专题研究 2025 年 报 （2025 年 12 月） 利率债研究 货币政策将延续支持性立场 收益率核心区间或为 1.7%-1.9% ——2025 年货币政策与利率债回顾与 2026 年展望 本期要点 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 关注二季度货币政策报告释放的四大信号， 2025 年 8 月 恢复征收国债等利息收入增值税的三点意 义——7 月利率运行分析与展望，2025 年 8 月 买断式逆回购首次月初预告，流动性改 善关注短端利率机会 中美关税博弈阶段性缓和，短期内收益率 或阶段性上行，2025 年 5 月 新一轮增量金融政策的四大关注——5 月7 号国新办发布会点评，2025 年 5 月 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率 高波动或延续，2025 年 4 月 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract is 92,600 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,735 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 60 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 231,253 lots, up 7,279 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai Copper are - 33,302 lots, down 996 lots. The LME copper inventory is 166,925 tons, up 325 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 89,389 tons, up 484 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warehouse receipt is 44,650 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 92,240 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the Yangtze River non - ferrous market 1 copper spot price is 92,395 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 50 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 45.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis is - 360 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 9.8 dollars/ton, down 0.28 dollars [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.08 dollars/kiloton, down 0.22 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 82,500 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 83,200 yuan/metal ton, up 300 yuan. The southern processing fee for blister copper is 1,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the northern processing fee is 1,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The refined copper output is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unforged copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application - The copper product output is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons. The cumulative value of power grid infrastructure investment completed is 4,824.34 billion yuan, up 446.27 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment completed is 78,590.9 billion yuan, up 5,028.2 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215,000 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper is 18.1%, up 0.1%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.18%, down 0.02%. The current month's at - the - money IV implied volatility is 19.27%, up 0.0112. The at - the - money option call - put ratio is 1.28, up 0.0181 [2] Industry News - The "15th Five - Year Plan" starts with a moderately loose monetary policy aiming for economic growth and price recovery, with expected reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts next year. The Fed official indicates a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space. In November, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [2]

宏观周周谈：全球财政思路的变化 20251214 摘要 当前全球经济面临通胀压力，各国政府杠杆率未显著上升，实际利率并 未被动走高，因此大幅降息空间受限。各国财政政策转向开源，通过提 高税收等方式支持财政扩张，以应对无法节流的困境。 美国政治光谱的摇摆对经济政策产生影响。共和党倾向于减税降息刺激 投资，而民主党则倾向于加税加息优化社会结构，实现共同富裕，并通 过二次分配增加对低收入群体的转移支付。 疫情后，各国普遍面临通胀压力，财政政策转向开源。英国扩大遗产税 征收范围，日本下调超级富豪定义标准以增加税收，表明全球财政思路 正从节流转向开源。 中国通过初次分配、二次分配和三次分配等多项措施实现共同富裕，包 括构建双循环、优化要素和人才分配，提高全要素生产率，以及提高消 费率推动经济发展。 中国债券市场在经历三年牛市后，恢复增值税并对黄金加税，预示未来 可能针对受益领域或群体增加税源或提高税率，对长期投资理念具有重 要参考价值。 Q&A 为什么当前全球财政和货币政策不会同时发力？ 当前全球财政和货币政策不会同时发力，主要原因在于经济周期和通胀水平的 变化。在经济衰退向复苏过渡时，宽财政和宽货币通常是为了逆周期调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for November indicates a notable improvement in corporate financing demand, with the initial effects of policy financial tools becoming evident. However, the residential sector remains a significant shortcoming, primarily due to the ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [4][11]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In November, social financing increased by 2.49 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan. The stock growth rate of social financing remained stable at 8.5% [1][5]. - The increase in real credit was 405.3 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 116.3 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. The decline was primarily driven by a reduction in residential loans [6][7]. - Corporate loans remained strong, aligning with the high BCI corporate financing environment index for November, indicating a shift in bank assessments towards corporate sectors due to weak residential loan demand [2][7]. Group 2: Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bond financing amounted to 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.8 billion yuan, with expectations for December financing to remain around 1.2 trillion yuan [8]. - Corporate bond financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, driven by policy encouragement for technology finance and lower financing costs [8][9]. Group 3: Trust and Other Financing Instruments - The amount of undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 149 billion yuan, reflecting a significant expansion in bank bill issuance, likely influenced by lower interest rates [9]. - Trust loans increased by 84.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 75.3 billion yuan, partly due to the spillover effects of policy financial tools on infrastructure financing [9]. Group 4: Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued downward trend following a peak in September [10]. - M2 growth was recorded at 8.0%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points, primarily due to reduced credit generation [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The main highlight of the November financial data is the improvement in corporate financing demand, with a need to monitor the impact of policy financial tools in the upcoming quarters, especially in the construction sector [4][11].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, signaling a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating expectations of interest rate cuts and weak domestic real estate sales [1][3][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The stability of the LPR was anticipated following the PBOC's decision to maintain the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate at 2.75% while renewing 500 billion yuan [3]. - The one-year LPR has remained stable since a 10 basis point reduction in June, while the five-year LPR has gradually decreased from 4.3% since August of the previous year, indicating a shift from aggressive monetary easing to more precise support measures [3][6]. - The current banking net interest margin has fallen below 1.7%, prompting banks to lower deposit rates to create space for LPR stability, reflecting a balance sought by the PBOC between bank profitability and financing costs for the real economy [5]. Group 2: Economic Data and Policy Balance - The decision to keep the LPR unchanged is influenced by a balance between inflation and growth, with September's CPI showing zero growth and PPI rising by 0.4%, alongside rising international oil prices and potential import price increases due to currency fluctuations [6]. - Despite a GDP growth of 4.9% in Q3, concerns remain regarding a 9.1% decline in real estate investment and continuous negative export growth, suggesting that maintaining low interest rates supports manufacturing and infrastructure financing while avoiding additional pressure on the currency [6][7]. Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC's monetary policy committee has indicated that the LPR is likely to remain stable until at least December, with a focus on observing the effects of previous measures [7]. - Should certain conditions arise, such as a conclusion to the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle or significant changes in domestic inflation or real estate sales, the PBOC may consider emergency measures [7]. - The PBOC is more inclined to use reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts rather than interest rate cuts, with an average RRR of 7.4%, allowing for liquidity release while reducing bank funding costs [7]. Group 4: Structural Policy Tools - The PBOC has emphasized the use of structural tools, with over 6 trillion yuan in re-lending and a focus on targeted infrastructure projects to avoid broad monetary easing while supporting weak sectors [8]. - The deepening of interest rate marketization through deposit rate cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates aims to alleviate bank margin pressures and stimulate consumer spending [8]. - The unchanged five-year LPR, coupled with adjustments to real estate credit policies, suggests that certain cities may implement lower interest rate floors to stimulate local markets [8].

Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is shifting towards "precise drip irrigation," focusing on structural tools to enhance key areas, while expectations for interest rate cuts are cooling down [1][6] - The central bank maintains a stance of "moderate easing," emphasizing the implementation of previously announced measures rather than increasing stimulus [6] Market Conditions - After adjustments in August, the bond yield curve has steepened, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 1.86%, reflecting mixed market signals and a lack of clear turning points [4][9] - Investor risk appetite remains high, leading to cautious sentiment in the bond market, which is expected to continue in a volatile downward trend [1][9] Funding Situation - The funding environment is reasonably ample, with the central bank taking measures such as restarting 14-day reverse repos and maintaining low interest rates [5] - A total of 17,633 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 9,000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos are set to mature, indicating a stable funding outlook [5] Economic Indicators - Economic recovery continues at a moderate pace, with travel and consumption remaining stable during the National Day holiday, although movie box office and real estate sales are relatively weak [7] - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8% in September, indicating improved economic activity, while the non-manufacturing PMI saw a slight decline [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes China's monetary policy independence and the beginning of a revaluation of RMB assets, as indicated by the response of the central bank to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, signaling that China's interest rate policy is anchored to domestic economic data rather than external influences [2][3] - The PBOC's recent operations, including a net injection of 540 billion yuan through 14-day reverse repos, are viewed as a form of "invisible rate cut," aimed at stabilizing liquidity without signaling excessive easing [3][4] Group 2 - The stability of the RMB exchange rate reflects the effectiveness of the "self-directed" policy, with the RMB appreciating by 1.3% from its August low, and foreign capital inflows into A-shares reaching 22 billion USD in August [4][6] - Analysts expect a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 25 basis points before December, primarily to offset maturing Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) and reduce bank funding costs, rather than a broad monetary easing [4][5] - The shift in China's monetary policy from a follower to a price setter is highlighted, as the RMB's stability and high real interest rates provide intrinsic support for RMB assets, making them increasingly important in global asset allocation [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to address current economic challenges while promoting growth and stability in the second half of the year [1][3][5]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The meeting assesses that China's economy has shown strong vitality and resilience in the first half of the year, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, surpassing market expectations [2]. - However, there are ongoing risks such as insufficient effective demand, low price levels, and challenges from trade conflicts that may persist into the next five-year plan [2][4]. - The economic cycle is still in the destocking phase, necessitating targeted incremental policies to stimulate various sectors [2]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - The meeting calls for sustained and timely macroeconomic policies, focusing on more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to fully unleash policy effects [5][6]. - Emphasis is placed on the effective implementation of existing policies, with a focus on structural and targeted support rather than broad-based measures [5][6]. - The government aims to accelerate the issuance and utilization of government bonds to enhance funding efficiency, with over 2.2 trillion yuan in new local government bonds issued by mid-2023 [5]. Group 3: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The meeting highlights the importance of effectively releasing domestic demand potential, particularly through boosting consumption and fostering new growth points in service consumption [8]. - Service consumption is identified as a key driver for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, with recent policies aimed at improving living standards to further stimulate consumption [8]. Group 4: Market Competition and Industry Governance - The meeting stresses the need to promote a unified national market and optimize market competition order, addressing issues of disorderly competition and excess capacity in key industries [9][10]. - Specific measures include controlling new capacity in traditional industries and supporting innovation in emerging sectors to avoid administrative overreach [9]. Group 5: Foreign Trade and Investment - The meeting emphasizes the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, providing support to affected foreign trade enterprises and optimizing export tax rebate policies [11]. - Policies will be introduced to assist foreign trade companies in exploring non-U.S. overseas markets and to facilitate the transition of export goods to domestic sales [11]. Group 6: Local Government Debt Management - The meeting reiterates the importance of managing local government debt risks and prohibits the creation of new hidden debts, aiming for a clear separation between government and enterprise financing [12]. - The focus is on a gradual and effective approach to clearing local financing platforms while ensuring risk control [12]. Group 7: Capital Market Development - The meeting calls for enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to support stable growth [13][14]. - Suggestions include improving investment return expectations, increasing financing convenience, and expanding the range of financial tools available to support market stability [13][14].

Group 1 - The core logic of the bond market in 2025 shifts from "asset scarcity" to "liability scarcity," enhancing marginal pricing power in trading [2][6][7] - The overall economic recovery in the first half of 2025 supports the bond market, with key indicators performing better than expected, leading to a bottom constraint on bond prices [5][16][26] - The bond market experienced four phases in the first half of 2025: "fluctuation-bear-bull-fluctuation," influenced by monetary policy and tariff disturbances [5][26][39] Group 2 - The credit bond market continued to show positive net financing trends, with infrastructure bonds experiencing a decline in net financing while industrial bonds maintained rapid growth [6][39] - The yield on credit bonds initially rose and then fell, with overall credit spreads narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][39][41] - The "liability scarcity" scenario has led to new behaviors among institutions, with traditional allocation channels facing instability due to declining premium growth and valuation adjustments [6][7][39] Group 3 - The second half of 2025 is expected to present opportunities for long positions in interest rate bonds, particularly around the 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% and the 30-year yield above 1.85% [2][8] - The report suggests that July will be a window for credit bond positioning, focusing on interest income and spread compression opportunities [8][39] - The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of stable growth policies and limited significant adjustments in the bond market [7][8][39]