Group 1: Political Developments - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida won the election, leading to a 5% surge in the Nikkei index, with expectations for proactive fiscal policies[5] - Kishida's victory is attributed to effective campaign strategies, converting personal support into party support, while policy discussions remain limited[10] - Kishida's upcoming visit to the U.S. in March and Trump's anticipated visit to China in April are key focus points, with discussions expected on U.S. investments in Japan and strategic issues regarding China[5] Group 2: International Relations - The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to expectations surrounding Trump's visit to China in April, emphasizing the importance of high-level diplomatic engagement[15] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are set for February 17, with potential military actions considered if talks fail[6] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs is expected on February 20, which may provide the Trump administration with more leeway in trade policies[6] Group 3: Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,082.07, reflecting a 0.4% increase for the week, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.4%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.2%, and the S&P 500 fell by 1.4% during the same period[6] - Brent crude oil prices dropped to $67.73, a 0.5% decline, while COMEX gold prices increased by 1.5% to $5,063.80[6]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 为什么伊朗局势一波三折？ ——国际时政周评 回顾：伊朗局势；美国政府拨款法案；中欧关系。 未来一周：日本、泰国大选；地缘；美国内政。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1、特朗普称伊朗正"严肃"与美国对话，希望达成协议。1）美伊紧张局 势下，本周布伦特油价上涨 6.7%，关注后续地缘演绎。2）本周经历了 美军加强地区部署、美欧加强对伊制裁后，美伊双方表态经历了先紧 张、后缓和，表明双方外交渠道和私下接触仍在起作用。3）但美伊双 方谈判诉求始终明确，短期谈判难度很高。a）对于美方，要求是伊朗 永久停止以铀浓缩为核心的核计划、限制伊朗弹道导弹计划、伊朗停止 对地区代理人的一切支持，以及可能包括允许美国参与伊朗石油产业。 b）对于伊朗，核心要求是保证政权稳定，同时伊朗难以承诺放弃铀浓 缩和弹道导弹，还可能要求解除对伊朗的制裁。3）伊朗与委内瑞拉局 势不同，美方或将继续极限施压，但不排除采取小规模精准打击以试图 推动谈判。特朗普的政治底线仍是避免全面卷 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 地缘紧张此起彼伏 ——国际时政周评 回顾：格陵兰岛缓和；中美关系；俄乌美三方会谈。 未来一周：日本、泰国大选；伊朗局势；其他地缘。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 ❑ 上周时政回顾： 1、格陵兰问题：特朗普表示不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛；称已就格陵兰岛制 定协议框架，不会对欧洲加征关税。地缘紧张与原油供给过剩预期相互 博弈，本周布伦特油价上涨 1.9%，关注后续地缘演绎。1）本周美欧双 方表态缓和，重回外交谈判，符合预期。客观而言，美方对格陵兰岛的 具体要求（扩大军事部署、获得当地资源品、排除外界国家影响力 等），完全可以通过补充现有协议的方式满足，并无一定需要格陵兰岛 主权的必要；欧洲方面也愿意满足这些要求。2）谈判或聚焦于补充 1951 年美国-丹麦协议。美方或希望：确保美国在制定军事计划时不受 任何限制；部署"金穹" 防御系统；明确排除外界国家在当地开展活 动；获得格陵兰岛矿产获取权。3）特朗普对格陵兰岛的主权要求仍是 后续博弈的风险点，欧洲的反击力度或仍有限。 2、中美关系与中欧关 ...

Geopolitical Risks - The situation in Iran remains tense, with Trump delaying military action due to insufficient preparation by the U.S. and Israel, leading to a 1.9% increase in Brent oil prices as of January 17[5] - The U.S. aims to avoid a prolonged war in the Middle East, focusing on pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear and missile programs, while Iran's survival of its regime remains a priority[5] - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East is expected to remain high throughout the year, influenced by Israel's upcoming elections and the fragile peace agreements in Gaza[5] Greenland and U.S. Tariffs - Trump continues to exert pressure on Europe regarding Greenland, with potential tariffs on goods exported to the U.S. from Denmark and other countries increasing from 10% to 25% by June 2026[17] - The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, which may provide the administration with more leeway in negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[6] - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, reflecting a focus on strategic security industries[6] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.4% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.1%, indicating mixed performance in the Chinese stock market[7] - Brent crude oil prices rose by 1.9% this week, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply concerns[12] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2%, while the euro depreciated by 0.4% against the Chinese yuan, indicating fluctuations in currency markets[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US has postponed the imposition of tariffs on Chinese chips for 18 months, aiming to stabilize short-term US-China relations and manage friction levels [5][10][14] - The strategic objective of the US in the technology competition remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining technological hegemony, but the approach may shift towards more precise controls rather than a blanket blockade [5][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring domestic political dynamics in the US that could interfere with major power relations, especially with the upcoming election year [5][14] Group 2 - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are characterized by a "fighting while talking" approach, with sensitive issues like territorial disputes still unresolved [5][12][15] - Ukraine's proposed peace plan includes maintaining sovereignty, establishing a contact line for monitoring, and receiving security guarantees, while Russia's stance remains firm on territorial claims [12][15] - The report suggests that the current period until winter of the following year may serve as a window for negotiations, with significant implications for US-Russia relations [15][17] Group 3 - The report indicates that geopolitical conflicts will continue, with a focus on the dynamics of US-Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential impacts on global stability [17][20] - The US tariff policies are expected to remain a focal point, particularly regarding strategic security industries, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals [20][21] - The report warns of potential long-term risks associated with the rebalancing of major power relations, particularly in the context of US domestic politics and international trade dynamics [21][22]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - Progress in US-Ukraine talks may lead to a security assurance agreement, with Ukraine potentially promising not to join NATO in exchange for a collective defense framework similar to Article 5 of the NATO treaty[2] - Trump's administration has ordered a complete blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, causing fluctuations in international oil prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 3% on December 17 and decreasing by 1.8% over the week[12] - The US Congress has passed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, increasing military spending to a record $901 billion, which is $8 billion more than the Trump administration's request[16] Group 2: Future Focus Areas - Continued attention on US-China trade relations, particularly regarding tariffs and strategic industries, including semiconductors and critical minerals[22] - Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a focus on the potential for renewed conflict in Gaza and the status of Iran nuclear negotiations[18] - The US government's strategy aims to strengthen control over the Western Hemisphere, with a focus on countering leftist governments in Latin America and securing energy resources[14]

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]

Group 1: U.S. National Security Strategy - The 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy emphasizes prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and critiques Europe while downplaying terrorism threats[10] - The strategy reflects a shift from global free trade to a focus on maintaining U.S. hegemony amid rising competition, suggesting a reallocation of military resources from less critical areas like Europe[13] - Economic security is a major focus, with goals including balancing trade, securing critical materials, and maintaining energy and financial dominance[17] Group 2: U.S.-China Relations - Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese economic leaders indicate a move towards a more stable relationship, with ongoing discussions on trade and strategic cooperation[15] - The U.S. aims to reduce dependency on China in non-sensitive trade areas while enhancing military deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region[14] - The upcoming interactions between U.S. and Chinese leaders are expected to further influence bilateral relations[18] Group 3: Geopolitical Conflicts and Tariffs - Ongoing geopolitical tensions include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East negotiations, with a focus on U.S. involvement and potential impacts on oil prices[19] - U.S. tariffs remain a contentious issue, with ongoing legal discussions and negotiations with countries like India and Brazil, particularly in strategic industries[22] - The U.S. government is conducting investigations into tariffs on sectors such as semiconductors and critical minerals, reflecting a focus on national security[22] Group 4: Political Risks and Future Outlook - The potential for significant shifts in U.S. policy and international relations poses risks, particularly as the 2026 midterm elections approach[24] - The strategy indicates a desire to strengthen U.S. control in the Western Hemisphere, with increased political risks in the region[24] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring domestic political dynamics that could affect the implementation of the National Security Strategy[24]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. has proposed a 28-point plan to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, aiming for negotiations to restart by November 27[9] - The plan includes provisions for Russia and Ukraine to sign a non-aggression pact and limits Ukraine's military to 600,000 personnel[10] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.8% following the implementation of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil exports[12] Group 2: U.S. Domestic Policies - The White House is actively working to block the GAIN AI Act, which would prioritize domestic chip manufacturing and restrict exports by companies like NVIDIA and AMD[15] - The Senate previously attached this act to the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, but its passage is now uncertain due to White House intervention[15] Group 3: Future Outlook - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected, particularly regarding U.S.-Russia interactions and the potential for a peace agreement in Ukraine[16] - The U.S. is focusing on strategic security industries in its tariff policies, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[19] - The upcoming election year in the U.S. is likely to intensify domestic political battles, particularly surrounding the Epstein documents[20]

Group 1: US-China Trade Relations - The recent US-China summit resulted in a consensus to delay certain tariffs for one year, reflecting a framework for easing relations[11] - The US will suspend the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and maintain a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for one year, while China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly[10] - Both sides agreed to pause export control measures for one year, including the 50% penetration rule from the US and related measures from China[10] Group 2: Economic Impact and Market Reactions - The Nikkei index rose by 6.3% and the Korean Composite Index increased by 4.2% following the US-Japan and US-Korea trade agreements[17] - The US will maintain a 19% tariff on exports to Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia, and a 20% tariff on exports to Vietnam, while these countries will reduce tariffs on US goods[15] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.8% and the S&P 500 rose by 0.7% over the past week, indicating positive market sentiment[17] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Trump ordered the resumption of US nuclear tests, a move seen as a political signal rather than a direct threat amid ongoing tensions with Russia[20] - The US is expected to continue its focus on strategic security industries, with ongoing investigations into sectors like semiconductors and critical minerals[21] - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and potential negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program[22]