——国际时政周评 回顾：美国暂缓芯片关税；俄乌和谈。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： ❑ 未来一周关注： 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1）美国暂缓对华芯片加征关税 18 个月。1）此次美国推迟对华芯片加征 关税，主要是试图稳定短期中美关系、管控摩擦幅度。2）在科技竞争 领域，美国的战略目的没有发生变化，但策略上可能将实行更加精准的 管制。此次美国推迟对华芯片加征关税，结合近期美国政府放宽对华芯 片出口政策，我们认为这不意味着美国在科技竞争上的战略目的发生变 化（即维持美国科技霸权和竞争优势），而是在试图维系一般贸易的同 时，施行更加精准的管控政策，而非全面围堵（因为这可能引起反效 果）。3）关注美国国内政治对大国关系可能的干扰。 2）俄乌和谈：边打边谈持续，领土等关键敏感问题仍待协商。领土方面， 目前乌方可能的方案包括：维持现状，"和平计划"签署之日的部队部 署线将被事实上承认为接触线，并由国际部队进行监督；在顿巴斯地区 建立潜在的"自由经济区"。安全保障上，乌克兰或以不加入北约承诺 （但要加入欧 ...

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Progress in US-Ukraine talks may lead to a security assurance agreement, with Ukraine potentially promising not to join NATO in exchange for a collective defense framework similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty[2] - Trump's administration has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, causing fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 3% on December 17 and decreasing by 1.8% over the week[12] - The US Congress has passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, increasing military spending to a record $901 billion, which is $8 billion more than the Trump administration's request[16] Group 2: Future Focus Areas - Continued attention on US-China trade relations, particularly regarding tariffs and strategic industries, including semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a focus on the potential for renewed conflict in Gaza and the status of Iran nuclear negotiations[18] - The US government's strategy aims to strengthen control over the Western Hemisphere, with a focus on countering leftist governments in Latin America and securing energy resources[14]

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]

——国际时政周评 回顾：中美经贸牵头人通话；特朗普 2.0 美国国家安全战略出台。 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 如何理解新版美国安全战略？ 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）特朗普政府 2025 年版《国家安全战略》出台。1）文件具有强烈的政 治议题导向，是特朗普 2.0 政府"美国优先"理念的总结。维持了特朗 普政府一贯的"敌在内部"的宣传思路，右翼民粹色彩浓厚。2）我们 认为美国并未进入全盘战略收缩，而是基于成本-收益考量的重新布 局。在当前面临霸权地位受挑战的情况下，文件认为美国需要重整战略 布局：一方面减少不必要的海外军事资源投放（如欧洲），另一方面将 集中资源在更紧迫的议题和地区上；最终目的仍是维持美国强权地位、 阻止其他国家实现全球甚至地区主导。3）巩固经济安全在文件中占据 较大篇幅，包括平衡贸易、关键原材料和供应链、再工业化、振兴国防 业基础、维持能源和金融主导地位等具体目标。特朗普政府或将在全球 资源领域呈现更明显 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 11 月 23 日 俄乌和谈再次启动？ ——国际时政周评 回顾：美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划；美国芯片政策。 未来一周：地缘冲突；美国内政及关税。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1）美国就结束俄乌冲突提出的 28 点新计划。美对俄原油出口制裁落地， 以及俄乌和谈进程或再次开启，本周布伦特油价下跌 2.8%。特朗普政 府在当前阶段提出和平计划，主要原因及背景包括：1）战场局势方 面，冬季来临，俄罗斯在战场稳步进展而乌克兰面临压力，若此时和 谈，俄方或能满足于当前战果而接受停火，而乌方因战场挫败或能接受 一定妥协。2）当前乌克兰泽连斯基政府因战场形势和政府腐败丑闻受 到巨大压力，特朗普此时推动和谈，本质上是在向乌克兰施压，令其让 步。3）美方对俄原油制裁已落地，在特朗普方面不愿对俄施加更进一 步制裁或军事威胁前提下，推动和谈是可预见的选择。从媒体报道的 28 点计划内容看，该方案有助于改善美俄关系和后续合作，而乌方或 需要较大让步。从媒体披露的内容看，当前方案在多个问题上的立场采 取了俄方的一贯主张，包括领土问题、解除俄罗斯制裁、北约不再扩张 （意味着除了乌克兰，格 ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The recent US-China summit resulted in a consensus to delay certain tariffs for one year, reflecting a framework for easing relations[11] - The US will suspend the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and maintain a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for one year, while China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly[10] - Both sides agreed to pause export control measures for one year, including the 50% penetration rule from the US and related measures from China[10] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Reactions - The Nikkei index rose by 6.3% and the Korean Composite Index increased by 4.2% following the US-Japan and US-Korea trade agreements[17] - The US will maintain a 19% tariff on exports to Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, and a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, while these countries will reduce tariffs on US goods[15] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.7% over the past week, indicating positive market sentiment[17] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Trump ordered the resumption of US nuclear tests, a move seen as a political signal rather than a direct threat amid ongoing tensions with Russia[20] - The US is expected to continue its focus on strategic security industries, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[21] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and potential negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program[22]

Economic Developments - The fifth round of China-US trade talks reached a preliminary consensus, with discussions covering various topics including export controls and tariff extensions[8] - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 2.3%, the Nikkei Index increased by 3.6%, and the Korean Composite Index surged by 5.1% in response to positive market expectations[8] Geopolitical Factors - The US and EU imposed new sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a 5.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, while the Russian RTS index fell by 6.5%[13] - Ongoing challenges in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations include territorial sovereignty, post-war guarantees for Ukraine, and ceasefire timelines, with significant differences remaining between the parties[16] Future Outlook - Attention is focused on upcoming China-US trade talks and high-level interactions, as well as the implications of US domestic politics on government operations and tariffs[18] - The US Supreme Court is set to review the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could impact future trade policies[18] Risks - Potential unexpected changes in US policies and international relations could significantly affect market dynamics[5] - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Latin America, may introduce further uncertainties into the global economic landscape[20][21]

Geopolitical Risks - The risk of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is increasing, with Ukraine continuing attacks on Russian energy facilities and Russia limiting diesel and gasoline exports, leading to a 4.2% increase in Brent crude oil prices and a 3.5% rise in ICE diesel prices this week[4] - European countries are expressing readiness to respond to Russian incursions, but internal divisions may affect their actual response capabilities[4] - Trump's recent statements indicate a shift towards supporting Ukraine, although actual U.S. actions regarding increased aid remain unclear[4] Middle East Developments - Trump assured Arab and Islamic leaders that the U.S. would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, proposing a peace plan for Gaza[4] - Ongoing Israeli military actions in Gaza have raised concerns among Arab nations about potential regional conflict escalation[4] U.S. Tariff Policies - Starting October 1, the U.S. will impose new tariffs: 100% on imported brand or patented drugs, 50% on kitchen and bathroom cabinets, 30% on soft furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks produced outside the U.S.[4] - The Trump administration continues to push for tariffs as a tool for trade negotiations, despite facing judicial challenges regarding the legality of these tariffs[4] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.2% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 1.1%[6] - Brent crude oil prices reached $68.82 per barrel, reflecting a 4.2% increase, while ICE diesel prices hit $714.25 per ton, up 3.5%[6] Future Outlook - Continued monitoring of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is essential, particularly regarding potential dialogue signals from Russia amid U.S. pressure[18] - The U.S. government faces a potential shutdown if a temporary budget is not passed by September 30, 2024[21] - The expiration of the Iran nuclear agreement and UN Resolution 2231 on October 18 will be critical to watch, as it may impact ongoing negotiations[20]

Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...