融 研 究 院 聚酯产业的供需发展 金 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 弘 业 期 货 01丨原料端的产能发展情况 02丨下游聚酯的产能发展情况 原料端的产能发展情况 聚酯产业链的产能发展 期 货 金 融 研 究 -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 2014年2015年2016年2017年2018年2019年2020年2021年2022年2023年2024年 聚酯产业链产能增速变化 MEG产能增速 PTA产能增速 聚酯产能增速 PX产能增速 | 业 | 2018年 | 2019年 | 2020年 | 2021年 | 2022年 | 2023年 | 22024年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX产能 | 1463 | 2103 | 2603 | 3208 | 3597 | 4367 | 4367 | | PX产能增速 | 0 | 43.75% | 23.78% | 23.24% | 12.13% | 21.41% | 0% | | ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——EG供需承压格局难改 2025/11/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3750-4200 | 15.19% | 26.4% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 14.65% | 37.0% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 13.86% | 23.8% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 10.84% | 27.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 【核心矛盾】 总体来看，乙二醇需求端变化不大，聚酯需求11月预计维持在91%附近，12月起随季节性走弱。近期供 应端装置意外较多，后续累库斜率有所缓和，在价格上与11月9日的周报观点一致，动力煤走势偏强的背景下 成本端支撑加强，表现为3900下方继续破位下跌难度变大。但长期来看，累库斜率放缓与兑现推迟均为节奏 问 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global crude oil supply is expected to be loose with an increasing surplus, while demand will gradually recover from November to December. The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand [10][33][36]. - In the polyester industry chain, anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side. Although demand was better than expected in October, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The low - profit situation of PTA and bottle chips may improve [10][112][113]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: The 200 - million - ton/year PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan was not fulfilled. The monthly average operating rate in October increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The consumption was still good in October. The price was mainly affected by crude oil, first falling and then rebounding [17][19]. - **PTA**: In late October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The monthly average operating rate increased slightly, and the social inventory continued to decline. The spot processing fee was very poor, falling below 100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **MEG**: Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant was put into production in October. The comprehensive operating rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased. The price performance was relatively weak [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate decreased slightly in late October. The demand was expected to remain weak, and the spot processing fee was generally acceptable. The price first fell and then rebounded, with a slight cumulative decline [27][29]. - **Bottle Chips**: The operating rate rebounded from a low level and then stabilized in October. The domestic demand decreased month - on - month, and the export declined from August to September. The spot processing fee fluctuated little, and the price increased slightly cumulatively [31]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production - **Supply Surplus Expectation Intensifies**: In October, eight OPEC member countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a cumulative increase of 2.74 million barrels per day. EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecast, and the supply surplus expectation intensified. Although the demand decreased seasonally, with the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut and other factors, the international crude oil price rebounded after a decline, with a small cumulative decline [33]. - **Demand Will Seasonally Recover**: The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand. The process of the seasonal decline in crude oil demand has basically been completed, and it will gradually recover from November to December [39][48]. 3. The Anti - Involution Narrative Resurfaces - **PTA New Plant Commissioning**: In October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The PTA processing fee was extremely low, which attracted the attention of the competent department. Anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side [51][63]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Tends to Be Loose**: The ethylene glycol operating rate remained at a high level in October, and the supply tended to be loose. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol declined continuously from August to October [64][68]. 4. Demand Is Better Than Expected but Still at Risk of Decline - **Polyester Operating Rate Rises Steadily**: In October, the polyester and loom operating rates increased slightly, showing the characteristic of "no off - season in the off - season". From January to September, the growth of polyester production mainly came from bottle chips, which drove the increase in the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [71][75]. - **PTA De - stocks and Ethylene Glycol Accumulates Stocks**: PTA social inventory continued to decline in October, while ethylene glycol port inventory increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to the expected decline in demand [76][80]. - **Polyester Profits Are Still Under Pressure**: In October, polyester profits first increased and then decreased. The spot processing fee of short fibers was at a relatively high level, and the profit of bottle chips was expected to improve [81][83]. - **Stable Export of Filament and Gradual Recovery of Bottle Chip Export**: From January to September, the exports of filament, bottle chips, and short fibers increased year - on - year. The export of bottle chips had the largest scale and increment, but there was a large pressure of year - on - year decline in single - month exports in the later stage [86][89]. - **Risk of Lagging Decline in Demand**: Although the demand in October was better than expected, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are expected to decline in the later stage [95][98]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Month - on - Month, but Exports Face Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Gradually**: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic consumption of textile and apparel was not high, but it improved month - on - month. The peak season is mainly in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation in the fourth quarter [104][105]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports May Recover from a Low Level**: From January to September, the cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased year - on - year. In October, Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease, which is conducive to the recovery of textile and apparel exports [108][109]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In October, OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the international crude oil price first fell and then rebounded. The prices of polyester industry chain products also showed a similar trend, with better performance than crude oil. The supply and demand of the polyester industry chain increased in October, but the profits were still not ideal [110][112]. - **Outlook**: From November to December, the international crude oil market has both positive and negative factors. The supply of the polyester industry chain is expected to contract along with the decline in demand. The profits of upstream and mid - stream products such as PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to improve [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upstream US crude oil inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks, geopolitical conflicts have fluctuating impacts, and there is no definite upward driver for oil prices. The medium - to - long - term expectation of crude oil surplus is hard to be falsified, resulting in insufficient cost support for PX and PTA [7]. - For each product in the polyester industry chain, there are different supply - demand situations and profit trends. For example, PX has a high - level profit and high - level operation expected in the fourth quarter, while PTA has a risk of inventory accumulation, and MEG's supply - demand is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: Upstream, oil price lacks upward drive, PX&PTA cost support is insufficient. PX has a back - structured spot floating price with changing monthly spreads, and its supply is abundant. PTA's social inventory has been rising, and there is a risk of further inventory accumulation. Trading strategies include going short at high prices, PTA15 reverse arbitrage, and option watching [7]. - **MEG**: After the holiday, port inventory increased significantly. Supply is expected to decrease in the second half of the month. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and selling call options [7]. - **PF**: Short - fiber factory inventory has no pressure, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, future demand lacks effective support. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, going long on processing fees, and option watching [7]. - **PR**: Bottle - chip processing fees are slightly stronger, but downstream demand may weaken. Trading strategies are going short at high prices, watching for arbitrage, and option watching [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - After the holiday, polyester's operation is stable, raw material prices fall, and processing fees rise slightly. Downstream transactions are okay, and there is support for replenishment demand [10]. - The start - up rate of polyester downstream in Jiangsu and Zhejiang first decreased and then increased after the holiday. The comprehensive start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 80%, 69%, and 78% respectively, with the latter two remaining unchanged week - on - week [12]. - The sales of polyester filament after the holiday are weak, and inventory has increased. The average inventory days of polyester filament after the holiday are 24.3 days, an increase of 5.1 days compared to before the holiday [15]. - The low - price transactions of polyester bottle - chips after the holiday are okay, and processing fees are slightly stronger. However, downstream demand may shift from peak to off - peak [19]. - The supply of short - fiber has decreased and demand has increased, and factory inventory has no pressure. But future demand may lack support [22]. 2.2 PX - After the holiday, PX's spot floating price has a back structure, and the monthly spread first widened and then narrowed [23]. - The naphtha cracking spread has weakened, and the profit of long - process PX devices has strengthened. PX's operation rate has slightly decreased this week, and it is expected to first increase and then decrease in Asia this month. The operation rate will remain high in the fourth quarter [25][27]. 2.3 PTA - Since late September, PTA's social inventory has been rising, and the basis and monthly spread remain weak [29]. - This week, the operation rate of PTA has increased. New devices are planned to be put into operation, and some devices are planned for maintenance. PTA's processing fee is undervalued [33]. 2.4 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - After the holiday, MEG's port inventory has increased significantly. Recently, the arrival of goods at the port has decreased, and the basis has strengthened in the second half of the week [34]. - The supply of MEG is expected to decrease in the second half of the month due to device maintenance [36]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price: The prices of PX and its related products in the industrial chain are presented, including PX, naphtha, etc. [47][48]. - Spreads and Profits: There are various spreads and profit data, such as PX - naphtha spreads, disproportionation - blending oil spreads and profits [50][54]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PX in China and Asia are provided, along with the relationship between PX supply and demand [60][61]. 3.2 PTA - Price: The prices of PTA and PX, as well as PTA's processing fees and internal - external spreads are shown [69][70]. - Spreads: The basis and monthly spreads of PTA are presented [73]. - Profits: The profits of PTA in different cost - calculation methods are provided [75]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rates of PTA and polyester are given, along with PTA's inventory situation [79][81]. 3.3 MEG - Price: The prices of MEG and its related raw materials are presented [83]. - Spreads: There are various spreads of MEG, such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads [85][89]. - Profits: The profits of MEG in different production methods are provided [94]. - Supply and Demand: The operating rate of MEG and its port inventory are given [100][102]. 3.4 Polyester - Profits: The weighted profit of polyester, the average profit of filament, short - fiber profit, etc. are provided [105]. - Supply: The operating rates of polyester, bottle - chip, filament, and short - fiber are given [107]. - Inventory: The inventory days of filament, short - fiber, etc. are provided [109]. - Demand: The operating rates of dyeing, weaving, and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, as well as export data and domestic consumption data are presented [112][120]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester industry chain continues to be weak due to a weak cost side. There is an imbalance between China's import demand and US exports after the National Day, along with increased Middle - East exports, leading to a supply - surplus situation. In the short term, the combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no obvious drivers for a rebound. PX, TA, and demand - side conditions all face various challenges, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - It's currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, and the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the progress. Also, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, 2025, discussing the "15th Five - Year Plan", studying the current economic situation, and planning the second - half economic work [1]. Market Analysis Cost Side - After the National Day, there is a significant gap between China's slowing import demand and the increasing US exports, combined with increased Middle - East exports, resulting in a supply - surplus situation. The combination of macro and fundamental factors is pressuring the fundamentals, with no signs of a rebound [2]. - PX: The PXN was 246 dollars/ton in the previous trading session (a 5.50 - dollar/ton increase from the previous period). China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level. With fewer PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some plants, PXN remains under pressure. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans after a significant compression of profits, so the PX supply - demand support is limited [2]. - TA: The TA main - contract spot basis was - 88 yuan/ton (a 3 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee was 106 yuan/ton (a 23 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period), and the main - contract on - screen processing fee was 307 yuan/ton (a 5 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The processing fee has been further compressed due to news of new plant launches. There are many near - term maintenance plans, so the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large. However, a new plant is expected to start production next week, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the cost - side support has weakened. The demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs [2]. Demand Side - The polyester operating rate was 91.4% (a 0.1% decrease from the previous period). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw - material procurement remains mostly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased again this week due to high tariffs. It's expected that the average polyester load in October can still be maintained above 91%, and there is still support from the cooling weather. Attention should be paid to whether bottle - chip production will restart when the processing fee recovers [3]. - PF: The spot production profit was 326 yuan/ton (an 18 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load remained stable. Due to the narrowing price gap in the market, the factory price advantage became prominent, and inventory decreased. The current factory inventory is low, and the quantity of goods held by traders has decreased. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing margin has expanded to over 1200. On the demand side, the production of pure - polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn was mostly stable, with some offering moderate discounts. Sales were average, inventory decreased slightly, and the load increased slightly [3]. - PR: The bottle - chip spot processing fee was 530 yuan/ton (an 11 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous period). Fundamentally, the bottle - chip load remained stable with a slight increase this week. Large factories generally maintained production cuts. The bottle - chip factory inventory decreased. As the processing efficiency improves, attention should be paid to whether the plant load will increase and the progress of new - capacity launches [3]. Strategy Single - Side Strategy - For PX/PTA/PF/PR, cautious short - selling hedging at high prices is recommended. Currently in the Sino - US trade war negotiation period, attention should be paid to the progress. For PX, China's PX operating rate has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, with fewer fourth - quarter maintenance plans and capacity expansion of some plants, weakening the fourth - quarter supply - demand support. For TA, there are many near - term maintenance plans, and the inventory - accumulation pressure is not large, but a new plant is expected to start production soon, and the inventory - accumulation pressure will gradually appear after November. The long - term outlook is weak, the market spot supply is abundant, and the demand side is not in the peak season due to tariffs. For PF, the demand has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has decreased to a low level. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw - material side, and the processing fee is expected to fluctuate strongly. For PR, the bottle - chip fundamentals have not changed much, maintenance continues, and the demand is average. The bottle - chip spot processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw - material price fluctuations [4]. Cross - Variety Strategy - Go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2512 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [4]. Cross - Period Strategy - PX/PTA2601 - 2605 reverse spread [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The polyester market is facing a complex situation. PTA shows weak performance due to the weak crude oil market, reduced domestic production, and unburgeoned demand. MEG prices are under pressure from domestic device production, while the port inventory remains low. The polyester industry is expected to operate weakly after the holiday season [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price dropped from 479.7 yuan/barrel on September 30, 2025, to 471.0 yuan/barrel on October 9, 2025, a decrease of 8.70 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC spread increased by 53.22 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio rose by 0.0214. PTA主力期价 decreased by 10.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price dropped by 35.0 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 59.7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 39.7 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单 quantity increased by 2604 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 5, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 7 [2]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased by 49.0 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased by 7.8 yuan/ton, and the MEG内盘 price decreased by 51.0 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain and Operation - **Operation Rate**: PX operation rate remained unchanged at 85.57%. PTA operation rate decreased by 2.97% to 75.70%, MEG operation rate increased by 1.83% to 64.05%, and polyester load increased by 0.58% to 89.38% [2]. - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price decreased by 55.0, POY cash flow decreased by 8.0. FDY150D/96F price decreased by 35.0, FDY cash flow increased by 12.0. DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and DTY cash flow increased by 47.0. The long - filament sales rate increased by 23% to 57% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased by 5, and the staple - fiber cash flow increased by 42.0. The staple - fiber sales rate decreased by 2% to 60% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price decreased by 35.0, chip cash flow increased by 12.0, and the chip sales rate increased by 17% to 72% [2]. Market Trends and Recommendations - **PTA**: During the National Day holiday, the crude oil price was weak, the PX market had few transactions, and the polyester downstream procurement was stagnant. A new cracking ethylene device in Shandong was put into operation, and domestic PTA production decreased. Due to the weak crude oil, PTA performance was weak [2]. - **MEG**: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China remained low, the arrival volume was limited, and the import from overseas markets was expected to decline. The domestic device production put pressure on the price. The polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased. After the holiday, the polyester market was expected to operate weakly [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA device in South China is restarting, which stopped around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA device increased its load after operating at a low load last week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PX and PTA continue to operate weakly due to weakened cost support and inventory accumulation pressure [1] - The price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, with POY potentially performing stronger due to low inventory [4] - Considering the supply, demand, and inventory situation, PX and PTA prices may continue to face downward pressure unless there is a sustained improvement in demand or supply - side maintenance and production cuts [38] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,570 yuan/ton, down 1.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 97 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,594 yuan/ton, down 1.25% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on September 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.77 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.18 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total transaction volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 865,670 meters [2] - The supply of PX and PTA is generally loose. The continuous weakening of the PX basis reflects the current oversupply pressure in the spot market. Although some domestic PX plants have short - term shutdowns and overhauls, the overall operating rate remains relatively high. For PTA, low processing fees have increased the factory's willingness to cut production, but the reduction of some plants under high inventory is insufficient to reverse the supply - demand pattern, and the supply pressure will continue with future new plant commissioning plans [2] - Downstream polyester demand shows signs of marginal weakening. The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City is mainly driven by short - term factors such as pre - holiday restocking. The 15 - day average trading data is still lower than the normal level in the peak season, and the terminal weaving orders show seasonal weakening signs. The polyester sector maintains rigid demand, but there is a risk of a decline in the operating rate under increasing inventory pressure, and the procurement demand for PTA may weaken marginally [3] - The PTA inventory structure continues the inventory accumulation trend. The current inventory days of PTA factories are flat month - on - month but still at a high absolute level, and the continuous accumulation of social inventory reflects the loose supply - demand pattern. Considering the incremental pressure brought by the commissioning of the new Fengming plant in October and the uncertainty of the sustainability of downstream restocking, the inflection point of inventory reduction has not appeared, and high inventory will continue to suppress the spot price and futures valuation [3] Polyester - On September 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,276 yuan/ton, down 0.95% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,405 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 129 yuan/ton [4] - The MA15 trading volume of China Light Textile City has continuously climbed from 760,000 meters to 865,670 meters. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber (6.36 days), polyester filament DTY (29.5 days), and FDY (25.7 days) are all higher than the average of the past 5 years, while the inventory days of POY (18.8 days) are lower than the 5 - year average of 20.4 days, indicating inventory reduction pressure for staple fiber and some filament varieties. Overall, driven by the downward trend of oil prices at the PX - PTA cost end and the slow recovery of demand, the price center of the polyester industry chain may shift downward, and POY may perform stronger due to low inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.50% to 6,570 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 5.68% to 189,612 lots, and the open interest decreased by 17.48% to 68,124 lots [5] - PX spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged at 816 US dollars/ton and 792 US dollars/ton respectively [5] - PTA futures: The main contract price decreased by 1.25% to 4,594 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.27% to 593,958 lots, and the open interest decreased by 2.50% to 964,348 lots [5] - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 613 US dollars/ton [5] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price decreased by 0.95% to 6,276 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 1.21% to 183,370 lots, and the open interest decreased by 19.97% to 93,016 lots [5] - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market decreased by 0.47% to 6,405 yuan/ton [5] - Other industrial chain prices such as Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged [5] - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of PTA increased by 1.13% to 189.3 yuan/ton, while others remained unchanged [6] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume increased by 17.93% to 1.23 million meters, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [6][9] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [6] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 11.05%, 8.74%, 10.76%, and 6.35% respectively [6] 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 30, gold broke through 3,830 US dollars, reaching new highs, and the value of the US gold reserve exceeded 1 trillion US dollars [7] - New York Fed President Williams supported interest rate cuts at the previous meeting due to signs of labor market weakness, estimating the real neutral interest rate at 0.75%; this year's voting member, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, is open to future interest rate cuts but advocates caution, expecting inflation to remain high in the next two to three quarters; Cleveland Fed President Hamerak continues to advocate a hawkish stance, saying that tight monetary policy needs to be maintained to curb inflation [7] - Switzerland plans to invest in the US gold refining industry in exchange for Trump's tariff reduction [7] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, with Israel to withdraw troops in stages, not occupy or annex Gaza; a peace committee chaired by Trump will be established, and Israel has accepted the plan while Hamas will review it [7] - On September 29, Richmond Fed President Barkin said that upcoming data will determine whether the Fed should further cut interest rates; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supports the Fed holding only treasury bonds and believes it is appropriate to ignore the one - time impact of tariffs [7] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month; from January to August, the year - on - year increase was 0.9% [7] Supply - Demand - Demand - On September 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 1.23 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 17.93%, with long - fiber fabric trading volume at 927,000 meters and short - fiber fabric trading volume at 304,000 meters [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX and PTA main futures and basis, PTA futures monthly spreads, short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product inventory days, etc [10][12][14] 5. Appendix: Big Model Inference Process - On September 30, PX and PTA main contracts declined by 1.5% and 1.25% respectively. The decline in crude oil prices may affect upstream costs. The trading volume of Light Textile City on that day was 1.23 million meters, with a 15 - day average of 865,670 meters, indicating possible fluctuations in recent demand [37] - On the supply side, the negative PX basis may indicate sufficient spot supply or inventory accumulation pressure, and there may be some plant restarts. For PTA, the basis has turned from negative to positive, but the inventory has not changed significantly, and the supply pressure may increase as factories maintain high operating rates under low profits. Attention should be paid to new plant commissioning or overhaul plans [37] - On the demand side, the sudden increase in the trading volume of Light Textile City, but with a daily average of 865,000 meters, may show short - term restocking or temporary order increases in the downstream, but the overall improvement of the textile industry is uncertain. If the polyester operating rate remains high, it may support PTA demand; otherwise, there may be inventory accumulation risks [37] - In terms of inventory, the PTA factory inventory days are at a medium level, but the social inventory has increased compared with last week. If downstream demand cannot be sustained, inventory may continue to accumulate, especially if the supply side maintains a high operating rate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes in the next few weeks [38] - Overall, the decline in crude oil prices may reduce the costs of PX and PTA, but PX supply is sufficient and PTA supply pressure is high; the short - term demand is strong but its sustainability is uncertain; inventory has begun to accumulate. Therefore, PX and PTA prices may continue to be under downward pressure unless there is a continuous improvement in demand or supply - side overhauls and production cuts [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply is expected to be abundant, with the surplus continuously expanding. In the fourth quarter, global crude oil demand will first decline and then rebound. Given the overall loose supply, the short - term decline in demand may have a more significant negative impact on crude oil prices. Even if demand rises in December, global crude oil supply will still be in a surplus state [9]. - In the polyester industry chain, both the cost side and industrial demand will face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, but supply is also expected to decline accordingly, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in supply may be more obvious than that in demand. The spot production profits of various polyester industry chain products are generally low. Therefore, during the traditional off - season of demand, the price performance of the polyester industry chain may not be poor, and it is expected to show a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rebounded and then declined, with a slight cumulative decrease and a weak trend. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil. In July, prices generally rebounded, and from August to September, they declined. In August - September, the demand of the polyester industry increased slightly, and the operating rates of PX and PTA rose in September, showing a pattern of double - growth in supply and demand. Coupled with the weak operation of the cost side, prices continued to fall in the first half of September. In late September, due to the rebound of international oil prices, the prices of related products in the polyester industry chain generally rebounded from low levels, while the price of ethylene glycol was weak [15]. - **PX**: The operating rate was low in July but showed a continuous upward trend from August to September, reaching the highest level this year in mid - September. In late August, the planned maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons/year PX unit was postponed, and other maintenance units restarted, causing the operating rate to rise instead of fall. In August, PX imports increased month - on - month, reaching the highest single - month level this year. From June to August, new PTA units were put into operation, but the new PTA units had limited short - term impact on boosting PX consumption. In September, the PTA operating rate increased slightly, but the operating level was lower than the same period last year, and the change in PX demand was not obvious [16]. - **PTA**: The operating rate was generally stable in July, significantly declined in August due to many unit overhauls, and increased slightly in September. The spot processing fee of PTA was continuously low in the third quarter, and the enthusiasm of factories for production was not high. In September, multiple overhauled PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased month - on - month compared with August. In July, PTA supply was stable, but demand weakened due to the continuous decline of the polyester operating rate, and social inventory increased. In August, due to the decline of the PTA operating rate, although the polyester operating rate was at a low level, PTA social inventory decreased slightly. In September, with the increase of both the PTA operating rate and the polyester operating rate, the overall situation was a double - growth pattern of supply and demand, and the change in PTA social inventory was not significant [20][21]. - **MEG**: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol increased steadily in the third quarter. In mid - August, the operating rate decreased significantly but quickly recovered. The domestic ethylene glycol output was generally stable at a high level in the third quarter. The consumption of ethylene glycol was relatively stable. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu and Zhejiang only increased slightly in early August. At the beginning of September, the inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell below 400,000 tons, reaching a new low this year and lower than the same period in previous years. The price of ethylene glycol rose continuously in July, fluctuated narrowly in August, and declined continuously in September [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate of short fiber was relatively stable in the third quarter, and the monthly output from July to August was basically the same. The operating rate of pure polyester yarn decreased less than last year in the third quarter, but the increase during the recovery stage was also weak, and the current operating level was lower than the same period last year. The short - fiber market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand in the first eight months, with weaker demand being more obvious. The spot processing fee of short fiber fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, generally rising in July, falling in August, and rising again in September [25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The operating rate of polyester bottle chips began to decline in late May, remained at a low level from early July to the end of August, and then increased slightly but was still relatively low. From a seasonal perspective, the domestic demand for bottle chips was generally stable from July to August, and bottle - chip exports decreased month - on - month in August, reaching the lowest single - month level since March. The spot processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly continuously in July and then fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The spot price of bottle chips generally oscillated downward in the third quarter, and the closing price of the main contract fluctuated. The basis of bottle chips decreased continuously from July to August and increased slightly in September, with the futures and spot prices at par [30]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production, Intensifying the Expectation of Supply Surplus - **EIA Keeps Raising Crude Oil Supply Forecasts, and the Expectation of Supply Growth Continues**: In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In July, supported by the expectation of the peak demand season, international crude oil prices were strong. However, due to OPEC+'s continuous decisions to increase crude oil production at each monthly meeting, the global crude oil supply surplus is expected to intensify. Since April, OPEC+ has gradually lifted the voluntary production - cut plan and made monthly decisions to increase crude oil production. From July to September, OPEC meetings continued the production - increase policy. Affected by OPEC+'s continuous production increase, EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for three consecutive months from June to September, with the largest increase in the August EIA report [32]. - **Seasonal Fluctuation of Demand, with Overall Loose Supply**: The supply and demand of international crude oil are relatively loose, but from the statistical data of the US crude oil, the supply surplus is not obvious. The number of US oil and gas rigs is still hovering at the bottom. As of September 26, 2025, the number of US oil and gas rigs was 549, including 424 crude oil rigs, which rebounded from a low level but was still low. The latest weekly US crude oil production data showed that as of the week of September 19, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, which generally increased slightly from August to September and was at a relatively high level, but significant growth was difficult. The consumption of crude oil has two peak seasons due to the US summer travel peak and winter heating demand. The seasonal changes in global crude oil demand are basically synchronized with those in the US. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of US refineries first increased and then decreased, and was higher than the same period last year for most of the time. After mid - September, the refinery operating rate showed a downward trend, and October is usually a period when the refinery operating rate performs poorly. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, with no obvious trend, and is currently near the annual low. It is expected to continue to rise in October. The strategic reserve inventory has been gradually increasing slightly since November 2023. The US gasoline inventory decreased rapidly from July to August, generally higher than the same period last year, and the decline rate slowed down in September. With the continuous decline of the capacity utilization rate of US refineries, the US gasoline inventory will resume the continuous decline trend in October [38][40][41]. 3. Supply of Mid - upstream Products in the Industry Chain is Stable, and Low Profits Still Affect the Supply Side - **PX and PTA Operating Rates Fluctuate Repeatedly, and PTA New Units are Gradually Put into Production**: As of now, there are no new PX production units this year. From June to August, two new PTA units were put into production, and in May, a new ethylene glycol unit was put into production. There are still plans to put new PTA and ethylene glycol units into production by the end of the year. The PX operating rate was relatively low in July due to unit overhauls, and increased continuously from August to September. In the fourth quarter, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX units are planned for maintenance. The PTA operating rate increased slightly in July and then was generally stable, but there were still many overhauls in August. In September, some PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased slightly. In the fourth quarter, there are plans to overhaul multiple PTA units. From January to August 2025, China's PX production decreased year - on - year, imports increased, and the supply decreased slightly year - on - year. PX consumption increased year - on - year. PTA exports decreased year - on - year, and the spot processing fee was poor in the third quarter [49][50][53]. - **Ethylene Glycol Operating Rate Increases Steadily, and the Operating Condition of Coal - based Ethylene Glycol is Better than Expected**: In May 2025, the first - phase 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Sichuan Zhengdakai was successfully commissioned, and the ethylene glycol capacity increased slightly. According to the new unit commissioning plan, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 1 million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit may be put into production in October. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate increased steadily in the third quarter, with only a short - term decline in mid - August. From January to August 2025, China's ethylene glycol production and imports increased, and the supply increased significantly year - on - year. The profit of oil - based ethylene glycol was better than last year, showing a narrow - range fluctuation, and the theoretical calculation of oil - based ethylene glycol production was still in a loss state. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was generally good but declined significantly in the third quarter [62][64][67]. 4. The Demand of the Industry Chain in the Fourth Quarter is High at First and then Low, with Overall Insipid Demand - **The Demand for Textile Raw Materials in the Traditional Peak Season is Weak, and the Demand for Bottle Chips will Continue to Weaken**: Since 2025, new units of filament, bottle chips, and film have been put into production. The polyester capacity has increased slightly this year, with bottle - chip capacity accounting for the majority. In the third quarter, the demand for textile raw materials was in the stage of turning from off - season to peak season, showing the characteristics of an off - season that is not off and a peak season that is not peak. From January to August 2025, China's polyester production increased year - on - year, mainly driven by bottle - chip production. The increase in polyester production drove up the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [70][71][76]. - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol May Accumulate Inventory, and the Supply Side will Determine Inventory Changes**: The PTA social inventory reached a phased high in late February this year and then gradually declined from March to early July. In the third quarter, the overall change was not significant. In September, it changed from continuous inventory reduction in August to slight inventory accumulation. The ethylene glycol port inventory in the third quarter generally showed a downward - oscillating trend. In October - November, the demand for polyester raw materials is expected to weaken, and ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory [81][82]. - **Polyester Profits are Weak, and the Profit Situation is Still under Pressure in the Demand Downturn Stage**: The processing fees of various polyester products are affected by capacity growth, supply - demand contradictions, and seasonal demand changes. In the third quarter, the profit situation of major polyester products was not ideal. In the fourth quarter, the demand of the industry chain will face the pressure of weakening again, and it is difficult for the production profits of filament and other products to continue to improve [83][85]. - **The Inventory Pressure of Filament is Not High, and There is a Downward Pressure on Bottle - Chip Exports**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and short fiber increased year - on - year, with bottle chips and short fiber having higher export growth rates. The export volume of bottle chips increased the most in absolute terms. However, in the fourth quarter, the domestic demand for bottle chips is in the traditional off - season, and exports are expected to decline month - on - month, and the trend of bottle - chip processing fees is still not optimistic. The filament inventory fluctuated greatly this year, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure in October - November. The short - fiber inventory has generally shown a downward trend since mid - February, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [91][93][97]. - **The Seasonal Change in Demand Weakens, and the Off - Season May Not Be Off**: Filament and short fiber in polyester products are greatly affected by the off - peak seasons of textile raw material demand. From August to September, the operating rates of filament and short fiber did not increase significantly, showing the characteristics of a peak season that is not peak. In October, demand will turn weak, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms can reflect the demand changes of short fiber and filament. The operating rate of looms increased to near the highest level this year as of September 26, but it will decline again in late October. The production of yarn and grey cloth is still weak this year, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in October - November [102][104][107]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel will Gradually Improve, but Exports are under Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Enters the Peak Season, but the Overall Performance is Not Ideal**: In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased, but the year - on - year growth rate gradually declined from June to August, and the recovery of domestic consumption was unstable. In August 2025, the domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than that of the overall retail market from June to July. Domestic textile and apparel consumption shows obvious seasonal fluctuations, and the peak season is mainly in the second half of the year. It is necessary to pay attention to the domestic textile and apparel consumption in the fourth quarter [108][113]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports are under Downward Pressure, and the Decline in Apparel Exports is More Obvious**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export amount increased year - on - year. However, the US tariff policy adjustment is still increasing, and the Sino - US trade environment is difficult to improve substantially. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased slightly year - on - year, with textile exports increasing and apparel exports decreasing. In July - August, China's apparel exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the peak export volume this year occurred in June instead of August as in previous years [114][115][117]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In the third quarter, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production at monthly meetings, and EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the supply surplus scale expanding. International crude oil prices oscillated downward during the peak consumption season in the third quarter, with a small cumulative decline. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil, and the overall performance was weaker than that of crude oil. The profits of the industry chain were still not ideal, with the profits of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declining significantly in the third quarter, and the profits of filament, short fiber, and bottle chips rebounding from a low level but still remaining low [118]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the international crude oil market will face a transformation where demand first drops rapidly and then rebounds. Under the expectation of supply surplus, the market may be more sensitive to the decline in demand. If OPEC+ continues the policy of continuous production increase, the international crude oil supply surplus situation will further intensify. The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in the fourth quarter, but the effect of interest - rate cuts on boosting the expectation of crude oil demand is limited. In the polyester industry chain, the demand will be generally weak in the fourth quarter, especially in October when it enters the off - season of textile raw material demand, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. Due to the low profits across the entire industry chain, supply is also expected to decline when demand falls. In October, both crude oil and the polyester industry chain demand are expected to weaken, and the prices of industry - chain products will face downward pressure, but it is expected that the supply side will also make adjustments, entering a state of double - reduction in supply and demand. In December, as crude oil demand gradually recovers, the downward pressure on oil prices will ease, and the prices of the polyester industry chain are expected to rebound, showing a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter. In terms of industry - chain profits, the profits of mid - upstream products PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declined in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, industry - chain profits are expected to shift from downstream to mid - upstream products [119][120].

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is facing significant challenges due to price volatility across the supply chain, but the integration of futures and options is fundamentally changing the landscape by providing companies with tools to manage costs and stabilize profits [1][2][3] Group 1: Impact of Derivatives on Cost Management - Futures and options help companies lock in processing fees and control raw material costs, allowing them to focus on technology development and market expansion rather than engaging in price wars [1] - Companies can utilize hedging strategies, such as selling futures to secure prices and profits for inventory, which mitigates the risk of production losses when market prices decline [1][2] Group 2: Pricing Logic and Market Efficiency - The introduction of a basis pricing model, which combines futures prices with spot adjustments, has improved pricing efficiency in the polyester supply chain, reducing information asymmetry and enhancing price discovery [2] - This new pricing mechanism allows upstream and downstream companies to operate more efficiently, with better capacity utilization and reduced risks of overpaying for raw materials [2] Group 3: Risk Management and Industry Integration - The development of a comprehensive risk management framework through futures and options has led to a more integrated and collaborative industry structure, with tools available for managing risks from raw materials to finished products [2][3] - Leading companies are leveraging derivatives to enhance their operational efficiency and drive collaboration across the supply chain, thereby increasing the overall resilience of the industry [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The reliance on derivatives is shifting from being an optional strategy to a necessity for stability and competitiveness in the polyester industry, indicating a move towards more stable and higher-quality growth [3]

Report Title - Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report - EG's explicit inventory continues to decline, and the price fluctuates strongly [1] Core View - Ethylene glycol's supply and demand have both increased recently, but it is mainly within expectations, and there is no obvious driving force in terms of fundamentals. The short - term sentiment of the chemical industry is expected to remain strong. Although the ethylene glycol market is in a cumulative inventory trend, the inventory increase expectation has been well - traded, and it is difficult to compress the valuation. With the combination of low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, ethylene glycol is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend. Operationally, it is advisable to go long on pullbacks within the range. In the medium - to - long - term, the performance of the downstream polyester peak season needs to be observed, and long positions can be hedged by selling near - month out - of - the - money call options [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Other Key Points Polyester Price Range Forecast | Product | Price Range Forecast (Monthly) | Current Volatility (20 - day Rolling) | Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ethylene Glycol | 4300 - 4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500 - 7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400 - 5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | Bottle Chip | 5800 - 6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Scenario Analysis | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Inventory Management | High finished - product inventory, worried about ethylene glycol price decline | Long | Short ethylene glycol futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs; buy put options to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options to reduce capital costs | EG2601, EG2510P4400, EG2510C4600 | Sell, Buy, Sell | 25%, 50% | 4550 - 4700, 10 - 20, 30 - 70 | | Procurement Management | Low regular procurement inventory, want to purchase according to orders | Short | Buy ethylene glycol futures to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops | EG2601, EG2510P4400 | Buy, Sell | 50%, 75% | 4350 - 4450, 30 - 50 | [2] 利多解读 1. South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity per year, which may impact ethylene glycol's raw material supply and ethylene - based production costs [4] 2. The planned arrival this week is 9.851 million tons, relatively low, and the port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons next Monday, which will further tighten spot liquidity [6] 3. The loom load has continued to increase slightly recently. As the terminal autumn and winter orders start in September and foreign trade orders have recovered, the demand and downstream sentiment have improved marginally, and the loads of filament and staple fiber are expected to continue to increase [6] 利空解读 - The supply side of oil and coal has both increased, and the total load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%). Among them, the ethylene - based production load has increased, and the coal - based production load has risen to 81.25% (+0.78%). Next week, some plants have maintenance and restart plans, and the total load is expected to continue to increase [7] Price and Spread Data - The report provides price data for various products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc., including daily and weekly changes, as well as spread data between different contracts and processing fee data [10][11]