聚酯产业

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聚酯数据日报-20251010
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:27
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 IIC国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/10 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/9/30 | 2025/10/9 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 479.7 | 471.0 | -8. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:国际原油价格较节前波动有限,虽然华东330万 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1108. 0 | 1161.2 | 53. 22 | 吨(设计产能,实际360万吨)PTA装置计划外降负荷 | | | | | | | 至5成左右,但消缺天数可能仅一周左右,对市场提振 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3178 | 1. 3393 | 0. 0214 | 效果有限。下游聚酯产销一般,需求不旺。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 804 | 8 ...
聚酯链日报:成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力,PX及PTA延续弱势运行-20251009
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 11:13
成本支撑弱化叠加累库压力,PX及PTA延续弱势运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号:F03115367 投资咨询:Z0019145 手机:18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 09月30日,PX 主力合约收6570.0元/吨,较前一交易日收跌1.5%,基差 为-97.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4594.0元/吨,较前一交易日收跌1.25%, 基差为6.0元/吨。 成本端,09月30日,布油主力合约收盘66.77美元/桶。WTI收63.18美元/ 桶。需求端,09月30日,轻纺城成交总量为1230.0万米,15 日平均成交为 865.67万米。 供给端 :PX及PTA供应端整体呈宽松态势。PX基差持续走弱反映出当前现 货市场供应过剩压力,尽管近期国内部分PX装置出现短停检修,但整体开 工率仍维持在相对高位,供应压力难以有效缓解。PTA方面,加工费持续低 位导致工厂减产意愿增强,但高库存背景下部分装置降负仍不足扭转供需 格局,叠加未来新装置投产计划,供应压力将延续。 需求端 :下游聚酯需求呈现边际转弱迹象。轻纺 ...
聚酯产业链四季度报告:成本和需求季节性波动,价格或前低后高
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 07:02
能源化工|季度报告 聚酯产业链四季度报告 2025 年 9 月 29 日 成本和需求季节性波动,价格或前低后高 国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号:F03086791 投资咨询号:Z0016549 OPEC+延续增产政策 供应过剩加剧 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师: 9 月,8 个 OPEC+成员国同意在 10 月份将石油产量提高 13.7 万桶/日,增产 政策延续。EIA 不断上调 2025 年和 2026 年全球原油产量预估,供应过剩预期逐 步强化。从需求季节性变化来看,四季度全球原油需求先下降后回升,根据 EIA 的预估,四季度各个月份原油供应均处于过剩状态。 生产利润普遍偏低 需求淡季供应或下降 PX 和 PTA 现货生产利润较低,以 PTA 更为突出,生产利润偏低使相关企 业的生产积极性偏低,预计装置检修仍较多。据悉,独山能源 250 万吨/年的 PTA 新装置或于 11 月投产,这套装置投产后,短期内没有新的装置将要投产的计划, 产能扩张对价格的压力将有望缓解。 相关研究报: 纺织原料需求旺季不旺 产业需求将面临回落 需求或由旺转淡》2025.0 ...
期货衍生品成聚酯产业企业生存发展“必需品”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-09-17 23:56
在聚酯产业链长期受价格周期性波动困扰的当下,从上游PX到中游PTA,再到下游聚酯制品,各环节 利润如同"过山车"般频繁切换,企业经营始终面临"成本难控、利润难锁"的双重挑战。而期货及期权等 衍生工具的深度渗透,正在从根本上改变这一局面。 期货衍生品的价值,不仅在于帮助企业"锁定加工费、控制原材料成本",更在于让企业摆脱 "被动承受 价格波动"的困境——当企业无须为短期价格涨跌焦虑时,才能更从容地投入技术研发、拓展市场,而 非陷入"低价促销战"的内耗。 值得关注的是,期权工具的"保险式"特性,进一步丰富了产业风控选择;而头部企业对衍生工具的娴熟 运用,更成为带动产业协同的关键。比如新凤鸣通过"PTA—聚酯—纺丝"一体化布局结合期货套保,既 实现了原料自给自足,又锁定了加工费;恒力石化借助原油、聚酯产品期货交易,规避价格波动冲击。 这些龙头企业还通过布局交割厂库、推广点价模式,带动上下游中小企业参与衍生品市场,大幅提升了 整个产业链的抗风险能力与协同效率,避免了"单兵作战"的脆弱性。 从实际作用看,期货衍生品为聚酯企业筑起了"抗波动防线",有效平滑周期冲击、稳定经营基本盘。 PX与PTA的加工费时常在短期内大幅收 ...
聚酯产业风险管理日报:EG显性库存延续去化,价格震荡偏强-20250825
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:47
Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]
美联储,大消息!今晚,投资者屏息以待!美国宣布,15%关税!聚酯板块品种集体走强
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-08-21 23:59
Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, urging Chairman Powell to remove her from the board due to concerns over her financial history [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a policy decision were made tomorrow, citing persistent high inflation [2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but he is concerned about the labor market [3][4] Market Reactions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75% [5] - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 152.81 points, as investors await Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference [6][7] U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a framework agreement on trade, which includes a commitment to apply either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU goods [8][9] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, with a potential reduction to 15% contingent on EU legislative action [10] Polyester Sector Insights - The polyester sector has seen a rebound since August 15, driven by stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels, and approaching demand season [11][12] - The upstream PX segment is performing well, while PTA and polyester segments are experiencing lower profits, indicating a "strong upstream, weak downstream" dynamic [13]
期市提升中国聚酯产品的国际定价能力和竞争力
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-08-21 00:51
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum highlighted the role of the futures market in supporting the internationalization of the polyester industry, emphasizing the positive impact of government policies on market openness and participation from global clients [1][2]. Group 1: Policy and Market Development - The Central Committee of the Communist Party and the State Council issued a policy in April 2025 to enhance the strategic implementation of free trade zones, focusing on the opening of specific futures varieties and exploring diversified pathways for internationalization [1]. - As of July 2025, over 760 overseas clients from more than 30 countries and regions have opened accounts in the Chinese futures market, indicating strong trust from global industry players [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - The use of Chinese polyester futures and options tools has effectively optimized storage and logistics costs for exports, enhancing the global market share and international pricing power of Chinese polyester products [1]. - Looking ahead, the integration of China's petrochemical industry is expected to further enhance the pricing capabilities of bulk commodities, supporting the global development of Chinese enterprises [2].
聚酯数据日报-20250815
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 11:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the commodity market has weakened. The domestic PTA production capacity supply has contracted, and the port inventory has decreased. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX has remained at around $90. The market port inventory has been depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has weakened, and the market's willingness to replenish inventory has declined [2]. - Coal prices have rebounded, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. The macro - sentiment has slightly weakened, and the chemical sector has followed the weakening sentiment of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, have experienced continuous delays in maintenance, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the price of ethylene glycol. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease. Polyester sales have weakened, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has had a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - **PTA**: The market risk preference has recovered, and the crude oil price has slightly increased during the day, strengthening the cost support. The PTA supply side has seen both restarts and maintenance. The PTA spot price has slightly increased following the futures price. On August 12, 2025, the PTA main futures price was 4726 yuan/ton, the spot price was 4705 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee was 218.3 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee was 229.3 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The spot negotiation price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market this week was 4507 - 4509 yuan/ton, up 20.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The ethylene glycol futures have maintained a relatively strong trend, and the spot price has continued to rise, while the basis negotiation has slightly weakened [2]. 2. Industry Chain Start - up Conditions - The PX start - up rate remained at 78.11%, the PTA start - up rate remained at 76.56%, the MEG start - up rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 58.74%, and the polyester load decreased by 0.21 percentage points to 86.88% [2]. 3. Polyester Product Data - **Polyester Filament**: The prices of POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6730 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F increased by 50 yuan/ton to 7095 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7935 yuan/ton. The cash flows of POY, FDY, and DTY were - 51, - 186, and - 46 respectively, with changes of - 10, 40, and 20 compared to the previous day. The sales of polyester filament increased from 40% to 41% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased by 20 yuan/ton to 6570 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to 139, and the sales increased from 57% to 58% [2]. - **Polyester Chips**: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 20 yuan/ton to 5815 yuan/ton, the cash flow increased by 10 to - 66, and the sales increased from 89% to 115% [2]. 4. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].
聚酯数据日报-20250731
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 06:15
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, the supply of domestic PTA production capacity has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, and the profitability of alkyl transfer and TDP is not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory is being depleted, and polyester replenishment has improved with the weakening of the basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of Northeast PX plants and Zhejiang reforming units has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the price of ethylene glycol (MEG). The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the warming sentiment of commodities. The maintenance of overseas MEG plants, especially Saudi Arabian ones, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market and has been boosting the price of MEG. The future arrival volume of MEG is expected to decrease. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profit of downstream weaving has shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 515.0 yuan/barrel on July 29, 2025, to 528.6 yuan/barrel on July 30, 2025, with a change of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC decreased from 1095.4 yuan/ton to 1014.6 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.83 yuan/ton; PTA/SC decreased from 1.2927 to 1.2641, a change of - 0.0286; CFR China PX increased from 857 to 866, a change of 9; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 279 to 277, a change of - 2; PTA主力期价 increased from 4838 yuan/ton to 4856 yuan/ton, a change of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 4830 yuan/ton to 4860 yuan/ton, a change of 30.0 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 213.3 yuan/ton to 179.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.0 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 decreased from 211.3 yuan/ton to 185.3 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.0 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (5) to (10), a change of - 5.0; PTA仓单数量 decreased from 30740 to 29738, a change of - 1002 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4467 yuan/ton to 4450 yuan/ton, a change of - 17.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (97.29) to (96.48), a change of 0.8; MEG内盘 increased from 4510 to 4527, a change of 17.0; 主力基差 decreased from 63 to 60, a change of - 3.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PX开工率 remained unchanged at 77.29%; PTA开工率 decreased from 80.59% to 79.45%, a change of - 1.14%; MEG开工率 remained unchanged at 58.13%; 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 86.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F increased from 6720 to 6760, a change of 40.0; POY现金流 increased from (171) to (162), a change of 9.0; FDY150D/96F increased from 7015 to 7060, a change of 45.0; FDY现金流 increased from (376) to (362), a change of 14.0; DTY150D/48F increased from 7910 to 7955, a change of 45.0; DTY现金流 increased from (181) to (167), a change of 14.0; 长丝产销 increased from 33% to 110%, a change of 77%; 1.4D直纺涤短 remained unchanged at 6665; 涤短现金流 decreased from 124 to 93, a change of - 31.0; 短纤产销 decreased from 53% to 42%, a change of - 11%; 半光切片 increased from 5885 to 5920, a change of 35.0; 切片现金流 increased from (106) to (102), a change of 4.0; 切片产销 increased from 68% to 89%, a change of 21% [2]. Device Maintenance - An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on the raw material logistics situation [2].
企业已从“被动对冲”转向“主动管理”
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-26 01:13
Core Insights - The polyester industry in Fujian has significantly increased the application of futures and options tools for risk management, especially amid heightened market price volatility [1][4] - Leading companies in the polyester sector, such as Fuhai Chuang and Baihong, have deepened their use of futures tools, with both companies possessing delivery warehouse qualifications [1][2] - The shift from passive risk hedging to proactive value management is evident, as companies leverage futures and options not only for risk management but also to reconstruct cost advantages [4] Group 1: Industry Trends - The polyester industry benefits from comprehensive coverage of upstream and downstream futures products, allowing companies to optimize operations using these tools [2] - Many factories have developed hedging experience with PTA and short fibers, indicating a strong awareness of futures [2] - The integration of spot and futures trading models provides differentiated services, enhancing the industry's risk resilience in a low-profit environment [2][3] Group 2: Service Providers - Industry service providers like Guomao Chemical and Huixing Industrial are empowering polyester companies through diverse service models, including customized risk management and cross-market trade services [3] - These service providers are facilitating a transition from simple trading to integrated trade and manufacturing, helping companies stabilize production and manage price risks effectively [3][4] - The application of innovative collaborative models, such as "self-management + cooperative production," is helping companies mitigate price volatility risks and achieve strategic breakthroughs [4]