Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela will lead to a short - term geopolitical risk premium in international crude oil prices, but in the long - term, it will have a bearish impact on oil prices due to the expected increase in supply. [10] - The impact on the asphalt market depends on the actual degree and duration of the supply interruption of Venezuelan crude oil, and it is expected that asphalt prices will rise in the medium - to - short - term. [14] - The impact on the lithium carbonate market is relatively small, and its price trend in 2026 mainly depends on the global supply - demand fundamentals. [18] - The geopolitical conflict has a limited impact on the total global energy supply but may cause local shortages. It may also increase the export of domestic chemical products and reshape the global trade and logistics pattern. [19] - The conflict may promote the growth of the coal - chemical industry's demand, and has a certain positive impact on the sentiment of the coking coal futures market. [27] 3. Summary by Directory PART 01: Geopolitical Conflict's Impact on the Energy and Chemical Industry Impact on Crude Oil - The conflict will cause a short - term geopolitical risk premium of $3 - 5 per ton in international crude oil prices. In the long - run, due to the large - scale global supply surplus and the US intention to increase investment in Venezuelan oil production, it will suppress oil prices. [10] Impact on Asphalt - The conflict may lead to supply risks and cost shocks in the raw material end of asphalt production. The final impact on the asphalt market depends on multiple factors, and the medium - to - short - term price is expected to rise. [14] Impact on Lithium Carbonate - The direct impact of the event on lithium carbonate is small. The price trend in 2026 mainly depends on global supply and demand, especially the growth of energy storage demand. [18] Impact on Major Chemical Products - **Cost and Demand**: The conflict has a limited impact on the total global energy supply, may cause local shortages, and the impact degree varies among different chemical products. It may also lead to an increase in the export of domestic chemical products and a rise in logistics costs. [19] - **Global Economy and Trade Pattern**: The US action intensifies geopolitical tensions, disrupts the global industrial chain and supply chain, and reshapes the global trade and logistics pattern. [19] Impact on Methanol and Urea - **Methanol**: With the supply - decrease and demand - increase expectation, the methanol price is expected to be volatile and bullish. [22] - **Urea**: The international fertilizer price is expected to rise, which may further increase China's export price. The domestic urea price is also expected to be bullish. [24] PART 02: Geopolitical Conflict's Impact on the Coking Coal Industry - The conflict may promote the growth of coal - chemical industry demand. The demand for chemical coal, especially high - calorific - value chemical coal, is expected to increase. Although the direct impact on coking coal futures is limited, it has a positive impact on market sentiment. [27]