1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 2nd, varieties in the polyester industry chain significantly reduced positions and declined. The PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG main contracts fell by 4.84%, 4.89%, 3.57%, 4.05%, and 4.63% respectively [1]. - The decline was due to a sharp drop in crude oil prices with the retracement of geopolitical premiums, and a significant drop in precious metals and non - ferrous metals which led to a rapid decline in market risk appetite and the outflow of incremental funds from the chemical sector [1]. - The cost side has recently fluctuated around the Iran situation. The Brent oil price dropped from around $70 per barrel at the end of last month to around $65 - $66 per barrel [1][2]. - In the short term, PX/PTA/PF/PR markets are greatly affected by external funds and are highly volatile. It is recommended to hold light positions and wait and see. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on hedging at low prices [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR); PTA spot processing fee; South Korean xylene isomerization profit; South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea); toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR; PTA export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures involve PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, filament FDY profit, and filament POY profit [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [71][75][85] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [88][90][95]

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 3 GALAXY FUTURES | 综合分析与交易策略 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | | 外盘中东一套82万吨PX装置1月按计划停车检修40-50天左右。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, international oil prices rebounded significantly. The OPEC+ is expected to continue the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in February. Although the traditional demand peak season continues, the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong due to the background of supply - demand surplus. [5][124][127] - The polyester industry chain is affected by the Spring Festival. In February, the demand will decline first and then rebound rapidly. The decline in demand has limited negative impact on prices, and the main influencing factor lies in the supply side. If the supply does not increase significantly, the price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. [8][10] - In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong in February, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the new production capacity of filament and staple fiber will increase in 2026, and the production profits may be under long - term pressure. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved in January and still has room for improvement in the future. [128] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January, the prices of polyester industry chain varieties fluctuated greatly. PX price was relatively weak, while PTA and bottle chips were relatively strong. Ethylene glycol, which performed poorly in 2025, rebounded significantly in January. [16] - **PX**: The PX price was affected by the tight PTA supply since the fourth quarter of 2025. In January 2026, the PX price was weakly correlated with crude oil. The PX futures had a maximum cumulative increase of 23.2% from the lowest point in October 2025 to the highest point in January 2026. [17][19] - **PTA**: In January, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2025. The PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, but the stocking speed was relatively moderate. The PTA futures price increased slightly more than PX from the low point in October 2025 to the high point in January 2026. [20][22][24] - **MEG**: In January, the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased slightly. The oil - based ethylene glycol profit improved slightly, and the coal - based ethylene glycol profit approached the break - even point. The ethylene glycol price rebounded rapidly from a low level. The maximum cumulative increase from the lowest point in late December to the highest point in January was 12%. [25][26] - **Staple Fiber**: In January, the staple fiber operating rate increased significantly. Affected by the price increase of PTA and ethylene glycol, the staple fiber processing fee was poor. The staple fiber price increased, but the increase was slightly lower than the increase in polymerization cost. [27][32] - **Bottle Chips**: In January, the bottle chip operating rate continued to decline, reaching a low level in recent years. Although the domestic bottle chip demand was in the off - season, the supply contraction offset the weak demand, and the bottle chip profit was relatively strong. [33][35] 3.2 OPEC+ Suspends Production Increase Policy, but the Expectation of Supply Surplus Remains - **Geopolitical Instability and Weather Factors**: In early January 2026, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the meeting on February 1 will maintain this policy. Geopolitical factors such as the relations between the US and Venezuela and Iran will affect the crude oil supply expectation, but the impact on supply is weak under the background of global crude oil supply surplus. The cold weather in January affected the oil production in the US and Kazakhstan, but the impact is short - term. [36][37] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for 2026 to 10765000 barrels per day in January, an increase of 23000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA significantly lowered the 2026 demand forecast by 34000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA predicted a supply surplus of 2830000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2080000 barrels per day in 2027. [37][39][42] - **Oil Price Trends**: In January, international oil prices rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of more than 14%. The winter heating demand will continue in February, and oil prices are still expected to rise. However, under the background of supply surplus, attention should be paid to the risk of oil prices falling after rising. [43][50][52] 3.3 Low Operating Rates in Multiple Links, with a Decline Expected in Spring Maintenance - **No New Production Capacity Pressure in the Short - Term, but Many Equipment Maintenance Plans**: In the first quarter of 2026, there are no new production plans for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The operating rate changes will affect the supply. The spring maintenance of petrochemical equipment around March usually has a greater impact on the operating rates of PX and PTA. Currently, the PX operating rate is high, and the PTA operating rate is low. [53][54][61] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Expected to Decline, and Import Cost May Rise**: In 2026, there are three new ethylene glycol production devices planned to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. The import cost may rise due to the increase in natural gas prices. [69][71][79] 3.4 Demand Affected by Seasonal Factors, Polyester Operating Rate to Decline First and Then Rebound - **Demand Fluctuations Concentrated in February, with Good Long - Term Demand**: In January 2026, the demand for the polyester industry chain continued to decline. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound rapidly. In the long - run, the industry chain demand is generally good. [80] - **PTA Expected to Stock Moderately, Ethylene Glycol Inventory Still under Pressure to Increase**: In January, the PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase, but the stocking speed slowed down. In February, the PTA stocking speed may accelerate, but it is expected to be moderate. The ethylene glycol inventory still has the pressure to increase, but the decline in the operating rate may offset the stocking pressure. [91][92][94] - **Poor Profits of Polyester Products, Difficult to Improve in the Short - Term**: In January, the polymerization cost increased, and the demand for polyester products first increased and then decreased. The processing fees of filament and staple fiber were poor, while the processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly. In the short - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber are expected to be relatively poor, and the pressure on the profits of filament and staple fiber is still high in the long - term. [95][96][97] - **Seasonal Stocking of Filament, Supply Decline to Offset Stocking Pressure**: In 2025, the export volumes of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the filament inventory showed a differentiation trend, and the stocking situation will continue in February. The staple fiber inventory was relatively good in January, but there is still stocking pressure in February. [101][103][109] - **Greater Fluctuations in Loom Operating Rate, and the Downstream Prosperity May Increase**: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and looms will decline to the lowest point, and then rebound rapidly after the festival. The average operating rate of looms in 2026 is expected to be higher than that in 2024. [112][113] 3.5 Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Expected to Increase, and the Export Market May Improve - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand in 2025, Expected to Accelerate in 2026**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, and the growth rate in December was 0.9%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel in December 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year. With the implementation of domestic demand - promoting policies, the domestic demand for textile and apparel is expected to grow faster in 2026. [118][120] - **Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's total export value increased by 5.5% year - on - year. The total export value of textile and apparel decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, with textile exports increasing by 0.5% and clothing exports decreasing by 5%. Affected by the US tariff policy, clothing exports decreased in 2025, and are expected to recover in 2026. [121][122] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In January 2026, international oil prices strengthened. PX and PTA prices were weak at the beginning of the oil price rebound due to the decline in polyester industry chain demand. The sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices boosted the ethylene glycol price. In January, the PX operating rate was stable, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased, the ethylene glycol average monthly operating rate decreased slightly, and the polyester operating rate continued to decline. The PTA inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase. The profits of PX and PTA were good, and the profits of filament were poor. [124][125][126] - **Outlook**: In February 2026, the OPEC+ may continue to suspend crude oil production increase. The traditional demand peak season continues, but the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong. The polyester industry chain demand will decline due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound. The price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. The ethylene glycol inventory may continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline in the operating rate. In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve. In the long - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber may be under pressure. [127][128]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. The futures market has dominated the price discovery mechanism, showing "irrational prosperity" characteristics. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026. The PX-naphtha spread has widened to $360, and the PX-mixed xylene spread has reached $155, significantly improving the economics of aromatics extraction. The domestic PTA maintains high operating rates, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The polyester new device commissioning has pushed the polyester load to a high level, and the PTA consumption has remained high. The polyester demand has weakened seasonally, but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback. The overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance plans have increased, and the ethylene glycol price is difficult to get effective support under the background of continuous decline in coal prices. With the commissioning of new devices, the market supply pressure continues to increase. The coal-based ethylene glycol device return has put great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the changes in domestic policies, and the ethylene glycol price may be supported under the background of carbon neutrality [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil rose from 437.5 yuan/barrel on January 12, 2026, to 445.6 yuan/barrel on January 13, 2026, an increase of 8.10 yuan/barrel. PTA spot prices fell from 5100 yuan/ton to 5060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract futures price fell from 5142 yuan/ton to 5140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0 yuan/ton. The PTA spot processing fee fell from 352.3 yuan/ton to 302.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.2 yuan/ton. The PTA disk processing fee fell from 394.3 yuan/ton to 382.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.2 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract basis fell from (58) to (69), a decrease of 11.0. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased from 100820 to 102122, an increase of 1302. The MEG main contract futures price fell from 3880 yuan/ton to 3815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65.0 yuan/ton. The MEG internal market price fell from 3734 yuan/ton to 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.0 yuan/ton. The MEG main contract basis fell from -140 to -147, a decrease of 7.0. The CFR China PX price rose from 897 to 899, an increase of 2. The PX-naphtha spread fell from 346 to 341, a decrease of 5 [2] Industry Chain Start-up Situation - The PX operating rate remained at 87.87%, the PTA operating rate remained at 77.40%, the MEG operating rate remained at 61.12%, the polyester load remained at 87.80%, and there was no change in all indicators [2] Product Price and Cash Flow - Among polyester filaments, POY150D/48F fell from 6695 to 6650, a decrease of 45.0; POY cash flow increased from (166) to (161), an increase of 5.0; FDY150D/96F fell from 6890 to 6870, a decrease of 20.0; FDY cash flow increased from (471) to (441), an increase of 30.0; DTY150D/48F rose from 7780 to 7795, an increase of 15.0; DTY cash flow increased from (281) to (216), an increase of 65.0. The sales rate of polyester filaments decreased from 69% to 46%, a decrease of 23%. Among polyester staple fibers, 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged at 6520; the cash flow of polyester staple fiber increased from 9 to 59, an increase of 50.0; the sales rate of polyester staple fibers increased from 81% to 93%, an increase of 12%. Among polyester chips, semi-gloss chips rose from 5770 to 5780, an increase of 10.0; the chip cash flow increased from (191) to (131), an increase of 60.0; the chip sales rate decreased from 72% to 50%, a decrease of 22% [2] Device Maintenance - This week, the 500,000-ton device of Sanfangxiang is in the process of restarting, and another 750,000-ton device will be overhauled recently, with the load gradually decreasing. The overhauls of Xinjiang Yipu and Jinyu devices in December are supplemented. Some factories such as Tiansheng and Guxiandao have reduced their loads [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the PTA 3 and 5 contract positive spread in the arbitrage strategy [8] - The MEG market is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, with a strategy of selling call options [8] - The PF and PR markets are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a positive spread strategy for PF and a wait - and - see strategy for PR in the arbitrage aspect [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: An 820,000 - ton PX unit in the Middle East will undergo a 40 - 50 - day maintenance in January. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10%. PX profits remain good, and the start - up rate is high. The PTA start - up rate changes little, downstream polyester production cuts increase, and the price upward drive weakens. The trading strategy is a single - sided long - term bullish view, a positive spread for the 3 and 5 contracts in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **MEG**: Hainan Refining and Fulei are operating at reduced loads. The 500,000 - ton unit of Fude Energy is expected to restart at the end of January. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and downstream polyester production cuts increase. The trading strategy is a single - sided bearish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options [8] - **PF**: Some short - fiber plants plan to have maintenance from late January to early February. The processing margin has not improved significantly, and downstream sentiment is bearish. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a positive spread in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - **PR**: Some bottle - chip plants have maintenance plans. The short - term market price is expected to follow raw material costs. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - **Production and Sales**: The overall production and sales of filament are weak, the production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, and the transaction atmosphere of bottle - chips is average. The polyester start - up rate remains at 90.8% [13] - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal demand is weak. The comprehensive start - up rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 2% to 72%, and that of looms has decreased by 3% to 56%, while the dyeing start - up rate remains unchanged at 69% [15] - **Filament**: The production and sales of polyester filament are weak, the start - up rate has increased by 0.7% to 90.2%, and the average inventory days have increased by 1.3 days to 16.3 days [17] - **Bottle - chips**: The load of bottle - chips has increased by 0.8% to 74.8%, and the inventory has been reduced smoothly, but downstream customers are more on the sidelines. Multiple plants have maintenance plans [19] - **Short - fiber**: The production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, the demand is weak, and the factory inventory has decreased by 0.3 days to 9.4 days. The processing fee is under pressure, and some plants plan to have Spring Festival maintenance [25] 2.2 PX - The PX market is under pressure due to the release of polyester maintenance plans. The spot market and floating prices have declined, and the paper - cargo spreads have changed [26] 2.3 PTA - The 1.25 - million - ton Ineos unit is operating at 70% load and plans to have maintenance in mid - month, with an estimated restart in early March. The PTA start - up rate changes little, and the price upward drive weakens. The load has increased by 0.1% to 78.2% [28] 2.4 MEG - The inventory in the main ports of East China is about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in the first quarter. The spot basis and futures basis are at a discount [30] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - **Price and Spread**: Data on Brent crude oil futures, PX CFR China, PXN, and PX - MX are presented [36] - **Disproportionation and Blending Price Spread & Profit**: Data on US gasoline and crude oil inventories, toluene blending price spread, disproportionation profit, and xylene blending and PX production spread are presented [38] - **Supply and Demand**: Data on China and Asia's PX load and China's PTA load are presented [45] 3.2 PTA - **Price and Profit**: Data on PTA spot price, profit, load index, and polyester load are presented [48] 3.3 MEG - **Price**: Data on the East China ethylene glycol market price, Ordos 5500K coal price, East China methanol ex - tank price, and Northeast Asian ethylene price are presented [52] - **Profit**: Data on ethylene glycol oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and ethylene glycol coal - based profit are presented [54] 3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: Data on POY, DTY, FDY, bottle - chip, and short - fiber profits are presented [56] - **Supply**: Data on polyester load, bottle - chip load, filament load, short - fiber load, filament and short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of looms and texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are presented [58]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, OPEC+ suspends crude oil production increase, and demand is in the peak season, so international oil prices are expected to strengthen. However, if production increase resumes, it will still suppress oil prices. The market is at an important node, and future oil price fluctuations are expected to widen [4][55][127] - In the polyester industry chain, demand will decline due to the Spring Festival in Q1 2026, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will first decrease and then increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate is mainly affected by the operating rate. The price decline in Q1 is considered a buying opportunity, and the weak ethylene glycol price in 2025 is also expected to strengthen [10][82][127] - Currently, the profits in the entire industry chain are mainly concentrated in the PX segment, and the profit situation of polyester products is generally poor. This situation is expected to continue in Q1 2026, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the pressure on profit decline during the demand decline [128] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In Q4 2025, the prices of PX and PTA first fell and then rose, and finally increased slightly for the whole year. Ethylene glycol prices showed a continuous downward trend, with a significant decline in December. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices first fell and then rose, but still declined for the whole year [16] - PX: In Q4 2025, the supply and demand situation was not good, but the price increased due to the tight supply and continuous inventory reduction of PTA. The operating rate was high, with little room for further improvement [17] - PTA: Since H2 2025, the operating rate has been lower than the previous year, especially in Q4. In November, many devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and inventory. The price increased significantly in December, and the futures price increased by about 4.6% for the whole year [20][21][22] - MEG: In 2025, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In Q4, the supply was loose, and the price continued to fall, with an annual decline of more than 20% [24][27] - Short - fiber: There was no new device put into operation in the past two years. In Q4, the operating rate was generally stable, and the output increased year - on - year. The domestic consumption demand was weak, and the price first fell and then rose, with an annual decline of 4.6% [29][30] - Bottle - chip: In 2025, the production capacity expansion slowed down, but there was still supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the cumulative output increased by 7% year - on - year. The export volume increased significantly, but the domestic demand growth was limited, and the price fell by 2.3% for the whole year [31][33][36] II. OPEC+ Suspends Crude Oil Production Increase in Q1, but the Expectation of Supply Glut Remains - Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, but the expectation of interfering with crude oil production is not strong. In 2025, OPEC+ changed from production cut to production increase, and decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. However, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in March [37] - The EIA continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast in 2025, while the demand adjustment was relatively small. The global crude oil supply became looser, and the supply glut increased in 2025 and 2026 [37][38][40] - In Q1, the heating oil demand is strong, which supports the refinery operating rate. The international oil price is near the low point in recent years, and the current is an important node for oil price fluctuations, with expected wider future fluctuations [45] III. Spring Maintenance in Q1, the Operating Rate of Some Links Will Change Significantly - There is no new device production plan for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in Q1 2026. The PX operating rate is expected to decline significantly due to the spring maintenance, while the impact on the PTA operating rate is expected to be small [56] - Ethylene glycol has many new device production plans in 2026, but there is no plan in Q1. The production profit is poor, and the domestic output may decline [70][73][80] IV. Demand is Affected by Seasonal Factors, and the Polyester Operating Rate Will First Decrease and Then Increase - In Q1, the demand will fluctuate greatly and decline overall due to the Spring Festival. The polyester operating rate will first decrease and then increase, and the output is expected to decline significantly [82][85] - Affected by the decline in demand for polyester raw materials, the inventory will increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, but the negative impact of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation on price in Q1 is expected to weaken [92][95] - The profits of polyester products are generally poor and difficult to improve in Q1. The profits of long - filament and short - fiber are under greater downward pressure, especially during the demand decline [96][98][100] - The long - filament inventory has pressure to increase rapidly in Q1, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is relatively small before the new device is put into operation [107][109] - The operating rate of looms will fluctuate greatly in Q1, and the average operating rate is expected to be higher than that in 2025. The output of yarn and grey cloth is generally low, and the inventory change is relatively small [110][112][113] V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand is not high and will maintain a low - growth trend. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales fluctuates [115][118] - The global economic and trade relations have eased, which is beneficial to the recovery of textile and apparel exports. Although China's textile and apparel exports declined in 2025, they are expected to recover in 2026 [119][120][121] VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In Q4 2025, international oil prices continued to be weak, and the polyester industry chain (except ethylene glycol) first fell and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradictions in some links of the polyester industry chain were prominent, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol diverged significantly. The profits in the industry chain were concentrated in the PX segment [123][124][126] - Outlook: In Q1 2026, international oil prices are expected to strengthen, and the demand in the polyester industry chain will decline due to the Spring Festival. The price decline is considered a buying opportunity, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to strengthen. The current profit situation in the industry chain is expected to continue, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the profit decline pressure [127][128]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is showing relative strength, with the leading chemical ETF (516220) rising by 1.79% on December 30, driven by price increases in PX and downstream products [1]. Group 1: PX and Downstream Products - PX prices are increasing due to tight supply driven by higher demand for upstream toluene/xylene from overseas refining, leading to a sustained rise in PX prices [2]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-discipline production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will continue to expand leading up to the Spring Festival, with weekly supervision checks in place [2]. Group 2: BOPET and PTA - BOPET prices are stabilizing and rising steadily since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [3]. - A 3.6 million ton PTA facility in East China reduced its operating load on December 25 due to issues, with the recovery timeline still pending, while other facilities are also undergoing maintenance [3]. Group 3: Polyester Industry Chain Potential - According to analysis from Kaiyuan Securities, the polyester industry chain has strong potential for anti-involution, characterized by nearing the end of capacity expansion, continuous demand growth, high market share among leading companies, and a predominance of private enterprises focused on profit-driven development [3]. - The chemical sector is complex with many sub-sectors and fast rotation, making the leading chemical ETF (516220) a viable option for investors looking to capitalize on opportunities in the chemical sector [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the textile terminal exports in China are expected to show a "low at first, then high, and mild recovery" trend. The polyester industry will achieve both scale and resilience improvement, which will support the upstream raw materials. PX prices may rise first and then fall, PTA prices may have an upward - moving center of gravity, and ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate [3][4][5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **PX**: In 2025, PX prices showed a pattern of "decline - recovery - oscillation" affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, trade policies, new capacity launches, and downstream demand. The PX - naphtha price spread was at a low level in the first quarter, and the price rebounded in the fourth quarter [11]. - **PTA**: The price trend of PTA in 2025 was similar to that of PX. It was supported by low processing fees in the first quarter, fell to a four - year low in April, and showed a relatively strong trend at the end of the year [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: In 2025, ethylene glycol prices hit the bottom twice. They were affected by factors such as crude oil prices, coal costs, and supply - demand patterns. The price was low at the beginning and end of the year and showed a rebound in the middle [17]. 3.2 Terminal Polyester - **Textile Domestic Demand**: In 2025, China's textile domestic demand showed mild recovery. The retail sales of clothing and textiles increased, and the industry's operation resilience was enhanced. In 2026, if the macro - economy and consumer confidence are further stabilized, polyester domestic demand is expected to continue to grow mildly [21][22]. - **External Demand**: In 2025, China's textile terminal exports showed the characteristics of "increasing volume but decreasing price". In 2026, exports are expected to show a "low at first, then high, mild recovery, and structural differentiation" trend, but the profit margin will still be under pressure [27][28]. - **Polyester Fundamentals**: In 2025, the downstream textile start - up rate was lower than in previous years, and the inventory first accumulated and then declined. Polyester production remained high, capacity continued to grow, exports performed well, and inventory pressure was alleviated. In 2026, polyester demand is expected to grow steadily and optimize its structure, with a planned new capacity of 467 million tons, a total capacity exceeding 96 million tons, and an expected production of 85.4 million tons [34][36][41][54]. 3.3 PX - **Capacity Expansion**: In 2025, there was no new PX capacity. From 2026 to 2030, the new capacity is expected to be about 17 million tons, with 2026 having new projects planned, but the actual capacity put into production in 2026 is uncertain [56]. - **Production and Maintenance**: In 2025, the PX device maintenance was mainly concentrated in the first and second quarters, and the annual average start - up rate was 85.58%. In 2026, maintenance is concentrated in the second and fourth quarters, and production is expected to grow moderately [58]. - **Blending Oil Demand and Imports**: Blending oil demand has been weakening, and PX imports may continue to increase. In 2026, gasoline demand is expected to decline, which may lead to an increase in the supply of paraxylene for chemical consumption [66][70]. - **Inventory and Valuation**: As of October 2025, PX social inventory was lower than in the previous two years, and the current valuation is judged to be moderately low [71][74]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: In 2025, the PX supply - demand difference was tight. In 2026, it is expected to be tight in the first half of the year and may become looser in the second half if new capacity is successfully put into production [77]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, assuming the marginal weakening of blending oil demand, PX supply - demand will be tight compared to 2025, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall. One - sided long opportunities can be found by paying attention to the spread between PX and naphtha [79]. 3.4 PTA - **Capacity Expansion**: From 2026 to 2030, China's PTA will enter a slow - expansion period. There is no new capacity plan in 2026, and new capacity is concentrated in 2027 - 2028. The new capacity of PX and PTA may be mismatched in 2026 [80]. - **Production Growth**: In 2025, PTA production growth slowed down. In 2026, it is expected that the annual production will grow slowly with a low growth rate [85]. - **Processing Fees**: In 2025, PTA processing fees were at a low level. In 2026, with no new PTA capacity and the expected increase in PX supply, PTA processing fees are expected to recover [88]. - **Exports**: In 2025, PTA exports decreased. In 2026, due to factors such as the lack of progress in Indian certification and foreign new capacity launches, PTA exports are expected to continue to decline [89]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, PTA social inventory showed a trend of rising first and then falling. In 2026, it is expected to accumulate at the beginning of the year and then decrease, especially during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" and "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods [92][93]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to be loose around the Spring Festival and then gradually improve from March to June and in the fourth quarter [97]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, PTA supply - demand is expected to improve, and the price center of gravity may move upward. One can focus on the opportunity of buying at low prices [99][100]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - **Production Process Economics**: In 2025, the gross profit of the mainstream ethylene glycol production process was still in a loss state, but it improved year - on - year [102]. - **Production and Capacity**: In 2025, the start - up rate of ethylene glycol increased, and production was at a high level in recent years. In 2026, new capacity is expected to expand, but the start - up rate and production growth rate may slow down [104][106]. - **Imports**: In 2025, ethylene glycol imports increased slightly. In 2026, the total import volume is expected to remain stable, but the import source proportion may change [114]. - **Inventory**: In 2025, ethylene glycol inventory increased at the end of the year. In 2026, the inventory pressure in the first half of the year is expected to be greater than that in the second half [115]. - **Supply - Demand Difference**: At the end of 2025, the ethylene glycol supply - demand difference showed a state of oversupply. In 2026, the supply pressure is expected to remain in the first half of the year and may improve in the second half, especially in the third quarter [121]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: In 2026, ethylene glycol prices may continue to bottom - out and fluctuate. There is an opportunity for price repair in the third quarter [124].

最近两个交易日，聚酯品种表现较强。本周五，PX和PTA期货主力合约开盘后增仓上行，双双创下近3个月以来的新高。 库存方面，12月PTA维持去库态势，1至2月聚酯开工负荷大概率季节性下降，有小幅累库预期，但整体累库压力明显偏低，短期基本面的稳健表现为行情 提供了有力支撑。 PTA2605 ▲ TA2605 期货 主力 夜盛 2.03% 74.24万 4992 振幅 高 메레 4980 4822 117.3万 4894 持仓 俱 昨结 158 3.28% 4896 +87088 开 今结 日增 l 相关ETF 2 能源化工 ETF 1.215 0.75% > 日K 周K 月K 五日 分时 更多。 0 均线 ▼ 日线 MA5:4792 10:4745 20:4754 30:4749 筹码 5028 4992-> 4873 4718 4563 L7 -4444 2025/10/20 2025/11/20 2025/12/22 其中，PX期货价格创下自3月以来的阶段高点，PTA期货价格成功突破年内高点4900元/吨。在当前原油和化工品市场整体表现偏弱的背景下，PX和PTA的 价格表现引发市场关注。 强预期成为行情"发动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ continued to increase production in 2025, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward pressure on international oil prices. Although production increase will be suspended in Q1 2026, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase later, and the decline in oil prices in 2026 is expected to narrow [5][11]. - The growth rate of production capacity and output of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain has slowed down, while demand will continue to show a slight growth trend, and the supply - demand relationship will improve. The low - price and low - profit operation situation of the industry will change, and the price center is expected to move up [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: In 2025, PX production decreased from February to April due to many device overhauls. From August to November, the operating rate was stable, and the cumulative production decline narrowed. The cumulative import volume increased slightly in the first 11 months. The supply - demand situation was good, with inventory decreasing from February to July and slightly increasing from August to September. The price fluctuated, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% as of early December [18][20]. - **PTA**: Three new PTA devices were put into operation from June to October, with a total capacity of 8.4 million tons/year. The average operating rate in the first 11 months decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared with last year, and the production growth rate was not high. The demand was good, especially from October to November. The social inventory decreased significantly, and the price showed a wide - range shock pattern, with a cumulative decline of about 4.5% as of December 11 [22][24]. - **MEG**: Three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation in 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 5.3%. The supply growth was mainly due to the increase in the operating rate. The inventory showed a process of de - stocking and re - stocking. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% [27][30]. - **Short Fiber**: There was no new device put into operation in 2025, and the production increased slightly compared with last year. The export growth rate was high, but the domestic consumption demand was weak. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of about 8% [32][34]. - **Bottle Chip**: The capacity expansion of bottle chips entered the end in 2025. Although the capacity growth rate slowed down, there was still a large supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the production increased by 6.7% in the first 11 months. The price showed a decline of 7 - 8%, and the profit was still poor [35][37]. II. Pay Attention to OPEC+'s Production Policy: Loose Crude Oil Supply is Hard to Resolve - **Suspension of Production Increase in Q1, Possible Resumption Later**: OPEC+ started to increase production from April 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.877 million barrels/day. It decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026, but there is a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026. The three major institutions have continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast, while the demand forecast is relatively stable, resulting in a loose supply situation [39][41]. - **The Expected Production Increase May Materialize, Still Having a Bearish Impact on Oil Prices**: The global crude oil supply is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Although the supply - demand imbalance is not obvious in the US crude oil data for now, it is expected to be reflected in the inventory data in 2026. The US oil and gas rig count decreased in 2025, but it did not have a significant impact on production. The international oil price was under pressure in 2025, and it is expected to be relatively strong in Q1 2026 but may be suppressed if production increase resumes [44][56]. III. Some Links in the Industry Chain Enter the Production Vacuum Period, and the Supply Growth Rate Will Significantly Decline - **Overall Slowdown in Capacity Growth Rate, Operating Rate Becoming the Key Factor Affecting Supply**: In 2025, there was no new PX device, and three new PTA devices and three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation. In 2026, the new PX devices are expected to have limited supply increments due to late commissioning. There is no PTA new device plan in 2026, and the supply pressure will be reduced. The PX operating rate has little room for improvement, while the PTA operating rate has the potential to increase [57][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol New Devices are Planned to be Put into Operation Late, and the Supply Growth Rate is Expected to Decline**: In 2025, the ethylene glycol capacity increased by 5.3%. In 2026, there are many new device plans, but most of them are planned to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a possible delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate increased in 2025, but the absolute value is not high. It is expected that the supply growth rate will decline in 2026 [72][81]. IV. Demand is Rising Steadily, and the Adverse Factors Affecting Demand are Weakening - **Steady Growth of Polyester Capacity, Good Demand Supporting High Operating Rate**: In 2025, the polyester capacity increased by 5.5%, and the operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points. The production increased by 7.6% in the first 11 months. It is expected that the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down [82][86]. - **Polyester Raw Material Inventory Shows Seasonal Fluctuations, and Ethylene Glycol Inventory Rises Rapidly**: The PTA inventory increased in the first quarter of 2025 and then decreased. In 2026, the supply growth mainly depends on the increase in the operating rate. The ethylene glycol inventory decreased from March to August and then increased rapidly from October to November. In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand situation will improve [90][93]. - **Profit Redistribution Will Still Occur, and the Industrial Chain Profits May Transfer to the Middle and Upper Reaches**: In 2025, the production profits of PTA and bottle chips were poor, while those of long - fiber and short - fiber were acceptable. In 2026, the short - fiber and bottle - chip capacities will increase, which will have a bearish impact on processing fees, but the bottle - chip production profit is expected to improve slightly [94][98]. - **The Base of Polyester Exports is High, and the Pressure for Further Growth Increases**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products increased year - on - year, with bottle chips having the largest export volume increase and short fibers having the highest export growth rate. The export destinations are relatively scattered. In 2026, the long - fiber may face inventory pressure, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is not large [99][109]. - **Industrial Demand is Boosted, and the Downstream Operating Indicators Will Increase**: The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn is basically the same as last year, while that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased. With the growth of demand and the slowdown of capacity growth, the operating rate and production efficiency of the industry are expected to improve [110]. V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - **The Growth Rate of Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel is Not High, and it Will Maintain a Low - Growth Trend**: In 2025, the growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales was low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel consumption was also low in the first half of the year but rebounded in the second half. The domestic textile and apparel consumption is expected to maintain a growth momentum [115][119]. - **The Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations is Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's exports maintained positive growth despite the severe external environment. The textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year, but it is expected to recover in 2026 [120][123]. VI. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In 2025, the continuous production increase of OPEC+ led to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward trend in oil prices. The prices of the polyester industry chain were affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with PX and PTA performing better than oil, and ethylene glycol being the weakest. The industrial chain profits were generally low, with PTA and bottle chips having poor profits [125][128]. - **Outlook**: In Q1 2026, the international oil price is expected to strengthen, but there is still pressure from production increase later. The supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually improve, with supply growth pressure easing and demand growing steadily. The industrial chain profits are expected to transfer from the downstream to PTA and PX, and the price center is expected to move up [129][131].