会议指出，当前我国经济运行依然面临不少风险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持 底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固拓展经济回升向好势头。 中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊解读，一方面，上半年面对外部形势的急剧变 化，GDP同比增速达到5.3%，好于市场预期，经济基本面韧性十足；另一方面，当前经济运 行中存在的有效需求不足、物价低位运行以及贸易冲突中凸显的卡脖子问题等深层次复杂问题 将持续到"十五五"时期甚至更长时间，给我国经济社会发展带来较大挑战。 记者丨 唐婧 编辑丨曾芳 7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定今年10月召开二十届四中全会，研究关于制定"十五 五"规划的建议。会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 会议对当前经济形势作出判断，认为今年以来我国经济展现强大活力和韧性，同时面临不少风 险挑战，要正确把握形势，增强忧患意识，坚持底线思维，用好发展机遇、潜力和优势，巩固 拓展经济回升向好势头。 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，充分释放政策效应。会议还对下半年有效释放内需潜力、坚定不移深化改革、稳住外 贸外资基本盘 ...

Group 1 - The core logic of the bond market in 2025 shifts from "asset scarcity" to "liability scarcity," enhancing marginal pricing power in trading [2][6][7] - The overall economic recovery in the first half of 2025 supports the bond market, with key indicators performing better than expected, leading to a bottom constraint on bond prices [5][16][26] - The bond market experienced four phases in the first half of 2025: "fluctuation-bear-bull-fluctuation," influenced by monetary policy and tariff disturbances [5][26][39] Group 2 - The credit bond market continued to show positive net financing trends, with infrastructure bonds experiencing a decline in net financing while industrial bonds maintained rapid growth [6][39] - The yield on credit bonds initially rose and then fell, with overall credit spreads narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][39][41] - The "liability scarcity" scenario has led to new behaviors among institutions, with traditional allocation channels facing instability due to declining premium growth and valuation adjustments [6][7][39] Group 3 - The second half of 2025 is expected to present opportunities for long positions in interest rate bonds, particularly around the 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% and the 30-year yield above 1.85% [2][8] - The report suggests that July will be a window for credit bond positioning, focusing on interest income and spread compression opportunities [8][39] - The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of stable growth policies and limited significant adjustments in the bond market [7][8][39]