证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 28 日 关注俄乌冲突外溢风险 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：俄乌冲突或局势升级；特朗普宣布新一轮产业关税；美方承诺不会 允许以色列吞并约旦河西岸。 未来一周：俄乌局势；中东和谈进程及伊朗核谈判进程；美国联邦政府面临 "关门"风险；美国新产业关税生效。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）俄乌冲突或面临升级和外溢风险。1）地缘紧张升级，乌克兰继续袭击俄 能源设施，俄限制部分柴油及汽油出口，本周布伦特原油上涨 4.2%， ICE 柴油上涨 3.5%。2）在近期波兰、爱沙尼亚等国声称俄罗斯无人 机、战机侵入领空的情况下，欧洲国家表示将打击俄战机，俄乌冲突面 临局势升级、范围扩大风险，但欧洲国家内部分歧或影响其实际行动力 度。3）本周特朗普称乌克兰在欧盟和北约支持下，其边界有望"恢复原 状"。相较于以往特朗普敦促乌克兰"接受现实"，特朗普此次表述呈 现出明显对乌克兰的支持。但我们认为这主要是由于特朗普失望于"普 特会"以来俄乌和谈缺乏进展，从实际行动上美方尚未 ...

Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 08 月 24 日 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）俄乌冲突：美国、乌克兰、欧洲多国及欧盟、北约领导人会晤于华盛 顿，讨论俄乌冲突问题；特朗普威胁若俄乌两周内未直接会晤，可能施 加"大规模制裁或关税"。在俄乌和谈不确定性持续的情况下，本周俄 罗斯 RTS 指数下跌 4.7%，布伦特油价上涨 1.7%。两周后若未取得突破 性进展，美国是否会对俄新一轮制裁，或取决于俄罗斯是否能让特朗普 相信俄方已有充分谈判诚意。和谈中乌克兰的安全保障议题或对世界影 响更深远，不仅牵涉到俄乌，更涉及俄美关系、美欧关系、俄欧关系， 是一种战后秩序的重新确立。 2）美国关税：美国与欧盟发表联合声明双方已就贸易协定框架达成一致； 加拿大宣布取消多项针对美国的报复性关税。 ❑ 未来一周关注： 1）8 月 31 日-9 月 1 日上合组织峰会，国家主席习近平将出席。 2）俄乌冲突：关注俄乌和谈进展，短期"边打边谈"或将持续。关注俄美 后续互动及大国关系变化。 3）美国关税：在美俄缓和情况下，关注美国与印度贸易 ...

Group 1: US-Russia Relations - The US-Russia summit in Alaska on August 15 resulted in progress but no formal agreement, with Trump temporarily suspending further sanctions against Russia[4] - The Russian RTS index rose by 10.7% in August, reflecting positive market sentiment following the summit[8] - The significance of the summit may outweigh the lack of a peace agreement, indicating a potential diplomatic victory for Russia[11] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - On August 12, the US and China announced a 90-day suspension of mutual 24% tariffs[12] - The US expanded the scope of 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, effective August 18, with potential semiconductor tariffs reaching 300% in the coming weeks[12] - Japanese and Vietnamese markets saw gains of 3.7% and 2.8% respectively, as tariff uncertainties decreased[14] Group 3: Future Outlook - Upcoming discussions between the US, Ukraine, and Europe will focus on a ceasefire timeline and security guarantees for Ukraine[17] - The US is expected to continue negotiations with India, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil regarding tariffs and trade agreements[18] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, may influence US foreign policy and trade strategies[20]

Group 1: US Tariff Policies - Trump announced a delay in the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, with tariffs on imports from 14 countries ranging from 25% to 40%[8] - A 50% tariff on imported copper and a potential high tariff on pharmaceuticals were threatened, with a 35% tariff on Canadian goods also announced[8] - Countries facing tariffs may see comprehensive tariffs of 15% to 20% if they have not yet received tariff notifications[8] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Trump approved additional defensive weapon shipments to Ukraine and is considering further sanctions against Russia, indicating a shift to a tougher stance on unresolved issues[4] - The EU's Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the need for economic rebalancing and "de-risking" in relations with China, highlighting a strategic shift in European diplomacy[14] - The upcoming August 1 deadline for trade negotiations may lead to a framework agreement, despite existing tensions and differing national interests among negotiating countries[12] Group 3: Market Implications - The ongoing high tariffs may serve as a tool to accelerate trade negotiations, but the long-term risks of these policies remain significant[12] - The US is focusing on strategic supply chains, with ongoing investigations into sectors like copper, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors under Section 232[17] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with potential for increased cooperation among non-US regions as they respond to US tariff pressures[16]

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam, while Vietnam maintains zero tariffs on U.S. goods[9] - New unilateral tariffs may range from 10% to 70%, with implementation expected around August 1[6] - The U.S. is conducting a 232 investigation into sectors like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, which began in April, indicating potential short-term tariff risks[15] Group 2: Political Developments - Trump's position within the Republican Party has strengthened following a series of political successes since June, including the signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court has supported Trump's executive powers, allowing him to pursue his policy agenda without significant judicial challenges[13] - The upcoming G20 finance ministers' meeting and the BRICS+ summit are critical events to monitor for international economic discussions[3] Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Israel-Palestine conflict and U.S.-Iran negotiations, with a focus on potential ceasefire outcomes and nuclear discussions[16] - The U.S. aims to rebalance its relations with major powers, particularly in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which presents significant negotiation challenges[18] - The potential for a framework agreement in trade negotiations exists, but countries may shift conflicts to third parties to achieve short-term wins[12]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Iran and Israel announced a ceasefire, with concerns about the potential for renewed military action if negotiations fail[5] - NATO summit agreed to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% for core defense and 1.5% for broader measures[10] - Ongoing U.S. trade negotiations with multiple countries, including China, Japan, and South Korea, with a focus on tariffs and trade barriers[13] Group 2: Trade and Economic Policies - U.S. tariffs on various goods remain a critical issue, with a focus on semiconductor and pharmaceutical investigations initiated in April[16] - The U.S. is considering extending tariff suspension for countries participating in trade negotiations until July 9[16] - The potential for a shift in U.S. trade policy towards more strategic protectionism, particularly in key supply chains[16] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include unexpected changes in U.S. policy and international relations, particularly regarding Iran and trade negotiations[4] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with a focus on balancing relations between major powers, including the U.S., Russia, and China[19] - Long-term uncertainties may arise from internal U.S. political dynamics affecting foreign policy and trade strategies[20]

Group 1: Recent Developments - On June 5, a call took place between the leaders of China and the U.S., where Trump emphasized the importance of U.S.-China relations and expressed willingness to work together on agreements reached in Geneva[7] - The U.S. is engaged in new trade negotiations with India and Japan, focusing on tariff discussions and market access[4] - A public dispute erupted between Trump and Musk, highlighting internal political divisions within the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Upcoming Events and Risks - The U.S.-China London talks are scheduled for June 9, with a focus on non-tariff issues and technology restrictions[13] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are expected to continue affecting U.S. foreign policy and diplomatic efforts[17] - Long-term risks include a potential rebalancing of major power relations, with U.S. trade policies increasingly focusing on strategic supply chains and key industries[19]

Group 1: Recent Developments - The call between Chinese and American leaders on June 5 emphasized the importance of US-China relations and successful trade talks in Geneva, with both sides agreeing to continue discussions[7] - The ongoing political struggle within the Trump administration is highlighted by the public dispute between Trump and Musk, reflecting deeper ideological divides[10] - New rounds of trade negotiations between the US and India, as well as Japan, are underway, focusing on tariff and non-tariff issues[4] Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming US-China talks in London on June 9 will involve key officials and may address non-tariff issues, indicating a shift in focus[13] - The US is expected to continue its judicial review of tariff policies, with significant implications for trade negotiations with Japan and India[15] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine, are likely to distract US diplomatic efforts and complicate trade discussions[17] Group 3: Long-term Risks - The report warns of potential shifts in US policy due to internal political dynamics and unexpected changes in international relations, which could impact market stability[3] - The rebalancing of major power relationships is anticipated, with a focus on strategic supply chains and key industries such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals[19] - The report suggests that if Trump fails to achieve satisfactory trade outcomes, more aggressive geopolitical stances may emerge, increasing market volatility[19]