在半年报时展望到,非 OPEC+供应在下半年开始显著上量叠加季节性旺季消费在三季度结束 将导致油市平衡在年底前逐渐打破,考虑到 OPEC+仍有可能加速增产、美国的滞胀困扰、贸易壁垒下 的全球经济逆风等额外利空因素,我们预计油市依然积重难返,布伦特原油价格有望在年底前再次向 下挑战 60 美元/桶。预计下半年油价波动范围 57-86 美元/桶,均价 67 美元/桶。 注:半年报发布当日布伦特油价在 75 美元/桶上方,彼时伊以冲突尚在升温,地缘不确定性使得预 测区间上沿偏高,但对未来的坚定看空使得均价预测低于预测区间的平均值。 我们认为四季度正是此消彼长之际,一方面供应仍在不断增加,而需求则从三 ...
原油周报:大供应叙事继续-20250912
Dong Wu Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 11:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil remains under the pressure of the large - supply narrative in the medium to long term. As supply continues to increase and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be pressured accordingly. Short - term interference factors mainly include Middle East geopolitical situations and potential sanctions against Russia. Next week, the Fed meeting needs attention [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's monthly report view: Crude oil is under long - term supply pressure. If OPEC+ continues to increase production at the Sunday meeting, combined with seasonal weakness in demand and US autumn maintenance, the supply - demand imbalance will be more obvious, and oil prices will be pressured. Short - term interference factors include OPEC+ meeting results, Russia - Ukraine peace talks progress, sanctions, and the Fed's September meeting decision. - This week's price trend: Oil prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to OPEC+'s less - than - expected production increase, Middle East geopolitics, and potential sanctions against Russia. However, oil prices turned down after institutional monthly reports maintained the large - supply narrative. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is continuously loose, terminal demand is okay, and the US is about to enter the autumn maintenance period (2.1 - 2.4). - Institutional monthly reports: IEA and EIA continue the large - supply narrative and predict a significant increase in inventory (2.5 - 2.8). - OPEC+: Still committed to competing for market share (2.9 - 2.12). - Fed's September meeting: The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut, but the focus is on the dot plot and economic forecasts (2.13) [9]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - **2.1 Global near - month spreads oscillated weakly**: Global main market Brent and WTI near - month spreads continued to decline, indicating a further slowdown in spot supply - demand, which is a relatively negative signal [11][13]. - **2.2 Crack spreads still have support**: Global spot prices generally still have support. US spot crack spreads oscillated, while those in Northwest Europe and Singapore increased slightly. Combining with 2.1, although terminal demand is okay, leading to stable or rebounding crack spreads in some regions, the supply increase is greater, causing the near - end spreads to weaken [14][15][16]. - **2.3 Fundamental quantitative indicators (beta version)**: The current comprehensive fundamental indicator of crude oil is negative, triggered from the close on 9/10 and lasting for 2 days. The forward - looking fundamental indicator is neutral, with the last signal being negative from 7/31 to 8/1 [19]. - **2.4 US inventory and demand situation**: As of September 5, the US refinery utilization rate increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 94.9%, indicating that traditional autumn maintenance has not fully started. All major crude oil product inventories increased this week, with gasoline inventory unexpectedly rising and distillate inventory rising far beyond expectations, driving a significant increase in the total inventory of the crude oil chain. Gasoline implied demand dropped to 850.8 million barrels per day, far lower than the previous level of around 9 million barrels per day. Distillate inventory increase is against the seasonal trend, which will suppress future refinery utilization rates and corresponding refining demand [21]. - **2.5 Main energy institutions' September report views summary**: IEA, OPEC, and EIA have different forecasts for demand and supply growth rates. IEA and EIA have continuously raised supply forecasts, and EIA predicts a significant decline in Brent crude oil prices in the next few months due to supply increases [22]. - **2.8 EIA monthly report balance sheet changes**: EIA comprehensively raised the supply and demand forecasts for the second half of this year and all quarters of next year, with a larger increase in the supply side, making the balance sheet looser month by month. The core driving logic is supply increase, and demand increase is a passive result of falling oil prices [30]. - **2.10 OPEC+ announced a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in October**: In the September 7 meeting, OPEC+ announced a gradual withdrawal from the 1.65 - million - barrel - per - day production cut agreement starting in October and a 137,000 - barrel - per - day production increase in that month. Except for Kazakhstan's continuous over - production, other countries have well - implemented the plan [36]. - **2.13 Attention to the Fed's September interest - rate meeting**: US employment data is weak, and inflation data is stubborn. The market has fully priced in a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25BP in September, but the subsequent rate - cut path depends on economic data and Fed independence. The number of preventive interest - rate cuts is determined by the employment market and overall economic performance, which is generally negative for crude oil, except when core inflation significantly declines [42]. - **2.14 North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA's forecast, this year's hurricane activity has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level but is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key Gulf of Mexico area in the next 7 days [44]. 3.3 Price, Spreads, and Crack Spreads - **3.1 Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Presented the trends of Brent, WTI, Oman, and SC crude oil futures and spot prices [47]. - **3.3 WTI crude oil position report**: Showed the net long positions of WTI futures and options and related position - price relationships [52]. - **3.4 Crude oil futures structure**: Displayed the futures price structures of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC [55]. - **3.5 Crude oil spreads**: Presented the spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC (M1 - M2, M1 - M3, etc.) [58]. - **3.6 Cross - market futures spreads**: Showed cross - market futures spreads such as Brent - WTI, Brent - Oman, etc. [60]. - **3.7 Cross - market spot spreads**: Presented cross - market spot spreads like Brent - WTI, Brent - Dubai, etc. [63]. - **3.8 American spot spreads**: Displayed American spot spreads such as Midland - Cushing, LLS - MARS, etc. [66]. - **3.9 Asian spot spreads**: Presented Asian spot spreads such as Tapis - Dubai, Tapis - Minas [69]. - **3.10 Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia announced a reduction in the October crude oil premium for all regions, with a reduction range of 0.6 - 1.0 US dollars per barrel, exceeding market expectations [39][70]. - **3.14 Refined product spot prices**: Showed the spot prices of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [80]. - **3.15 Refined product spot crack spreads**: Presented the spot crack spreads of refined products in the US Gulf, New York Harbor, Northwest Europe, and Singapore [83]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **4.1 Global crude oil total supply**: Presented the supply trends of global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil [96]. - **4.2 Non - OPEC crude oil total supply**: Showed the supply trends of non - OPEC countries such as the US, the former Soviet Union region, China, and Brazil [99]. - **4.3 OPEC crude oil total supply**: Displayed OPEC's crude oil production, capacity, and remaining capacity trends [102]. - **4.4 OPEC crude oil supply - major countries**: Showed the crude oil supply trends of major OPEC countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, and Kuwait [105]. - **4.5 OPEC crude oil supply - exempt countries**: Presented the crude oil supply trends of OPEC exempt countries such as Iran, Libya, and Venezuela [108]. - **4.6 Global rig count**: Showed the rig counts of the US, Canada, and the global total [111]. - **4.7 US crude oil rigs**: Displayed the US rig count, uncompleted well number, single - well new production, and oil - gas total production [113]. - **4.9 FCC unit outages**: Presented the FCC unit outage volumes globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [118]. - **4.11 OECD crude oil total demand**: Showed the demand trends of OECD countries such as the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan [122]. - **4.12 Non - OECD crude oil total demand**: Presented the demand trends of non - OECD countries such as China, Russia, India, and Brazil [125]. - **4.13 Crude oil total inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of the US, OECD, and global total inventory and consumption [128]. - **4.17 EIA balance sheet**: Presented the EIA's supply, consumption, balance, and balance change data from 2025Q3 to 2026Q4 [148]. - **4.19 Singapore refined product inventory**: Showed the inventory trends of light distillates, middle distillates, residue, and total refined products in Singapore [142].