宏观周周谈：全球财政思路的变化 20251214 摘要 当前全球经济面临通胀压力，各国政府杠杆率未显著上升，实际利率并 未被动走高，因此大幅降息空间受限。各国财政政策转向开源，通过提 高税收等方式支持财政扩张，以应对无法节流的困境。 美国政治光谱的摇摆对经济政策产生影响。共和党倾向于减税降息刺激 投资，而民主党则倾向于加税加息优化社会结构，实现共同富裕，并通 过二次分配增加对低收入群体的转移支付。 疫情后，各国普遍面临通胀压力，财政政策转向开源。英国扩大遗产税 征收范围，日本下调超级富豪定义标准以增加税收，表明全球财政思路 正从节流转向开源。 中国通过初次分配、二次分配和三次分配等多项措施实现共同富裕，包 括构建双循环、优化要素和人才分配，提高全要素生产率，以及提高消 费率推动经济发展。 中国债券市场在经历三年牛市后，恢复增值税并对黄金加税，预示未来 可能针对受益领域或群体增加税源或提高税率，对长期投资理念具有重 要参考价值。 Q&A 为什么当前全球财政和货币政策不会同时发力？ 当前全球财政和货币政策不会同时发力，主要原因在于经济周期和通胀水平的 变化。在经济衰退向复苏过渡时，宽财政和宽货币通常是为了逆周期调 ...

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]

Group 1 - The article discusses the evolving relationship between technology and government, highlighting the emergence of a "Tech-Industrial Complex" that prioritizes national interests over short-term profits [3][24] - The "Tech-Industrial Complex" aims to enhance national strength through technological innovation and industrial upgrades, contrasting with the traditional "Military-Industrial Complex" that relies on military intervention [4][5] - The article emphasizes the role of key figures like Elon Musk in shaping this new paradigm, advocating for a collaborative approach between the private sector and government to boost strategic industries [9][10][24] Group 2 - The article outlines the implications of "Technological Accelerationism," which seeks to improve U.S. competitiveness through private-public partnerships and innovation [9][26] - It highlights the potential for a global normative competition arising from differing approaches to technology regulation between the U.S. and China, with the U.S. favoring market openness and China emphasizing state control [26][27] - The article warns that the rise of "Technological Accelerationism" could lead to a new phase in U.S.-China relations, where both countries compete not only in technology but also in governance models that support technological advancement [28][29] Group 3 - The article discusses the potential impact of Musk's conservative international expansion on China, suggesting that it could weaken Western pressure on China while also posing risks from right-wing movements that may harbor anti-China sentiments [29][30] - It emphasizes the need for China to navigate this landscape carefully, leveraging opportunities while being cautious of potential threats from rising conservative forces in the West [30][31] - The article concludes that China should enhance communication with right-wing populist parties globally to stabilize bilateral relations and find new modes of interaction amid Western divisions [30][31]