生意社02月26日讯 节后钴价震荡上涨 据生意社商品钴行情分析系统：2月26日钴价440100元/吨，较2月14日钴价425300元/吨震荡上涨，涨幅 3.48%；较2月1日钴价444800元/吨先跌后涨，跌幅1.06%。春节过后，新能源汽车销量恢复，钴市需求 上涨，加之钴市供给减少，节后钴价震荡上涨。 生意社数据分析师认为，新能源汽车产销量增长缓慢，钴市需求预期下滑，马达加斯加钴矿停产，钴市 供给减少，加之春节后国内下游客户库存补库，钴市需求短暂上涨。综合来说，需求支撑加之供给减 少，后市钴价震荡上涨。 相关的上市公司：华友钴业(603799)、寒锐钴业(300618)、洛阳钼业(603993)。 【大宗商品公式定价原理】 生意社基准价是基于价格大数据与生意社价格模型产生的交易指导价，又称生意社价格。可用于确定以 下两种需求的交易结算价： 1、指定日期的结算价 2、指定周期的平均结算价 定价公式：结算价 = 生意社基准价×K＋C K：调整系数，包括账期成本等因素。 钴市供给行情 日本住友公司2月18日表示，其位于马达加斯加的安巴托维镍钴项目因热带气旋盖扎尼上周袭击该岛， 造成设施损坏而关闭。安巴托维由住友拥 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Anglo American has lowered its copper production guidance for 2027 due to a significant decline in Q4 2025 output, which dropped by 14% year-on-year to 170,000 tons [1] - The revised copper production guidance has been adjusted from a previous forecast of 760,000 to 820,000 tons down to 750,000 to 810,000 tons, reflecting ongoing production pressures in major regions like Chile [1] - The supply stability of copper, a critical raw material for electrification and renewable energy infrastructure, is increasingly under market scrutiny, especially as the global energy transition accelerates [1] Group 2 - In the context of overall operational pressure, Anglo American's various business segments are showing significant divergence, with iron ore production increasing from 14.3 million tons to 15.1 million tons in Q4 [2] - Nickel production also saw a slight increase, rising by 3% year-on-year to 10,300 tons, while diamond production faced severe challenges, plummeting by 35% to only 3.8 million carats due to weak market demand [2] - The company has issued a warning regarding the diamond market, indicating that the current environment may lead to impairment impacts on annual performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - Sinopec's South China Company has raised the listing price of xylene by 100-150 yuan/ton to 5800 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply and strong demand in the spot market, which is favorable for spot prices [1][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment - The new listing prices for xylene are as follows: Guangzhou Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Zhongke Refining all execute at 5800 yuan/ton [1][4]. - The price increase reflects a broader trend of tightening supply in the market, which is expected to support higher prices [2][5]. Group 2: Market Implications - The price adjustment is likely to boost bullish sentiment in the futures market, particularly for PX futures, which have a settlement price of 7190 yuan/ton for contract 2609 [2][5]. - The increase in xylene prices may lead to a positive outlook for related commodities, as the market responds to the supply-demand dynamics [2][5]. Group 3: Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism used by the business community is based on big data and a pricing model, which generates a benchmark price for transactions [2][5]. - The pricing formula includes an adjustment coefficient (K) and a premium/discount (C) that accounts for logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [3][6].

Core Insights - Shanghai's Putuo District has developed a leading position in bulk commodity trading, particularly in non-ferrous metals, establishing a unique production-oriented internet service platform [1][3] - The Shanghai Metal Exchange, the predecessor of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, has significantly contributed to the growth of metal trading in the region, with transaction volumes soaring from tens of billions to 760 billion yuan by 2024 [2][3] - The district aims to enhance the global influence of "Shanghai prices" in commodity trading, addressing the long-standing issue of China's lack of pricing power in the global market [4][5] Industry Development - The Putuo District has transformed from a single trading venue to a comprehensive service platform, achieving a trading scale of 1.1 trillion yuan in non-ferrous metals, which constitutes 78.4% of the district's total commercial sales [3][6] - The district's bulk commodity trading accounts for approximately one-sixth of Shanghai's total, with non-ferrous metals making up about one-third of the city's trading volume [3][6] Policy and Support - The Shanghai municipal government has issued policies to support the development of a production-oriented internet service platform in Putuo, with measures focusing on enhancing financial services and promoting industrial clusters [7][11] - The district aims to achieve a trading scale of over 10 trillion yuan by 2027, further increasing the share of "Shanghai prices" in global trading [5][11] Technological Innovation - The Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Trading Center is leveraging blockchain technology to enhance transparency and security in transactions, addressing issues like information asymmetry and transaction risks [13][14] - The integration of financial technology is a key highlight of the digital transformation, with initiatives to develop innovative supply chain financial products and improve transaction efficiency [14] Future Goals - By 2030, Putuo District plans to attract 50 major supply chain enterprises and establish a national-level innovation platform for non-ferrous metal trading [12] - The district is focused on digital transformation to enhance operational efficiency and competitiveness, utilizing advanced technologies such as big data and IoT [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Guomao Holdings Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 13 billion RMB, aiming to enhance Shanghai's influence in the domestic and international bulk commodity trade sector [3][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shanghai Guomao has a registered capital of 13 billion RMB, with major shareholders including Shanghai International Group (3 billion RMB, 23.08% stake) and Shanghai Port Group (2 billion RMB, 15.38% stake) [3][4]. - The company covers over 20 business areas, including trade brokerage, domestic trade agency, and import-export activities, focusing on commodities such as metal ores, gas, agricultural products, and chemical products [3][4]. Group 2: Strategic Intent - The establishment of Shanghai Guomao is part of Shanghai's strategy to create a competitive local platform for pricing in the global bulk commodity market, especially amid increasing price volatility due to geopolitical factors [6][8]. - The company aims to integrate resources across various sectors, transitioning from decentralized operations to a more collaborative and efficient model in the trade industry [7][8]. Group 3: Leadership and Expertise - The chairman, Zheng Yuanhu, has extensive experience in industrial operations and capital management, while the president, Luo Dongyuan, brings nearly 30 years of expertise in bonds, fixed income, and bulk commodities [4][5]. - This combination of trade background and financial capability positions Shanghai Guomao to effectively manage risks and enhance its service offerings in the bulk commodity trade [5][6]. Group 4: Future Goals - By 2027, Shanghai aims to exceed a bulk commodity trade scale of 10 trillion RMB, with a focus on establishing "Shanghai prices" as a benchmark in the global market [6][7]. - Shanghai Guomao is expected to play a crucial role in achieving this goal by promoting standardization and digitalization in bulk commodity trade [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the role of the futures market in supporting the internationalization of the polyester industry, emphasizing the positive impact of government policies on market openness and participation from global clients [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Market Development - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a policy in April 2025 to enhance the strategic implementation of free trade zones, focusing on the opening of specific futures varieties and exploring diversified pathways for internationalization [1]. - As of July 2025, over 760 overseas clients from more than 30 countries and regions have opened accounts in the Chinese futures market, indicating strong trust from global industry players [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The use of Chinese polyester futures and options tools has effectively optimized storage and logistics costs for exports, enhancing the global market share and international pricing power of Chinese polyester products [1]. - Looking ahead, the integration of China's petrochemical industry is expected to further enhance the pricing capabilities of bulk commodities, supporting the global development of Chinese enterprises [2].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous promotion of the opening of the futures market is crucial for enhancing the pricing influence of bulk commodities and supporting the high-quality development of the real economy [1][2]. Group 1: Impact of Opening Futures Market - The opening of the futures market is essential for forming a "China price" that reflects supply and demand in the Asia-Pacific market, thereby enhancing China's global pricing influence in key bulk commodity markets [1][2]. - China's commodity futures market accounts for over 60% of the global total trading volume, indicating its leading position in the world [2]. - The opening of the futures market provides effective risk management tools for domestic and foreign enterprises, facilitating cross-border trade with fair pricing benchmarks [2][3]. Group 2: Internationalization Progress - Since the launch of the first open futures product, crude oil futures, in 2018, a diverse product system covering energy, metals, agricultural products, and shipping has been established, with 24 specific products available as of July 2025 [3]. - The removal of foreign ownership limits for futures companies has created a transparent and stable policy environment, allowing foreign institutions to achieve 100% ownership [3]. - As of June 2025, Chinese futures companies have established 22 first-level subsidiaries, 39 second-level subsidiaries, and 6 third-level subsidiaries overseas, enhancing their global presence [3]. Group 3: Future Directions for Opening - The futures market will continue to expand its specific product offerings and optimize the participant structure to attract global traders [4][5]. - The industry will focus on improving cross-border transaction regulations and enhancing the protection mechanisms for both domestic and foreign traders [5]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will persist in exploring cross-border cooperation and optimizing the institutional environment to better serve the high-quality development of the real economy [5].

Group 1 - The global derivatives market is undergoing profound changes, with Asian exchanges emerging as dominant players in commodity trading [3] - Chinese exchanges have significantly increased their influence in the agricultural futures sector, holding four positions in the top ten global commodity exchanges as of 2023 [3] - From 2012 to 2024, Asian agricultural futures and options trading volumes have experienced exponential growth, establishing Asia as the core growth area for global agricultural derivatives trading [3] Group 2 - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is presented with a substantial opportunity to enhance the international influence of bulk commodity pricing [3] - As market openness deepens and infrastructure improves, Chinese futures prices are expected to play a more critical role in the global bulk commodity pricing system, providing efficient and transparent pricing benchmarks and risk management tools for cross-border trade [3]